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Windows Operating Systems Software Microsoft

Microsoft Expects 1 Billion Windows Users by 2010 480

Posted by CmdrTaco from the a-third-of-those-will-be-spam-slaves dept.
prostoalex writes "The head of Microsoft Windows client division claimed there will be 1 billion Windows users by 2010, while nowadays there are 600 million of them, Microsoft-Watch reports. 35% of Microsoft's enterprise customers are still running Windows 9x and they are ripe for upgrade. Currently Microsoft's desktop PC market share is at 96%, with the closest rival - MacOS from Apple Computer - being installed on 2.8% of the desktops."
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Microsoft Expects 1 Billion Windows Users by 2010 More

Microsoft Expects 1 Billion Windows Users by 2010

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  • New Headline (Score:4, Funny)

    by BigDork1001 ( 683341 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:15AM (#9684612) Homepage
    1 Billionth Windows Virus Expected By 2010.

    • Re:New Headline (Score:5, Funny)

      by Digz ( 90264 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:49AM (#9684926)
      Wall Street, NY - In a surprise move, Microsoft (MSFT [yahoo.com]) announced today that they have reached their virus targets ahead of schedule. The company had formerly predicted the one billionth Windows virus by 2010, but were pleased to surprise investors with the news that the goal had been reached five years early.

      "Woohoooooo!!!!! We did it!!! We finally did one thing that didn't have to be delayed several times!!!" said Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer while running around his office. "Eat that, you Linux zealots!"

      Microsoft was founded in 1975, and has become the largest software company in the world.

    • Actually, the 1 Billionth Windows Virus came out a few years ago.
      I believe it was called W32:Bllnth.vrs@ms

  • hmmm (Score:5, Funny)

    by Beaker1 ( 624539 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:15AM (#9684615) Homepage
    Maybe they should get one of those signs like McDonalds used to have: "over 1 billion served!"

  • Bravado (Score:5, Insightful)

    by treehouse ( 781426 ) * on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:16AM (#9684619)
    As they say, predictions are difficult, especially about the future. What we have here is either bravado or, at best, a marketing goal. Lots of thunder and very little rain. What it's doing in ./ other than as a troll, I don't know.

    • Re:Bravado (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Otter ( 3800 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:25AM (#9684713) Journal
      As they say, predictions are difficult, especially about the future. What we have here is either bravado or, at best, a marketing goal. Lots of thunder and very little rain.

      Actually, it doesn't strike me as a particularly grandiose goal -- a 2/3 increase in worldwide computers over the next six years, and more less hanging on to their market share? Not hitting that seems like it would be bigger news.

      • Aren't they publically having dfficulties in emerging markets? Still if I was in China or whatever and someone said to me Windows XP or house, food for 10 years and Linux i'd pick the second option...

      • Re:Bravado (Score:5, Insightful)

        by EpsCylonB ( 307640 ) <.moc.bnolycspe. .ta. .spe.> on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:53AM (#9684959) Homepage
        Actually, it doesn't strike me as a particularly grandiose goal -- a 2/3 increase in worldwide computers over the next six years, and more less hanging on to their market share? Not hitting that seems like it would be bigger news.

        When your market share is 96% it is difficult to be too optimistic about growth.

        • Re:Bravado (Score:3, Insightful)

          by dasmegabyte ( 267018 )
          Especially when your biggest rival requires a completely new computer and all new software and relies on your company for its productivity suite. And the upstart in third place requires a massive new body of knowledge to perform simple tasks like installing an IM client or printing a document.

    • Re:Bravado (Score:5, Funny)

      by isorox ( 205688 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:28AM (#9684738) Homepage Journal
      predictions are difficult, especially about the future.

      As opposed to the other kind of predictions?

    • Re:Bravado (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Tim C ( 15259 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:53AM (#9684965)
      What it's doing in ./ other than as a troll, I don't know.

      Two things:

      * generating page impressions and therefore ad impressions
      * giving everyone something else to point and laugh at about MS

      Meanwhile, MS are taking OSS seriously and working to maitain (or regain, if you prefer) the upper hand.

