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The Military Japan

After Two Months of Quiet, North Korea Launches Another Ballistic Missile (arstechnica.com) 245

South Korean and U.S. officials have confirmed that North Korea has launched another ballistic missile into the sea of Japan. The ballistic missile test -- launched just after 3am Wednesday local time from Sin-ni in South Pyongyang -- is the first since an intermediate-range missile test in September. Ars Technica reports: In a statement to the press, a spokesperson for South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said, "North Korea fired an unidentified ballistic missile early this morning from Pyongsong, South Pyongan [Province], to the east direction. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff is analyzing more details of the missile with the U.S. side." The U.S. Department of Defense and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) have made an initial assessment that the missile was an ICBM, according to Office of the Secretary of Defense spokesperson Col. Robert Manning. The missile traveled 1,000 kilometers, flew over Japan, and landed in the sea east of Japan within its exclusive economic zone.
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After Two Months of Quiet, North Korea Launches Another Ballistic Missile

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  • ... about sovereign airspace violation?

    • by wjcofkc ( 964165 )
      After WW2 they adopted a doctrine of passivity. They don't even have their own nukes. The deal is the US defends them. We are their primary military defense.

      So the pundits are already saying we need to just back off and use diplomacy. Now, if NK landed an ICBM off the coast of California, would they suddenly sing a different tune?

      Roughly, this is the time line I have watched unfold over my lifetime:
      1. Don't worry, NK is a joke. Maintain the DMZ and they will eventually warm up to the international communi
      • by Ritz_Just_Ritz ( 883997 ) on Tuesday November 28, 2017 @07:17PM (#55640147)

        I've seen various estimates showing that Japan could have nukes in short order if they desired. They have all of the relevant tech, the expertise, the money, and the raw materials. Certainly not advocated for them to build them, but it would likely be a relatively trivial exercise for them to develop nuclear arms.

        • Somewhere between an all-nighter and a long weekend.

        • I've seen various estimates showing that Japan could have nukes in short order if they desired. They have all of the relevant tech, the expertise, the money, and the raw materials. Certainly not advocated for them to build them, but it would likely be a relatively trivial exercise for them to develop nuclear arms.

          I just came back from Asia and, according to Singapore TV news, Japan indicated last week that they can build over a thousand nuclear weapons in less than 3 months. They have everything ready to go, they have just not chosen to do so due to the fact that many of the citizens of Japan are strongly against nuclear weapons.

          • by Bongo ( 13261 )

            I've seen various estimates showing that Japan could have nukes in short order if they desired. They have all of the relevant tech, the expertise, the money, and the raw materials. Certainly not advocated for them to build them, but it would likely be a relatively trivial exercise for them to develop nuclear arms.

            I just came back from Asia and, according to Singapore TV news, Japan indicated last week that they can build over a thousand nuclear weapons in less than 3 months. They have everything ready to go, they have just not chosen to do so due to the fact that many of the citizens of Japan are strongly against nuclear weapons.

            Presumably, all of them with 3D face scanner targeting, set for NK's Dictator.

            And after they blow up Humpty Humpty, the Japanese will go over and carefully piece Humpty Dumpty back together again with very fine craftsmanship and glue.

            And then we will all acknowledge it to be a very great work of Wabi.

          • I don't know about 1000, that would require a lot of material, and mass production capability, which I'm not sure they have setup. Though given the current climate that might prompt them to change that.

            However I have heard the 3 month timeline and I believe it. They could most certainly have a bunch in short order if they really wanted to. Also they already have an advanced space program, so likely the jump from that to a delivery system is pretty minor also.

      • TL;DR

        NK violated Japan airspace.

        Notice the limited scope of "NK and Japan."

        • Notice the limited scope of "NK and Japan."

          The scope is not limited to NK and Japan thanks to a treaty forced on Japan by the USA after the war.

          If any scope regarding international conflict ever includes Japan, it by default now includes the USA.

          Learn some history.

    • ... about sovereign airspace violation?

      Everything they are allowed to based on their agreements with the USA after the war: "Asking the USA to intervene"

  • So in other words are we going to wait until it flies INTO Japan to do anything or is this all just for show and anyone that matters is in on it?
    I know this is a complicated political mess but does Japan really need to put up with these Twitter flame wars when they're literally having hostile ICBMs flying over them?

    I'm not calling for military action, this just seems overly strange/irresponsible from both sides.

    Surely there's something I'm missing out of all this? Surely?!

    • by Tesen ( 858022 )

      I'm not calling for military action, this just seems overly strange/irresponsible from both sides.

      Surely there's something I'm missing out of all this? Surely?!

      So continue with the sanctions then?

