Netflix Algorithm Tells You When Your Best Employee Is About To Leave You 210
An anonymous reader writes "Former Netflix data scientist Mohammad Sabah has used the basis of the video-streaming company's movie-recommendation engine to create a new system to predict when valuable employees are likely to leave your company for pastures new. The new application 'Workday Talent Insights' uses the basis of the engine to correlate diverse factors such as interval between promotions and current length of tenure with equivalent job opportunities at employment websites, in order to gauge 'corporate restlessness', and provide options for employers who identify potential leavers."
Easy (Score:5, Funny)
Has the employee been watching Office Space on repeat? He's about to leave.
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So what other good "Take this job and shove it" movies are there? List begins here:
Re: Easy (Score:2)
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And Fight Club.
And you're right - those parts in Wanted were awesome.
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Falling Down comes to mind.
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True. It's not the first movie to come to mind. But it does express the frustrations faced by aerospace/defense engineers taken way beyond normal. When I was working at a major defense contractor and looking to get the hell out of there, I watched that movie several times.
You Don't Know Jack...on Netflix? (Score:2)
ON Netflix their application (MAX) to help you choose something to watch , has a voice actor and general humor and feel of the old CD game (and later online too I think) "You Don't Know Jack".
Has anyone else noticed this? I wonder if this is by the old YDKJ folks? Those quizzes were funny and fun I always thought. MAX on Netflix sure seems a lot like You Don't Know Jack.
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I loved those games...so funny.
Glad they're still around.
Re: You Don't Know Jack...on Netflix? (Score:3)
Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Insightful)
- Have they turned up in a suit one day when they normally where jeans and t-shirt and disappear off for an extra long lunchbreak?
- Have they started arriving late and leaving early?
- Do they skip meetings more often?
- Have they hinted about a payrise in the last assessment?
- Has their work quality gone off a cliff and they spend most of the day on social media or youtube?
If YES is the answer to 2 or more of those then yes, probably they're looking to leave.
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Interesting)
It's amazing how true this is... as a manager, I can predict when an employee is going to leave 1-2 months before they give notice. It's often subtle changes in their routine that become red flags - so subtle I doubt they even realize they have changed.
Let me help you with adding more time to that. (Score:5, Insightful)
If you give an employee an awesome review, but tell him that due to your budget, you can only give a cost of living increase.
Or here's one the really pissed me off. I was working for a body shop and coming off a contract. The sales/recruiter/commissioned guy asks what kind of rate would I like for the next contract. OK.
So, I go up to computerjobs, type in my skills, experience, area and find that other W-2 contractors/temps were getting at least $5/hr more than I was. So, that's what I told the sales/recruiter/commissioned guy.
"That's a pretty big increase."
Excuse me. THEY are going to bill at market rates so why shouldn't I get market rates? My next contract was with another company that gave me $11/hr more. Yeah, this was in the late nineties - so, keep that in mind.
Here's another one that kills me.
You're working 12 hour days and ask your boss about getting more help - and entry level guy. And you explain that it will also develop more talent for the company.
He says, "No, see we can't get anyone qualified."
Now, I like getting my ego stroked as well the next guy, but frankly what I was doing wasn't rocket science. Then I overheard the stuff about the minimum ROI they have to make on a developer. That's right, they need to make 45% over your total compensation (salary, benefits, SS payments, etc ...). Some companies it's even more. So, they work you to death, tell you your awesome and that everyone else is too stupid to do what you're doing so, keep working hard you genius. Why hire two developers for when you can get one guy to kill himself?
All of us were eventually canned and the work sent overseas.
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If you give an employee an awesome review, but tell him that due to your budget, you can only give a cost of living increase.
One of the reasons I left a small company (and don't work for them anymore either): getting told by the owner himself that they can't afford to give me a raise this year then not even a month later seeing his new sports car and finding out about the mini-mansion that he's building for himself. That business went under not even a year after I jumped ship.