      Move on people, nothing to see here; your time would be better spent working to prevent this prediction from coming true, if that's your preference.

  • The MacDonald's of Operating Systems? (Score:4, Funny)

    by Aardpig ( 622459 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:17AM (#9684627)

    1 billion sold -- but poor quality, dangerous for your health, and leaves a bad taste in your mouth?

    • 1 billion sold -- but poor quality, dangerous for your health, and leaves a bad taste in your mouth?

      Another McDonald's comparison - on the Win2K login screen it says something like "Ctrl+Alt+Del helps keep your computer more secure."
      First time I read that I thought it was like McDonalds claiming the lettuce in the Big Mac helps keep you more healthy... ...which I think they do.

    • Re:The MacDonald's of Operating Systems? (Score:4, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @09:48AM (#9686116)
      In other news, Linux is a meal at a soup kitchen. Don't like it? You're more than welcome to volunteer to make food for all the other freeloaders.

      I'll just eat this Apple, thanks.

  • Legal? (Score:5, Funny)

    by Martigan80 ( 305400 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:18AM (#9684637) Journal
    Is that 1 Billion LEGAL users?
    • Is that 1 Billion LEGAL users?

      Oh come on now, let's not concern ourselves with trivialities. Sure, there's only 250 million legitimately shipped versions of Windows and 600 million users, but hey, did we mention we have 600 million users!? ;-)

    • Double-Counting? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Chazmati ( 214538 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:29AM (#9684751)
      Do you think they adjust for all the PC's sold with a licensed copy of Windows, then wiped and imaged with a corporate version of Windows that's separately licensed? I think every PC I've seen at work has a Windows product sticker on it, but it doesn't match the actual version installed.
  • 2010... is that when they are releasing Longhorn?

    -m

  • Users or installations (Score:5, Interesting)

    by danormsby ( 529805 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:19AM (#9684652) Homepage
    So is that 1 billion users or installations?

    If users how many of those users will also be Linux/Mac users?

    Maybe someone familiar with set theory can comment here?

    • A clue is in the article, where they state the fact that 35% or corporate desktops are still running Windows 9x as support for their theory. They are clearly talking about 400 million sales over the next 6 years, and if some of them are upgrades from the 600 million they have already counted, then they are going to get counted twice.
  • These numbers point out out just how little penetration into the market MS actually has. 600 million users is only 10% of the 6 billion potential users out there. Most of these potential users are not very interested in paying a "computing tax" to a US corporation.

    Of course, they probably won't have to pay, since many of these countries are fairly lax about copyright laws. In order to really get Linux, the People's OS, out to them it would probably be a good idea to petition their governments to *fo

    • You are counting the entire population of the world as potential Microsoft users. This includes infants and children, prisoners, the infirm elderly, and hosts of others categories of people that are not in any way, shape, or form currently potential users.

      By any measure, a product in use by 1 out of every 10 people in the population of the *entire world* is an amazing penetration, especially for a high-tech product that is financially out of the reach of a majority of the worlds population.
    • 600 million users is only 10% of the 6 billion potential users out there.
      6 billion potential users? Last time I checked, most of the world's population didn't even have electricity or running water. Maybe Linux developers need to target that market!

  • Is the interesting claim (Score:5, Interesting)

    by orin ( 113079 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:21AM (#9684680)
    Perhaps the interesting claim here is that there will be over a billion computers currently in use in the world (one computer for every seven or people). That is, assuming that 96% figure is correct.

    Doesn't one billion PCs sound a little high considering that the vast majority of the world's population doesn't have access to a telephone?

  • Elephant (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Nadsat ( 652200 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:21AM (#9684681) Homepage
    Another MS prediction based on propaganda. Like the Gus Van Sant film, makes me wonder if they see the elephant.

    Unplug the mainframe, and 500 little peer to peer servers emerge.

    What this article neglects to indicate is, ironically, Fear, Unvertainty, and Doubt. Open source. MS only sees FUD when it is convenient!

    tell me I am wrong. Afraid or uncertain that I right?! Ha!

