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American Tech Giants Are Making Life Tough For Startups (economist.com) 142

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Economist: Venture capitalists, such as Albert Wenger of Union Square Ventures, who was an early investor in Twitter, now talk of a "kill-zone" around the giants. Once a young firm enters, it can be extremely difficult to survive. Tech giants try to squash startups by copying them, or they pay to scoop them up early to eliminate a threat. The idea of a kill-zone may bring to mind Microsoft's long reign in the 1990s, as it embraced a strategy of "embrace, extend and extinguish" and tried to intimidate startups from entering its domain. But entrepreneurs' and venture capitalists' concerns are striking because for a long while afterwards, startups had free rein. [...] Venture capitalists are wary of backing startups in online search, social media, mobile and e-commerce. It has become harder for startups to secure a first financing round. According to Pitchbook, a research company, in 2017 the number of these rounds were down by around 22% from 2012 (see chart).

The wariness comes from seeing what happens to startups when they enter the kill-zone, either deliberately or accidentally. Snap is the most prominent example; after Snap rebuffed Facebook's attempts to buy the firm in 2013, for $3 billion, Facebook cloned many of its successful features and has put a damper on its growth. A less known example is Life on Air, which launched Meerkat, a live video-streaming app, in 2015. It was obliterated when Twitter acquired and promoted a competing app, Periscope. Life on Air shut Meerkat down and launched a different app, called Houseparty, which offered group video chats. This briefly gained prominence, but was then copied by Facebook, seizing users and attention away from the startup.
The Economist goes on to state three reasons why the kill-zone is likely to stay: "First, the giants have tons of data to identify emerging rivals faster than ever before. Recruiting is a second tool the giants will use to enforce their kill zones. A third reason that startups may struggle to break through is that there is no sign of a new platform emerging which could disrupt the incumbents, even more than a decade after the rise of mobile."
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American Tech Giants Are Making Life Tough For Startups

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  • by Qbertino ( 265505 ) <moiraNO@SPAMmodparlor.com> on Monday June 04, 2018 @06:22AM (#56723830)

    That's why the next disruptors will be entirely distributed. Google, FB, Amazon and Co. are todays AOL and CompuServe, plain and simple. They bascially own the web. Cracking that stronghold will likely only happen with fully distributed services. I expect something like this to show up with the next 5 years or so.

    In a way I'm looking forward to that.

    • That's why the next disruptors will be entirely distributed. Google, FB, Amazon and Co. are todays AOL and CompuServe, plain and simple. They bascially own the web. Cracking that stronghold will likely only happen with fully distributed services. I expect something like this to show up with the next 5 years or so.

      In a way I'm looking forward to that.

      You... are not the only person who is thinking like this.

      • by Anonymous Coward

        Of course not, cut and paste from twitter most likely.

    • So what you're saying is that the next disruptor will be based on both torrent and blockchain.

    • by 605dave ( 722736 )

      I've been working on just that since 2013. Open sourcing the solution this fall.

      • Can I get a heads up!
        (Looking for the low UID:)

        • by 605dave ( 722736 )

          I don't want to give anything away, but if you message me I will send you to where you get on a notification email list (not a mailing list)

    • by Wycliffe ( 116160 ) on Monday June 04, 2018 @06:58AM (#56723944) Homepage

      That's why the next disruptors will be entirely distributed. Google, FB, Amazon and Co. are todays AOL and CompuServe, plain and simple. They bascially own the web. Cracking that stronghold will likely only happen with fully distributed services. I expect something like this to show up with the next 5 years or so.

      In a way I'm looking forward to that.

      Although a fully distributed facebook would be better for the internet, it would have a hard time competing with facebook. The reason facebook is so successful is because it has all the people and all the advertisers. Ideally, a distributed facebook would allow third party clients to connect to the distributed backend. This would be hard to monetize so the distributed system would always be at a huge disadvantage to the highly profitable walled garden.

