Google's Sinister(?) Plans 287
puppetman writes "This week, Robert X. Cringely makes some interesting observations as to what Google's up to next. He theorizes that Google is looking to create a bandwidth shortage that will drive ISP/cable/telephone customers into it's open arms (often with the blessing of the ISP/cable/telephone company). The evidence: leasing massive amounts of network capacity, and huge data centers in rural areas (close to power-generation facilities). The shortage will only occur if the average bandwidth consumption by individual consumers skyrockets; think mainstream BitTorrent, streaming moves from NetFlix, tv episodes from iTunes, video games on demand, etc, etc. Spooky and sinister, or sublime and smart?"
Google? (Score:5, Funny)
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This prediction sounds less like google and more like Skynet. Especially the "piggybacking on power-generation facilities" part.
Re:Google? (Score:5, Interesting)
Plotting for the inevitable? (Score:5, Insightful)
If you build it, they will come. If you offer something for users to use, they will use it.
It's simple reality, no evil plot required.
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I cant see how the average user's consumption coming in line with my already high bandiwdth usage would be bad. I am constantly torrenting, streaming, downloading, and playing WoW. As more people do all of these things it means i have a better chance of getting an even bett
Re:Plotting for the inevitable? (Score:5, Funny)
I know you are trying to make a point but that % of all people alive on earth today is about 1/15,000th of a person.
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Makes sense to me.
My network engineer is always telling me he's got more common sense in his pinky than all of the monkeys in my department put together.
Usually right before he changes the passwords on the switches.
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No. Just porn.
What, and miss out on a chance... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:What, and miss out on a chance... (Score:5, Funny)
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Sounds good to me
Re:Google? (Score:5, Funny)
You'll start seeing a new search results paging icon:
Eviiiiiiiiil
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Re:Here's a column for you, Cringe... (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:Google? (Score:4, Interesting)
What? Me worry? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:What? Me worry? (Score:5, Funny)
I've been waiting for something faster than dial-up for ten years!
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Dial-up? I would vote for (odious) to get dial-up! (Score:5, Funny)
Do you believe that?
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No.
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No kidding... (Score:2)
Even if they *were* evil, they could hardly do worse than the local ISPs!
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Blizzard useto have a great reputation. Now they incorporate a ton of spyware that looks at your computer's every process, in the name of "reducing cheating." And their customer support is sub-par at best, banning paying users at a whim.
I mean, these are the guys who made the Starcraft, Warcraft, and Diablo series! They i
Re:No kidding... (Score:5, Insightful)
I bought a domain for a friend as an Xmas present. I wanted to forward it to a blog (blogspot, which is owned by google). No go. Can't get an answer out of google, it's automated. I just want to cancel it and re-register the domain with another company. Google used GoDaddy for registration, and GoDaddy said they can't help me because the domain I bought is owned by Google. Sheesh.
It drove me up a wall and I'll end up letting the domain sit blank for a year and then expire and die.
$10 for the domain and 1 hour 15 minutes on the phone being bounced around GoDaddy. When Google really decides to go evil, we're all doomed. Doomed, I tells ya'. Doomed.
Re:No kidding... (Score:4, Interesting)
I know the google checkout thing is sort of secondary, but goes to show how badly companies can fuck up.
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How about google.net ? (Score:3, Interesting)
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Re:How about google.net ? (Score:5, Insightful)
Or how about... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Or how about... (Score:5, Informative)
Also, I have worked in the same datacener with Google; they have over 30 GigE feeds over dark fiber. As of a couple years ago; they had something like 60 strands per data center. Well, 60 for the larger data centers. As for tapping SBC (my current region) not likley. As for Chicago; downtown? They might give it some trouble; the city and the county have told SBC to maximize their fiber usage. The City and the County (cook) basically spanked SBC for putting too much in? How can you put in too much? Simple they put small end electronics on it; something like a chincy OC-12 or an OC-3 ring; instead of a OC-48 which is using (TTL's) Tight Transmission Lasers; ofcouse with those TTL's being sent over a DWDM system. If true; downtown is screwed; but not the state.