  • Winds of Change (Score:5, Insightful)

    by ciryon ( 218518 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:21AM (#9684684) Journal
    Allthough I can't quote any scientific studies or reports I can FEEL something is changing. Everywhere around me people are throwing out Windows, replacing it with Mac OS X or Linux. Internet Explorer is slowly losing market share. A general awareness of alternative platforms is beginning to progress. There have been so much talk in the media about the insecurity of Windows and how other operatingsystems don't have these problems. I really really doubt there will be one billion Windows users by 2010.

    • Re:Winds of Change (Score:5, Interesting)

      by int19 ( 778341 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:38AM (#9684837)
      Agreed. A few months ago my not-so-computer literate brother came to me asking me to install Linux for him; he had just gotten screwed around by some spyware or some such. He had never really used it before. Now he uses it for everything except the odd video game.

      My father switched to Mozilla sometime last year without prompting from me.

      Just two small examples.. But it's true; awareness is slowly coming around. It will be interesting to see just how far it goes, especially in light of the recent browser issues.

    • Re:Winds of Change (Score:4, Insightful)

      by mst76 ( 629405 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:43AM (#9684878)
      I'll start to believe when the Google Zeitgeist [google.com] shows more than 5% for Mac or Linux. I've watched that page for quite some time now, and the only large shifts I've seen has been from one Windows version to another.

      • Re:Winds of Change (Score:3, Interesting)

        by BigRedFish ( 676427 )

        the only large shifts I've seen has been from one Windows version to another.

        *nods* But I feel the change coming too. If Longhorn is really going require the purchase of a new (cripple-chipped) computer, while simultaneously breaking backward-compatibility with all existing software, it gives the competitors a hell of an opening.

        And really, I don't know anyone who's planning to move to Longhorn. I run Slack for all real work, and just keep the old Windows partition around for SimCity 4 [and if

      • Re:Winds of Change (Score:3, Interesting)

        by dasmegabyte ( 267018 )
        Also, keep in mind many Windows users don't use Google. They use MSN, because that's what's there when they bought the PC.

        But don't let my anecdotal evidence override that of all the k-rad Linux users who installed Linux on their four year old's speak and spell. "Winds of Change," ha. Geeks blowing through straws can't fill the sails of industry. Nor should we care! So long as WE can use Linux on our servers and projects, who CARES if other people have Windows? Who cares about viruses we don't get?
    • Slashdotters tend to say things like this. "I just FEEL something changing!" Well, that's because you visit Slashdot everyday, read posts day after day criticizing Microsoft, and form your perspectives based on the headlines posted on Slashdot. Yeah, if I did that, I can imagine I'd "feel" something changing too, because human perceptions are easy to shape.

      You say everywhere around you people are throwing out Windows, which is either not true or means you have very techie friends. You claim Internet Ex

  • No hard evidence here (Score:5, Insightful)

    by grunt107 ( 739510 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:22AM (#9684689)
    The report does not say where these extra 400 million are coming from. I doubt China would embrace MS, with "Red Flag" their pretty puppy.

    Short of the smaller emerging countries, which seem to embrace non-MS more often than not, India seems the only place likely being targeted.

    Interestingly, the one fact they report - 35% of users in Win9x/NT - would be a perfect focal point for an all-out Linux/Mac ad blitz (whoever wants it the most). That would take over 200 million away from their current base.
    • Win9x being a third of their base, it boogles the mind .

      That crashing piece of dung drove me batty, ppl have to have seen
      how much more stable a Win2k box is than Win9x .

      A DOS base OS is just not good enough .

      What is hard to believe though is alot of ppl think XP is just
      as stable as Win2k, when it is not, not by a longshot .

      My 2 cents !

      Ex-MislTech

  • meh (Score:2, Funny)

    by taromn ( 796346 )
    I think that by the time Windows gets 1 billion users, all the geeks here at Slashdot would of had hot steamy sex, including me.

