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Transportation

The Driverless Future: Buses, Not Taxis 257

jfruh writes Driverless vehicles are coming. The question is: what form will they take? Uber's management has suggested that, rather than owning our own private, autonomous cars, we'll all be glad to pay Uber by the trip for a private ride in one. But an Italian consultant working on experimental driverless vehicles in Europe thinks that the future will lie with automated buses, because driverless cars, "may be able to go and park themselves out of harm's way, they may be able to do more trips per day, but they will still need a 10 ft wide lane to move a flow of 3600 persons per hour ... their advantages completely fade away in an urban street, where the frequent obstacles and interruptions will make robots provide a performance that will be equal, or worse than, that of a human driver, at least in terms of capacity and density."
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The Driverless Future: Buses, Not Taxis

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  • Was on a bus once (Score:2, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward

    Heading to Dallas, Cotton Bowl, TXJAM III. Bus, back seat, center. Driver came back to look around at a side-of-road stop. I notice the bus was rolling backwards! I said, the bus is rolling back. He said, "What?". I said, "look out the window." He RUNS up front and hits the brakes. I saved the day. Gas pumps, etc. Now would it be better without a driver?

    • Re:Was on a bus once (Score:4, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 30, 2014 @08:50AM (#48490443)

      Yes, it would be better. A robot driver wouldn't forget to put on the parking brake like this idiot did.

      • by flyneye ( 84093 )

        "Westworld, where nothing can go wrong, go wrong, go wrong, go wrong..."

        Sorry, but, I know how this story turns out.

    • Re:Was on a bus once (Score:5, Interesting)

      by LinuxIsGarbage ( 1658307 ) on Sunday November 30, 2014 @10:00AM (#48490709)

      Similar situation: I was on an older bus, some passengers leave the via the back door, the driver goes to pull away from the stop but can't because the bus thinks the back doors are open (green light on). Bus driver gets up, goes the the back door, pulls the doors closed. The green light goes off, brakes release, and the bus starts rolling down the road. He didn't seem that concerned when people point it out to him. He should have pulled the parking brake before leaving his seat (which I assume is standard procedure). Transit company didn't seem that concerned either when I reported it.

      The door-brake interlock on modern busses require that the drive have his foot on the brake when the door closes to release the interlock. Sometimes you'll notice after the door closes they try to drive away, but the engine just revs. They push the brakes, and then are able to go.

      In either case these are bad drivers, and hopefully an automated driver would keep to the SOP. There are many cities with driverless subways that function without problem.

  • by Entrope ( 68843 ) on Sunday November 30, 2014 @08:51AM (#48490449) Homepage

    If you go from ten single-occupancy cars to a ten-passenger bus, you've eliminated 90% of the vehicles at the (relatively low) cost of adding one more driver. Eliminating the bus driver gets you from eleven people in the bus to ten, which is probably not as important as other efficiency improvements. Also, buses are awful unless you have quite high population density -- lots of areas don't have enough prospective trip endpoints to justify mass transit.

    • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 30, 2014 @08:56AM (#48490479)

      If you go from ten single-occupancy cars to a ten-passenger bus, you've eliminated 90% of the vehicles at the (relatively low) cost of adding one more driver. Eliminating the bus driver gets you from eleven people in the bus to ten, which is probably not as important as other efficiency improvements. Also, buses are awful unless you have quite high population density -- lots of areas don't have enough prospective trip endpoints to justify mass transit.

      The reduction from eleven people to ten is very worth while, as the driver is being paid to be there everyone else is paying to be there.

      Have you considered that the reason that buses are awful in low density areas is because there is not enough traffic to justify the overhead of a driver? Autonomous buses would have lower overheads and would make some currently un-profitable routes worth while.

