eBay CEO: Amazon Drones Are Fantasy 189
angry tapir writes "In the race to deliver online shopping purchases faster, drones don't impress eBay's CEO. 'We're not focusing on long-term fantasies, we're focusing on things we can do today,' John Donahue said in an interview. He was reacting to an interview Jeff Bezos, CEO of e-commerce rival Amazon, gave last weekend in which he said Amazon is investigating the use of drones for package delivery."
Sounds familiar (Score:5, Insightful)
'We're not focusing on long-term fantasies, we're focusing on things we can do today,' -former Blockbuster CEO
Re:Sounds familiar (Score:4, Insightful)
-former Nokia CEO
-former Blackberry CEO
-former Bell CEO
-former (insert dead company name here) CEO
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Creative thinking came up most great inventions, but it also came up with the Time Cube. So each instance needs to be evaluated under its own merit and not either trusting or mistrusting all "creative thinking".
THE POINT OF THE AMAZON ANNOUNCEMENT (Score:5, Insightful)
Was NOT to propose a "Drone Delivery Service" -
Instead it is a PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATION.
- 1 Normalize and socialize the idea of drones as a common, novel feature of US civilian airspace. Contextualize debate on practical advantage over risks and intrusion.
- 2 Position Amazon as a fixture in people's discourse and attention. First, during an expected competitive and difficult shopping season and ultimately for long-term.
Re:THE POINT OF THE AMAZON ANNOUNCEMENT (Score:4, Insightful)
You missed the major one:
- 0 Counter negative points raised in "The Everything Store" and recent news stories about poor working conditions in Amazon warehouses. Steer the narrative about Amazon toward how they're building the shiny future instead of how they're out-Walmarting Walmart.
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Walmart to Install Surface-to-Air Missiles on Store Rooftops to Shoot Down Amazon Drones [rockcitytimes.com]
Re:Sounds familiar (Score:4, Insightful)
We are not focusing on the next quarter, we are focusing on the next century – almost any Japanese CEO from the 80s, as they explained investments in real estate, AI, next gen mainframes, jets, robots, etc.
The rule of thumb is a 10 year time horizon for most projects. The further one plans out the shakier the assumptions are. Which is one of the reasons why I am for public spending on basic science and research. They are just looking to do cool things – the practical for profit stuff will follow.
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-former Nokia CEO -former Blackberry CEO -former Bell CEO -former (insert dead company name here) CEO
Indeed. However, it doesn't appear eBay has any serious competition at the moment. They're far and away the top online auction and online bank both afaik.
BTW, Bell is still around in many forms. They were split up into many successful smaller chunks, such as AT&T and (what is now known as) Verizon. Actually, I'd hazard a guess that each of those two pieces are bigger now than bell was before the split.
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"Long term fantasies" is one term, the ten year and the five year plan is another for the same thing. Essentially ebay is so hamstrung together they haven't the slightest understanding of what drives someone to use a service. This is similar to when the Google founders went to Yahoo! and they were told it wasn't in Yahoos!'s interest to get people to their destination more quickly or at all.
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Which appears to be arming Skynet to the teeth. ;-)
And while I for one hail our new robotic overlords, I do question whether the use of drones is really going to help things here. May I ask, WTF happened to actually making Androids / Gynoids as per the original thinking? When did that dream go out of style? If you are going to create a new 'race' of beings...are you not going to attempt to create something equal or better to your own? Ultimately, anyway. Having a swarm intelligence AI is...well, primitive c
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When it was discovered that getting a robot to walk is bloody hard. We've just barely done it with four legs. Two legs is stil way off in the distance.
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Not only that, but ebay is probably the worst offender when it comes to online shopping. The risks involved with ebay purchases are numerous and range from the "fuck you" you get from paypal to buyers demanding extra money and other ridiculous payment disputes.
Amazon's return policies are much, much clearer and subject to many less questions. They may have a bigger fee involved but they also don't subject you to terrible support, either.
