10 Tech Concepts You Should Know for 2007 195
mattnyc99 writes "Popular Mechanics has a new list of wide-ranging technology terms it claims will be big in 2007. From PRAM to BAN and SmartPills to data clouds, it's a pretty nice summary of upcoming and in-the-works trends across the board (with a podcast embedded). Though these aren't technologies they expect to be in everyone's homes next year, they're sure this tech will be in the headlines. How do their predictions from a year ago stack up now?" From the article: "Printed Solar Panels - Tomorrow's solar panels may not need to be produced in high-vacuum conditions in billion-dollar fabrication facilities. If California-based Nanosolar has its way, plants will use a nanostructured "ink" to form semiconductors, which would be printed on flexible sheets. Nanosolar is currently building a plant that will print 430 megawatts' worth of solar cells annually--more than triple the current solar output of the entire country."
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#12 (Score:3, Funny)
#11 Ipod drive emulator for all mp3 players (Score:2)
This would be killed faster than you can eat an apple, and a new itunes would probably be released to detect it, but it could be done if you emulated
an older ipod 100% and remapped its HD to the other imposter mp3 player.
Any one got a dump of IDE/USB traffic dumps from itunes when it talks to the ipod?
a future Ask Slashdot... (Score:5, Funny)
Now my bed is made of Bendable Concrete and my girlfriend has left me, complaining about my Plasma Arc Gasification.
Now who is going to mend my Printed Solar Panel shirts?
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So in your vision of the future, Slashdotters will be able to get girlfriends? Seems a bit optimistic to me.
2006's predictions were kind of accurate.... (Score:5, Informative)
"Pedestrian Protection System (PPS)
Radar sensors and computer-controlled braking will keep drivers safer than ever, but what about pedestrians? In case your adaptive cruise control fails to spot someone darting into the road, TRW Automotive is introducing the PPS system: if you smack a pedestrian, the hood is automatically raised to cushion his landing on the engine block. The system is already being tested, part of a drive to meet new European and Japanese regulations on pedestrian safety which are being phased in, starting with 2006 models."
Jaguar's new XK coupe has this: http://www.jaguarusa.com/us/en/xk/highlights/high
Not to mention FTTH (via Verizon), Perpendicular Storage (via Hitachi Global Storage Technologies), Mobile WiMAX (Rogers and Bell in Canada have this).
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Sounds like a plan.
Re:2006's predictions were kind of accurate.... (Score:5, Informative)
Re:2006's predictions were kind of accurate.... (Score:4, Funny)
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Teaching kids to look both ways before crossing might reduce impacts by 25%, but it won't eliminate them. There are still vehicles that will jump the curb onto the sidewalk, or do 40 mph before pulling a hard turn around a blind corner, or hit a person while going into a driveway (often the car owner's own kids).
Extra safety features can only help reduce the pedestrian death and injury toll further.
Salor Power is not yet viable (Score:5, Insightful)
However, if they can make a 5% efficient solar panel. I will buy it.
Why? It all comes down to cost. Solar power is too expensive for me. It takes over 5 years for a solar panel to pay for itself. Also, a solar panel only lasts (the efficiency declines over time) about 20 years. The capital cost is too high.
So companies should focus on reducing the per watt cost of solar panels. Not on improving the efficiency. If you can make solar panels for $5 per 100 watt panel
A 100% efficiency solar panel can take up 1 m^2 and generate a kilowatt, a 10% efficiency solar panel would need 10 m^2 to match that up
Who is your financial advisor? (Score:3, Interesting)
You are right, though. The answer is dollars per watt. Solar is still not there yet, though it is getting close to matching peak prices in some markets (California, Japan, Germany). However, the "printed" thin-film versions are still highly inefficient compared to normal silicon-crystal
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No. I don't think so.
