Firefox Growth Slowing? 433
ninja_assault_kitten writes "Silicon.com has an interesting article on the apparently slowing growth of Firefox. To quote the article, 'The slackening of Firefox's growth could mean that the browser has converted a substantial proportion of its natural constituency, thought to be early adopters and the technically savvy. It could also show that the browser's widely publicised security flaws have begun to undermine the foundation's argument that people should switch from IE to be safer.' One thing's for sure, with the release of 1.0.3 and now 1.0.4 we can probably expect to breach the 80 million download mark shortly."
How many unique downloads? (Score:5, Interesting)
Arash Partow
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:2, Interesting)
I've downloaded different versions and same version several times for my own use after several reinstalls.
I'm pretty sure all those downloads(+20 of them) count in on that 80 million.
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:5, Insightful)
and disingenuous posters
I'm pretty sure all those downloads(+20 of them) count in on that 80 million.
And so what? A download total number (used for marketing) is essentially used as a "vote of confidence". If you liked the browser enough to not only install each version as it came out, but install each of those on multiple machines, then Hell Yes it's a "vote of confidence" and should count towards the Total Number.
I use Safari, and could really give shit about how many downloads Firefox, Mozilla or frickin' IE get. What I do know is that you're trying to somehow dilute the legitimacy of the number of downloads when your very multi-downloads were an endorsement of the quality of this product.
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Interesting)
It is easy to see how people could misin
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:4, Insightful)
When people advertise that their application has had so many downloads, many people assume that that number equals the number of users
If people assume, that is their own fault. The number that Firefox gives is number of downloads, nothing more, nothing less. Downloads is the only number they should give to the public. They don't know how many unique users are downloading the program. They don't take personal information (and if they did, people would question why they need that info for a free, open source browser. Especially us tin foilers here at slashdot), therefore, they can't give out exact user numbers, they best they could do is estimate. Downloads is the perfect statistic for them; It's honest, a great representation of how well their program has caught on, it's an impressive number, and it does show a good deal of "user confidence". Even if every person downloaded 10 copies of it, that's still 8 million people who trust it, enjoy it, use it frequently enough that they stay updated with every upgrade, put it on every computer they use regularly, and probably tell their friends/family/colleagues about, which is a grand vote of confidence in my book. Misinterpretation of the number is the fault of the (potential) user, all Mozilla/Firefox is doing is giving out the facts.
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Insightful)
Then they are fools. They clearly state it is the number of downloads and not the number of users.
Anyway, the number of users my be higher. I have personally installed firefox 30 or so times for at least 10 different people from a single install cd I bought from mozilla store. That counts as zero downloads.
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Funny)
Damn straight! I have so much confidence in it I downloaded it 79 million times just to let them know how much I appreciate it.
KFG
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Insightful)
Dear Coward, /. and uses Firefox. I'm the reason why t
First, I don't care about Apple and KHTML, as long as my browser works well. If Apple has done something bad, then shame on them. But I really don't give a shit if KHTML guys are pissed about the code not being paid forward by Apple; maybe they give a shit but not me. And guess what I am? I'll tell you what; I'm more of a typical user than the uber-geek that frequents
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Informative)
More likely a camino convert. Firefox is buggy as hell on os x
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:4, Insightful)
Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but for it to be lying, wouldn't they have to say something like x million unique *users* rather than downloads? They call it a download because there's no easy way to differentiate unique users without forcing people to register or something... even then the statistics wouldn't be perfect.
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Funny)
42.
Note... I was going to write 1 but... u know... no?
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Insightful)
I don't use Firefox. I have no real intention of switching to Firefox unless it develops some killer features that I find I am missing. And yet, I still care that it is popular. Why? Because I am using another W3C-standards compliant browser, and the more people not using IE, the more potential market share people lose just by designing an IE-only site. If designing an IE only site means that a
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:5, Insightful)
Also, for anyone who thinks updates of firefox count as another download (as someone always seems to bring up in these discussions as well), they don't. [slashdot.org]
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Interesting)
I can vouch for this. I download a single copy of the latest version from time to time for both Linux and Windows and burn it to CD. I then install in on my machines, for my family, friends, so forth. This will show up as one download (per OS), even though we're talking a dozen or more installs.
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:3, Insightful)
What you meant, if you had turned on your brain, is that total downloads are the best available proxy on Firefox's broad-based mindshare. The other proxy available, user agent strings reported to web servers, is a better proxy on page views. But even this proxy is weak, since it fails to account for a wide range of cachi
Re:How many unique downloads? (Score:2)
Vocabulary impairment strike slashdot crowd (Score:3, Funny)
It is on the level of "talk to the hand" or "what-ev-er."