  • yeah!!! (Score:4, Insightful)

    by chef_raekwon ( 411401 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:23AM (#9684700) Homepage
    yeah! who cares? until companies stop buying windows for their pcs - this won't change. I'm an admin for Solaris and Linux -- and I have to use Windows on my laptop....(managed desktop) something to do with exchange something or other...

    so we make do with exceed, scrt and putty. poor windows.
  • The slashdot headline says "1 billion users" and my first thought was "what about all the servers, surely there are a significant number of non-windoze servers out there? (more than 4% of the total surely?) but no, the article does actually state "1 billion windoze pcs" rather than 1 billion users.

    Shurley Shome Misteak?

    Where do all the claims that unix/linux based Apache webservers rule the internet come from? surely there#s SOME truth to them?

    I fear this is more marketing hype and FUD from microsoft. Ma

  • Translation: (Score:2, Funny)

    by kfg ( 145172 )
    35% of Microsoft's enterprise customers are still running Windows 9x and they are ripe for upgrade.

    We'll be sending Guido around to make them an offer they can't refuse.

    KFG
    • We'll be sending Guido around to make them an offer they can't refuse.

      Guido's gonna install a pirat^H^H^H^H^H "family" copy of XP? ;)

  • Prediction: sun to rise... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by SlowMovingTarget ( 550823 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:29AM (#9684758) Homepage

    All the article really says is that Microsoft expects all those myriads of people still running Win 95/98/ME/NT workstation to upgrade. Basically, they're counting in much the same way McDonald's counts, in this case, by number of licenses sold. This number is not a measure of active users.

    Linux has an opportunity to beat Microsoft to the punch with Longhorn. Application learning curve? Given that few of your existing applications will work in Longhorn, why not learn Linux? Fully developed suite of utilities and applications, you say? Buy a distribution from SuSE, Redhat or Mandrake [insert your distro here]. With Longhorn, Microsoft is giving up the one advantage they really had, the Win32 APIs (a position elaborated very well by Joel Spolsky in his Joel On Software column--sorry I don't have the link handy).

    • Re:Prediction: sun to rise... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by dave420 ( 699308 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @09:54AM (#9686182)
      I'm not being funny, but how can linux beat longhorn? It's taken years and years for there to be a good OSS office clone, and just as long for a decent OSS browser to find its way out. Now, you expect linux to somehow spawn a multimedia child that can do everything under the sun, without having to touch .conf files or ever use a command line.

      Lets not get above ourselves. I'm a linux developer, yet I can see that linux has a long way to go in some key areas. Sure - you can do 95% of windows stuff on linux, but until it gets to (or over) 100%, it's not going to change. linux will be the underdog.

      Don't interpret the recent moves away from IE as moves to Opera/Firefox - they didn't change because firefox and opera are so good, but because IE is so bad. Is that how Linux wants to be the best OS? Waiting for Windows to kill itself? jeez.

  • I can just see the new sign in Redmond... (Score:5, Funny)

    by Serk ( 17156 ) * on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:29AM (#9684759) Homepage
    Over One Billion Served!

    Somehow fitting, as Windows is to well written software what a Big Mac is to fine cuisine...

  • I'm surprised that a comment like this comes from an MS spokesman. While there may well be that many Windows desktops, they're clearly missing the big picture if that's their target.

    Even people who don't use a windows PC will be using windows. Even Linux users, if they use the web. Many sites, like Slashdot, are running through a windows server. And even if you're not interested in the net, Windows will be on a PDA, in your car, and on your set top box.
  • so they don't like paying for stuff...
    maybe they should try.. umm.... umm..... a free [kernel.org] alternative, that will probably run a lot of there windows 95 umm... I mean dos apps.

    I've been able to play more games using dosemu than using Windows, so I assume more dos application will run under dosemu than under Windows.
    Linux 1 Windows (home goal).

    If there still using Windows 95, I assume that there not running all the latest apps,in which case then chances are Linux does more than they could wish for, both on the
  • Not paying a dime for their pirated copies.

  • I hadn't heard of itfacts.biz so I followed the link to their page, which then provides an onward link to a New York Times article about the proliferation of Linux [nytimes.com].

    You have to subscribe to get into the body of that article, but from the first fifty words the tone does not seem to reflect the "Windows dominates the desktop" story of itfacts.biz.