Re:Who is your financial advisor? (Score:4, Insightful)
The problem is that it is now worth a small fraction of what it was worth when you bought it. Just like a car (which also has about a 20 year lifespan), it loses value quite rapidly as it becomes less efficient and closer to being a pile of junk that you have to pay to get rid of.
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Other things that affect the price include being able to get a more powerful panel for less money, and electricity prices going up or down.
Re:Salor Power is not yet viable (Score:5, Informative)
So in 20 years the solar panel just stops working?
I think not. actually it's an asymptotic curve which levels out over time. Yes their peak is at teh begining, but they still produce Usable power for a long time.
From Wiki ". (Normally, photovoltaic modules have 25 years' warranty, but they should be fully functional even after 30-40 years.)"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaics [wikipedia.org]
Also, your economics are slightly skewed
your not paying for 100W of e-. Your paying for a system to manufacture a peak of 100W of e- during daylight hours (avg probably 50W (just guessing?))
If it was $5 for 100W panel, e- would be close to free anyway because everyone would produce their own.
Secondly not many man made conversions happen at 100% efficiency.
I am not a huge alternative energy freek, but economics dictate that solar panels are allready a smart choice for home use. Admittedly, if demand for them suddenly increased, that would not be so. But assuming e- prices continue to go up, (they will, you can bet on it in the long term for at least another 20-40 years) Then you have an even more economicaly strong position. Now, it's probably not going to net you the hugest gains, but it pays for itself, and then more. It's a solid return, that lasts a long time, and is scalable, upgradeable, and virtually maintenance free.
P.S. talking about grid tied, inverted system here. None of that silly battery stuff.
Also see my past comments on SOLAR (Score:2, Insightful)
I also have another one somewhere here on slashdot, but couldn't find it.
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Printable solar panels (Score:2)
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You can only use genuine Epson ink, at $500 a milliliter...
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What if the cost is almost nothing? (Score:2)
Re:What if the cost is almost nothing? (Score:4, Interesting)
If solar panels paid for themselves in 6 months, I'd cover my whole roof with them, sell my cars and buy cars that can run on electricity, convert my gas furnace and hot water heater to run on electricity... and I'd give my oil, coal, and gas-burning brethren unending hell until they did the same. If solar panels were cheap enough to pay for themselves in 6 months, it would make sense for everybody to do it- not only for environmental reasons, but also for economical ones.
Home owners Associations (Score:2, Insightful)
There was an article in the WSJ a couple of years ago where a guy in TX had to move out into the country so he could put solar panels on
Re:Home owners Associations (Score:5, Interesting)
Yes, this is a real problem. However, if cells become reasonably priced, and can be "printed", what would it take to "print" them onto an attractive subsurface so that it blends in nicely?
And, lest you think this is a NEW idea, an "I'm feeling lucky" Google search led me to somebody else who already had the same idea. [premierpower.com]
More expensive? Sure! Why else would they go to the extra effort? But it's at least POSSIBLE.
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(Ok, I'm European, I may not understand the US mindset on this)
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It's not that hard if you get out of WASP-ville, USA. All us work-a-day slobs that don't live in a "planned community" can put up solar panels.
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I should mention that these do tend to be a little more expensive. Hopefully the printable solar stuff will bring the price down considerably and offset this.
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If it's 'and', then that hedge isn't going to cut it, as it wouldn't be enclosed.
That's what I hate about and/or. What exactly does that / mean, and how do you compound logic operators. And, or, xor, biconditional, conditional, and negation are plenty enough logic operators (and plenty more than strictly necessary) in my book, unless you're just trying to confuse people.
Re:Sailor Power is not yet viable (Score:2, Funny)
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Huh? What if the $5/watt cells are not powerful enough to power your A/C during peak hours, but the $10/watt cells are? There are a lot of factors here. You've only got so much roof space, and most people won't put them out on the lawn, even if community standards allowed that. For the A/C scenario, the 20 years during which the cells become less powerful is 20 years during which you could be growing trees to shade your house. Deciduous trees will reduce the power from the cells, but they'll reduce you
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Not to mention that most businesses are open, and as such, need power, during the daylight hours...