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If not leave, perhaps a job with lower wage or out as a contractor.
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Insightful)
Subtle things like...
- Not being so darn stubborn when a salesperson sells a 12 month project to be delivered in 3 months.
- Taking up leave days, even though running behind on schedule.
- No longer working late or taking work home.
- Generally being cheerful and somehow more "care free".
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Insightful)
This, entirely this. Saved a company over half a million dollars(or more) in lost time once by doing something that wasn't even my job only to be told I was not able to get a raise because my title didn't warrant it, oh and I couldn't get a new title. Within 2 years of leaving I'm on the verge of being triple my salary there. If you're not willing to pay someone what they are worth once they've proved their worth, you can bet someone else is.
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:4, Interesting)
The same thing happened to me. I saved a company a million dollars a year. Then I got a bad review because I missed a meeting (I proved that I wouldn't get e-mail notifications if I was the last person invited because of some weird Outlook bug) and I quoted the customer saying they were "pissed" (direct quote) while everyone else especially the CxOs went around dropping f-bombs like they were using them up before they spoiled.
Yeah, I wasn't there much longer.
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- Have they turned up in a suit one day when they normally where jeans and t-shirt and disappear off for an extra long lunchbreak?
- Have they started arriving late and leaving early?
- Do they skip meetings more often?
- Have they hinted about a payrise in the last assessment?
- Has their work quality gone off a cliff and they spend most of the day on social media or youtube?
If YES is the answer to 2 or more of those then yes, probably they're looking to leave.
Yeah, that's pretty much how it goes. I don't normally wear jeans to work though.
Re: Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Funny)
In some workplaces that could be considered inappropriate, in others it may depend on your style of underwear.
Re: Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Informative)
underwear is for suckers
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I'd prefer the suckers took off my underwear first.
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Informative)
That works for European employers, it's much harder to fire someone in general than it is in the USA.
When a manager finds out someone is leaving, one of the following happens:
1) They're fired on the spot and escorted from the building;
2) The manager tries to guilt them into staying;
3) A pathetic counter-offer is made (nevermind that the reasons for leaving may not have anything to do with compensation);
4) A significant counter-offer is made (usually intended to keep the worker there just long enough to hire a replacement).
Occasionally what you describe happens. It's rare in my experience. Look at it from the employer's point of view; to this point in the employee's time there, they have been able to do pretty much whatever they want w/r/t the worker. No binding job descriptions, arbitrary re-assignment, (for exempt employees) forcing them to work 60, 70, 80 hour weeks with no extra pay, making them do the work of three people for a single salary, etc etc etc. The playing field is heavily tilted in their favor. So, it comes as a shock and an insult when the employee exercises the one right that US workers really have: They can quit. How DARE they! Don't they know that the company will only make 6 bazillion dollars instead of 6.5 if they leave? WON'T SOMEONE THINK OF THE SHAREHOLDERS!
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Can someone explain how employers in "at will" states deal with employees leaving? It seems like they could just announce one Tuesday at 5 PM that they found a new job and won't be in tomorrow, leaving the employer completely screwed. No hand-over period, just suddenly they need to find someone and hope they can take over what that person was doing.
I'd have thought that employers would having well defined notice periods.
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However, HR will inform you that leaving before the normally accepted two weeks notice means you won't be considered for employment there again.
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:4, Insightful)
Yes, this. And that's worse than it sounds because when potential employers call to confirm your work history there, the key question they will ask is "are they eligible for rehire?" "Yes" is taken as "they were a decent employee", and "No" is taken as "stay far away from them."
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Informative)
At-will means two things:
1) They can fire you with no notice and no reason at any time.
2) You can quit and walk out with no notice and no stated reason at any time.
On paper, that seems fair. However, it's tilted in the employer's favor because most of the time losing a job is much worse for the employee than it is for the employer.
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Thanks. I suppose it depends on the company. Those that need highly skilled staff where leaving one day can screw them badly might not like it, but those where workers are basically disposable will love it.
