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Transportation Earth Stats

U.S. Passenger Vehicle Fleet Dirtier After 2008 Recession 176

MTorrice writes The 2008 recession hammered the U.S. auto industry, driving down sales of 2009 models to levels 35% lower than those before the economic slump. A new study has found that because sales of new vehicles slowed, the average age of the U.S. fleet climbed more than expected, increasing the rate of air pollutants released by the fleet.

In 2013, the researchers studied the emissions of more than 68,000 vehicles on the roads in three cities—Los Angeles, Denver, and Tulsa. They calculated the amount of pollution released per kilogram of fuel burned for the 2013 fleet and compared the rates to those that would have occurred if the 2013 fleet had the same age distribution as the prerecession fleet. For the three cities, carbon monoxide emissions were greater by 17 to 29%, hydrocarbons by 9 to 14%, nitrogen oxide emissions by 27 to 30%, and ammonia by 7 to 16%.
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U.S. Passenger Vehicle Fleet Dirtier After 2008 Recession

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  • by TWX ( 665546 ) on Thursday December 11, 2014 @04:36PM (#48575797)
    Vehicles are emission-tested based on specifications determined for their model-year of manufacture. In emissions-testing areas, those vehicles still have to meet those requirements for at least 25 years post-manufacture, sometimes they must meet them, PERIOD. We emissions-test everything 1967+ that was not exempt at manufacture.

    Even if they're dirtier than they were when brand-new, they're still within-spec.
    • by dywolf ( 2673597 )

      sure, they meet the emissions...for theyear they were made.

      is that not the point the article is making? that if not for the recession's impact on sales there would have been a larger fraction of the total fleet of cars made up of newer cars with lower emissions, which would have the effect of lowering the overall average emissions of the fleet as a whole. but because of the recession those sales never occured, which leaves the average emissions of the fleet as a whole higher than would have happened had the

      • by TWX ( 665546 )
        Calling them "dirtier" is wrong then. Less-clean-than-expected would be accurate. They didn't get dirtier, they simply sold less vehicles to make the air cleaner than it has been without them.
        • Calling them "dirtier" is wrong then. Less-clean-than-expected would be accurate. They didn't get dirtier, they simply sold less vehicles to make the air cleaner than it has been without them.

          Older cars and older engines get to the point where seals, gaskets, etc. start to decay enough that they allow oil into the engine. This causes the exhaust to become "dirtier". It's cheaper for most people to burn oil than it is to get the engine seals replaced. So, yes, the cars do get dirtier over time. For example, my 2003 Nissan Murano was going through a quart of oil a month from years 8 through 10 (older Nissan engines are known to do this). About 18 months ago I traded it in for a new Jeep that

    • We emissions-test everything 1967+ that was not exempt at manufacture.

      Who is we? The federal emissions regulations don't require testing of every vehicle. That is up to the states. Most of them don't check.

      Allow me to explain how emissions testing works. A vehicle is assigned an "end of useful life" by the EPA based on the type of vehicle. The manufacturer then ages the vehicle artificially by running it 24/7. The manufacturer then has to test the aged vehicle to show compliance. This typically means the emissions from a new vehicle are much lower than an old one. Ev

      • >California added an diagnostic requirement that says your "Check Engine" light has to come on if it's likely you aren't meeting the emissions regulations. How many people drive around with that thing on?

        So now, the natural response to a check engine light is to get out and tighten the petrol tank cap, since 99.99999653% of all check engine light lightings are caused by the evaporative emissions is buggered warning.

        • Comment removed based on user account deletion
          • > An EGR (exhaust gas recirculation) code is exceedingly common in which the valve is stuck or too much carbon buildup obstructing it.

            I argue that it is almost always because the petrol tank cap isn't on tightly enough. Especially in Oregon where someone pumps your gas for you and screws up screwing on the cap. Other things happen, but not with anything close to the frequency of that cause.

    • That's how it works in YOUR state. Neither of the states that I have lived in mandate any sort of emissions test.