The key is modularity (Score:2)
The nice thing about the incremental purchase approach is that they p
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If you can make solar panels for $5 per 100 watt panel .. you can bet I'll be off grid. I don't care about efficiency, I only care about cost
You paid ~ $10,000 to have a licenced electrician (time and materials) wire your fuse box to the grid. For that kind of money you could buy a solar system that would keep you in electricity for a long time. There would be thousands of dollars left over. If you invested that along with your monthly electric payments you would have a fund that would replace anything that failed in your home system for much of the rest of your life.
Re:Salor Power is not yet viable (Score:4, Informative)
The power company runs the power to your house for free in every state I have lived in. They will even upgrade the service from 100 amps to 200 amps for free. The only "tie in to the grid" is the connection from the meter to the mains, which are less than a meter away from each other, as required by code.
This is a $200 job, not a $10,000 job. Everything else you are paying for, from the mains to the socket, has to be done regardless of where the power comes from. AND you can wire a brand new 2400 sq ft house for less than half of what you are claiming, sockets and switches included.
Now, to hook your DC powered solar panels up to use in your home, you will need to either wire new DC circuits to everything or use an inverter system. To connect YOUR power to the grid to sell back/use off time, and sync the phasing, etc. you are going to spend several thousand for autoswithing, inversion, etc. It's worthwhile, but it isn't cheap to connect your OWN power source to the grid.
Your numbers are simply out of whack and (with all due respect) not based on real world scenarios.
Re:Salor Power is not yet viable (Score:4, Informative)
If it's in new construction it's maybe doable, but as a retrofit job (which I'm assuming is the case as this is being conpared to a solar panel retrofit) it will be extremely labor intensive as old plaster has to be removed and then new plaster put over wherever you have to go into the wall.
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Doing it to an old house wouldn't require tearing out much sheetwork or plaster if you have a clean run from the attic to the socket. Even if you did, you would just be ripping the section between two 16" studs. Not a $10k job in the worst of situations. The main point is that it is CHEAPER to
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I certainly would never bid $10,000 for a modern wiring job of a huge house (2,400 sq. ft. is huge in my book)
Yeah, it's more like 12k. At least, that's what my coworker was quoted by a contractor to rewire his newly bought house (harry homeowner shit all over the place). This is in seattle, which isn't exactly cheap.
Why? (Score:2)
Why would you sacrifice any land at all. How about just sacrificing some roof area instead?
you have zero proof (Score:3, Informative)
When you can show the lads-point to a link-with your local electricity supplier that offers a 20 year pricing contract, then you can make such a statement. Until then, you have absolutely no data to assert your assumption and cult-like belief system, ie, it's time to dump "junk economic science".
Now, I can't assert anything either, but I can say that solar bought toda
Solar Shingles/Siding (Score:2)
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Also, what the solar guys neglect in their calculations is that if you're going purely by financial reasons, the investment of $10,000 today is a huge opportunity cost.
To say that the panels "will pay for themselves" in five years doesn't quite cut it. They not only need to pay for themselves, but also the earning potential of that initial $10,000 investment in order to be worthwhile. In a decent savings account, by then end of five years, you'll have $12,762 on your $10,00
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If the efficiency is too low, then it requires to much *area*. Land is not free. The size of your roof is not unlimited.
If the price/watt is too high, then it doesn't matter how efficient it is -- it's still never going to pay for itself. I actually think you're being overly optimistic in your estimates that current solar-panels pay for themselves in 5 years.
If they did, they'd be good investments. Life-span is around 20 years, but as you say they get somewhat less efficient with ag
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That's a much better return on investment than you can make in the stock market. (The S&P 500 has returned an average of 10% a year since 1926.)
based on last year's predictions... (Score:3, Insightful)
smart pills (Score:2)
Pretty neat things though.. but I don't envy those who 'recover' the pills after theyve passed through someone.