    • by ILongForDarkness ( 1134931 ) on Sunday November 30, 2014 @09:35AM (#48490611)

      Bus drivers, at least where I live, are pretty well paid + nice benefits. Saving 50-100k a year X 2(presumably the bus is running more than a single shift a day) is worth it. The errors drivers do are worth it. Drivers often don't notice people at stops, nearly drive pass the one that you want so drive erratically to get over to the stop, take a washroom break at the terminal and come back to the bus a few minutes after it was supposed to leave etc. The scheduling headaches of planning around lunch breaks, vacation, calling in sick etc is worth it assuming that the robots have a better uptime than a human (not a hard feat to accomplish).

      I agree a bus has diminishing returns but I think you missed the most important thing: the time of the passengers. People that drive are basically doing no valuable task for the whole time they are driving other than getting themselves from A-B. Replacing each car with a robot at least saves that for each driver freeing them up to read, do paperwork, etc other potentially paid work. It turns valueless time to (potentially) valued time for at least 1/5 people (assuming people are driving fully occupied sedans which we know is usually not the case). That is the entire reason I commute with public transit rather than drive. I'd rather spend 3hr a day commuting and being able to read and watch shows on my tablet during that time than 2hrs a day doing nothing but driving, that and the cost savings makes it a no brainer for me.

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        I'm commuting to work using public transport for 5 years now.

        Believe me, you can't do anything useful when you stand in tightly packed crowd, and this is how public transport in rush hours usually looks like.

    • by c ( 8461 )

      Also, buses are awful unless you have quite high population density -- lots of areas don't have enough prospective trip endpoints to justify mass transit.

      I have a suspicion that if you remove the driver labour costs, running small (10-12 seats?) passenger buses in areas of lower population densities becomes quite feasible, particularly if you can combine it with a certain amount of smart route/demand planning.

      • by bondsbw ( 888959 )

        And I don't see why it has to be one-or-the-other. There can still be automated buses that services main routes, and smaller automated buses/taxis that work on a reservation system to drive people to and from the main bus system.

    • Eliminating the bus driver gets you from eleven people in the bus to ten, which is probably not as important as other efficiency improvements.

      Not true. The driver is the single biggest cost of operating a bus. More than gas, maintenance, and capital costs combined. Once you eliminate the driver, then you can use small vans instead of big buses, run them much more frequently, and further out into the suburbs ... which means they will be more convenient and used by more people. Getting rid of the driver changes everything.

      • by Entrope ( 68843 )

        Yes, and you have effectively described Uber's concept for driverless transport. It won't look anything like today's buses, and the only real similarity is that strangers share road vehicles.

    • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

      buses are awful unless you have quite high population density

      The way we run them, they're awful even with high population density, because we charge the same price if you take a bus to the next stop or to the end of the line. In other words, we overcharge for short trips and undercharge for long ones. This keeps the financing perpetually in the red, and encourages long commutes (particularly for those whose time is worth the least), which adds to traffic congestion.

      • by Entrope ( 68843 )

        The last time I frequently used a US bus system -- about 15 years ago, in Pittsburgh -- they used a zone system, with the fare based on your origin and destination zones, and most bus routes crossing at least one zone boundary. The last time I used a public bus -- about 5 years ago, in Japan (Yamanouchi, Nagano Prefecture) -- riders took a numbered ticket when they boarded, and their exact fare to the next stop was displayed on an LCD panel. I would guess that US cities avoid exact metering in order to s

    • Perhaps if the bus driver makes minimum wage. But then, would you want to be driven by someone who makes minimum wage?

      Subways are easy to automate, it's been done in countless cities, but there you have an average of 100-200 passengers per driver which really does make it pretty pointless to eliminate the driver.
  • This is way out there, unlikely to happen, but just maybe there will be a combination of cars and buses? Maybe if you have a similar starting location and stopping location and time as hundreds of other people you will take mass transit, and if you do not fall into an easy categorisation as everyone else you will have custom options?

    I know, that is crazy. No system would ever be built like like.
  • But who is going to supervise the children and stop[ fights and bullying? I can't see a robot being very effective on typical school buses.

    Or are we talking about coaches? (The long distance buses run by Greyhound and Jefferson Lines) ?