      • by rhsanborn ( 773855 ) on Monday June 04, 2018 @07:32AM (#56724058)
        Additionally, people don't really care. Geek care, that's mostly it. Most everyone else doesn't care, and that matters, because if they don't come to this utopia of distributed privacy, then no one else will either.
        • by Wycliffe ( 116160 ) on Monday June 04, 2018 @07:58AM (#56724200) Homepage

          Additionally, people don't really care. Geek care, that's mostly it. Most everyone else doesn't care, and that matters, because if they don't come to this utopia of distributed privacy, then no one else will either.

          People don't care about privacy but they are willing to switch for features. A distributed system like email or even android allows multiple products to exist in the same domain. That will be the only way to defeat the walled garden. Have a system of loosely connected platforms where one person can choose platform A and another person can choose platform B and they can still talk to each other.

          Facebook is unlikely to do this voluntarily and it would be unlikely for a startup to be able to manage this either. The most likely scenerio at this point would be if google opened google+ to third party developers as a way to try to one up facebook.

          • Have a system of loosely connected platforms where one person can choose platform A and another person can choose platform B and they can still talk to each other.

            Yes, this is why Linux totally destroyed Windows and OSX on the desktop. People don't want to choose between A and B. Sure IT pros liked being able to choose (and car guys like swapping out things under their hoods), but most people want to pick up something and have it just work.

            • Have a system of loosely connected platforms where one person can choose platform A and another person can choose platform B and they can still talk to each other.

              Yes, this is why Linux totally destroyed Windows and OSX on the desktop. People don't want to choose between A and B. Sure IT pros liked being able to choose (and car guys like swapping out things under their hoods), but most people want to pick up something and have it just work.

              Android has 85% market share. For any single phone iphone wins hands down but the shear number of choices of android allows it to dominate the total market. People want things to just work but they also want the choice. Android offers a range of sizes, prices, and features. Likewise with email, there isn't one client that dominates the market. People find the email client that they like. Go look at the toothpaste or shampoo aisle. Sure people might be overwhelmed with choices some time but it's simpl

              • Android offers a range of sizes, prices, and features.

                Android does well because it's cheaper than and one alternative to iOS, and people are locked in via past app purchases. It's not because there are a lot of software options. Sure, there are a ton of options for camera, and size, and whatnot. But no one uses Android OS features as a deciding point.

                Also, I specified desktops to highlight that point. But yeah, how many people installed any alternative distro on Android?

                Likewise with email, there isn't

        • by jythie ( 914043 )
          Geeks tend to forget this part. When you strip away ideology and niftiness, a lot of these distributed solutions just don't offer anything substantially better (or even significantly worse) to justify mass switching... esp solutions that require things like 'everyone runs their own server', which tends to be the type of thing that only works for small communities.
          • And isn't "run your own server" basically just regular forums anyway?

            • I think Diaspora is closer to the mark. It's more like running your own private Facebook node.

              • It's a kludge. Until it's an "app" that you can install, it as easy and brainless to install in Windows like an instant messenger (click, next next finish), these platform aren't going anywhere to the mass market

                • Things like Diaspora can in theory be made as easy as (legit) BitTorrent. The tricky parts of any distributed communication app are
                  1. Integration with domain registrars to give your home computer a globally unique name.
                  2. Integration with UPnP or other home gateway configuration protocols to make your home computer reachable from the Internet.
                  3. Convincing ISPs to turn on IPv6 so that your home computer isn't stuck behind carrier-grade network address translation (CGNAT) with dozens of subscribers on one IP

                  • The problem is that, except for geeks, the home PC is more or less dead. Laptops have replaced desktops for many people who need a computer. But the fact is that most people who use Facebook don't need a computer, they just need a way to connect to the internet, and if they have a smart phone they have that. Distributed systems will never replace Facebook or Google or Amazon, not because the technology will never be there to support it, but because most people won't even have a computer or need one.
                • Unfortunately, that will likely never happen. Centralized services are fundamentally more user friendly than distributed ones.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        The backend could be run not-for-profit, funded by charging for API access. Client sites/apps would use advertising or subscriptions to pay for the API access.

        Facebook could be broken up into these two parts.

    • Too obvious (Score:5, Interesting)

      by sjbe ( 173966 ) on Monday June 04, 2018 @07:36AM (#56724094)

      That's why the next disruptors will be entirely distributed.

