PC Shipments On The Decline (mediapost.com) 105
Mobile seems to be taking its toll on the old PC. From a report: For the first time since 2010, personal computing device shipments will drop below 400 million in 2020, according to a new forecast. Shipments of the devices, including PCs and tablets, is projected to decline 2% a year until 2023, according to the forecast by the International Data Corporation (IDC). The reality is that consumers have become more used to computing on-the-fly, thanks to portable and mobile devices. The forecast reflects some of this, with convertible PCs and detachable tablets expected to grow slightly.
Call me a Luddite ... (Score:2)
... and I'll agree to some extent. I got my first microcomputer (TRS-80) in Feb, 1978.
My IT career was based on supporting users with desktops.
I use a desktop at home.
I also use tablets and smartphones, but for strenuous article-writing, the desktop is still my go-to.
I'm 73 and can't see all that well. I do see that the desktops that are available cost way too much.
A small Chromebook would probably be my choice id desktops fade away.
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Just wait. The broke hipsters and millennials don't know yet that 2002, I mean, 2020 will be The Year Of Linux On The Desktop (tm)
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I think that real reason why Linux On The Desktop (TM) never took off is because we got "Linux In Your Pocket" instead. Instead of taking Microsoft head on, the smart money did an end run around them and came up with a whole new platform to dominate.
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Sure, whatever you want to believe. The main reason Linux on the desktop failed is horrible support. The only place where Linux has succeeded is where the user is not responsible for maintenance of the platform (websites, phones, etc.).
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Even then, fragmentation and poor support models are still the primary problem with Android, and the main reason not to use the platform. Same as it ever was.
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Yes, but at least it works without having to type something in the Terminal every 10 minutes.
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The main reason Linux on the desktop never took off was the Microsoft leaned on the OEMs to not sell computers with Linux pre-installed. As for lack of maintenance on this desktop the 'software Updater' takes care of that. As compared to the Microsoft industry standar
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I think "Linux everywhere BUT the desktop" is what happened.
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Well, it didn't help that you have a half dozen different Linux development teams making competing text editors, front end UI's, media players, and office suites that weren't fully compatible with each other.
Shit like that doesn't happen at places like Apple... you're going to make ONE consistent UI and you're going to make work right or else you get canned.
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So, computing?
Netflix and Candy Crush aren't computing. "The reality is that consumers have become more used to being consumer cattle."
Unless they're in a website that does the process for them, they'll panic and flail when trying to do anything computing. Even shit like "view a video".
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Unless they're in a website that does the process for them, they'll panic and flail when trying to do anything computing.
Like what?
Even shit like "view a video".
You mean double-clicking it? ...and you mean viewing a video is "computing" but Netflix isn't "computing"?
I can shoot video on my iphone and airdrop it to any mac then just play it, why should it be any more complicated than that? Or I can use pretty much any messaging app to send it to any device and play it in the app itself. Why would anybody want needlessly complicated ways of doing things?
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>>why should it be any more complicated
Because an all-purpose computing device lets you use arbitrary means to achieve arbitrary ends. Granted, most people don't want or need that.
>>I could do it
Talking about Joe Sixpack. Me getting into the iOS DCIM to achieve something doesn't brand it Accessible. Deny that we're surrounded by people who resort to emailing themselves files. https://xkcd.com/949/ [xkcd.com]
Re:Call me a Luddite ... [via your smartphone?] (Score:2)
A small Chromebook would probably be my choice id desktops fade away.
That's along the same lines I'm thinking. [Taking your typo of "id" as "if". FP rush much?] I'm also more likely to buy a tablet than another Windows box, but I might change my mind about Apple. I have to admit that my ancient MacBook Pro has rather exceeded my expectations.
However on the main story, it made me realize that I've bought at least 3 smartphones since the last time I bought a computer for myself. (Ignoring work computers. Perhaps 5 of those?) Counting dead ones, there must be half a dozen smart
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i own 2 smartphones, a galaxyS9+ and a Nokia 7.1 i bought the Nokia when i realized i do not like the way android (samsung's build of it) wont let me remove certain apps, facebook & bixby and others, so i disabled them as much as possible, so i try the Nokia for a week and switched back to the Samsung because it is better hardware
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Hmm... My mix of computers is similar to yours, but it sounds like you're relatively new to smartphones?
My own feelings are mixed. I prefer the big displays, but quite often these days I just grab a smartphone and get-er-done. And the smartphones are getting more and more of my time (at least until recently).
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Similar. But with me, it's three desktops, two laptops.
Not counting "spares" (so I'm a packrat...sue me!) which are basically the previous generation of everything but my last phone (after it took a bath in used motor oil, not much point in keeping the leftovers)....)