Now that my NDA has expired; I feel like saying:
1) Google in their data centers and beyond use Gig-Ethernet; and my suspicions is that it goes back to the Googleplex in California. Currently; they use your standard "Wester Digital HD" with Gigabyte MOBO's; using Penitum III IV proc's. Their network is done by Force 10. Each rack has between 20 and 40 servers; depending on MOBO. Each rack is seperated by an HP switch. Their core switch used to Juniper M20's and they have upgraded to T320's.
2) funny clip of the telecom industry: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj1Mtv9cD0I [youtube.com] they forgot Pacific Telesis in the video.
Cringely Didn't Say That (Score:5, Informative)
It's only the tinfoil hat slashdoters that added the word sinister.
bandwidth shortage? (Score:4, Insightful)
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Actually... (Score:2)
(Wish I were kidding...)
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The problem comes when you want to light it. Then it gets expensive.
Re:bandwidth shortage? (Score:4, Funny)
Well, if astrophysicists are to be believed, only 4% of all communications is visible fiber, 22% is dark fiber, and the remaining 74% is a strange and exotic substance called "dark light." Personally, I think they're on crack.
Skynet (Score:2, Funny)
Wild speculation (Score:2, Insightful)
The only thing he's got is google buying up loads of fiber and apparently power for their datacenters, while the immediate goal for this is as yet is unknown to us, a takeover of the internet infrastructure would be one of the less likely scenarios.
The Venice Project a.k.a. Joost (Score:2)
Seems you might be criticising him for lack of research when you haven't done any yourself. I suggest you read this thread that recently occurred on the NANOG mailing list -
Network end users to pull down 2 gigabytes a day, continuously? [mail-archive.com]
Wait a minute... (Score:2, Insightful)
Google wants to be YOUR Internet. (Score:2, Funny)
"Sinister"? wtf? (Score:5, Insightful)
How exactly would that be a bad thing (or did my not reading the article mean I completely missed the point? If so, I'm sure many a slashdotter will be correcting me)
TFA got this as backwards as possible (Score:5, Interesting)
Also, Google needs this for its long term strategy of delivering search functionality to the world without beeing controlled other fiber providers.
The bandwidht limitation is largely artifical and created by ISPs, as a revenue generating business model.
ISPs could open up the valve on all DSL lines, and not need any more fiber to support it. Maybe some cheap equipment upgrades here and there.
Example: A fiber cable may consists of a few hundred fibers delivering from 10Gb to 10TB for a total of 1-100Tb. A city like San Jose, CA, with 100k households, this gives 10Mb-10Gb per household. (And there are actually more than 1 fiber cable)
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Econ 101 Anybody? (Score:3, Informative)
This is just plain good business. Of course, there are many nutjobs (rhymes with star-heft-miberals) that will always look at big business with shifty eyes. And, Google certainly is as big-business as they come. But good strategery like this is just common sense. They are most certainly not out to create a artificial (or whatever he is implying) shortage.
And, Google builds data centers in rural areas (and gosh, everywhere else) near powerplants for economic reasons as well. Heck, look at the economics of building that new data center in SC that they announced today. Average salary is shy of $50,000 for some few hundred jobs. Compare to placing that data center in suburban Chicago or San Jose or in Manhatten. I mean, this is just math. Makes for a pretty good conspiracy theory, though.
This Cringely article comes off very tin-foil hattish. Look at all the disclaimers and suppositions and "theories." Gosh, so shocking that a big company is "secret" about their overall strategy. He wants to know Google's "secrets" (strategry) just like an analyst of the oil industry wants to know BP's strategy. Any huge corporation is not going to let that out. Google is no more "secret" than anyone else. It's just that more people are asking Google.
Re:Econ 101 Anybody? (Score:5, Insightful)
And apparently there will always be a nutjob that rhymes with moehoward who will insert random attacks on his preferred group to hate so that when he does actually make a good point, reasonable people will wonder if he really is insightful or just lucky in the same way that a broken watch still tells the correct time twice a day.