    They are:

    GNU Linux, the free computer operating system, has had far more success in winning converts in corporate data centers than on desktop personal com

  • 3rd Reich (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Himring ( 646324 )
    "The head of Microsoft Windows client division claimed there will be 1 billion Windows users by 2010

    The 3rd reich lasted 1000 years too....

  • Developing Countries (Score:3, Interesting)

    by peterdaly ( 123554 ) <petedaly@@@ix...netcom...com> on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:35AM (#9684806)
    While most of the article and comments here seem to focus on upgrades and the US (developed world) market, I don't think that is where most of this growth is expected to come from.

    The article mentions PC growth the the developing world. The potential for growth there is huge, and I can see how they can come up with the 600k -> 1 billion number once that is factored in.

    That being said, will windows catch on as much as they think it will in counties without a pre-established windows bias? That remains to be seen. Looks like China may already be able to be counted as a loss.

    -Pete

  • How many users are you? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by infra-red ( 121451 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:37AM (#9684828)
    Personally, over my multiple machines, I am probably counted as 4 users going back over my last 4 machines.

    After all, machines may die, but licenses live on forever.

  • Why don't OS X and Linux attract more users? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by mst76 ( 629405 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:37AM (#9684830)
    Seriously, this is not a troll of flaimbait. If Windows is really so bad as many people claim, why does it have so many users? I'm not looking for unhelpful onliners like "most users are idiots", etc. Some Linux and a lot of MacOS X users claim that their platform is superior to Windows in every way. Many Apple users will even argue that the Mac platform is not even more expensive (although they often confuse price with value). If so, why don't more people switch?

    I'm a reasonably advanced computer user. Of the major platforms, I use Win2k/XP, Linux quite a lot, OS X somewhat less. In my opinion, they are pretty comparable for most things I want to do (and they each have their own set of quirks). But maybe I'm missing something obvious. So if anyone has some INSIGHTFUL comments on why people don't switch en masse to superior platforms, please let me know. And no flames please, let's try to keep the discussion polite.

    • Re:Why don't OS X and Linux attract more users? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Slack3r78 ( 596506 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:58AM (#9685002) Homepage
      Right now, high cost of entry is the barrier. In Linux's case it's in time, in Apple's case, it's monetary. This is coming from someone who runs a single Windows box for gaming, 3 Linux boxes, and will be buying an Apple portable in a couple of weeks when the cash is available.

      When it comes to Linux, it's just plain easier to run the copy of Windows that came on their $499 Dell than it is to spend time installing and learning a completely different operating system. It's what everyone else uses, so they might as well. Intertia is the cause more than anything.

      The same goes for Apple here. While the hardware may be of higher quality and the overall experience for your average user may be higher, the fact remains that your minimum investment into a Macintosh is a $799 eMac, which is more expensive than that $499 Dell. And besides, nobody in the "real world" uses Macs and they're not compatible with anything, right? That's the mindset of the average user, whether it's based on fact or prejudice is another story entirely.

      So what it comes down to is that, while I agree with you that all three platforms are perfectly adequate for the needs of most desktop users, Windows maintains its market share through pure inertia. It's what people know, it's what every one else uses, and it's basically just the path of least resistance all around. This, in turn, makes moving to an alternative more difficult, which means fewer people are likely to switch.
    • Simple, lack of interest. I'm a geek (hence posting on Slashdot), so I actually care about what I use for my day to day work/play.

      But do most people really give a damn? All most people want is email, an internet browser, Kazaa, and maybe some games. These are the people who go buy the cheapest PC they can find at the nearest store... and can you guess what comes preinstalled on those machines?

      It's come to the point where most people wouldn't even buy a machine with Linux pre-installed because it wouldn'

    • If Windows is really so bad as many people claim, why does it have so many users?

      Well, suppose the situation were reversed, with Linux being the entrenched monopoly product, and Windows the upstart. What would the situation be then?

      * All consumer computers would come pre-installed with Linux.