    • Some people are bypassing some emissions controls to get better mileage. Some techniques are ease to reverse for emissions checks like a BB in the vacuum line that opens the EGR valve on a diesel.
    • Vehicles are emission-tested based on specifications determined for their model-year of manufacture. In emissions-testing areas, those vehicles still have to meet those requirements for at least 25 years post-manufacture, sometimes they must meet them, PERIOD. We emissions-test everything 1967+ that was not exempt at manufacture.

      In California, vehicles are tested if they are newer than 1973 or 1975 or something, I always forget because let's face it — American vehicles of that era are garbage, even trucks. You want 1969 (maybe '70, occasionally '71 for some models) or older for pretty much everything, or a much much newer vehicle before it's worth a crap. But wait; diesels which didn't come with emissions equipment so far don't have to have it if they are used for personal use. Commercial vehicles, on the other hand, have had

    • by ksheff ( 2406 )
      And a big reason that they're much dirtier than when they're brand new is due to people not following their manufacturers' maintenance schedules and skip doing periodic checks & operations in order to save a few bucks here & there.
  • by ebrandsberg ( 75344 ) on Thursday December 11, 2014 @04:39PM (#48575819)

    The question is if replacing the fleet would have triggered production based pollution that offset any gains. Making new cars isn't a pollution free activity after all. The net result may have been a reduction in worldwide pollution instead.

    • by Geoffrey.landis ( 926948 ) on Thursday December 11, 2014 @05:31PM (#48576305) Homepage

      Exactly.
      Manufacturing a car produces a significant amount of pollution. If the recession means that fewer cars were sold, and instead the existing cars were used longer, this would reduce pollution.
      Unless this effect is accounted for, the headline here is meaningless.

      from www.autolife.umd.umich.edu/Environment/E_Overview/E_Overview2.htm [umich.edu]:
      "Historian Mark Foster has estimated that “fully one-third of the total environmental damage caused by automobiles occurred before they were sold and driven.” He cited a study that estimated that fabricating one car produced 29 tons of waste and 1,207 million cubic yards of polluted air. Extracting iron ore, bauxite, petroleum, copper, lead, and a variety of other raw materials to process steel, aluminum, plastics, glass, rubber, and other products necessary to construct automobiles consumes limited resources, uses great amounts of energy, and has serious environmental repercussions."

      see also:
      http://www.theguardian.com/env... [theguardian.com]

      • by vux984 ( 928602 ) on Thursday December 11, 2014 @06:54PM (#48577213)

        Manufacturing a car produces a significant amount of pollution

        But it doesn't produce it downtown L.A.

        Unless this effect is accounted for, the headline here is meaningless.

        Not if your interested in the air quality in downtown L.A.

        L.A. is dirtier right now than it otherwise would have been without a recession. That's not meaningless.

        Total pollution footprints are interesting in their own right but they aren't the only conversation worth having.

    • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Thursday December 11, 2014 @06:11PM (#48576741) Homepage Journal

      We talked about this back during the debunking of the CNW report that claimed that a Hummer and a Prius had a similar environmental footprint, har dee har har. What the report showed is that you can still lie (badly) with statistics if you are willing to be a dumbass. But what we dug up is that production of the average vehicle only consumes about 1/4 to 1/3 of its lifetime energy production. In order to make the Prius come out even with a Hummer, it had to fail around 100,000 miles and you had to barely drive the Hummer every year, but it had to make it to 300,000 without major maintenance. But even for a passenger vehicle, you can achieve a useful improvement in energy consumption with a feasible improvement in energy efficiency even before taking account of the downstream effects of that car purchase. Typically you sell the old car, and then someone else lets go of theirs when they buy it, and eventually somewhere down the line a really crap car hits the scrap heap and everyone wins.

      Unfortunately, that's actually kind of unlikely in passenger cars even though it's possible, because people want pissed-off cars and the trend is to continue to offer more and more horsepower, although these days the mileage is not going straight into the toilet so I guess that's some kind of improvement. However, just 1 or 2 mpg improvement on a commercial vehicle that sees 500,000 miles or an OTR truck which might conceivably see millions (and most of them in the single digits) is going to make a significant difference, so the improvements are especially meaningful in fleet vehicles.