Ebay vs craigslist vs amazon = amazon to sell things every time, hands
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The risks involved with ebay purchases are numerous and range from the "fuck you" you get from paypal to buyers demanding extra money and other ridiculous payment disputes
It really depends on what you're buying. A 'shrinkwrapped' version of Windows 7 from a seller in Hong Kong? For sure. A replacement brake cable for a Bugaboo baby stroller from a seller in Seattle? Odds are good the transaction will be seamless. eBay is really all about buying the right sort of thing.
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Re:Sounds familiar (Score:4, Informative)
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Physics is still physics even in your Star Trek fantasy land. That's to say nothing of the regulatory and liability hurdes. However, the main problem with these flights of fancy is the extra energy expenditure involved. It is perhaps the least energy efficient method of transport you could possibly come up with.
What do the people that actually move things around have to say about this? Amazon is just a clueless customer of someone else's delivery service.
Finally, the DVD mailer still remains the best produc
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No, he's comparing "What can I do right now with the available technology?" with "What can I do in five years that I should start working on today?"
When Blockbuster was king, streaming media on the level it is now was a dream. However, if Blockbuster tried developing something along the lines of what Netflix ended up doing, they might not be seen as a dinosaur now. Blockbuster stuck with "What can I do right now?" for too long, to the point where they couldn't catch up with what competitors had started plan
Re:Sounds familiar (Score:5, Insightful)
"Then again eBay sell stuff differently."
That's the gist of it. Although Amazon has a ton of third party sellers, they're still the main vendor. eBay, however, is built to facilitate third party sellers. Amazon owning drones would be like any company having it's own fleet of delivery vehicles that go from centralized warehouses to individual consumers. eBay owning drones would be like competing the USPS, with completely decentralized pickup/dropoff points. If I order from Amazon, there's an excellent chance it's coming from a relatively nearby warehouse. If I order from eBay, there's an excellent chance it's coming from across the country. Right now, consumers might see ordering from eBay and Amazon the same because they're both delivered by FedEx/UPS/USPS, but the logistics before that last-mile delivery are completely different and that affects the viability of why Amazon is looking at drones (IE: delivery within X minutes/hours of ordering)
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That's the gist of it. Although Amazon has a ton of third party sellers, they're still the main vendor. eBay, however, is built to facilitate third party sellers.
That's the primary difference between the fantasy world of eBay and the drone of Amazon. I seriously doubt that the orders from third party fulfillment processors for Amazon will ever be part of the drone system. Most of Amazon's processing (and probably their desired method of operation) is from their own warehouses. Most of eBay's operation (and their desired method) is the seller goes to the local UPS store and ships it himself.
Now, someday, after Amazon creates the system, UPS and FedEx may adopt it,
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I hadn't really thought about it before, but I just went to Amazon just now and looked at the menu. I found a "sell" option. You can choose to sell things personally (with deliveries potentially being fulfilled by Amazon, so I suppose that means that people can use the Prime service to receive items if you send them into Amazon first), or as a business. It's perhaps still a slightly different market to eBay, but it's definitely competing on some levels. Amazon do a lot more than just sell goods though..
http [amazon.co.uk]
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Given that they annihilated, er, acquired PayPal, a payment provider that technically has about as much to do with their core business as shipping does, I really see only two possible explanations:
1. eBay once again is clueless,
2. eBay knows full well what's coming and doesn't want to spill the beans early.
Re:Rivals? (Score:4, Informative)
They used to be much more differentiated, but they're overlapping more and more. Traditionally eBay's business was regular people selling used stuff, while Amazon's was first-party sales by Amazon. But both of them now do a lot of business in the third category of being basically the storefront for third-party businesses selling stuff. Everything from camera shop like Adorama, to third-party bookstores, now list a ton of items through both eBay and Amazon Marketplace, which is where they compete most directly.
eBay innovation? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:eBay innovation? (Score:5, Insightful)
The only innovations eBay has done in the past 2-3 years are innovative ways to charge you more money when you sell things using their service. Amazon is eating their lunch and they know it. I have sold 3x as much random junk from my house on Amazon than on eBay in recent times.