      * If you wanted Windows pre-installed, you could forget about it from the usual vendors - even offering to sell you a copy of Windows along with the new computer for you to install yourself would expose the ve

  • so long as the other 2-4 bn are using linux | BSD.
    • I suspect these figures don't account for the machines shipped with windows pre-loaded (such as mine), where the owner installs another operating system over it. So by 2010 they'll sell 400 million more machines pre-loaded with windows, and I suspect by then all 400 million will also be running Linux :)
  • Are we still going to be using desktop PCs in 6 years? I want a wearable computer and I don't want it running Windows!

  • The Last Dinosaur (Score:4, Interesting)

    by IGnatius T Foobar ( 4328 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:42AM (#9684867) Homepage Journal
    I dunno ... a lot can happen in six years. Microsoft claims a billion Windows users by 2010, but one might consider, on the other hand, Jeff Prothero's prediction that by 2010, Windows will be as dead as CP/M [muq.org] which is based on doublings-over-doublings of Linux market share.

    Reality, as always, is probably somewhere in between.

    • Article is already Wrong. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by jetkust ( 596906 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @09:53AM (#9686169)
      This article, written in 1999, predicted 10% of the desktop in 2000 (which never happened), 40% of the desktop in 2001 (which never happened), and market saturation in 2002. So reality is somewhere inbetween Microsoft being write, and this article being totally wrong?

  • its possible (Score:3, Informative)

    by dncsky1530 ( 711564 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:45AM (#9684890) Homepage
    This could also count the number of embedded windows installations on portable devices. I you remember the worlds most installed [web-japan.org] OS is barely heard of.
  • Although I run W-2000 at work and on my most used at home, my backup is still using W-95 that I loaded from Floppy disks. Except when I run ACDSee and Photoshop LE along with Netscape 4.7, it never has a problem. If third world countries are having as few problems as that computer has, why would they spend money to upgrade from 95 or 98 to something new. Think of it this way. If you have $5.00 and food and housing costs $4.75, are you going to spend the other quarter on a software upgrade?
  • Honestly, it ain't gonna happen. The next time Microsoft says "Hey, it's time to pay the Windoze tax and upgrade!" I think they'll find everyone is switching to Linux instead. Same hassle, half the price. If you want to make some good money in the not too distant future, I suggest you hone your skills at migrating IT shops from Windows to Linux. That's going to be a nice little boom market for a few years, starting right about the time Microsoft tries to ram Longhorn down our throats. All cliches aside, I w

  • That leaves... (Score:2, Funny)

    by tsa ( 15680 )
    The fact that there are 1 billion Windows users on this planet means that there are 5 billion inhabitants of Earth that can easily learn to use Linux, Mac OS or some other civilised OS!
  • - will be linux users [google.com] as well...
  • With the cost of upgrades, the continued security holes, the perceived instability, the required activation, and the neutering of XP Home... I really don't see myself or others upgrading from Win98 or Win2K without being forced to.

    How's that going to happen? Microsoft is going to have to discontinue support for those operating systems.

    And, I suspect that's their longer term plan. By cutting support, when the next window of bit-rot or software bloat forces a user to consider their options, I think Micros
  • Remember that old saying "You can fool some of the people all of the time, or all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time"?

    Somehow, I think 1 billion is close enough. Sigh

  • How many paid licenses? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by miffo.swe ( 547642 ) <daniel...hedblom@@@gmail...com> on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @07:59AM (#9685016) Homepage Journal
    I seriously quiestion their reveny is going to be this high in the future even if they succeed in bringing home additional markets like China or India. Pirating is rampant and not many are aware of license costs. Recent discounts MS have been handing out seems to indicate that prople just dont want to pay that much money for MS Windows. Constant upgrading of the operating system isnt something the users want either. The day of printing money seems to be coming to an end.

    Suppose Microsoft somehow makes the ultimate DRM system effectivly killing all the pirating in the world? Would the users gladly pay or would they just switch to something free and gratis instead?

    Microsoft is in for a ride and i hope it makes them a teamplayer like IBM and others who once was big and without concious.

  • Duplicat number?? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by holy_smoke ( 694875 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @08:08AM (#9685107)
    FTA:
    ------------------
    Poole said Microsoft expects the demand to come from enterprises in developed countries, all sizes of companies in developing markets and from OEMs that tailor Windows for specific markets.