Please, in the interest of not annoying me, stop.
Translation to layman's term- (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Translation to layman's term- (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Translation to layman's term- (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Translation to layman's term- (Score:5, Funny)
All the geeks on planet Earth are not using IE.
(If you're using IE as your main browser, you're obviously not a geek.)
Re:Translation to layman's term- (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Translation to layman's term- (Score:2, Funny)
Go back to your crappy DOS command line.
Re:Translation to layman's term- (Score:5, Funny)
Real geeks stick their tounge on a frayed Ethernet cable.
Re:Translation to layman's term- (Score:3, Funny)
Nah (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Nah (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Nah (Score:2)
Re:Nah (Score:3, Interesting)
And there's a difference between arbitrary coding standards, and expecting code to be intuitive. A function's behavior should at the very least not be inconsistent with what an educated reader would
And shortly after the 80 million mark... (Score:3, Funny)
What's with the arbitrary "marks"? 80 million? What about 75 million? That's 3/4 of 100 million which is much nicer than saying 4/5 of 100 million. Better yet, what about 100 million being the next "mark"? That's 7/7 of 100 million.
Re:And shortly after the 80 million mark... (Score:5, Funny)
And a punk like you comes around and finds round numbers arbitrary. Just where do you get off, huh?
Re:And shortly after the 80 million mark... (Score:2)
At 100 million... that extra digit just really tickels my fancy
Re:And shortly after the 80 million mark... (Score:2, Funny)
Yes, sqrt(-pi). What were you thinking?
Re:And shortly after the 80 million mark... (Score:2)
The Babylonians used base-360 a lot, which is where we get our circles from.
The Romans didn't really use bases at all.
Widely Publicized? (Score:3, Insightful)
It seemed like the publication of those security flaws came from Mozilla itself... and a fix was out in about a week.
Who tells us about IE flaws and how long does it take for them to get fixed?
Re:Widely Publicized? (Score:2)
Re:Widely Publicized? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Widely Publicized? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Widely Publicized? (Score:5, Informative)
True credit belongs to Paul from Greyhats Security Group and Michael Krax (and in the spirit of this post, I'm going to give credit to mozillazine for originally posting the summary I'm writing this off of).
Corporate Adoption (Score:5, Interesting)
There are still several "business" websites such as financial services, B2B and corporate intranets that rely on ActiveX and IE.
While Firefox's growth may be slowing, it is still growing -- just not as fast. When the IE-only sites start to get more complaints about usability from their customers, then you will start to see a steady stream of corporate support for Firefox.
-Charles
Re:Corporate Adoption (Score:2)
Re:Corporate Adoption (Score:2)
Well, maybe (Score:3, Insightful)
Well lately, I am reconsidering. At this point I've deicded Firefox stays on all images, and I'll recommend people use it, but I'm not going to push it any harder.
Why?
Well the honeymoon is now over in regards to security. I know as well as anyone that OSS doesn't magically mean secure. Many programmers have an arrogance about them that they think all security bugs are perfectly obvio
Re:Well, maybe (Score:5, Insightful)
Step 1.) Open firefox.
Step 2.) Press Control-T.
Here's another test
Step 3.) Go to www.cnn.com
Step 4.) Open internet explorer.
Step 5.) Go to www.cnn.com
Step 6.) Count the popup windows.
Seriously, man. Have convictions. I do desktop support and network administration for a living, and I can tell you, with almost absolute certainty, users that use Internet Explorer will get spyware. Users that use Internet Explorer will get popups.
Firefox has a vulnerability. So what? The honeymoon is over, as you say. Now it's time to play the lesser of two evils. Now it's time for clothespin voting. Pick which one you think is best for you and your end users. If neither are perfect, pick the one that stinks less. And Lord Knows what's in opera. If you're concerned that firefox's holes weren't showing up before because few people used it, MAN, opera is not for you. I'd take the monster I know (open source) over the monster I didn't (opera).
Be pragmatic. Firefox doesn't have Active-X install popups constantly bugging users to install MyWebSearchToolbarAndAgreeToOurTermsAndConditions
Don't jump overboard just because no browser is perfect. Some are closer than others.
~Will
Re:Corporate Adoption (Score:3, Interesting)
Many of them have already switched to Firefox and there are only one or two third-party services that are incompatible. These third party services offer 2nd-Level quotes and consolidated investment portfolio management for brokers. That is, hundreds of accounts -- not the stuff for the end user.