      You're going to have something more distributed than the internet? Good luck with that. I understand your argument and it's not a foolish idea but "more distributed" runs into some real world limits and it has little effect on certain companies including I think some of the ones being discussed here.

      Cracking that stronghold will likely only happen with fully distributed services.

      Conceivable but unlikely. The risk to each company is different. It's not likely to be something so obvious as a more distributed version of the internet or their particular services. It will have to be something quite different that they don't really perceive as a threat - at first.

      I expect something like this to show up with the next 5 years or so.

      I'll take that bet. You might be right but I seriously doubt we'll see anything that displaces the bit tech companies in this generation.

      • Yeah, unfortunately distributed computing has proven to be too difficult for most developers. We have been making tools for distributed computing since the 60s, but developers still end up writing essentially procedural code because it's easier to explain and understand step-by-step instructions than it is to explain and understand formalizations.

      • You're both right. Entrenched powers have no interest in creating or even enabling a truly distributed internet, which sadly is what is actually needed to have a free internet. If we want one, we will have to build it ourselves, and that is hard. Still, it is one of the most worthwhile goals on the table right now, perhaps we should give it a go.

      • My points exactly and well made. . .

        http://luiscabral.net/economic... [luiscabral.net]
    • by jythie ( 914043 )
      Unfortunately we have already been through 'distributed', it was disrupted by 'centralized'. Distributed struggles to compete when scaled, and has mostly become a buzzword for hopeful people who have forgotten the past already.
    • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Monday June 04, 2018 @09:23AM (#56724758)

      Before AOL and CompuServe with had a distributed network of BBS's But this created some chaos with each BBS SysOp being their own little king, Some being too strict, others being too lax, some finding a good middle ground. Paid Services such as AOL, Prodigy and CompuServe. Combined the features of hundreds of BBS's to one site, and offered a consistent set of rules and liberties. Then the Web Came out, giving people access to information that these commercial sites deemed inappropriate, or just not interesting enough. So people went back on the distributed method again... However the Web is a dangerous place, to validation of information, that plugin needed to be installed will either be spyware, or just handle some vector graphics so you can play an online game. Altavista, Yahoo, AskJeves, Google, Myspace, Facebook, Wikipedia came in as a way to tame the web, so you can find information easily, try to block some dangerous information... So it then comes back to a few big companies managing all our data again.

      The problem is that we ask accurate truthful information, but we want our world view to be validated, but every source has a bias and some sources take that bias to spread false information, as it will make money pandering to peoples world views. When we get too distributed we get a lot of dangerous data. when it gets too controlled to much important data is missing.

    • Perhaps China? (Score:2, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      The disruptors are happening, but they are not in the US. China, India, and other countries have their own companies, backed by the government that are breaking ground. For example, Taobao and Single's Day made more revenue than the Christmas holidays. Alibaba, Tencent, and Yandex are booming, while Google is still begging to be let into the party.

    • by corezz ( 1603659 )
      I don't understand what that means....what problem would that be solving and making my life as consumer easier when it becomes distributed? For something to be disruptive it needs to solve an aching problem that a large mass of people have with the current process. Be it, reducing the # of steps, more convenience, etc. If you are going to say more transparency and/or better privacy control then that is not what most consumers think about. They say they are concerned by it but a study that was posted her
    • Perhaps you are mistaken, and are simply witnessing the final stage in the dismantling of the American economy and American innovation:


      http://luiscabral.net/economic... [luiscabral.net]
    • by mysidia ( 191772 )

      That's why the next disruptors will be entirely distributed.

      So.... more services along the lines of SiaCoin's decentralized cloud storage ?

    • That's why the next disruptors will be entirely distributed.

      I'm not seeing anything about cloud hosting costs being the determiner for the kill zone. And I don't know anyone* who cares about the backend technology.

      * Hyperbolic: - I know people like that. But such a small number it may as well be zero.

    • by mikael ( 484 )

      If the system let everyone keep control of their own data on their own server (whether a local PC or on an ISP server) then it would be a big winner. It would have to support storage of copies on multiple servers in encrypted form so that they could be distributed, but the owner still had control over distribution through the decryption key.