Re:Call me a Luddite ... (Score:5, Insightful)
I guess I'm a Luddite too then.
I use a multi-monitor desktop workstation for work and most computing, because I can. I can have a real keyboard, while looking at several big 4K monitors, and getting complex tasks done. Complex for me at least, maybe I'm just not as smart as people who work on a 2 in 1 with a 13" screen.
Don't get me wrong, I have and use such devices but if I want to get some real heavy lifting done I settle into my Aeron and work in front of a 42.5" main display, with reference material readily visible and unobscured by the work in progress. When this machine dies I might switch to a slightly larger 2 in 1 ... and then USB-C connect that to my big monitor and real keyboard.
I think the major reason for the decline in PC sales is that the PC has become so darn fast and capable for such a low cost that even near entry level machine simply work adequately for a much longer time now. Even for gaming, a several year old gaming system can generally play games pretty well.
I got a small chromebook, my kid has it now. The one thing that killed it for me was the lack of a real keyboard, mostly that it had no DEL key, which is an unforgivable sin for a lot of what I use a portable for. In its defense, it's the best Android tablet I've ever had, and it was/is fantastic at that.
My current portable is a Dell XPS 13 2 in 1. Love it.
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Yep, Luddite as well. Multi-monitor setup at work and at home. Just because it is far easier to do workflows and multitask on multiple screens with a desktop OS that one can easily do what one wants. Virtualization? Just a window away. Watching a log file? Look at a screen. Troll Slashdot while a git pull is being done? Easy peesy. The PC desktop role is excellent for content creation.
Laptops can do a desktop role, especially if you add a monitor, mouse and keyboard. You can also do work just on a
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Let's not forget that refurbished desktops are often good enough, and they probably aren't counting these in the numbers. I paid $150 for an old Dell Optiplex that I hooked up to my TV and use as a media center. Works great, and if I needed another desktop I would just buy one of those and put an SSD in. $200 for a fully working machine complete with Windows License. It doesn't play games that well,but for a basic desktop I don't see why anybody would run out and buy a new machine in this day and age unles
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2% a year decline until 2023 still leaves 350M desktops shipping by 2023. They're not going away in your lifetime, or most likely mine.
Whereas once the desktop was the solution to all compute problems, there are now laptops, tablets and phones in that space. Each taking a portion of the functionality the desktop once performed. Some people do not need all the functions a desktops provide, and thus do not use desktops anymore. But most of us do, as such they still exist and still ship in large volumes.
More i
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I agree with everything you (or Jobs) said, except that I do not trust corporate interests and self control. They have a strong desire to try to secure the PC, or secure the Macintosh, and that may end up stifling it. Invariably the various digital "storefronts" will become the point of sale, but their owners may elect not to carry applications that they deem inappropriate by any definition: from outright illegal, to not desired on their platform, to technically invalid for one reason or another (perhaps st
Rent a Mac (Score:2)
Steve Jobs said it best - in the post-PC era, PCs are not going away. PCs are like trucks [...] If you need to move a few piece of furniture, nothing beats a truck. But if you're going into a crowded metropolitan area, a truck isn't the best vehicle to zip around in, or even try to find parking for
How practical is it for a regular user of an iPhone to rent a Mac the way one can rent a truck from U-Haul?
Is it PCs or tablets that lead the slide? (Score:4, Interesting)
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I'm not even entirely sure why they're bundling tablets and PCs into the same stats. A decade ago, PCs were apparently declining because tablets were killing them and going to replace them. It was obvious to anyone that a) had used a tablet and b) had half a brain, that they were never going to replace PCs for everything from software development through to word processing, and CAD to graphic design. Tablets are nice for browsing the web, and some games, but basically nothing else. It was pretty clear that
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The funny thing is that PC shipments would perk back up if vendors would start doing some enterprise tier features. Deduplication, autotiering, and RAID are long since solved problems (be it VDO + mdraid, or something more advanced like ZFS.) Having PCs have a RAID controller which could take drives and do ZFS abilities would likely sell units, especially if backups and snapshots could be doable at that layer. Security? One could add block encryption at this level as well. Since Windows 10 can't do sys
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Most people don't care about any of that stuff. The real "problem" is what they have works and they see no reason to spend more money to do what they can already do.