    I thought the whole point of automated cars was to improve safety by taking the distracted amateur out of the drivers seat, and also permit impaired people (whether disabled, intoxicated or just tired) to have personal transportation which is necessary in most non-metropolita

  • Why does the answer have to be either 'taxi' or 'bus' when it's possible to combine the two and have a sensible multi-drop scheme? This would need a decent number of users (Higher than that needed to sustain a local bus company, I'd guess), but would manage to combine the two nicely, and with computerised routing of vehicles should be practical.

    Like a taxi you book from where you are, and it'll come to collect you there and drop you off at your requested destination. Unlike a taxi though there could be ot

    • by swb ( 14022 )

      I'm sure this will be disputed, but I think there's a segment of transit advocates that's almost ideologically opposed to transportation in single user vehicles, and the closer those vehicles are to private cars the more opposed they are.

  • A large proportion of people will not willingly share their commute space with others. Since people who "vote with their feet" seem to prefer to drive their own cars in privacy to sharing a vehicle, route and schedule with other people the rider may not like, it will take more than engineering to get the intended result. It will mean, eventually, either outlawing ownership of private cars in certain places or making permissions prohibitively expensive.

    I see a big, expensive failure in this. Nevertheless,

  • Could we robotize the baggage handling system first? Driverless luggage carriers and robots won't need background checks, won't pilfer, and don't interact with third parties out in the tarmac (less likely to encounter ambulance chasing lawyers out to sue Google for fender bending).
  • I may be taking public transport, or share a car with people, but NEVER using a service provided by that company.
  • by Anonymous Coward

    In the US driverless cars will win, generally because the US infrastructure and cities are built for car ownership; generally speaking US cities have a lower population density than other countries. In larger, higher density cities such as in China and some parts of South America, buses will be the way to go as they're decently clean and having too many cars in those high density cities is a huge negative. In many European cities it'll be a mixed bag; I see small driverless cars being useful in the tight

  • by John.Banister ( 1291556 ) * on Sunday November 30, 2014 @11:55AM (#48491227) Homepage
    Driverless electric cars that don't go faster than 20 mph don't need to be very aerodynamic. Parts of people's routes are often shared, or park-n-rides wouldn't work. Driverless cars could slowly go to assembly spots where they link up into trains, and then the trains go fast on predetermined routes to other spots where they disassemble back into cars that slowly travel the last 1/8 mile to individual destinations. It'll enact the functionality of public transport for people wealthy enough to own personal pods. The big problem is the space consumed protecting against impact from human driven vehicles.
  • And the "driverless" part is entirely optional. Cities with good public transportation already demonstrate how it is done.

    • This.

      We already have automated buses, single cars, and long-haul trucks that arrive automatically, on-demand. Every large city already has a network of them.
      It just so happens there's a person in the driver's seat today. In the near future there may be a computer in that seat. Nothing else changes, from a transportation angle.

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • in Europe they have free health care so if you lose your job you are ok but in the usa the union will fight like hell to keep the jobs.

  • Driverless allows high efficiency very small people movers. Buses are per person mile very inefficient in energy use, pollution and especially convenience. They are only efficient in the first two when full to capacity which they are only during major commute rushes. The future of self-driving vehicles is highly flexible, electric powered, on demand minimal vehicles for the job. Anything else is nonsense.

    • Re:wrong direction (Score:4, Informative)

      by serviscope_minor ( 664417 ) on Monday December 01, 2014 @05:24AM (#48496007) Journal

      Buses are per person mile very inefficient in energy use, pollution and especially convenience. They are only efficient in the first two when full to capacity which they are only during major commute rushes.

      That's not true. Busses even when pretty empty are efficient. A modern bus weighs about 8 times that of a small car, is a hybrid (which really does help substantially for city driving) and has a single large engine which is generally a bit more efficient than a collection of smaller ones. As a result a bus only needs a few people on board before it matches a car for efficiency.

