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Businesses Transportation

After $702M Loss, Tesla Stock Sinks To Lowest Price in Two Years (reuters.com) 258

Tesla stock price "slumped 5% on Friday to its lowest in two years," reports Reuters, citing in part "a pitch by Chief Executive Elon Musk on autonomous cars that failed to win over investors." Musk is still battling to convince investors that demand for the Model 3, the company's first car aimed at the mass consumer market, is "insanely" high, and that it can be delivered efficiently to customers around the world.... On Wednesday, Tesla posted a worse-than-expected loss of $702 million for the March quarter. Musk said Tesla would return to profit in the third quarter and that there was "some merit" to raising capital....

Tesla's stock has now fallen 29 percent in 2019 and the company's market capitalization has declined to $41 billion from $63 billion in mid-December. After overtaking the market capitalizations of General Motors and Ford Motor in 2017, Tesla slipped back below GM in January, and on Friday it dipped back below the market value of Ford, which saw its stock surge 10% after reporting a better-than-expected quarter. Analysts now expect Tesla's revenue to expand 19% in 2019, compared with 83% growth in 2018 and 68% growth in 2017, according to Refinitiv.

MarketWatch helpfully illustrated the -5.04% drop in Tesla's stock price over three days by animating it over a picture of Elon Musk's face in front of a bullseye.
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After $702M Loss, Tesla Stock Sinks To Lowest Price in Two Years

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  • Analysts now expect Tesla's revenue to expand 19% in 2019, compared with 83% growth in 2018 and 68% growth in 2017, according to Refinitiv.

    So when you make more revenue, it becomes harder to make more revenue than the previous year? You don't say!

    Do people working on Wall Street even know basic math?

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      Revenue is not as important as profit. Which TSLA has consistently shown is very difficult to do. Meanwhile, companies like Ford just crank out above-expected profits.
  • by JoeyRox ( 2711699 ) on Saturday April 27, 2019 @09:48AM (#58500638)
    At an investor presentation a few days before the earnings release, an event Musk dubbed "Autonomy Day", Musk talked about a super-chip [jalopnik.com] that will give Tesla's cars Level 5 Autonomy. Fast forward to earnings day, where the earnings were so bad and the cash burn so high that it became clear to everyone but Musk that Tesla will need to sell more shares to raise capital for ongoing operations, Musk conveniently says that developing and manufacturing his super-chip itself will require raising capital. In other words, he's attempting to hide the fact that Tesla needs to raise money for its basic operations by reframing the capital raise as an expense for a new whiz-bang new technology that will propel Tesla forward into even greater riches. The difference may seem subtle at first but it strikes to the hear of Musk's integrity regarding Tesla's ongoing financial problems.
    • by JaredOfEuropa ( 526365 ) on Saturday April 27, 2019 @10:10AM (#58500730) Journal
      Pretty sad, especially since they make decent cars and IMHO still could turn into a company with sustainable profitability.

      But in the short term, I think they will start to feel the competition a little bit, as well as the tax benefits for EVs getting a bit less in various countries. Looking at the situation here in NL, this year the (insanely) generous tax deduction for EVs on a corporate lease has ended. Tesla sold 2200 vehicles here in December, traditionally a very weak month as most owners prefer to wait and get registration dated January of next year. However Tesla sales for January and February together slumped to 550 vehicles... the Hyundai Kona alone outsold Tesla with close to 900 sales in those months. That despite the fact that Hyundai can't produce these things fast enough, and order to delivery time for one is now 12-14 months.

      Hopefully things will pick up a bit with the standard range Model 3 now being available here (we won't get the $35k version here for a while, the car sold here is the one with the higher trim level). This thing competes on price, trim and range with Hyundai and Kia, and it's one of the few cars that looks like a regular sedan so it will appeal to a fair number of people for whom the Model S or long range 3 are too expensive.
      • Hopefully things will pick up a bit with the standard range Model 3 now being available here (we won't get the $35k version here for a while, the car sold here is the one with the higher trim level).

        Don't worry, NO ONE gets the $35K version, not even in the US... And with faltering sales and profits, there is zero incentive to make a money-losing version. I don't think anyone will get a $35K Tesla.

        • Actually the $35k version does exist, there just aren't very many of them, and you have to jump through a few extra hoops to get one. The 'Alex On Autos' YouTube car review channel just got theirs last week. [youtube.com] (Note: they paids $36k, because they ordered the blue paint option.)

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      The withdrawal of the $35k Model 3 really hurt them. In fact for now they seem to be shipping a more expensive car with software limits to reduce range, presumably at a loss, and you can only order the car in store or on the phone, not via their primary sales channel, i.e. their web site.