  • by sjbe ( 173966 ) on Monday June 04, 2018 @06:43AM (#56723908)

    there is no sign of a new platform emerging which could disrupt the incumbents, even more than a decade after the rise of mobile."

    Google developed Android strictly as a defensive play to prevent them from getting locked out of the mobile ad market (their overwhelmingly primary source of revenue) by Apple, Microsoft, Blackberry, Nokia, and others. In this they succeeded wildly and it will be very hard to displace them.

    All of these big tech companies have VAST amounts of cash available to them. They could easily buy most companies that present a threat to them or buy their way into entirely new industries if they wanted. Apple literally has enough cash to buy both Ford and GM and Fiat Chrysler at their current market capitalization. Microsoft and Alphabet/Google and to a lesser degree Facebook are similarly comfortable.

    • Except they developed Android at the same time as Apple started developing iPhone and they did not really know about each other...

      • Google knew about the iphone. Google's CEO was on Apple's board at the time

      • Except they developed Android at the same time as Apple started developing iPhone and they did not really know about each other...

        Google didn't need to know about the iPhone to know there was a threat to their ad revenue from a mobile device maker controlling their ability to reach end users. At the time they were probably more worried about Microsoft or Nokia or Blackberry but the threat was the same. They also probably were concerned about AT&T, Verizon and that bunch too having too much control over the software and ad platforms. Nobody really could have predicted the iPhone would be the smash hit it turned out to be but pe

        • And computer on the TV is still a valid threat. Google at the original introduction of the Chromecast showed a device much more capable than the one that exists now. Features included displaying your calender and contacts and even Netfilx's front screen, all responding to voice commands. The product as shipped can't do any of that. Yet.

          When it can it might very well replace the computer for people who only use their computer for surfing because it has a bigger screen.

          SmartTVs have failed in this space beca

      • Google bought Android when they were already developing a smartphone OS. It originally was going to compete with the Blackberry, as early prototypes had a Blackberry style keyboard and windows-style task switcher. Once the iPhone came out, they redesigned the OS to be touchscreen-based.

        Android Pre-iPhone:
        https://www.androidcentral.com... [androidcentral.com]

        Android Post-iPhone:
        https://support.t-mobile.com/_... [t-mobile.com]

        • Google bought Android when they were already developing a smartphone OS.

          Makes precisely zero difference if they started development in house or if they bought the tech and continued to develop it. Historical trivia about how the development process happened is unimportant to my point. The important point is A) Google recognized a threat to their business in the mobile market going forward and B) they developed (and yes bought) technology to defend their revenue streams.

    • Google developed Android strictly as a defensive play

      Google didn't develop Android at all, they bought it. And Android development predates iPhone. Microsoft, Blackberry, Nokia, and Palm fumbled and lost the market, while Android and iOS won because they were better. But regardless of this history, that leaves the question: so what? You can get extremely powerful phones with excellent software from two companies now.

      In this they succeeded wildly and it will be very hard to displace them.

      If Google or Apple f

      • Google didn't develop Android at all, they bought it. And Android development predates iPhone.

        They bought it and then they developed the crap out of it. Android did not stop being developed after Google purchased the technology. The argument that Google bought Android and didn't develop it is an idiotic argument that only made sense for about a year. There is no real difference between developing a tech in house or buying a company that developed the tech and continuing the development in house after that. ZERO difference.

        If Google or Apple fail to invest heavily in Android/iOS development, their platform will fail within a few years, just like all the previous mobile platforms.

        Do you seriously think either of those companies is not well aware of that

        • Do you seriously think either of those companies is not well aware of that? What exactly is your point?

          I think the real question is: what was your point. You listed a bunch of irrelevant half-truths in response to an article about "OMG they are killing teh startups". In reality, you are simply seeing a competitive market in action. For some reason that seems to bother you.

          Do I really have to explain to you that having enough cash to completely abandon your original business and enter a new one is a big deal

          • by sjbe ( 173966 )

            I think the real question is: what was your point. You listed a bunch of irrelevant half-truths in response to an article about "OMG they are killing teh startups". In reality, you are simply seeing a competitive market in action. For some reason that seems to bother you.