  • by michaelmalak ( 91262 ) <michael@michaelmalak.com> on Thursday December 11, 2014 @04:42PM (#48575837) Homepage

    From the actual abstract [acs.org]:

    Using fleet fractions from previous data sets, we estimated age-adjusted mean emissions increases for the 2013 fleet to be 17–29% higher for carbon monoxide, 9–14% higher for hydrocarbons, 27–30% higher for nitric oxide, and 7–16% higher for ammonia emissions than if historical fleet turnover rates had prevailed.

    The article shows that the actual 2013 fleet is dirtier than the hypothetical 2013 fleet where the age distribution matches the 2007 fleet age distribution.

    It does not show that the actual 2013 fleet is dirtier than the actual 2007 fleet. It's a question not addressed by this study, but I would be surprised if actual 2013 was dirtier than actual 2007.

  • Now what would have been the environmental cost of manufacturing and transporting all those cars, and disposing of the ones they replaced?

  • by Enry ( 630 ) <enry@@@wayga...net> on Thursday December 11, 2014 @04:44PM (#48575857) Journal

    But from a raw amount, the price of gas dropped since fewer people were driving to work, and fewer goods were being shipped, so I'd have to guess that the total number of miles driven during that time dropped as well. The per-mile amount of pollutants that went out may have been higher, but the total amount that went out may have been far less than a few years before.

    • Gas was very expensive during that time as well. I remember it peaking around $5 around that time. I only drove my vehicle to commute to work and back and that was it. Too costly to go on a trip.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday December 11, 2014 @04:45PM (#48575865)

    The cost of replacing a vehicle today.

    When manufacturers are offering 72 and 84 month financing on a car it might indicate the prices are a tad out of line with the income of the buying public. My 13 year old pickup still runs well and is in pretty good shape rust wise (one spot on the drivers door). The kicker is, it's paid for. A repair now and then is nothing compared to the $30k+ cost of replacing it.

    • I think this is a big problem as well. Cars keep on getting more complicated and adding more and more standard features. As a result, owning a new car is something that many people only dream of. Many people are driving second, third, or fourth hand cars that a decade or more old. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as vehicle production creates quite a lot of pollution, and you don't want everybody trading in automobiles every year like they do with cell phones. And it also means cars are lasting a long
  • by enjar ( 249223 ) on Thursday December 11, 2014 @04:51PM (#48575927) Homepage

    My wife and I were both laid off within a week of each other during the tech bubble bursting in 2001. That was a real wake-up call to do things differently with respect to money and spending. She was lucky and got another job two weeks after being laid off, it took me seven months. During that time, we really cut back on a lot of stuff and really started watching the money coming in and out. When the economy was on the mend and our positions seemed pretty secure, we replaced our old cars when new ones -- mine in 2002 and hers in 2007. I'm still driving the 2002 (it just clicked over 200K miles) and hers is still ticking along fine at 120K. Both vehicles have a few cosmetic problems (scrapes, dents, etc -- general aging, nothing horrible), but are still reliable and have been fully paid off for years. We have cash in the bank to procure replacements when they need to be replaced. As long as they are reliable and safe, there's no real compelling reason to get new ones. Even when we have to sink some money into a repair (maintenance doesn't really count -- you'd have to do that on a newer vehicle, too), the money spent on repair is generally far less than the X number of months since we had to repair something if we had a car payment. I'm also reasonably handy so I can do a lot of the work myself, which keeps the cost down -- when the windshield washer motor went out recently, I was able to replace it for under $20, no paying a mechanic $80/hr plus $20 for the part. I do turn big jobs over to the mechanic (like the timing belt), but routine stuff I can do.