I helped one major company make their site Firefox compatible just by pointing out "it already works if
Whoo, great news folks! (Score:3, Interesting)
According to this [silicon.com] article on silicon.com, Firefox is still growing! As of April 29th, Firefox had captured 6.8 percent of the browser market and IE slipped to 88.9 percent market share. Break out the champagne, folks!
Uh yeah, nice article. Glass half empty...
Re:Whoo, great news folks! (Score:2)
Re:Whoo, great news folks! (Score:3, Funny)
Perhaps we didn't bring out enough champagne?
Firefox is entering an already saturated market (Score:5, Insightful)
It could also show that the browser's widely publicised security flaws have begun to undermine the foundation's argument that people should switch from IE to be safer.
Um... I don't think that's it. While the security flaws might be causing some to think twice, the real issue is market saturation. There does not exist a desktop computer sold in the last 10 years that didn't come with a web browser. They are essentially entering a 100% saturated market. Nonetheless, I think their accomplishments are stunning.
Re:Firefox is entering an already saturated market (Score:5, Insightful)
We need to measure marketshare in relation to the rise and fall of other browsers. Unfortunuately, to do this we need to distinguish individual users in a series of samples for each one. We're gauging this by downloads and server logs from a few sample groups. These numbers could be wildly inaccurate.
Also, it's been only a week since the "big" Firefox exploit and the patch has already come (well, the new version anyway). It hasn't been long enough to judge whether or not this alleged impact is from security concerns. Further, we can't tell if the numbers we recieve now are from users who know about the security implications or not.
In fact, we can only guess why users choose one browser over another. We only assume their choice makes any sense. This is all a guessing game with a few numbers.
Grows in Spurts (Score:4, Insightful)
Most things do not grow evenly through their whole life. Firefox grew explosivly in part due to the Wall Street Journal ad and a lot analysts pushing the security benefits. Now that there's been an equal amount of noise about the near-trivial exploit, people are getting cold feet.
I mean, some of the people who were considering switching are now asking about the exploit. One that did switch is asking how hard it is to switch back.
I say that it's a theoritical exploit that nobody has actually used to compromise a computer. If they're still listening, I add a joke contrasting IE's real world exploits. The news has hurt adoption rates of Firefox, but that's just because it's bad news, not because it's real.
People want to hear "Firefox is a pancea for all your ills", not "Every piece of software can have problems". Expect Firefox growth to pick up again after people don't remember this recent bug, and expect a few people to remember this bug years from today.
----
Evil will always win because good is dumb. -- Spaceballs.
Re:You guys are hilarious (Score:3, Insightful)
Doesn't anyone else find this hilarious?
No, you're the only one.
Most every MS bug has a real-life gaping security hole, and most of the time the code to exploit it is rolling through the 0-day exploit sites in no time.
So.. no, no one else finds it hilarious.
Re:Firefox is entering an already saturated market (Score:2)
Growing? Slowing? (Score:2, Interesting)
Don't forget about "sensitive dependence upon initial conditions", and inherant unpredictability.
Article sponsored by Microsoft? (Score:2, Informative)
To see some Alexa graphs for Firefox, Mozilla, Microsoft, etc. see what I posted earlier today:
http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=149252&cid=12 5 13459 [slashdot.org]
Over on http://simpy.com/ [simpy.com] I see this:
Netscape/Mozilla 29971 (36.3%)
Unknown 24985 (30.3%)
Explorer 22249 (26.9%)
Safari 2441 (3.0%)
Opera 1560 (1.9%)
Opera CEO's cross-Atlantic swimming trick didn't help the browser's market share. Safari appears stagnant. Mozilla % keeps growing slowly.
Re:Article sponsored by Microsoft? (Score:3)
http://www.simpy.com/simpy/LinkHistory.do?href=ht
Try plugging in Microsoft's URL. It's not that popular.
Firefox users blocking WebSideStory? (Score:5, Insightful)
Could it be that Firefox users are blocking marketing firm WebSideStory's tracking images? These guys are just as evil as DoubleClick in assembling a massive database of information on web users' browsing history. Wouldn't ignorant IE users be more likely to allow WebSideStory to track them?
Re:Firefox users blocking WebSideStory? (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Firefox users blocking WebSideStory? (Score:2)
Growth rate slowing? (Score:5, Funny)
The good news is, the *third* derivative is positive, which means that the change rate of the growth rate is increasing. Soon enough, the growth rate will even out and eventually start increasing again!