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Cringley's MO is to come up with some sky is falling scenario. Plausible or not it is discussed ad infinitum and therefore he is more well read.
I'll believe it when it happens (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:I'll believe it when it happens (Score:5, Funny)
Re:I'll believe it when it happens (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:I'll believe it when it happens (Score:4, Funny)
Aunt May did not defeat the Hulk in a fight. That's ridiculous.
Re:I'll believe it when it happens (Score:5, Informative)
But don't let things like facts and background reading stop you from being angry. Grrr! That darned Cringely! Grrr!
Try Whoswrong.com. (Score:2)
In case network neutrality breaks down... (Score:2, Insightful)
If Google owns it's own pipes, they have a level of immunity.
Re:In case network neutrality breaks down... (Score:5, Insightful)
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Bingo! (Score:2)
Of course, hedging against a breakdown in Net Neutrality isn't quite as sexy as "Google's going to become SkyNet, OMGWTFBBQ!!!"
What is he smoking? (Score:3, Insightful)
The answer is easy, Google is just trying to keep up with the monster they have created.
Re:What is he smoking? (Score:4, Funny)
No.
KFG
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Google must be conspiring with aliens, gays, and the Chinese government to need that much bandwidth.
Now please excuse me while I stock up on AA call options. I feel an aluminium foil shortage coming on.
Seriously? (Score:3, Insightful)
I for one... (Score:2)
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Financial hedging and commoditization of bandwidth (Score:5, Interesting)
-- CTH
Re:Financial hedging and commoditization of bandwi (Score:2)
Interesting.. I worked for a company that wanted to do that a couple of years back. They even claimed to be getting a patent on the idea... They'd just been bought out by this US investment company, sold on the flashy words ('if we get 1% of the bandwidth market you'll all be millionaires' and other crap (Yes the statement is factually true but the size of that 'If' dwarfs the rest of the stateme
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--CTH
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Gotta love technological steps backwards. I always thought the whole point of packet-switching is that you DON'T need 3 bazillion circuits between point A and point B. But we'll end up having them anyway since every ISP is going to be at 1% utilizatio
Pretty Wrong Conclusion (Score:5, Informative)
- Google owns (leases) tons of fiber, they control the bandwidth market.
- Google plans to build a lot of large data centers in rural areas.
- Google anticipates a massive growth in bandwidth usage due to p2p, youtube, etc.
- ISPs will be faced with buying tons of new bandwidth OR contracting with Google to use / connent to the nearby data center directly.
No sir. Google needs a lot of servers for their services. Sure they profit from their local data centers as edge proxies the same way Akamai does, but the whole theory about controlling ISPs, targeting contracts with your local ISP etc. is BS. These data centers are used for their CPU / memory power and then to minimize latency.
taking over the world? (Score:2, Insightful)
Cheap power (Score:2)
Credit where credit is due (Score:3, Insightful)
Google will not route weird advertising to you just because they get paid for it. They will do their level best to allow you to run your own searches, and find whatever it may be that you seek. Any advertising is strictly ignorable in the right column.
Granting Google the possibility of ethical and honest conduct, I can think of a more likely possibility.
AT&T, the *Mother* of all telephone companies, wants to provide net services to all their customers. As part of their "services" they intend to randomly interrupt the flow of packets, effectively degrading the truly fearsome competitor to the phone company: Vonage.
Google, with power backups and significant broadband capability, can deliver what AT&T wants to disrupt: quality Vonage or other VOIP services.
After that, who needs MS? Google can be your phone company.
I sure trust them more than I do AT&T or Ed Whitacre.
Or maybe... (Score:2)
If they build in a rural area near a power station, they save on land/rent and it would be a lot cheaper to add more power capacity when necessary. Employees have a lower cost of living, so may be willing to accept lower pay.
They only need to bandwidth to carry the data from there to the urban centers where the requests come from. Maybe on the scale of Google, it's cheaper to do things that way?