    • by Ritz_Just_Ritz ( 883997 ) on Tuesday November 28, 2017 @07:07PM (#55640061)

      So are you advocating a "wait and see" attitude? Maybe we should continue to hope China can be a "positive influence" on them? That didn't work out so well for Neville Chamberlain who hoped to use the Italians and the French to temper Hitler's ambitions.

      It's only a matter of time before this blows up in the faces of the civilized world. Better to deal with it sooner than wait until NK is bristling with nuclear armed ballistic missiles. They have proven time and again to be untrustworthy.

    • South Korea won't allow military action, as they shouldn't. My speculation is that Trump is trying to provoke Kim Jong "Rocket Man" Un to do something rash -- like fire a not-so-test missile prematurely so it malfunctions -- so that the US has more options. Potentially though if provoked enough Kim may be so crazy to give an order his generals won't stomach so if they are all in agreement he'll disappear in a coup. One clue about the latter is Trump in his insults makes a clear distinction between Kim and N

      • by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:55PM (#55644103)

        > My speculation is that Trump is trying to provoke Kim Jong "Rocket Man" Un to do something rash

        My speculation is that Trump has an ego only outsized by his mouth, and he has no plan at all beyond trying to out-insult NK. He's a stupid egotistical hypersensitive bully, and simply doesn't have a complicated playbook to draw on.

        The difference between my speculation and yours is that mine explains everything he's said and done and yours... well, yours doesn't.

    • "So in other words are we going to wait until it flies INTO Japan to do anything "

      You are pretty much playing into kims hand with that attitude.

      When a toddler throws a tantrum, or a troll starts a harassment campaign, what is the best response?

      Ignore them. They are looking for attention, so any attention, bad attention, good attention, war attention; that is what they are seeking. So to deny them that is the ultimate defeat of this strategy. They haven't actually hurt anyone, except their own people, so let

      • You're missing the point. And your analogy is terrible.

        You don't ignore toddlers throwing tantrums, you give them love. Leaving kids alone is bad, look it up.
        I'm fine with comparing Kim to a toddler, but you need to understand millions of lives are in the balance. That's usually not the case when kids go ape shit.

  • Up up and away.... in my beautiful, my beautiful ka-boom!
  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Tuesday November 28, 2017 @08:47PM (#55640791)
    Lots of folks like it. Especially The dropping bombs part. After Saddam and Gaddafi disarmed we invaded and bombed. You think North Korea learned nothing from that? We as a nation are not to be trusted.
  • would just shit themselves if Japan finally said " Fuck this " and started testing their own ballistic missiles by launching them over the North Korean peninsula and landing them in the South China Sea.

    Hell, just to watch the drama unfold, I would even give them a dozen ICBM's to play with were I sitting on a stockpile.

    • haha correction, Yellow Sea :|

      That would be one hell of a trajectory if they shot it over NK and back down to the SCS. Though I suppose a cruise missile would do the trick.

  • by schwit1 ( 797399 ) on Tuesday November 28, 2017 @09:45PM (#55641063)
    With that the NORKS don't need to miniaturize the warhead. The SS18 is a massive missile.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/0... [nytimes.com]

  • ...that Japan isn't retaliating after repeated WMD incursions of its sovereign airspace.

    Can the Japanese even be sure just from the missile's trajectory that it isn't actually aimed at Japan? I mean the most effective way of using a nuke is actually not to hit the target but to detonate it in the atmosphere above the target.

    It really makes me concerned about what would actually happen if the missile failed in flight and inadvertently landed on Japanese soil.

    • in the atmosphere relatively close to the ground...even for a 1 megaton bomb the optimal altitude is about 2 miles up, and north korea's largest weapon was but a fraction of that

  • Another big win for Trump's "We're tougher than you" diplomatic strategy.

  • Of all the doomsday scenarios you can project this into, here's the darkest one I see as having merit.

    The world(China) is likely to continue to do nothing to stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles short of strong language. So, the North WILL develop a nuclear arsenal capable of hitting the continental USA. Of course, the North has no reason to start a war with the USA so why bother? The hopeful argument is that it's defensive. That of course flies directly in the face of ever

    • It seems likely that an invasion of South Korea by the North would face a fate similar to that of so many invasions of China: with the invaders being absorbed into the culture they sought to conquer.

      After having been told so many lies about the South for so many years, how would a peasant-soldier from the North react to the astonishing, almost magical technological wonderland he would find himself trying to comprehend? How long would such a soldier remain loyal to the tyrants in command when so many optio

    • I don't see NK throwing nukes around willy nilly. They will use them the same way that other nations that have them use them, which is as a deterrent.

      NK has one of the largest land based armies in the world. They have also been digging into fortifications since likely the 50's.

      The US presence in SK is what keeps NK at bay. NK knows that the US could/would never (politically) invade NK using conventional means. That only leaves unconventional means. Remember, the only reason the US used them against Japan wa

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