    When the car starts having serious trouble (e.g. electrical faults, won't start reliably, etc), a major component goes (e.g. engine/transmission) or if it becomes unsafe to drive (corrosion -- we live in the rust belt, although rust isn't nearly as bad as it used to be), we'll get a replacement. But until then I'm fine putting money away and letting it work for me and driving the thing as far as I can without having to spend the money on a replacement.

    So we soldier on with our 13 year old car and 8 year old car, that would have been rust bucket jalopies when I was a kid, but due to better technology they are still quite viable as reliable transportation.

    • We're doing the same with our cars. I got my new car in 2009 when my old car (a 1999 model IIRC) began having major problems. My wife's minivan we purchased before our first son was born in 2003. Both of our cars are paid off now and we're "basking" in not having car payments. (Where "basking" really means the money gets drained out of our bank accounts in other directions like home repairs.)

      My father questioned why we wouldn't just replace our cars with newer models. He seems to think any car over 3 y

      • by enjar ( 249223 )

        Home repairs and children ... we also similar money drains in our house.

        My dad was definitely of the "paid for is great" persuasion, our family cars were driven well past the 150K mark ... which was something of an achievement for automobiles made in the 80's. Not impossible to do by any means, but today's autos can really sail by the 150K mark a lot easier than their 80's counterparts.

        It seems 3 years would be an awful time to trade in, you take an enormous hit the first year and then you likely just paid

      • your dad isn't wrong, just different view. if you aren't willing to drive a car for 10+ years, there is a sweet spot for the trade in somewhere around 3-4 years. the dumbest thing is trading in at 6 years (of course, this all depends on financing, and the particular car).

        • Exactly. His view is that you trade in every 3-4 years to always have the newest model car and likely least mechanical issues. My view is you drive your car 10+ years and get a new car when you start getting major mechanical issues. I don't drive many miles and take good care of my car, but problems do happen. I had a muffler/exhaust issue a couple of months ago that cost me about $600 to fix. This is only about 2 car payments, though. The car has been paid off for about 11 months, so even paying for

    • by trparky ( 846769 )
      My car is a 2004 Pontiac Vibe which is really nothing but a re-badged Toyota Matrix. And you know what they say about Toyota's right? Do your regular maintenance like change the oil when you're supposed to and the thing will run until doom's day.
    • by k6mfw ( 1182893 )

      I've never bought a new car, always used cars (around 40K to 60K in mileage) and drive them till they drop (around 200K). Last one had 220K but failed smog check as one of cylinders had a leak of some sort. Other vehicles that got up to 200K I dumped because their transmissions failed (replacement costs more than the car). My latest is a 2008, I prefer an older because windows of new cars are getting smaller but yet MPG of this vehicle is much better than my previous vehicles.

      It seems there are some peopl

    • 13 years == barely outside the factory gate. 25, 30, 40 years is old for a car but not 13
  • by Ichijo ( 607641 ) on Thursday December 11, 2014 @04:53PM (#48575955) Journal

    This is why we should keep the gas tax even after implementing a mileage fee. In fact, the cost of dirty air is up to $1,600 per person annually [fullerton.edu] in medical costs and lost work days. Shouldn't the polluters pay those costs?

    • by alen ( 225700 )

      and of course we need to use the money to build your precious bike lanes

      • Bike lanes are a horrible idea. Bikes are not cars! They should not mix with cars in traffic. It's better to just let them up on the sidewalk. Most sidewalks aren't that occupied with walkers anyway. On the occasion that a biker and a walker do collide... injury. Car or truck and bike... death. Think about it.

        The exception... I'm not talking about big metropolitan areas. That is a different world from the majority of land area. There the sidewalks really are full of people, the traffic is slower and

        • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

          Drivers don't expect anything on the sidewalk to enter a crosswalk at the speed of a bicycle, so the only safe way to ride a bicycle on a sidewalk is to dismount at every intersection. This just isn't very practical for transportation.

          On roads where speed limits are high, bike lanes are more practical.

          On streets where speed limits are low, bicyclists can almost keep up with traffic, so bike lanes aren't so necessary.

    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      Are you going to pay for the carbon that coal plant squirts into the atmosphere to charge your Nissan Leaf?