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If the loss of any one employee can cost the business millions then it is in their interest to make sure that there is another person who can perform that job. In IT disaster preparedness planning we often refer to this as the hit by the bus disaster where a key individual is taken out of action without warning. Any well run company will have identified these key people and will have planned to cross train others in their department to at least pick up the daily tasks they perform until a replacement can be
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Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Informative)
Employee finds a new job. Employee gives two weeks notice (or more, sometimes). Employer escorts employee off the premises immediately and pays them for two weeks of "vacation".
or...
Employee gets called to a random meeting. On entering, employee sees his manager, one HR person, and possibly one random middle-management "witness" (point #1 - If you ever encounter this situation, immediately demand to have your own witness present, because they legally can and will lie to you about every materially relevant aspect of the ensuing discussion). They hand employee a pile of papers, ask for a bunch of signatures (point #2 - You have no obligation to sign a damned thing, this counts as your last bit of leverage to negotiate for things like prolonged severance, and some of it, such as anticompetes, you do not ever want to sign at an exit interview no matter what they offer you). Employer escorts employee off the premises immediately and pays them for two weeks (or as negotiated) of severance pay.
And yes, for any European friends reading this, that counts as the norm in most of the US. Companies really only deviate from that script in one situation - They so desperately need the employee that the employee actually leaving would temporarily cripple a significant portion of the company. In that case, they play nice and pretend to let you stick around for an extra two weeks - Meanwhile, your computer access drops to the point that you can't do anything but play solitaire (if even that), and you suddenly have a shadow ostensibly there to "facilitate" your knowledge dump (because rookies from security make excellent facilitators, of course).
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I don't know about you, but I couldn't make ends meet for long on unemployment payments. They can also make your life difficult by fighting the claim and making shit up out of whole cloth at the hearing.
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If 70% of your salary is not enough to make ends meet, you are living well beyond your means.
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If 70% of your salary is not enough to make ends meet, you are living well beyond your means.
Welcome to America!
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A. It tops out at $450/week in California
B. It took me 10 months of appeals to see $0.01
If I had structured debt or other liabilities I would have been homeless.
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Well, then that would alter one's *choice* to use unemployment as a *vacation*, which was what started this silly thread.
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:4, Informative)
Most states cap that - Mine caps it at just about $350/week. That doesn't even cover my mortgage.
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I stand corrected about the 70%, I didn't realize there were caps. I'll revise my statement then.
If one has a mortgage without enough of an emergency fund to pay that mortgage in the event of a job loss for enough time to downsize to a smaller home, then one is living beyond their means.
In other words, if something like the loss of one job will cause a financial crisis, one is doing it wrong.
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Good thing it's never possible to lose ones job during a soft real estate market. Or be new to the job market and start with a company that soon fails. Or have unexpected health related costs. Or you know, anything else that even a smug bastard might find financially difficult to deal with. I'm amazed how anit-people you folks are over there.
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If 70% of your salary is not enough to make ends meet, you are living well beyond your means.
Or a home owner.
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Clearly this is the algorithm managers need even if it isn't the algorithm managers want. I can see it already:
"how can this be right???! All of the inputs are the things I do! Something isnt right here!"
Re:Managers need an algorithm for that? (Score:5, Funny)
Knowing my past bosses, they need less succinct clues:
- Did they set up the job search page as browser's default?
- Did they ask you to check their CV?
- Did they tell you "That's it! I'm leaving this fucking hell hole!"
- Did they stop coming every morning?
And, the one good clue:
- When you called them on their personal phone to ask if they were "ill, or something", Did they answer "I LEFT THE COMPANY TWO WEEKS AGO, YOU FUCKING RETARD!"?
If the answer to all of the above is yes. Please, for the love of God, stop sending SMSs to their personal phone. They will never come back and they don't care you get fired if you don't make it to the shipping date.
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Have they been an employee for more than one day? If so they may already be considering other employment opportunities.
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I'm the Ron White of employees.