Oh, and don't even get me started about the 5th derivative...
Friends & Family (Score:3, Insightful)
If I find they have been using IE they get a 1 strike & they're out. If I find they have been using it a second time.
"Sorry, my time is more important to me & I prefer not to keep fixing the same ol' same ol'"
Hey here's a thought (Score:5, Funny)
Exponential Growth... (Score:4, Interesting)
Or it could mean that firefox's growth just isn't exponential [mozillazine.org], 'cause that would be pretty hard to keep up for very long...
This is nonsense... (Score:4, Insightful)
Every mega-corporation hires it's own sub/pseudo company to do an "audit" of the market saturation/absorbtion rate.
Much like politics, it's not newsworthy to report that candidate X has lost +/-4 points. Let's see what browser the people choose.
Unlike the US election, I'm sure that the people will make the right decision (when it affects them directly - [ex. No Popups, No Spyware, No viruses, etc.]).
People may be stupid and they should be guided, but they should never be abused or manipulated.
If they don't implement partial upgrades (Score:2)
For sure, we hope, maybe. (Score:4, Insightful)
Firefox extensions broke on my Powerbook (Score:2)
Safari is my browser now, for everything.
Re:Firefox extensions broke on my Powerbook (Score:2, Informative)
Firefox came pre-installed with the distribution, and I couldn't add new search engines whatsoever. Then, I figured out that it was installed as root, and I had to add them as root for everything to show up in my user profile.
Just say no to IE. (Score:5, Funny)
Using IE instead of Firefox over security concerns is like keeping your eyes closed when hooking up with a drugged up bag of herpes prostitute.
Just stick with Firefox. It's like using a rubber, which at least is 90+% effective at keeping out the herpes.
Mozilla... (Score:2, Funny)
I am so sad... (Score:3)
I gave up trying to get the english US version.. (Score:2)
So I tried wget and it ended up dling what seems to be the wondows version, regardless of teh fact I was requesting the linux version...
Finally gave up and dl'd the english GB version,,
So yeah, at least 80 million this way...
it could also mean (Score:2, Troll)
"oh no, slow growth for 5 days!? firefox is over!"
that's what it sounds like to me. stop seeing trends in white noise.
This highlights a problem with the tech press (Score:3, Insightful)
The big picture is that people are realizing there are viable alternatives to Microsoft products, and they are using those alternatives. For a long time it was essentially IE reigning supreme, and now there are a variety of alternatives, with Firefox leading the pack and picking up new users by the millions.
Who needs Firefox? (Score:2, Informative)
But even Slashdot people (and other tech savvy people) are so conservative as to still respecting the impact of IE, and sinc
Re:Who needs Firefox? (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Who needs Firefox? (Score:2)
I think it is a little more like we have a whole bunch of general-purpose roads but a whole bunch of roads that can only be used by the IE-mobile. Just a matter of resurfacing those roads so that everyone can drive on them.
It is kind of sad... (Score:2, Insightful)
Yea I'll troll: if MSIE didn't have all those exploits FF would have browser share equal to netscape today.
Bugs which annoy me (YMMV):
Phony Accounting? (Score:2, Insightful)
Hitting 80 million downloads is not as impressive as it sounds when a lot of those downloads are because FF does not have a patch infrastructure in place.
Please try not to misrepresent. Yes it's true, FF may be downloaded 80 million times, but a certain percentage of those downloads are users upgrading a
Re:Phony Accounting? (Score:3, Interesting)
I had to download Firefox three times today because the first two times the files were 56K and corrupted. After uninstalling the old version (no automatic upgrade will help push up the download count) I dumped the old log and config files and fired up InCtrl5 for the install. I chose just the browser option. I was politely asked if I wanted extra shortcuts - then after I declined they were created anyway. I was given the option of using the Firefox 'start' page as my home page - once again I declined to no
That makes very little sense.... (Score:3, Insightful)
Stats from my site (Score:5, Informative)
Here are some running percentages for IE and Firefox over the past year:
2004-05: IE 94.1%, Firefox 0.6%
2004-06: IE 94.0%, Firefox 0.9%
2004-07: IE 93.1%, Firefox 1.3%
2004-08: IE 93.1%, Firefox 1.8%
2004-09: IE 92.6%, Firefox 2.0%
2004-10: IE 92.5%, Firefox 2.5%
2004-11: IE 91.9%, Firefox 3.1%
2004-12: IE 89.3%, Firefox 4.5%
2005-01: IE 88.0%, Firefox 5.6%
2005-02: IE 87.9%, Firefox 5.7%
2005-03: IE 88.0%, Firefox 5.9%
2005-04: IE 87.3%, Firefox 6.2%
2005-05 (first 12 days): IE 88.8%, Firefox 5.9%
The big jump towards Firefox occured late last year with the Mozilla Foundation's marketing blitz. Since then, there does indeed appear to be a slowing up in migration towards Firefox. This month's stats so far actually show a reversal.