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I've always had better experiences both buying and selling on Amazon than on eBay. eBay still has its niche for that hard to find whatever that only one person has to offer, out of Taiwan, but it's just a niche - and a declining one as more people turn to Craigslist for many used items they would have previously gotten on eBay because CL is free to sell and localized (read: no shipping charges so much better for heavy items)
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CL is a total joke when it comes to search. That is, probably, why they can run so cheaply - it takes a whole lot more of infrastructure and CS know-how to have well-performing search on such a scale. They are also totally ignorant when it comes to non-local buying. They think it's somehow better to keep it local. That's lunacy in a country the size of U.S. When I was looking for a good deal on a car, sure enough it was three states away, and searching for it was a royal pain because the dumbfuck Craig thin
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For a great deal of items, local is better because you A) can see what shape it's in before you buy it and B) don't have to pay shipping. That makes it ideal for a great many items that aren't practical to sell online otherwise. It doesn't mean it's perfect for everybody, nor does it mean it's perfect for every item. Cars are one example of items people are willing to expand their search radius beyond CL's means, but even then, a good majority of people prefer to buy cars within a few dozen miles of home -
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The article indicates one:
Donahue underlined eBay Now, a service available in Chicago, Dallas and the Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens areas of New York, and the San Francisco Peninsula area. EBay Now offers delivery of goods in an hour, purchased from local stores and personally delivered by an eBay shopper.
Re :eBay innovation? (Score:2)
Nope.... The frustrating thing is, eBay has gotten away with it this long because frankly, they're "best in class" at what they do -- enabling online auction sales.
I don't know that eBay felt any real need to innovate when they're just the digital equivalent of the traditional auction house, which has remained essentially the same for hundreds of years?
Unfortunately for the users, eBay (especially with the PayPal merger) has really built an "all your base belong to us" model where they charge you to list a
Innovation?? (Score:2)
We can thank eBay for the existence of PayPal. Nuff said.
Fuck them both (Score:2)
After eBay bought PayPal they stopped letting people use other forms of payment like good old fashioned money orders or Google Checkout. Now eBay fees are ridiculous and if you only sell occasionally PayPal holds onto your money for a month or so. I've been a member for a decade and have perfect feedback but they still hold you money hostage.
Google I am begging you please offer us an alternative to shitty eBay/PayPal.
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If memory serves me correct, I think my x.com account got bought or migrated to a Paypal account.
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eBay does it anyway, so if Google did it too but otherwise provided better experience, I'd be all for it.
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Wouldn't it be better to let individuals decide whether or not the plan is a good idea for themselves? Get real moron, choice is a good thing, less choice is bad.
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Are you nuts? I like neither eBay nor PayPal, but you're delusional if you think PayPal doesn't provide a valuable and reasonably easy-to-use service. You're similarly delusional if you think that there were any alternatives that provide similar feature set - or did at the time they were still separate entities. I've been buying and selling every once in a while on eBay for more than a decade, and at no point there was any serious alternative to PayPal.
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I deal on the side in vintage & antique furniture I buy from estate sales. Probably 80% of my transitions are straight cash or checks for some of the larger items. I had square for my phone, but then I got the paypal reader for credit card transactions. When I ask customers what they'd prefer if paying by Debit/credit card they'll choose Paypal 70% of the time because they know all about it. Although that is changing as many coffeeshops in the area have started using Square.
Frankly it's a little bet
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Too early to detect sarcasm... Paypal wasn't an Ebay innovation, that's like thanking AOL for for Winamp.
Really, in what market is Ebay still a rival of Amazon ? Ebay's CEO was probably just trying trolling in the hopes of drumming up any possible publicity.