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Combine that with its makers being able to sell more & it still being a cheaper prospect for many HM
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Re:smart pills (Score:5, Funny)
Pretty neat things though.. but I don't envy those who 'recover' the pills after theyve passed through someone.
Doctor: Well sir, you have 2 options.
Doctor: We can give you this brand new SmartPill for $500
Doctor: or you can take this recycled SmartPill we just "recovered" from an elderly gentleman with chronic diarrhea for $7.50
Patient: uh...I'll take the new one, thanks.
I'll take the recovered pill (Score:2)
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I'm waiting for SmartDrugs (Score:3, Insightful)
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What about 2006? (Score:2, Interesting)
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I dunno, Ajax [popularmechanics.com] was on that list, and it became pretty big.
Short Term Impacts? (Score:3, Insightful)
Body Area Networks (Score:5, Interesting)
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I just love these feel good tech articles. (Score:2, Offtopic)
I wish the real world would really work out like that.
Last night I watched the movie "Who killed the electric car?",
(Everyone should see it, along with and "Hacking Democracy", "Fahrenheit 911" and "An Inconvenient Truth").
In that movie, Texaco bought out the NiMH Electric car battery technology and killed it.
Then GM and Toyota took back all the EV1's and crushed them.
I
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I am hardly fatalistic, But until there is a change of the guard, we are stuck.
It's not just Big Oil, is the Old wealthy monopolies.
No one here blinks an eye when anyown critisizes Microsoft, but the Food companyies, and Oil companies and just about all monopolies start using the goverment, legal and other questionable tacktics to kill off any possible new competing technologies.
The difference here is if Solar doesn't take off like it should, say because of Big oil, then we a
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Yes, using electricity may involve burning coal. However it involves burning coal at non-moving, controllable locations where you can use relatively expensive scrubber technology and such to minimize pollution, instead of dispersing your emissions in millions of little boxes farting emissions out their backsides.
And a big bonus, you don't have to store coal byproducts for 10,000 years.
No need to store byproducts? (Score:3, Informative)
- Strydre
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Instead, the coal and power industries spew the byproducts (such as CO2 and N2O) into the air, so that everyone can breathe them in and the CO2 can fry the planet.
nuclear is inevitable! (Score:3, Informative)
No nuclear is not inevitable... Using things like the Nanosolar solar cells or one of many other promising alternate power systems.
Solar, Wind, wave, geothermal, Bio-fuels etc, it possible to recharge your electric car without Coal, oil or Natural gas.
Actually for $30K you can power your whole house just fine off the grid even sell back electricity to power your neighbors and make money from the power companies.
So with an electric car, you'd just get that charge
the PRAM mentioned there is already obsolete! (Score:2)
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PRAM (Score:2)
As a Mac user (Score:2)
In Summary (Score:3, Informative)
10) Bendable Concrete
9) PRAM (Phase-Change Random Access Memory)
8) Printed Solar Panels
7) Passport Hacking
6) Vehicle Infrastructure Integration
5) Body Area Network
4) Plasma Arc Gasification
3) VoN (Video on the Net)
2) Smart Pills
1) Data Cloud
I guess when #3 comes about, we will be living in the "VoN Age"?
Bendable concrete isn't new (Score:4, Interesting)
He'd created this by stretching a thin wire with weights along a form, then pouring the concrete. Once the concrete was set, he removed the weights, which caused the wire to shrink, compressing the concrete and rendering it much more flexible.
Admittedly, they're actually talking about a different technology in the article, but they make it sound like no-one's ever made bendable concrete before.
Yes it is. (Score:3, Informative)
The reason this allowed the beam your grandfather manufactured to be so flexible is that it was so thin - basically a steel member with a coating of concrete (probably w
BAN (Score:2)
"Let me just examine your body area network to see if I can pin-point this little problem... Do you feel a little tingeling here?"