      Didn't think so.

      • Better a well-maintained coal plant emitting scrubbed gasses than a thousand poorly-maintained gasoline cars belching out exhaust fumes with little more than a catalytic converter to help out.

        • Something like 12% better in the USA, last I read. Perhaps that's outdated now, but cars are cleaner now than they were and coal is still coal. And a modern catalyst system is pretty damned good, because now we have a downstream O2 sensor to monitor each cat, to say nothing of heated O2 sensors that start working right away so that we can enter closed-loop mode before the vehicle even comes up to full operating temperature — something few pre-OBD-II cars did. Couple that with direct injection and a re

  • by Karmashock ( 2415832 ) on Thursday December 11, 2014 @05:25PM (#48576259)

    The idiots enviromental activists don't seem to grasp that caring about the environment is directly proportional to wealth. Look at poor countries and tell me how many of them give a dam about the environment? Exactly.

    So going on a crusade against the evil capitalist corporations that actually keep us from being that dirt poor... accomplishes what? Ironically it makes us all pollute more because we stop caring about the environment as we start having issues feeding ourselves.

    Rule ONE of EFFECTIVE environmental activsism:
    DO NOT make the host society poorer in the process. Violations of this rule will result in instant proportional decreases in everyone caring about the environment. Anyone that doesn't already grasp this clearly doesn't pay any of their own bills. Which makes everything clear since most environmental activists tend to be teenagers or trust fund kids.

    This is not to say that I don't care about the environment or don't think we should do something to protect it. HOWEVER, if you fuck up the economy in the process get ready for everyone to start giving you just as much attention on the issues as the Chinese government. That is, at best you'll be humored/patronized while the people actually making real choices will quietly and systematically ignore everything you've said.

    • They may not be protesting for protecting the environment much but in many poor places, maybe the majority they are getting sick and dying young from exposure to polluted water and/or air. But.. hey.. the environment is a first-world problem. Just shut up and send them some bags of grain right?

      • You completely missed the point. Good work.

        You fuck up the economy = no one gives a shit about the environment.

        Do you logic?

      • by Tailhook ( 98486 )

        Just shut up and send them some bags of grain right?

        We send them our industrial base. We also send them signed trade agreements with MFN status.

        They send us finished goods made safely outside the Environment. And sans any OSHA EPA NLRB costs, tariffs or the slightest customs impediment. Thus, we are free to pad our regulatory nest however much we need to gratify our environmental virtues.

        And this scheme works ok until you create a huge cohort of former-middle-class-now-subsistence-worker voters. Those folks have no patience for hypocrite [usnews.com] climate warriors

        • They send us finished goods made safely outside the Environment.

          wut

          Did you know that there's days when Los Angeles has more pollution which has floated over from China than the home-grown kind? The CARB menace has been so successful at cleaning up air here at home that we can actually be sucking down more pollution produced from the production of the shit that we buy that's made in another country, across the sea.

  • by steveha ( 103154 ) on Thursday December 11, 2014 @05:39PM (#48576371) Homepage

    If you really want cleaner air, the best thing to do would be to get as many old cars off the road as possible, so that people will be driving new cars. The new cars are so much cleaner than the old cars, it's amazing.

    With the above in mind, I don't think the government should tighten up emissions standards even more. All the easy gains are gone, and now it takes engineering and expense to make cars pollute even less, which means that cars will be more expensive. If the government forces all the cars to be cleaner, all the cars get more expensive so it's fair as far as car makers go; but making new cars more expensive means people are more likely to keep driving dirty old cars.

    There is a good discussion here: http://keithhennessey.com/2009/05/19/understanding-the-presidents-cafe-announcement/ [keithhennessey.com]

    Thus, while it may seem counter-intuitive, I believe the best way to get the air cleaner is to leave the standards right where they are and try to get the cost of a new car to drift downward.

    The new cars are much safer than the really old cars also, so getting more people into new cars will also save more lives than making the crash standards tougher.