Interesting spin .. (Score:3, Insightful)
Let's not forget that is
a) 80 million, only assisted with a single ad and word of mouth
b) 80 million, DESPITE a pre-installed, um, "alternative"
c) 80 million that saw those features first that may or may not make it into IE7. Note that IE had been going stale for lack of competition - natural consequence of the MS approach to, um, "innovation".
d) 80 million that are not exposed to the bad and insecure excuse for a coding platform that is ActiveX.
e) 80 million that don't care on which platform they browse, which together with OpenOffice represents a good 90% of the end user community.
Now, the last one is where the threat to MS resides. Usability is very rapidly dissappearing as a distinguishing factor.
Silver bullet? (Score:3, Informative)
Ugh, how long does it take for IE patches to come out, if ever??? Only if there's a widely-spreading virus or trojan exploiting it, then you get a patch miraculously within a day or two. Otherwise they just wipe your complaining away like a speck of dust. On top of that I bet IE has a lot more problems to worry about than Firefox could ever have. I know it's possible for IE to wipe out files on the hard disk; I doubt Firefox could do it unless there is some sort of ported ActiveX support forcefully ported to Firefox.
Since I mentioned MS wiping you off like dust, I say that because way back when I submitted a report about the Up button not working when IE was in FTP mode. The Up button was calling the same routine that Back did. I tested it by going down a few directories and dumping the entire history cache. Up did not work as Back did not. I knew that was proof that Up didn't work right because you don't need a history to `cd
By the way, I remember the IE4 alpha PNG on the feature list. I was shocked to see it again for IE7. Took long enough! but wait we don't know if they'll actually do it this time.
Emmmm, maybe better check your facts... (Score:3, Insightful)
or it could mean that they need to advertise more (Score:4, Interesting)
AFAIK, its growth was pretty much tied to the full-page ad in the NYT. If growth is slowing, they need to pump out some TV commercials, start advertising on google, and keep up the print campaign.
Non-technical people tend to have a very short attention span on things like this. They just need to be reminded that it's out there.
Re:80 Million Downloads...who cares! (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:80 Million Downloads...who cares! (Score:5, Funny)
Oh I'll burn for that.
Re:80 Million Downloads...who cares! (Score:2)
If the browser is vulnerable, the spyware will be back there after few days of browsing again.
Why not just write software that fakes the information that spyware progs gather and render them useless to manufacture in begin with?
Re:Forcing the count up (Score:2, Funny)
Re:80 Million Downloads... (Score:3, Insightful)
Simple version: if you used the Firefox upgrade mechanism, they don't.
IIRC, it's slightly more complicated than that. Even so, the number is incredibly hard to guess: lots of people download more than once, and lots of people (think office rollouts or the like) download only once fore many machines. It's a guesstimate, and even if it were a good guesstimate it still is pretty meaningless, since it doesn't take into account how much people actually use the browser.
One of the people on http://planet.mozi [mozilla.org]
Re:Yeah (Score:2)
Re:apathy (Score:5, Insightful)
Seriously... try some tabbed browsing... even if you just buy an addon for IE... you should really try it.
Using the taskbar makes a mess when you are doing more than just browsing the web. All of your websites get mixed in with your regular programs. Tabbed browsing keeps everything nice a neat. You can also browse a lot faster (Run down slashdot middle clicking on the interesting links then just close off tabs as you read them... much better than click a link... read.... click back... click a link... read).
Just try it already.
Friedmud
Re:apathy (Score:2)
Re:It could also mean... (Score:2, Interesting)
Although the Gecko browsers (pick your choice) perform excellent on OS X, Safari is still a bit better in most regards, especially in rendering and standards compliance (Acid test passed).
Re:It could also mean... (Score:2)
As far as support for CSS and the W3C DOM, Gecko is still rather far ahead. I don't mean to disparage the work the WebCore guys, particularly Hyatt, have done, but their Acid2 compliance doesn't mean they do a better job of following standards. It just means that Hyatt took some time and fixed the specific set of b