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These things can all be done now buy buying the appropriate hardware. But no one (well, almost no one) wants to spend the money on the hardware. And manufacturers do not build this stuff in because building in hardware that was worth having (by the people who want those features) would make the hardware too expensive for everyone else. For that reason you have the crap that you see today, which consists generally of "crappy hardware" suitable for the masses that is dirt cheap, with the ability to "add-in
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Slashdot should have referenced the original source with the actual numbers:
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp... [idc.com]
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> nearly all that slide
You guess wrong; slate tablets are forecast down 5.2%, desktops down 4.3%, notebooks down 10.1%. 2 in 1's up 3.8% and ultraslim notebooks up 5.5%.
Put another way, non-2 in 1 PCs will be down 20.9 million units per year by 2023; tablets will be down 22.2 million units (so slightly more in absolute count but less as a percentage); 2 in 1's will be up by 6.6 million units.
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Clarification, down at a CAGR of -5.2%, ...
MAY be on the decline (Score:2)
This is forecast. "PC Shipments May Decline" FTFY.
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There's a growing trend of /. mods not RTFA before they write TFS
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PC shipments *have been on the decline* for an extended time. This forecasts the trend to continue.
https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]
less incentive for PC upgrades = less turnover (Score:5, Insightful)
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I don't think mobile devices are a replacement for the desktop PC or explain the decline.
I agree. I would help friends and family with their computers and as part of my services I would haul away whatever it was they didn't want any more for recycling. Often I'd get perfectly working hardware but it was simply deemed too slow, too old, or whatever. Now I rarely get anything in working order. I'm still hauling away hardware for recycling but I don't find anything I can recycle for my own use and amusement, I recycle it by taking it to the county recycling center.
I see a few other things that
Re:less incentive for PC upgrades = less turnover (Score:5, Insightful)
The author made that up (Score:3)
That's something the journalist of TFA made up. It's not in the original IDC report [idc.com]. And in fact, it's wrong. The IDC reports that year-over-year smartphone sales are down 4.1% [computerworld.com]. Which is actually more than the reported 2.4% drop in PC+tablet sales.
What we're seeing is a general overall trend of a longer replacement cycle, as improvements in computing technology slows down. I'm still usi
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Beyond regular video is (A) stereo video aka "3D" but it does not require an order of magnitude more of anything. At most it requires 2x the resources, but in practice its much less than 2x, (B) higher resolutions aka "4k" and "8k" but again, not an order of magnitude more of anything.
Contrast this with circa year 200
Still using my decade old custom built PCs. (Score:2)
I have a 12 year old Linux/Debian Jessie v8 box and a decade old Windows (32-bit XP Pro. SP3 -> 64-bit 7 SP1) box. I only had to replace failing hardwares like drives. My Linux box likes to hard crash once in a while though. I think its GeForce 8800 GT video card is the cause since if I touch it, it will beep and/or crash hard (no video signal). :(
Less sales (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Less sales (Score:4, Insightful)
Yeah, it doesn't help PC makers that a five year old Core-i5 system can do 90% of the work that a normal end user needs to do without issue. That makes upgrades a tough sell, especially when we all have backup computers (smartphones) in our pockets for basic work like checking e-mails and checking your calendar.
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So basically, the problem is that Microsoft hasn't put out a really innovative version of Windows in recent years like they used to?
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Yeah, it doesn't help PC makers that a five year old Core-i5 system can do 90% of the work that a normal end user needs to do without issue
It is not 90%.
It is 100%.
Slashdotters need to understand that "normal end user" means your parents, or their parents (depending on your age.) We are not "normal end users" nor are we even a close approximation of them. "Normal end users" browse the web, email and instant message, and maybe (just maybe) encode a video of their grandchildren a few times a year. Not only does an old i5 satisfy their needs, a much much older Core2 does too.
Once upon a time, MOST computer users were a close approximation
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And even when you do replace, you can resell rather than discard.
Grammar matters... (Score:2)
For the first time since 2010, personal computing device shipments will drop below 400 million in 2020
Well, it would be odd if they dropped below 400MM in 2020 BEFORE it was 2010.
IMHO (Score:2)
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My i7 950 seems to be waiting for I/O more than anything, and that's with the OS on an SSD and data spread across two rust spinners. It'll do me for a few more years I suspect.
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If you have a PC that old, something's gonna break soon. Probably the power supply, or maybe a fan. As an added bonus, you might get some popped caps on the motherboard. That thing is old enough that if it's cheap, there might still be some electrolytic caps on there somewhere.
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I also have a 750, and people have advised me to get a Xeon X3470. It's pretty cheap ($20 on eBay), has a greater clock speed, and the extra threads give a decent boost in programs that are well optimized for that.
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Good. PeeCees are usually Windoze junk. (Score:1)
Build your own. (Score:2)
That's the way to get a great desktop compatible with your distro of choice without paying the Microsoft tax.