    I think that within 20 to 30 years, the majority of vehicles will be electric anyway, and emissions will be very much reduced. (The reason I think that: improved solar technology and new storage technologies will bring down the cost of electricity; and battery costs will come down, especially due to the Tesla "giga-factory". I know I'd be happy with an electric vehicle, and rent a gas vehicle for my occasional long road trip.)

    • If you really want clean air the best thing you can do is move to an isolated mountaintop.

      If you meant clean air for the planet, not just yourself then your car is probably not the place to start. Use less electricity. That's where the majority of the air pollution comes from. Cars are a visible source of pollution, you see them everywhere but your daily drive might not take you past the local coal plant. Don't let that bias your thinking. Most of the pollution is from there, not from your car.

      Start tu

      • If you meant clean air for the planet, not just yourself then your car is probably not the place to start. Use less electricity. That's where the majority of the air pollution comes from.

        Not so fast...

        Where I live, in a valley with mountain ranges on two sides, and an inversion in the winter and ozone in the summer, the vast majority of that problem comes from auto exhaust. Sure, there is some pollution from industry, but our coal burning power plants are hundreds of miles away.

        Really the only thing that is going to help in this situation is electric cars, but there you go, being powered by coal.
        Unless we can get solar charging going...

        • by fnj ( 64210 )

          Nobody is going to feel sorry for you because you choose to live in a STUPID location and then complain that the location is excessively prone to trapping/concentrating pollution.

      • I bet you think coal is mined with pick and shovel.
    • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

      ...making new cars more expensive means people are more likely to keep driving dirty old cars.

      It also makes them more likely to ride bicycles, buses and trains, and to walk or telecommute.

    • by fnj ( 64210 )

      Parent's is a very thoughtful post. I'll just add some figures [epa.gov]. The following represents regulations for NOX emissions by new cars in grams per mile.
      1975: 3.1
      1977: 2.0
      1981: 1.0
      1994: 0.6
      1999: 0.3
      2004-2009: 0.07

      What I can't find is, what were typical emissions prior to the EPA - i.e., prior to 1970. Clearly the 1975 figure of 3.1 already represents a reduction; likely a significant one.

      Essentially all of the pickup was in place by 1999. Everything since then has been an exhibition of EPA masturbation. It's be

  • While I agree with the sentiment about newer vehicles, etc, the last thing I need or want is another loan.
    IMHO this is 99% of this discussion...

    For the millions out there who drive vehicles 10+ years old(such as myself), one of the main reason we keep them instead of getting something newer is the obvious fact that THEY ARE PAID OFF.

    Rocket Science, eh?

    Unfortunately for the environment, I will stick with my old truck that gets 10mpg for the aforementioned reason.
    • by fnj ( 64210 )

      My current vehicle is now 15 years old and I have never been happier. Not just for being loan free for 10 years, but because not long after 1999 all cars became shittier in various ways, notably mechanically. Engine design is now so compromised by the ridiculously stringent emissions fetish that all other attributes are down the toilet: notably cost, longevity, and maintenance.

  • by morgauxo ( 974071 ) on Thursday December 11, 2014 @05:54PM (#48576551)

    Sorry but that's just how it is going to be. Buying a newer car doesn't make any sense. They are far too expensive and they lose their value far too quickly. Even with occasional repairs for an older car and gas being expensive a new car is still just a money sucking black hole.

    If you are worried about the price of gas just buy a smaller old car. If you are worried about the environment you probably shouldn't be thinking about a new car anyway.

    The materials and parts are mined and built in separate places all over the planet. Your car probably has probably traveled more miles right off the factory line than it will in the first 10 years it is driven. Pollution was generated all along it's path. So.. if you are worried about the environment keep driving the jalopy and give some of the savings to an environmentally friendly charity.

    Cash for clunkers was nothing but a thinly veiled donation to the auto industry.

  • Probably because washing your car every week is a luxury.
  • So, prosperity is good for the climate.

  • But due to the recession, people drove less and fewer goods were delivered via truck. What was the effect of that?

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