Were I am employer, I would never hire Ron White. Unless I ran a comedy club. And then only if he promises to bring his blue collar friends around every so often to do shows. But they can't use the bathrooms, they'll have to go next door to the Chinese restaurant.
Hits Home (Score:5, Interesting)
This type of monitoring makes me nervous.
I have a job where a few years ago I looked at some job opportunities on a Job Site. The very next day my manager came to me asking if I was happy with my job, which in general I was, but I was unnerved that they knew I was looking at the other options. I suspect they used a honey pot job listing. I decided my job security at that time was more important than looking for other opportunities so I stopped looking altogether. If I was to job hunt to today I would do so much more surreptitiously and under a pseudonym, at least initially.
I am well compensated at my job, but dislike the idea that they are aware of my activities outside of work.
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Were you looking at the job site on a personal or work computer?
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From home. The main reason I think they have a honeypot listing.
Clarification (Score:2)
My home computer.
To clarify. It was HR that alerted my Manager. I said the next day, but I may have been looking a few days, a week at the most, though I had probably posted inquiries the night before. It was quite sudden, unexpected, and intimidating. This was probably 5-6 years ago. As stated I am with the same company, outside this incident they have treated me well. I don't consider myself a star employee, their concern seemed more of the "Oh my gosh, we really hope you are happy here" kind. Still
Re:Hits Home (Score:5, Interesting)
You dislike it and the employer likes it for the same reason: it makes you position on the job market worse. And since they already have a stronger position, there's little you can do about it short of unionizing. But unionizing makes above average talent relatively - though not necessarily absolutely - worse off, and everyone likes thinking they're better than average. That combination of ego and selfishness is easy to turn into a weapon to make people act against their own best interests: all you have to do is tell them they deserve it better than someone else, and will get their due if they only forget solidarity with them. And when it's their turn to be eaten, there's none left to stand with them, so they fall.
Not that it really matters. The revolution of the proletariat failed, but it seems the bourgeoisie is perfectly capable of destroying the entire superstructure their might depends on without anyone's assistance. You can't have a business without customers, you can't have customers if people don't have money, and they can't get money without wages or social security. The only real question is: with communism discredited, what happens when the downward spiral reaches the point of no return? You can't maintain social cohesion without any kind of ideology when bread and circuses stop coming. Will we see the return of fascism, will someone come up with something entirely new, or will civilization simply collapse?
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It's a damned shame communism has been so thoroughly discredited, considering that it's never actually been tried on a large scale:
Communism has the workers owning the means of production, while the only "attempts" have involved the government owning the means of production. Those are only compatible if the workers own the government, and I don't think that's ever been the case of any government in the history of human civilization. *Certainly* it wasn't the case in any of the so-called "communist" countr
Re:Hits Home (Score:4, Insightful)
Communism has the workers owning the means of production, while the only "attempts" have involved the government owning the means of production. Those are only compatible if the workers own the government, and I don't think that's ever been the case of any government in the history of human civilization. *Certainly* it wasn't the case in any of the so-called "communist" countries.
The irony here is that capitalism actually provides the most direct way for workers to own the means of production - through holding equity in the company. The ownership of any individual is miniscule (other than founders, executives, etc.) but there are numerous examples of "employee-owned" companies in which the Marxist ideal has been more fully realized than in any Communist nation to date.
There is also an inherent contradiction in every attempt to date to implement a Communist government. As you point out, if the government owns the means of production, the workers don't own it in turn unless they have control of the government, which can only be accomplished through Democracy. Every Communist government established during the 20th century was a single-party or totalitarian state, but arguably that's unavoidable because you will never find a Communist government (not talking about Socialist, but Communist) that is freely elected by a majority of its citizens because many aspects of Communism involve taking away property, land, etc. from the people who currently own it in order to "share" it among the population. Communism has historically always come to power through revolution or outside imposition, and human nature makes it highly unlikely for those who have won power in that way to ever risk losing it through enabling Democracy.