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Too early to detect sarcasm... Paypal wasn't an Ebay innovation, that's like thanking AOL for for Winamp.
Really, in what market is Ebay still a rival of Amazon ?
Well, because of this article, I'm going to look into the fees charged for selling on Amazon. I have piles of random things (board games, sterling silverware, and camera equipment right now) that I pick up somewhere and resell, but if I could do it will fewer fees on Amazon, I'll look at it.
irony (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:irony mod down (Score:3)
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Well, actually, the article would be more ironic if it were made of iron.
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I thought it was a joke (Score:2)
The Drones Worked As Planned (Score:5, Insightful)
I saw my mother shopping on Amazon.com for the first time this weekend. I asked her about it (she always claimed to prefer brick-n-mortar). Her response was, "I was thinking this year I would give Amazon a try." Amazons marketing is working.
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I think it's also marketing aimed at recruitment to some extent. Amazon wants to be a cool tech company, like Google with their self-driving cars and whatnot. There's a danger they will become seen as just a boring logistics company, a profitable high-volume/low-margin business whose main technology is "warehouses". That's a successful business strategy (look at Wal-Mart), but not cool.
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Spot on. Just for a Gedankenexperiment, ask yourself:
1. In the week before the "drone delivery" commercial appeared, how many times did the word "Amazon" enter your consciousness?
2. In the ensuing week, how many times?
They paid the cost of producing and airing one commercial. Newspapers, the 6 O'clock News, blogs -- no charge.
Of course, if I thought the system they demonstrated was about to roll out, I'd be investing heavily in pediatric and veterinary hospitals...
Your CEO (Score:2)
Your CEO should be a visionary. That's not to say, you should dump all your R & D into stuff you can't make, but if your CEO is bashing visionaries, then you seriously need to fire that idiot.
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Even if drones are nonsense as a delivery platform, their PR/advertising utility in the 'we ship your shit crazy fast' narrative that Amazon has been trying to build around 'Prime' would seemingly b
Definitely viable (Score:2)
I'd say drone delivery is something that is definitely viable and worth persuing - getting urgent medical aid to remote or difficult to reach areas is one example. That siad, I don't personally like the idea of competitors flying probably quite heavy items over densley populated areas.
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That siad, I don't personally like the idea of competitors flying probably quite heavy items over densley populated areas.
Don't worry. Quadcopters of the size they're trialing so far can't really loft anything heavier than a can of beer. This sort of service will be used to deliver small, light items that you'd otherwise have to drive to the store for because you need them right now, like a tool or a cable. On that basis, they will save money and energy because they'll eliminate a vehicle trip. It costs pretty much anyone at least a couple of bucks to drive to the store. For me, because I live on a twisty road, it takes me twe
Sour Grapes (Score:2)
Translation: Damn! Why didn't I think of this awesome ploy for free publicity during a critical selling season first?
yeah, the real future is in ebay/paypal drones (Score:2)
sheesh, i am about ready to toss the internet in the trash because of disappointment over things i bought online turned out to be cheaper than what could be found at the brick & mortar stores, at least when i drive to the brick & mortar store i can look at the actual product, when buying online all you see is a low res photo and a short description that can be mi
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Well, maybe you shouldn't be buying from people who can't sell. My listings always have separately hosted pics with 1280 pixel minimum dimension. I usually don't have any problems selling my stuff, and the buyers know exactly what they are getting.
Umm, tactical tact much? (Score:3)
Even if it's 100%-aw-hell-no-never-going-to-happen, Amazon's work so far has likely been fairly inexpensive and has certainly stirred up as much attention as a decent sized ad campaign (the sort of thing that might actually cost as much or more to produce and buy airtime to run), so it isn't as though they are wallowing in shame and loss right now.
Under those circumstances, what possible benefit is there to a not-terribly-clever rubbishing of the opposition that just makes you look unhip and non-innovative? Especially when that is basically true; direct connection of buyers and sellers worldwide, in an easy-to-use, comparatively safe, framework may have been pretty cool when ebay hit the scene, but they hit the scene quite some time ago and have mostly been ratcheting up the transaction costs since then.