Bad strategy (Score:2)
10 years ago everyone had dial-up. It took only a decade for everyone to download/stream movies. And the technology to transport data will only get better. It won't stop at cable, at 1MB or 2MB per second. Maybe it'll even be wireless. I wouldn't strategize my business around the non-existance of a technology that WILL come,
Wrong (Score:3, Interesting)
I bet the bandwidth they're leasing is for hosting this among many of their other possibly unannounced projects. Which will have their own facility. Now imagine if they had some sort of cache synchronization routine between these facilities. And each one were devoted to cataloging the web servers hosted by that and neighboring ISPs, you think that might improve the performace of their search engine? Sorry, while I doubt all of Google's motivations are benign, they are supposed to make money after all, I seriously doubt they are planning to create a bandwidth shortage.
Story submitter bias (Score:5, Insightful)
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You wrote: "He theorizes that Google is looking to create a bandwidth shortage that will drive ISP/cable/telephone customers into it's open arms."
Please spell it out for me. What did Cringely write that suggests this sinister plot?
As far as I can tell, he is saying that Google is positioning themselves to be there when bandwidth requirements skyrocket. That's a lot different than causing a shortage to create the situation.
Downright silly conspiracy theory (Score:2)
However, I'd like to see a network infrastru
He's wrong again: it's to cache content (Score:2)
On this one, Cringely is dead wrong.
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There is nothing Evil about this. (Score:2)
Anything that drives services and network bandwidth forward and reduces it's cost is a wecome and wonderful thing.
It actually evens the playing field away from the New AT&T monopoly that controls almost all phone and cable TV today.
For the past 50 years the last mile has been the barrier keeping the Internet and any potential competition ou
Google is building an AI (Score:2)
There are two parts of an AI -- there's the information, and then there's the building relationships and queries to that information.
The Web is the information. Pretty soon, a majority of the information in the world will be within reach of Google's spiders. That's not a surprise.
But, the building the relationships between those data is the hard part. That's the cool part of Google -- they have millions of people doing that work, for free.
Google is using the queries and query patterns of t
Google (Score:4, Interesting)
What more could you ask for?
And why would Google want or care for a shortage of bandwidth? Shortages of bandwidth are not likely to happen any time soon. While processors are starting to see speed limits before we turn to physicists for help, communication lines are nowhere near the bit rate limits that are possible with current technology. Moore's law will still hold for the coming years in terms of bandwidth, at least.
Trying to get Around MS's monopoly (Score:3, Interesting)
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Not going to happen.
This is like those "Google browser based on FireFox" rumors - fun to talk about but just not going to happen.
A Google-branded desktop OS based on Linux would hurt Apple a lot more than Microsoft. Eric Schmidt, chairman and CEO of Google, is also on Apple's board. And, no, that doesn't mean there's going to be a Google-branded OS based on OS X!
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Re:Is it (Score:4, Funny)
That's harsh. What did he ever do to you?
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Re:Is it (Score:5, Funny)
Re:I've been saying for a while now (Score:5, Insightful)
We know with almost 100% certainty that if Microsoft where doing something like this, there is no possible way it would benifit the consumer. With Google, that's not such a sure thing. Maybe it's bad, maybe it's not. But with Microsoft, it's sure to be bad.
Re:I've been saying for a while now (Score:5, Insightful)
Microsoft, on the other hand, treats me like a criminal, writes software that is designed more to line their pockets than help the user get things done, and has now weaseled me into paying for XP three times over because of their shady OEM deals. And frankly, I don't even like the software very much, I only use it because of lock-in.
If someone has screwed you in the past, you expect the worst, whereas if someone has treated you well you give them the benefit of the doubt. Google has my trust until they show me that they no longer deserve it; Microsoft has already convinced me that it's up to no good. So yes, you are right, people would be up in arms if Microsoft was pulling this stuff, because people quite reasonably expect Microsoft to rip the customer off as much as possible, while taking all possible steps to force them to remain customers. People expect Google to make a damned killing off of this while actually creating a valuable service at a reasonable price. To me that goes way beyond being "not microsoft."