    Many industry watchers have talked about the Windows desktop market as being a saturated one, with little potential for the huge unit and revenue growth of the past. But that's not the picture Microsoft's painting.

    "PC replacements are at the top of what IT will be spending on this year," Poole predicted.
    ----------------

    I know at work it seems that everyone is getting a laptp in addition to their workstation, and sometimes we are given workstations to take home for "remote office" capability. If this is a widespread business trend, then yeah their perceived OS sales would "double" even though their user base doesn't really.

    Aside from this possibility I think the article is just MS wishful thinking. Open Source isn't going away. On the contrary, it will only get better and better. I see MS having blinders on when it comes to OSS. They are in denial, and they are trying to distract everyone from realizing how truly innovative and progressive OSS is.

    Once the Linux vendors of the world achieve hardware driver, gaming, and interoperability capability on the order of Windows (and they are VERY close to this) then there will truly be NO reason to buy Microsoft.

    Longhorn is MS' next big thing. Linux has an opportunity between now and then to seize the tactical initiative. GO FOR IT!!

  • Broken PCs? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by HermanAB ( 661181 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @08:39AM (#9685391)
    I'm pretty sure they are simply adding up all the licences ever sold and not subtracting all the dead PCs lying in basements and dumps the world over.

  • Maybe - but I reckon that this will happen (Score:3, Interesting)

    by LardBrattish ( 703549 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @10:56AM (#9686956) Homepage
    1) Longhorn will be the most expensive version of Windows yet developed (No shit Sherlock) BUT it will be the cheapest in real terms.

    2) Linux will start to win around the time M$ start to push people towards Longhorn. Linux will have another 2 years of polish and development. Businesses will start to tale a long hard look at the choice of paying the Microsoft tax & taking it up the ass from Bill or shifting to Linux paying the short term pain (which will be a lot closer in cost for businesses when it comes to deploying Longhorn) with the long term gain.

    We won't get everybody but as the O/S upgrade cycle swings around we will pick up a significant proportion of business. Once that business starts wanting features & sponsoring their development then it's bye bye monopoly.

  • Should be using installed base, not market share (Score:3, Interesting)

    by mosb1000 ( 710161 ) <mosb1000@mac.com> on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @12:17PM (#9688094)
    That's market share, not installed base. Apple only accounts for 2.8% of the desktops sold annually, but that is not directly comparable to their installed base. If the average Apple user kept his computer for twice as long as the average PC user, Apple's installed base would be 5.6% of all the desktops currently in use. It's a commonly held assumption that Mac users hold onto their computers longer, though I've never seen any statistics to back this up. It's makes little difference, I know, but it's so common for people to make this mistake that I had to say something.

  • Cutbacks at Microsoft (Score:3, Interesting)

    by carcosa30 ( 235579 ) on Tuesday July 13, 2004 @12:46PM (#9688461)
    I understand that there have been some recent belt-tightenings at Microsoft, as astonishing as it may sound. Apparently they got rid of the free soda, et cetera.

    Also interesting about their attempted attack on Unix from Longhorn-- the much ballyhooed Unix support on the Longhorn core.

    I think they're headed for hard times. They must work with OSS, and yet the more they do so the more they're going to be competing in an uneven playing field. Free software that works is far preferable to massively marketed, grossly expensive software that's full of bugs.

    Only thing that Windows has now that Linux doesn't (don't split hairs with me, I mean mostly) is game support. And even that advantage is shrinking visibly. Currently I boot into a stripped XP for gaming, and that's it-- half the time in the XP installation, I'm running Cygwin to catch X apps from my other box for such things as browsing and sundries, thereby endrunning the execrable memory management in Windows.

    If they don't accept OSS, their island is going to slowly erode under their feet. If they do accept OSS, they're screwed once again, because if they receive the Mark of the Penguin, their users will get used to free open source software and they'll start wondering why they should pay $178 for a similar but shittier, more bloated word processor. And then they'll start thinking about the OS that's full of security holes every week and vulnerable to all kinds of malware...

    I just don't see how any kind of UNIX integration is good for the Windows business model.

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