So I think history tends to prove for us that the ideal of a Communist state on a large scale achieving its original goal of worker ownership of the means of production to be inherently flawed. Then again, it can also be argued that the Marxist idea of Communism was a response to an Industrial Revolution status quo which has changed dramatically in the past 150 years and needs to be largely rethought to have modern relevance anyway...
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Yes, capitalism allows, in theory, for workers to own the means of production. In practice it doesn't work out that way. In the US "the 99%" owns, collectively, only about 1% of stock - not enough to make the slightest difference when deciding the course of business decisions, which is what's actually important. Otherwise it's just profit-sharing, not actual ownership. Ownership requires a degree of control.
As for your statements about Democracy - I agree, except that, so far as I know, we've never had a
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Hell, democratic *anything* hasn't really been tried. Get it going and I have a feeling that alone would solve a lot of the ills of our world.
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If they want more then they can produce more. If they don't care then let them produce less. All it requires is that we stand by the principle that "if you don't work then you don't eat".
Wait... isn't there a name for this already?
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Both communism and a free market have been tried just enough for us to decide that we don't want any of that, thank you.
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I used to be really concerned about it. Heck, I still am. ...
What do we do when computing and automation reduces mass jobs?
What happens when population growth stops?
What happens when the West stops getting the best people from developing countries?
I really have no idea of the answer to any of these questions. Yet, what I do know is the powers that be will do everything to keep it going.
Communism is discredited, but I wouldn't count it out (i'm being genuinely neutral here). I've been hearing for years that
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Yes (unrestricted corporatism). Yes (Snowden). Yes (Peak oil).
Tragedy of the Commons Writ Large (Score:3)
What we have here is the situation when corporate power, and the power of the financial elite, takes over all aspects of government policy [princeton.edu]. It transforms the entire consumer market based economy into the Tragedy of the Commons [wikipedia.org].
Every corporation aims to to fatten its bottom line, stock price, and C-Suite compensation package by reducing the wages of its labor force. It is a rational micro-decision, just as grazing as many sheep as possible on the commons is rational for the individual farmer, but it destroys
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This type of monitoring makes me nervous.
Those who are not guilty of something have nothing to fear. Right? The rest of us can sleep easier knowing that someone is watching.
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Are you sure they just didn't have some kind of resume harvesting service?
Specifically, are you sure they didn't have a resume harvesting service that pings them whenever someone with desirable skills floats through?
Most likely, you have the skills that your employer is looking for.
Re:Hits Home (Score:4, Insightful)
Yes indeed. That's what happened to me. A "safety violation" when you get back from a work trip leaves you jobless and without benefits... Don't spend a lot of time thinking about getting a new job. When you decide it isn't working out, find something else, don't do what I did and make an elaborate plan to quit on a certain day next year and then take a nice vacation.
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Also, don't expect HR to follow their own company policies or the integrity department to review the circumstances of your BS firings. They won't... They also won't tell your former co-workers why you aren't there. Lack of information is their friend.
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Netflix recommendations (Score:4)
.
The Netflix recommendations I'm watched were out of my range of likes and/or taste.
So, based upon my experience with the Netflix recommendation algorithm, I'd be wary of this new application.
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That's because you shared your password
Password is shared with no one. It is just me watching.
Bah, cue the evil ... (Score:5, Insightful)
Of course what will happen in reality is companies will use this to maximize the amount of shit and abuse they can heap on employees before they actually leave, and ensure that by the time they do you no longer need to care.
The sociopaths who run corporations don't give a crap about employee retention or loyalty, just grinding them down into compliance.
There's no fucking way corporations will use this in some enlightened, self-aware attempt to keep employees happy.
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Of course they won't. Caring about the peons doesn't maximize shareholder value.
Opportunity plus (Score:5, Interesting)
Combine this with Googles new automated interview techniques and you can have people being moved automatically from company to company!