      So now there are serious doubts about the Model 3 and Tesla's ability to deliver affordable EVs. Meanwhile the competition is undercutting them with some really good cars that are well into the affordable price bracket, wit

    • Musk conveniently says that developing and manufacturing his super-chip itself will require raising capital

      What is your source on this? According to the information given during Autonomy Day, the chip is already in all new model 3, s and x right now. And manufacturing of the chip doesn't require any Tesla capital expenditure because it's done by the Samsung fab in Texas.

  • by AlanObject ( 3603453 ) on Saturday April 27, 2019 @10:17AM (#58500764)

    Of the top 5 electric cars for last year three of them were Tesla products.

    They can do 5,000 cars a week. New factories in China within 2 years.

    They have no end in site for their backlog with no advertising.

    Other companies have electric cars but nearly every one of them looks like shit sitting next to any Tesla.

    They are building their own battery supply which can outproduce the rest of the world combined.

    Their tech investment in self-driving cars is far ahead of anyone else.

    Power systems, Solar roofs -- the infrastructure that feeds power cars. Imagine early Ford owning Shell Oil. They are ahead in that too.

    None of this points to a company that is failing.

    But to the eternal and orgasmic delight of some parties booking a down quarter means Tesla is effectively out of business. Sorry, macho boys. Lots of tech startups book losses and they don't go out of business. You are mistaking the profitable quarters for Tesla as the best they will ever had. In fact it looks more like part of the chasm as in "Crossing the Chasm."

    None of you ever seem to be discouraged by being proved wrong over and over again. I don't know what makes you take such delight in that but if that's your thing I guess you should go for it.

    • They can do 5,000 cars a week. New factories in China within 2 years.

      They're still stuck at producing 5,000 cars a week? Musk said they were producing 7,000 cars a week back in July. [twitter.com]

      • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

        by AlanObject ( 3603453 )

        They're still stuck at producing 5,000 cars a week? Musk said they were producing 7,000 cars a week back in July. [twitter.com]

        And I remember people like you firmly, absolutely, definitively and no equivocation predicting that they would never achieve 2,000 per week. They would be out of cash before then. Remember? Probably not.

        Sorry, but Musk's track record on predictions -- even admitting to some over-optimism -- is far better than yours.

        • And I remember people like you firmly, absolutely, definitively and no equivocation predicting that they would never achieve 2,000 per week. They would be out of cash before then. Remember? Probably not.

          Sorry, but Musk's track record on predictions -- even admitting to some over-optimism -- is far better than yours.

          People like me? Show me where I doubted Tesla would make 2,000 per week or where I made any other predictions about Tesla

    • Sorry, macho boys.

      Interesting - dare I say revealing? - projection. However, the shortsightedness and greed you refer to are ever-so-slightly orthogonal to [whatever the fuck else] you've got on your mind besides TSLA.

    • They can do 5,000 cars a week. New factories in China within 2 years.

      Wow! Stunning! Five THOUSAND cars a week! Toyota and VW each do about 10 million cars a year [nikkei.com] which - assuming they work 365 days a year - would mean 5000 cars would be a poor output for a quarter of their work day.

      The reality is that EVs are still in the 2-3% range of the market, they are an interesting thing, but by no means a mover and shaker. And considering there isn't an EV company out there making profit, it's not even sure it's a viable solution in the market, servicing that 2-3% segment.

      Crossin

      • Right now, economics and market demand (absent forced/artificial demand created by Government mandate or kickbacks) doesn't really justify EVs as anything more than a curiosity to a very small segment.

        That there is some mighty fine whistlin' past the graveyard there, son.

        So why has VW, BMW, Ford, and all these mega manufacturers suddenly decide they need to invest tons of money in a EV roadmap? (Nissan gets credit for realizing it early.) I guess they didn't get the memo that EVs are nothing more than a curiosity. I think you need to call them up and let them know.

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by yodleboy ( 982200 )

          There's no dialog with people like you. Tesla is only doing well compare to Tesla. Sure major car manufacturers are jumping on the bandwagon, but they are closely watching everything Tesla does wrong. They have the resources to produce just as good an EV as Tesla and to sell it for less and STILL make a profit.
          Tesla's motivations were noble, but the established auto makers have 100 years of experience in bringing a car to market and doing it differently just to be original or 'disruptive' is a why Tesla

        • Because they face either fines or exclusion from the market (California) if they don't. It's not because they are profitable - it's because Government is forcing the issue ahead of being a sustainable business model.
    • by tomhath ( 637240 )

      None of this points to a company that is failing.

      On the other hand, losing $700M in one quarter does point to a company in big trouble.

      Musk has been selling science fiction to people who really, really want to believe he can make it real.