It's still as easy as it used to be, parts and case selection is spectacular and tutorials abound so instead of grumbling you can have as capable a system as you wish. Cases and case modding offer many ways to get the style you want.
Simple market saturation (Score:2)
I currently have 3 very functional PC's. They kind of refuse to die.
I doubt I'll buy another for quite a while.
Makes sense. (Score:2)
Though the stock market has been just delighted by mergers and consolidations of power, and the 'stability' that those bring - the actual human cost of these last few decades has been more complex.
See - that same market has brought about its usual renovations, with some forms of food cheaper and more plentiful. Also, cheaper marketplaces like Aldi and dollar stores have made it more possible to live on less.
But at the same time, outside of the super-rich, the practical, usable income for the poorer majorit
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people, and small businesses, spend less on things like new PCs, and do more things like watching youtube on how to build a PC from parts
I didn't read TFA... But I'm assuming none of these numbers include people building PCs, and it make me wonder if that would even be a noticeable number as is. I've never bought a computer, but have built all mine for gaming and such for the past 25 years.
Like an earlier poster, I prefer to do everything on a PC rather than my phone. I don't have trouble seeing the screen. I just prefer a bigger screen. I prefer my bigger, better speakers. I prefer typing at 100+ wpm on a keyboard with near 100% acc
Several reasons (Score:5, Insightful)
Not only mobile devices have become sufficient for quite a lot of people for all their limited computing needs, normal PCs have recently stagnated. 20 years ago if you didn't update your PC every three years, you risked getting a potato which could barely run anything at a decent speed.
PCs starting with the release of the Intel Sandy Bridge uArch have seen barely any visible performance increases (in terms of single-threaded performance) and if you bought your PCs in the last eight years you can make it a lot faster by adding more RAM and swapping your HDD with an SSD, so buying a new PC unless you're into some heavy stuff like rendering, compiling or encoding, doesn't make a lot of sense.
The last important reason is that people used to buy a new PC whenever a new Windows version came out (logically doesn't make a lot of sense but that's what it is). With Windows 10 formally there are no longer any new Windows releases despite the fact that each year Microsoft basically releases a new Windows 10 OS (but most people don't know or understand that).
Even GPUs nowadays are getting faster at a lot slower rate than they did in the recent past.
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The last important reason is that people used to buy a new PC whenever a new Windows version came out (logically doesn't make a lot of sense but that's what it is).
It was entirely logical in the minds of people who are incapable of installing or upgrading an operating system. To them Windows is an integral, essential, inseperable and baked-in part of their PC, and they would no more have installed a different Windows version than they would change the software in their washing machine's control module. Microsoft of course have always nurtured this notion.
That's why Linux never had a chance back when desktops were popular. People who knew that I took a PC and inst
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These days not only is updating Windows a lot easier then in the past, you have to work hard to prevent Windows from updating itself.
Just wait until January, when Windows 7 dies... (Score:2)
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We're replacing our Win7 machines with Linux blade servers, so I don't see that helping much.
No surprise (Score:2)
Most people have never needed a computer, they needed some sort of enhanced communications device, and until the last 10 years or so, the only game in town was a full-blown computer. The vast majority of users never did computing tasks on it. Now they have something that serves all their functions but can be carried in their pockets, so, fewer actual PC.
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But with more people choosing to own only a smartphone, the upgrade from "some sort of enhanced communications device" to a general-purpose computer is more likely to carry a substantial sticker shock, as well as culture shock from lack of familiarity with desktop operating systems' GUI.
A market for everything (Score:4, Insightful)
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Portable devices though will always have an edge in new sales over desktops due to higher risk of damage, battery degradation, etc.
That's a really good point, I guess add theft in there too.
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Unless you're an enthusiast PC gamer, there's no reason that a PC built in 2009 won't serve you just as about as well as a PC built in 2019.
This probably depends on the buyer and how crappy their computer and internet habits are. My parents would buy a new computer every 6-7 years. Every time they bought a computer it would be something like.... the Best Buy computer on a big clearance/whatever sale for $200. And of course these would be the computers made with bare minimum (read: it can turn Windows StillBeingSoldButNotCurrent on after 5 minute) specs required from 5 years before. Then they would always want me to clean a bunch of crap off
Once upon a time (Score:3)
Once upon a time, games are what pushed the boundaries of PC hardware.
A new game would come out that would require beefier hardware to play and it is typically what lit the fire for folks to upgrade their systems.
( I recall some games you simply couldn't use top quality settings because the hardware didn't even exist yet to provide decent frame rates )
These days ?