            Please point out where I said it bothered me. I'm merely pointing out an interesting case where Google developed some technology to keep their market position. If you think what I said was untrue or irrelevant you didn't understand it.

            Yes, apparently you do.

            Already did and you still didn't get it. I'll try one more time. A huge pile of cash lets you buy your way out of almost any threat to your company including but not limited to 1) Buying your competition, 2) Buying into a new industry, 3) Buying your way out of massive str

            • Already did and you still didn't get it. I'll try one more time. A huge pile of cash lets you buy your way out of almost any threat to your company including but not limited to 1) Buying your competition, 2) Buying into a new industry, 3) Buying your way out of massive strategy blunders, 4) Buying technology to keep their market position.

              They are already doing all of that, since their "cash" is likely largely invested in the stock market. When Apple management believes that their special expertise in some t

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        If Google or Apple fail to invest heavily in Android/iOS development, their platform will fail within a few years

        I dunno, look at how little effort Apple puts in to Siri or Apple Maps. Compared to what Google have done with Assistant and Maps, or what Amazon has done with Alexa...

        And yet Apple still sells plenty of iPhones.

        • I dunno, look at how little effort Apple puts in to Siri or Apple Maps. Compared to what Google have done with Assistant and Maps, or what Amazon has done with Alexa...

          Apple is trying desperately to catch up on AI, buying startups and trying to hire like crazy, they're just not succeeding.

          And yet Apple still sells plenty of iPhones.

          And not doing so well. [businessinsider.com]

    • by swb ( 14022 )

      All of these big tech companies have VAST amounts of cash available to them. They could easily buy most companies that present a threat to them or buy their way into entirely new industries if they wanted. Apple literally has enough cash to buy both Ford and GM and Fiat Chrysler at their current market capitalization. Microsoft and Alphabet/Google and to a lesser degree Facebook are similarly comfortable.

      I think there needs to be some kind of disincentive for corporations to sit on very large piles of cash and/or short term investments. I don't know what the "right" number is, probably some ratio tied to business size and revenue, but beyond the magic number maybe they should face taxes that makes even holding treasuries a net negative interest rate.

      IMHO, corporations should either be handing the money back to investors as dividends or using to invest in new products or production. If they're allowed to h

  • by Anonymous Coward

    ...they pay to scoop them up early to eliminate a threat.

    That's my exit plan. My investors demanded a certain ROI (or I get nothing) - and waiting to go public was snickered at (I was even coached NOT to say that during the presentation!) - and if some Big Corp comes by and makes an offer that gives them the return they want, we're selling.

    Bitch and moan all you want about buy and extinguish, but I have no problem with it.

    For those of you that do, do your own thing and you stick it out and deal with the pressures from the investors.

  • by Anonymous Coward

    Despite Google claiming their search results are fair, I never saw any Vimeo videos in the video tab...

  • The wariness comes from seeing what happens to startups when they enter the kill-zone, either deliberately or accidentally. ... SnapChat ... a live video-streaming app ... group video chats

    I don't see what the problem is. If your startup consists of offering trivial technology, you get lots of competitors, including from established players. These companies weren't even the companies that were the first to commercialize their idea, they were simply companies that happened to make a name for themselves.

    There

  • Is it new? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Monday June 04, 2018 @07:46AM (#56724144) Journal
    You think Andrew Carnegie made is easy for anyone to make steel easier in and around Pittsburgh? He employed the Pinkertons to shoot people, guys. His henchman Frick was stabbed at work.

    Rockefeller made it easy for anyone to sell kerosene to light lamps in USA? He colluded with railroaders like Vanderbilt and made it impossible for anyone to compete.

    Edison's General Electric executives actually ended up in jail for violating Sherman antitrust anti monopoly laws.

    Yes, there is probably a kill zone around today's tech giants. But it is a metaphorical. But back in the days, the kill zones were real.

    • Great comments from a rarely well-informed individual.