      • by darronb ( 217897 )

        I really wish Tesla had directly broken this down, it would have saved some pain.

        1) 188 million was debt payments. Ok, so this isn't entirely an excuse, you still have to turn a profit. It's not a recurring thing, once they work off their debts.
        2) Because they shifted to producing and delivering cars overseas for a bit (the production line has to reconfigure for that), and it takes a lot longer to get the cars to their destinations... even though they produced a record number of Model 3s (63K), they ended

        • by darronb ( 217897 )

          Imagine if the "last 10 days" deliveries didn't happen until one day into Q2. Tesla would have reported a loss of 2-3 BILLION. Do 10 days really matter that much if they've got the cash to cover it and it's a temporary delay in deliveries? No. This is all bad reporting and shorts.

    • by jwymanm ( 627857 )
      I love the shorters it makes it so we can buy Tesla stock cheaper. It's a steal right now. And with the announcement of 1 million mile batteries as soon as next year with new powertrains and all the new vehicles that will come out. It's hilarious that the only negative aspect of Tesla is that they aren't in a position to deliver their products soon enough for all the demand. And that is some peoples point to sell the stock! Hahahah.
      • by inking ( 2869053 )
        Actually, this time you can thank Tesla itself for the stock being cheaper. They have performed even worse than most bears anticipated. Make sure to send Elon a tweet, I hear he likes people thanking him. ;-)
    • by inking ( 2869053 )

      I don't know what makes you take such delight in that but if that's your thing I guess you should go for it.

      You could have just asked: it’s delicious money. 2017 had been a meh year for the markets, but at least shorting Tesla has been worth it.

    • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Saturday April 27, 2019 @01:39PM (#58501456)

      Other companies have electric cars but nearly every one of them looks like shit sitting next to any Tesla.

      EV sales in the U.S. are not organic. They're driven by California's Air Resources Board (CARB - government agency regulating air quality). CARB implemented a ZEV mandate [ucsusa.org] in 2009. Every year, each automaker is required to sell a certain percentage of ZEVs (zero emissions vehicles). The formula is a bit complex, covering both full ZEVs (EVs and hydrogen vehicles) and partial ZEVs (plug-in hybrids), but for 2018 it required 2.5% of a car company's sales to be full ZEVs. Each year the percentage increases. For 2025 it's 8%.

      If a car company fails to sell their quota percentage of ZEVs, it must buy credits from a company which exceeded their quota. This is why Musk started Tesla. He realized that due to the credits, even if he had to sell the EVs at a loss, he could still turn a profit by selling the credits. If a company fails to buy enough credits to meet their quota, they are subjectto fines, and then eventually are banned from selling cars in California. And since about a dozen states automatically adopt CARB's guidelines, that car company would be banned from all those states comprising roughly a third of the U.S. population.

      No car company wants to be banned from a third of the U.S. market. So they're all busy developing and marketing EVs. And due to the strict percentage quota, if they're not selling enough EVs to meet the quota, they will run sales and incentives to move those EVs off the lot, even if it means selling them at a loss (basically ICE vehicle sales subsidize the EV sales). So the EV sales figures you're seeing aren't due to organic demand, they're due to deliberate price manipulation to hit an artificial government-mandated quota.

      Anyhow, getting back to Tesla now that the background material is out of the way, for 2017 (the latest year in which CARB has data [ca.gov], all the manufacturers hit their ZEV quota targets except Honda and Toyota. Honda just barely missed their quota, and bought credits from Fiat Chrysler. Toyota missed their quota badly and bought credits from Tesla. All the other major car manufacturers hit their quota. So buyers apparently disagree with your opinion that other EVs "look like shit sitting next to any Tesla." They've been buying non-Tesla EVs in sufficient quantity for those automakers to meet the ZEV mandate on their own.

      I suspect this is why Tesla is having the problems it's having. They're probably trying to delay Model 3 production until later years, when the ZEV quota percentage is higher and thus the credits will be more valuable. But they also need to fill orders to make money and stay afloat. Which puts them between a rock and a hard place - fill those orders now to stave off bankruptcy, or save them for the future to make more money. Musk was probably gambling that it would take the other car companies longer to bring viable, attractive EVs to market, thus making the Tesla credits more valuable. But the speed with which they've rolled out EVs has cratered the value of the credits and put Tesla in a financial bind. This isn't to say Tesla is doomed. As the quota percentage gets higher, it becomes harder for manufacturers to subsidize ZEV sales with money from ICE sales. That could turn things around for Tesla. Or it might not.