I personally have strong doubts about the viability of drone delivery; but that made me interpret the Amazon stuff as a lighthearted ad piece, done as relatively cheap PR; but probably emerging from a broader 'theorizing about new stuff to sell and new ways to sell it' project that usually operates more quietly, and probably also has more mundane, but practical, notions on the burner. A "Bah, here at Ebay we only do incremental modifications based on short-term considerations, sonny!" response is... tone deaf... to say the least.
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It's not tone deaf, they clearly speak their mouth, and this is in perfect agreement with their customer-facing behavior. They're like AT&T of today, what with Bell labs a mere shadow of their former glory.
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Correction (Score:2)
Amazon drones are Christmas marketing ploy
FTFY.
So..., you're saying... (Score:3)
someday soon the crazy anthrax people (Score:2)
are going to throw a party all over this country. once drones are the accepted process, anyone with a radio and a look alike amazombie will be able to deposit malicious packages just about anywhere, fly it into a river, and be out of there before something blows up. I will feel slightly better receiving a package that i know was at least exposed to one other person before me.
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How is this any different than throwing on some brown shorts and shirt, grabbing a clipboard and doing it yourself?
Taking something mu
In related news ... (Score:2)
FTFY (Score:2)
'We're not focusing on long-term fantasies, we're focusing on profits we can get today,'
Selling on ebay they get 11% of your sale price after "fees" and then their Paypal double dip fees. and I just received an email as a power seller that the rates will be going up to basically 14% in 2014
Ebay is doing nothing but riding the money wave. They do not do anything, they have not introduced anything to help sellers or buyers, in fact it's become a turdfest where it is only worth selling on if you have a hard
In other words: (Score:2)
BAAAAWWW! We didn't think of this first! Now we aren't going to get any money from this idea! Let's blast the idea so people don't use it! Whhhaaahhh!!!
- eBay CEO John Donahue (behind closed doors)
Amazon vs eBay (Score:2)
If I want to buy something new and consumer-grade such as a DVD, games, etc - I go to Amazon.
If I want to buy something rare, used or low-cost specialized hardware/electronics sold directly from China such as SPI-driven LCDs - I go to eBay.
Anyway they're not competing on the same level. Amazon is testing out delivery by drones for the future but eBay is already installing delivery tubes in my neighbourhood. I guess Futurama was right after all!
That quote will be remembered just like.. (Score:2)
640k is enough memory... Gates
X is just a fantasy......... (Score:2)
So, he's saying that (Score:2)
they are skating to where the puck IS?
Personally, I put my money in an elaborate system of pneumatic tubes. Bring on the tube technology!
eBay's right - yet wrong (Score:2)
As you guys point out - Amazon gets a much better *marketing* from claiming they want drones. Doesn't matter if they can do it or not (obviously as of today this is technologically impossible to have this work in a reliable fashion, and probably not in 5 years either).
And in that, they're right, ie, they're getting fame, customers, money, even thus it's a cheap marketing lie. So since money is all that matters, they're "right".
However, eBay's right too, drones are currently a fantasy, and focusing on what
What happens when you get too big (Score:2)
More often than not I tend to get creeped out when companies become so big they start to see value in tweaking the rest of the world to give themselves advantage on anything from lobbying/regulatory capture, having their way with standards organizations and invading or buying out entire verticals just to control and or add barriers to meaningful competition.
In the case of Amazon I would much prefer to see the FEDEXs of the world working on flying robots and self driving delivery vehicles. If there is a nee
I stopped using both ebay and paypal (Score:2)
Yep, C-level's are SOOO much smarter than . . . (Score:2)
the rest of us!
"We're not focusing on long-term fantasies, we're focusing on things we can do today," John Donahue said in a televised interview with Bloomberg TV Friday morning.