Re:data cloud (Score:5, Informative)
This gives you countless advantages: You can get away without buying extra drives and implementing RAID. You are protected against fire, theft, and (possibly) accidental deletions. You don't have to open up an FTP channel on your local router. You aren't required to have a static IP for your home machine, and you don't have to always keep it running. You can take apart your local machine, rebuild it, and move things around without worrying about your files. You can backup things which were previously impractical to back up, such as ripping your entire DVD collection and storing it without extra compression. Sounds pretty darn good to me.
What's the business model (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:data cloud (Score:4, Insightful)
Consumer bandwidth is the problem for those services, really.
Re:data cloud (Score:5, Interesting)
Sorry, but I've been hearing about the wonders of storing all my data on some network drive for a long time now, but the storage requirements of "all my data" have been growing faster than the network bandwidth has. Until that trend is reversed, local storage is here to stay.
An example: Amazon S3 (Score:5, Informative)
Last month I backed up all my important financial and other data completely encrypted and lot more secure than I could have doen it locally. I conveniently mapped S3 to a drive letter on my local system so most programs can access it without even knowing what's going on. I mapped my Roboform password data to the drive, so I can access the same set of data files from multiple places without having to remember to always carry along a USB key. I even tried storing my Firefox profile there... though it technically worked, the problem is that Firefox accesses like a hundred files every time it starts up, and file access latency was too high to make this workable. What you use it for is really left up to your imagination. Anyway, all told, it cost me $.12 for the month.
You need three things to make this work for you:
1. An amazon S3 account
2. An online storage client that supports S3 (I use the free Jungledisk program, but there are several free clients available for Win/Mac/Linux)
3. Optionally (for Win32 users), a utility that can map webDAV drives to a physical drive letter. I use Webdrive.
Re:An example: Amazon S3 (Score:4, Informative)
300*(.20 * 4 +
I don't see how that's a reasonable rate. A 300 GB drive goes for about $100 these days. Also, compare this to Dreamhost's web hosting plan. There you can get the "Code Monster" plan which gives you 400GB of storage, 4TB transfer per month, not to mention an entire web hosting package. If you pay for 2 years up front, it costs $382. That's much cheaper and you're getting much more bandwidth usage.
Now imagine if you used all that storage and bandwidth with S3:
4000 *
Yikes! Amazon's prices seem to have little relation to the real cost of hosting and transfering data. (Disclaimer: I'm a Dreamhost customer but I have no other interest in their company.)
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I don't see how that's a reasonable rate. A 300 GB drive goes for about $100 these days.
And how will that help you if your drive dies? $1320 for 300G of managed storage for 2 years is cheap.
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If your needs are large enough to merit a dedicated file serving computer, you'll be far better off having your own system than paying through the nose monthly for this service.
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I use the Google Browser Sync [google.com] extension. It doesn't work for your extensions but it will keep bookmarks, history, cookies, And passwords synced between machines or even different operating systems or profiles on the same machine.
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You are protected against fire, theft, and (possibly) accidental deletions. You don't have to open up an FTP channel on your local router.
Keeping an off-site backup of data does protect against fire. However, you'd be relying of your service provider to protect against theft and accidental deletions. No, you wouldn't need to open a local ftp channel with o
Re:data cloud (Score:4, Informative)
A high percentage of people will have high resolution digital photos. Some users will have digital camcorders. A few will have 300 hours of their kids filmed on HD digital camcorders, which would be terabytes of data.
And practically, there is a need to back up one's CDs and DVDs, since if something happens to them, there's no other way to get them back short of repurchasing.
Re:units? (Score:4, Funny)
Re:units? (Score:4, Funny)
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If you make a 43W cell, and you can make 10,000,000 of them in 12 months, then you can make 430MW worth of cells in a year. Units are ok, just a question of whether they have the technology and resources to achieve it.
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