      Sadly, just a handful of Americans today are even aware that Carnegie was a war profiteer, then later a war-rebuilding profiteer, who made his original fortune by being appointed to Superintendent of Railways and Telegraphs by his boyfriend, Thomas Scott, creator of the financial construct known as the "holding company."
      • by Anonymous Coward

        He watched The Men Who Built America on History. Frick was shot, by the way. He wasn't stabbed. OP must have gone to the bathroom during that scene.

  • Back in the '90s, in the so called "long reign" of microsoft, you needed 100s of millions just to set up the infrastructure you needed for your startup.

    Nowadays, with IaaS and PaaS, setting up and scaling your initial infrastructure, is a piece of cacke, and cheaper (and tax deductible) to boot...

    So no, I think this is a great time to launch a SW startup.

    Finally, if a big thech firm acquires you early on, that's a great way to get an exit, which, VCs shuld love...

    Now, being out-compteded by a bigger rival,

  • If all the startup has to offer is an idea like group video chat, it is going to fail. Ideas are cheap and easily copied. That's always been the case, there is nothing new in this "kill zone." There are reams of analysis on how and when first mover advantage translates into long term business success, and one common thread is that you need a lot more than just an idea.
  • If you are developing derivitave shit, like group video chat which has been around for a decade, then of course any big player can come along and do the same thing. Startups should develop new products, not new brands.

  • Remember when businesses used to talk about competitive advantage? I.e. the thing a competitor couldn't easily replicate? I'm not shedding a tear for a startup that doesn't have one. And again, boo hoo about getting acquired. This is how it works. Take a look at military tech. small companies exist, but basically once you become valuable, you are acquired by one of the 5 big defense contractors because R&D is expensive compared to just buying the winners.
  • or have people stopped founding companies to run a business and started doing it just to get bought out? It's not like they have a choice, it's like the mafia. They come in and say, "Nice business you have here, shame if somebody were to copy it and then bury you with patent lawsuits". And if all else fails they come in with several billion dollars since, hey, the cash was just sitting around in an overseas bank account anyway.
  • It's been going on since the dawn of capitalism. J.P. Getty, John D. Rockefeller etc have been either buying up, or tanking prices to drive out the competition for centuries. If they get "too" big, then it's time to break them up. Standard Oil, Southwestern Bell (At&t)
  • mouthed know it alls who's only response to workplace complaints is "well if you don't like your employer's rules, then start your own company". If it was truly a free market, companies like Facebook and Microsoft would have a hard time staying so large because they wouldn't have access to rent seeking through lobbying local, state, and federal government.
  • by w3woody ( 44457 ) on Monday June 04, 2018 @10:20AM (#56725106) Homepage

    Notice when the current giants in the market became giants: after the passage of Sarbanes-Oxley, which made it far more difficult for mid-sized startups to go to the public markets for funding. When the only practical exit strategy left to you is to be bought out by a Facebook, a Google, an Apple or a Microsoft, then the only strategy you have left as an entrepreneur is to figure out what will get you bought out, rather than going head to head with the large companies as Google once did against a Lycos or an Altavista.

    Without the additional requirements in Sarbanes-Oxley which made accessing the public markets much harder, would we be talking about Github being bought out by Microsoft? Or would be be talking about Github's IPO?

    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      A startup could just go overseas and raise capital beyond the reach of Sarbanes-Oxley. On second thought, that won't work either [wikipedia.org]. Face it. We live behind an economic Iron Curtain.

    • by swb ( 14022 )

      When the only practical exit strategy left to you is to be bought out by a Facebook, a Google, an Apple or a Microsoft, then the only strategy you have left as an entrepreneur is to figure out what will get you bought out

      I've read this is exactly the problem that "innovation" faces now. "Innovators" no longer are really interested in solving interesting problems, the energy now goes into coming up with ideas that are interesting and nip enough at the margins of the heavyweights to get them to buy them out.

  • I'm sorry, but turning down $3 billion? I would have sold out for a thousandth of that.

  • by Anonymous Coward

    This is a classic example of the critiques of capitalism and the failures of an unregulated market. The market by itself will not regulate monopolies on its own.

  • WTF?!?!?!
    These monolith corps need to be reigned in. That is what regulations are for.

    I suggest a capitalism cap at $100M. Anything after that goes to social services and tax programs.

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