      Given a maximum capacity of about 90 people, I'd estimate that even at 10% full the bus will win in terms of efficiency. There are other factors which probably help in the busses favour, since busses aren't built for high acceleration and are also driven by more competent professionals than cars on average.

      Anyway I found this:

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-e... [bbc.co.uk]

      Seems that busses are in the range 5 to 8 MPG roughly. Cars are largely around the 30 mark for decent cars. At that point even the worse busses only need 6 passengers to equal the efficieincy of single occupancy cars.

      The average occupancy in the UK is apparently 1.58:

      http://www.publications.parlia... [parliament.uk]

      meaning compared to the worse busses you'd need 9 people to match the efficiency of cars, with the least efficient busses. Coincidentally, this is about the same as the average bus occupancy in the UK as well.

      People tend to use busses differently from cars. During commuting, occupancy is only 1.2 per car and busses are fuller.

      So, I'd say your claim that busses are inefficient are misplaced.

  • by EmperorOfCanada ( 1332175 ) on Sunday November 30, 2014 @08:25PM (#48494279)
    I suspect that the line between buses and taxis will simply blur. Generally we define a bus as something that follows a fixed route and a taxi as something that will take you from point to point. Right now you can get some airport shuttles that will pick you up at your house and most taxis will allow you to share a ride with someone who has a slightly different destination.

    But for me one of the most important groups of drivers are commuters. They are a huge bunch who all pile onto the roads twice a day at roughly the same two times. Then their cars sit and do nothing for most of the remainder of their existence. When people talk about driverless cars reducing the need for ownership they are forgetting that the benefit of shared ownership is that the asset is kept busy for the maximum amount of time. But if every commuter switched to a cab then either there wouldn't be enough cabs or then a huge number cabs would end up only run twice a day and the fee for supporting such a large number of assets would be roughly in line with personal ownership.

    Thus any solution that economically deals with consumers will be one of the dominant uses of driverless vehicles. I suspect that it will be through the use of mini-buses doing a carpool like car share. People will arrange for a pickup and a destination and then will allow the service to figure out the optimal grouping of passengers to minimise time and distance while servicing the maximum number of passengers. These same mini-buses could be of all kinds of sizes depending upon the areas being serviced and their use during the remainder of the day.

    The above does not preclude normal transit services or normal taxi services but what it does do is to potentially service a huge percentage of drivers with a service that meets their critical needs of point to point service that is very reliable for the least amount of cost.

    This last bit is critical as many people forgo public transit because most transit services are notoriously unreliable or not conveniently structured and this could cost many people their jobs. So they grab their expensive chunk of metal and drive it alone to work.

    Years ago I took a bus to work and it was a nightmare. It was only that my work was judged on productivity not arriving at a set time that I could do this. Quite simply the bus would often strand me with a 40 minute walk after taking 30 minutes to get me to that point. Yet in my general area there were about 6 of us going to that one company alone. This was a business park and I suspect that within a 5 minute drive of my place that there were hundreds all going to the business park. Not enough for a regular hourly bus run but ideal for some sort of car pooling system. It was only that we were incompetent boobs that we could never quite structure an effective car pool. Also the lack of a fixed start time made it even harder. But a computer run system should be able to work just fine.

    So the key is to not look at this from a moving people around point of view but by asking what are people's priorities. For most I suspect that on time all the time is critical for a transit system and that the cost merely has to stay below operating a personal vehicle. But for ever little bit of unreliability in the system there will be a massive exodus as the cost of being fired will wildly outweigh the cost of a personal vehicle.

    That is a microeconomic consideration but there is also a macroeconomic consideration; this is how a highly functional low cost public transit system can vastly reduce many costs and improve the economics of a city. If people aren't having to buy cars and are spending less time in traffic or on an inefficient transit system there will be more money available for local economics and higher local productivity. Plus fewer cars on the road can translate to a smaller roads budget which ideally either means more public spending on good things (parks etc) or lower taxes. Also many businesses require timely delivery of goods and thus many bu

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