Imagine waking up and getting a message saying
Dear OzPeter,
We are sorry to hear that ABC Widget company has let you go. But don't worry, overnight you details were submitted to 14 different companies in your area who subscribe to Googles "Match Me" recruiting service. Based on information automatically provided by ABC Widget co through their Netflix firing algorithm, 9 of those companies bid on you, and we are happy to announce that you are now employed by XYZ Financial services.
Congratulations on your new position!
Please see the attached map to find your way to your new place of work.
Would you like us to update your:
Facebook status y/n?
Linked In profile: y/n?
Twitter account: y/n?
MySpace page: y/n?
Re:Opportunity plus (Score:5, Interesting)
Hmmm, well as long as Match Me is smart enough to get a minimum % pay bump with each move, doesn't hire me off to a place too far away, and the work at ABC Widget is interesting....I hate job hunting/interviewing.
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Yeah; as long as it did a good job and knew that I value work/life balance more than pay, I'd be pretty happy with such a system.
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Like most of the world, Google's Match Me service doesn't even use Google+.
the algorithm (Score:2)
Question 1) are you taking them for granted? --> Yes - oh no, they are leaving soon!
|
No - goto Question 1
Silly valley Talent war? (Score:3)
Really? When they throw away people over 40 and over 50% of the population is considered unqualified due to being the wrong gender there is no talent shortage, but management myopia. You have to wonder how many 'restless employees' are looking because they know they will soon be thrown away.
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"About "wrong gender" - it is again accountants - if one gender may cause higher risk of litigation - company has to minimalize that risk, right?"
But women work for lower salaries than men. That does not make sense.
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
We already have this for employees (Score:2)
Am I in any G8 country other than USA, your country protects its citizens, and the corporation is required to notify you, and provide a reason if you will be let go.
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That's a little different. In that case your commission would be unpaid wages, and the DOL would be able to get involved.
Most of the time, though, their lawyers can beat up your lawyers.
I have one too (Score:2)
Just connect on linkedin (Score:5, Insightful)
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I thought everyone deleted their LinkedIn profiles when their user database leaked out. Well, I did.
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Make this work for you. (Score:4, Insightful)
Make this work for you.
1. Once in a while, casually mention to your boss how tired you are of recruiters emailing/calling/texting you all the time.
2. Tell a coworker your going to be a little late coming back from lunch with your buddy from $Your_biggest_competitor.
3. Tell your boss you have an "appointment" tomorrow, and you need to take an hour off. Show up the next day wearing your best suit and tie.
It predicts when valuable employees are (Score:2)
about to leave. What about the valueless employees? You know, the ones who actually do the work and can be replaced with a phone call...
How to tell if your top Developers are leaving: (Score:2)
Re:How to tell if your top Developers are leaving: (Score:5, Insightful)
Haircut, beard trim
... not replenishing their Hot Pockets supply in the break-room freezer.
Bad Management (Score:2)
This is something that every manager should be aware of: subordinates promotions, salary increases, job functions, etc. So now an important function of management is being replaced by a small shell script [urbandictionary.com].
This will be the basis of my algorithm for timing a divestiture from a corportion. When the boss' function can be replaced by a laptop.
Not a Netflix Algorithm (Score:3)
The article summary is, if not inaccurate, misleading. Sabah left Netflix almost three years ago, and now works for Workday.
This is an important distinction because A) Workday can make a reasonable case for this being a valuable product to offer their customers; and B) Netflix cannot (and, speaking as a hiring manager at Netflix, we get a little antsy when it comes to monitoring employees -- it's a pretty laissez faire environment here).
Easy algorithm (Score:2)
Firewall log shows employee spends all day on dice, Monster, and the like? HAs there been recent browsing of suits and professional dress?
Employee is about to leave.
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Sure, they write the checks. But it's the lower classes that do the actual work. Which would be fine, if the lower classes shared in any success the company had.
"Hey, I just created $x that's going to make us a billion dollars!"
"Attaboy!"
That's it. The rich get richer off the hard work of other people.