Ouch, his tie must be too tight. 20 years ago, Ebay was a "long-term fantasy". Imagine, a VIRTUAL AUCTION house where anyone on the planet can throw money at you!
Idiot suit.
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Especially the part of discounting or ridiculing creative ideas.
Cue "They all laughed at Christopher Columbus... [sing365.com]"
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Columbus makes an interesting poster boy for creativity. He was, of course, wrong (In 1492, any educated person knew the world was round; the proofs of it are readily seen by anyone who looks. The point of disagreement was how large it was. Columbus thought it was smaller than the general opinion, which made the Indies a reachable distance away sailing west. However, he was wrong; the generally accepted figure of the size of the world was correct (and sur
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And the biggest ones are on paper... (Score:3)
The drone-package-delivery story seems to be rather unrealistic to me, just for the liability reasons--considering the one guy who died after flying his own RC helicopter into his head.
More likely they would just hire local people to deliver stuff using their own cars for minimum wage (or not-much-more than minimum wage).
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A quick analysis of the numbers and mechanisms shows it is not doable today. And it may remain massively uneconomic for the foreseeable future. It is a pipe-dream of people that desperately want to be modern, but have no clue about realities.
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Yes... for certain values of A and B. If you're delivering to a business in a building with a helicopter port. Delivering to a front porch is entirely different. Then there's the matter of how many will be in the air... maybe Amazon only has a few for "important" immediate deliveries that people are paying a lot extra for, but then if Amazon does it, how many other companies will be allowed to do it?
How many drones can you allow in the air? Like segways... might be OK if a few people used them, but if e
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The technical part is less scary, there are already drones with some redundancy which are able to fly with 1 or 2 motors out. Some are capable of some extreme autonomous ac
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They have a self destruct and carry 4 kilos of C4 explosives on board, in the event of a sudden drop in altitude they detonate and make sure no part falling is larger than a golf ball.
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Except that people don't fly those drones, they fly themselves. That's what would allow there to be massive numbers of them, flying all at once, avoiding each other, etc. The same as if everyone has self-driving cars, we wouldn't need any roads with 3 or more lanes of traffic.
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You said it. For a clearly marked place 'A' and a clearly marked place 'B' and a clean airspace in between and ignoring any economic factors, yes. This is called a "lab experiment' and has little impact on reality. Case in point: There have been people on the moon. Do we have regular service there or a permanent presence? No. The economics just do not work out at all, even 40 years later. And your minimal wage delivery man will be far, far cheaper for the foreseeable future. I am not being anti-tech here. I
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A quick analysis of the numbers and mechanisms shows it is not doable today. And it may remain massively uneconomic for the foreseeable future. It is a pipe-dream of people that desperately want to be modern, but have no clue about realities.
Your numbers fail when your logistics are dumb.
Picture this: UPS or other delivery truck driving around, Delivering packages. Any that don't have special delivery options or require anything more than photographic proof of delivery are kept in the back section of the truck, stacked according to route, and accessible by a drone or two. The delivery guy drives slow and stops every so often to give the drones a chance to pick up the next package, perhaps he helps them secure packages while not servicing the o
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Protip: If you do not understand economics of things, don't try to pretend otherwise.
The human doing the manual delivery is actually extremely cheap compared to the drones. And has a whole lot more fault-tolerance even if he is a barely employable moron.
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"I am concerned about the technical challenges, such as a 10 pound drone being buffeted by 25 mph gusts of wind, can it stay on track?"
Indeed, We some delivery system that can take heavier packages, multiple packages and multiple deliveries on a specific route.
Preferably one where 'neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds.'
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Can you easily grab a UPS truck and stuff it in your car trunk?
And yes UPS/Fedex package theft is a problem.
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There's a big difference between grabbing a drone and a truck.
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Bummer, I was hoping for the steady stream of free drone parts...
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They laughed at Robert Fulton...
And they laughed at the Wright Brothers...
And they laughed at Bozo the Clown.