      I should also point out that California has reneged on the ZEV mandate before. They first tried to implement it in 2000. That's why there was a flurry of activity developing hybrids in the 1990s, and why GM developed the EV-1 [wikipedia.org]. Most of the Japanese car companies researched exotic (at the time) battery technologies. Most of the American car companies bet on hydrogen fuel cells. GM s

      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by Anonymous Coward

        The way to generate ZEV credits is to sell a bunch of super crappy super cheap cars (despite the extra credit for range). The more expensive the car, the less important any ZEV side of it is. Tesla is doing the opposite of what your theory predicts that they would be doing.

        Meeting an arbitrary tiny proportion of EV sales for other companies does nothing to show that Tesla vehicles are not superior, obviously - on your theory of the world, any car that sells a tiny proportion of a company's sales is as good

  • by aaarrrgggh ( 9205 ) on Saturday April 27, 2019 @10:39AM (#58500848)

    Happy to get a cheap entry price for some more shares, not particularly concerned. When a stock does what Tesla did, a lot of big investors are required to significantly reduce their position for two quarters before re-evaluating.

    Tesla has issues, but they are so much better positioned than the rest of the industry for the next 3-5 years. Money where my mouth is...

    • Happy to get a cheap entry price for some more shares, not particularly concerned. When a stock does what Tesla did, a lot of big investors are required to significantly reduce their position for two quarters before re-evaluating.

      Tesla has issues, but they are so much better positioned than the rest of the industry for the next 3-5 years. Money where my mouth is...

      "Don't try to catch a falling knife."

      Tesla has issues, but they are so much better positioned than the rest of the industry for the next 3-5 years.

      Maybe, just maybe, there's a reason other than inability that no other car manufacturer with billions of dollars at their disposal is jumping headlong into electric just yet.

      • by tomhath ( 637240 )

        Maybe, just maybe, there's a reason other than inability that no other car manufacturer with billions of dollars at their disposal is jumping headlong into electric just yet.

        This is the most insightful comment of all. The other manufactures are pouring a lot of money into R&D, but they aren't promising anything they can't deliver. I expect electric cars will be a significant segment of the car market within a few years. And I expect the next car I buy will be all electric - I'm really looking forward to it; but they're not quite there yet.

        • by inking ( 2869053 )
          I can tell you for a fact that my next car will not be electric, because I like many people I live in a major metropolis and there is no infrastructure in sight for me to charge it overnight. ICE? No problem. Hybrids? Sure. Hydrogen cell of death contraptions? Absolutely. EV? Nope.jpg.

          This is not a Tesla-specific issue, but rather something that will be difficult to overcome is a number of markets, especially Western Europe, where street parking is what most people not living in a village have to deal with
      • I think i have the creds to be considered a pretty savvy investor based on past history. I sold puts with the intention to buy shares at expiration, so I end up with a sufficient margin to be pretty well insulated from everything but bankruptcy. For my investment hypothesis the legacy manufacturers don’t have to “lose” for Tesla to “win.” Ultimately, I think their success is going to be in selling software and drive trains more than cars.

        As for other manufacturers, VW’

  • Too much hate towards Elon Musk and Tesla. The company is selling U.S. cars and exporting them. They have tens of thousands employees. Why does people wants to close a company that proved it can make money, is selling products and has cash flow?

    • It's the hype people hate, and what appears to be and may turn out to be some creative accounting. The rest of the industry isn't falling behind, they just don't have to put all of their eggs in a single basket (EV) and can afford to play the long game. Tesla is doing NOTHING that any large manufacturer could not do next month if they wanted to throw the money at it. The purchase side of cars may be a load of crap overdue for change, but the manufacturing side is done the way it is done by some of the la

  • by seoras ( 147590 ) on Saturday April 27, 2019 @03:35PM (#58501946)

    I'm not an American so I'm looking from the outside in.
    Those Americans who are trying to run Tesla into the ground, because they don't want change or trying to make money shorting, are doing their country a disservice.
    China wants to replace America as the world's top economy and super power.
    They have one resource in abundance that no other country has - human resources.
    They've gotten smart and realised that they can't achieve their ambition with out educating their people and becoming a leader in technology.
    Look at Huawei, if you think that is just one area they want to become #1 in think again.
    One of their other targets is the EV market. [wired.co.uk]
    The thing that made America great was being the birth place of technological revolutions.
    Aircraft, telephone, television, light bulbs, it's a long list. The space race left a legacy of innovators.
    The one thing that will ruin American, that ruined "Great" Britain, is conservatism.
    The complacency that comes with success and an arrogance of greatness earned by previous generations and squandered by the current one.
    I don't like Trump but at least MAGA acknowledges things aren't as good as they once were.
    You might not like Musk but he's put America back in the lead in 2 key technologies.
    Explain to a non-American, like me, why would you want to see him fail when his failure would also be your country's?

Keep up the good work! But please don't ask me to help.

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