With few exceptions, most of the games can be easily played on existing hardware ( I dunno if Crysis will ever be playable on anything ) up to ~five years old so there isn't any incentive to upgrade the PC at all. Couple this with the fact that many folks have since switched to consoles for their gaming needs and, outside of niche applications, there really isn't much need for that super horsepower computer any more.
Thus, we don't sell nearly as many PC's.
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But you need the latest and greatest PC and graphics to run Classic WOW ...
Oh.
Um.
Never mind.
2 things (Score:2)
1 we usually buy Linux blades
2 don't upgrade Win machines as often, what's the point
There's little reason to upgrade for most people (Score:5, Insightful)
The people who use computers for more than a handful of productivity tasks and maybe some light gaming are in the vast minority of people who use computers. Most of those are people working on video editing (and a lot of those are locked into Macs) or moderate to heavy gaming (and many of those will build their own systems). I play a substantial amount of games myself, but even I'm getting by on my 2011 desktop with an i3-2120; the only performance-impacting upgrades I've really made have been throwing more RAM at it and replacing the ancient graphics card with a GeForce 1060 (which according to the bottleneck website I used is actually a pretty good match).
So yeah, it makes sense that there are far fewer PCs shipping out these days. A lot of those will probably end up being Chromebooks because Google's decided not to update ChromeOS (literally an OS that just boots into a f-ing browser) past some arbitrary number of years (I think 5?) even though Chrome itself gets updates for much longer on standard Windows-x86. The far worse situation is smartphones and tablets, though; updates on those things are a mess. Devices that are perfectly capable of doing what people need them to do are "obsolete" because the vendor doesn't want to ship updates because they'd rather have people buy a new device instead. I think it'll take a while, but that situation will probably eventually stabilize, too.
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I have a Lenovo T410 with an i5. Windows 7 runs well; Windows 10 runs unusably slow even on a brand new 500GB SSD. (I bought a refurb Lenovo L440 to take the SSD, and that runs great, and put the old SSD back in to the T410.) There is always the odd exception that proves the rule, but some PCs do run better with Windows 7. Getting back on topic, all my laptops are at least 5 years old, and aside from music production (for which I have a specialised PC with a 9900k), everything else runs great on the older h
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One Reason (Score:2)
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No one wants WIndows 10 (Score:2)
Maturity, not just mobile (Score:3)
Raspberry Piâ(TM)s Taking Over (Score:2)
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How fast does your Raspberry Pi 4 emulate an x86 or x86-64 processor when running software whose publisher has not yet made an ARM build available to licensees?
Again? (Score:1)
PC shipments have been on the decline since ... (Score:2)
PC shipments have been on the decline since Al Gore invented them back in 1776.
That's what Alexa [slashdot.org] says, anyway.
Understandable CPU performance info might help. (Score:3)
The desktop industry is doing a bad job of self-promotion.
CPU naming conventions are fucking gibberish to retail customers who want to know what's noticeably faster for their tasks. Notebook ergonomics can never not suck, notebooks are more expensive and less upgradeable for a given level of performance, and machines like my P52 excepted have little onboard storage for serious users. Powerful notebooks run hot. There are no graphics card upgrades unless you hassle with an external GPU.
Yah, pussies everywhere (Score:3)
Let's see you match my Threadripper + Ryzen VII box with your pussy slim tablet. Go ahead, make my day.
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What do you mean, my non-touch screen? Yes, I do have some of those, but I am ok with touch also. And also I like my touch digitizing tablet.
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Heck even my old 4770K is still fine with the games I play (Path of Exile excluded, but everyone's have problems there). All it needs is a reseat of the CPU cooler with new goo, and a bigger SSD sometime f
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"I'm so glad I'm a beta."
Haven't we heard this about a dozen times now? (Score:2)
Have we always been at war with Eastasia or something?
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Give me a break (Score:1)
Mobile seems to be taking its toll on the old PC.
Retards have been claiming phones and tablets will kill the PC for over a decade. It ain't happening. What you're seeing is the fact that orders for all kinds of durable goods are down. It's called the beginning of a recession, idiots.
Comment removed (Score:3)
You can't ALWAYS increase sales (Score:3)
..or profits, or GDP, or anything else for that matter. Especially with a declining population.
Capitalism gets broken when you believe this myth.
But CEO's around the world are constantly tasked with this objective. Year over year, revenue/ profits MUST increase.
At the expense of anything and EVERYTHING else.
It's dumb. and it needs some consideration.
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except the percentage of people who will own some kind of mobile device, smart or not, is increasing. There is population that will become part of market. Also smart phone market supposed to pick up in 2020 anyway.
On the decline, but still 400 million (Score:1)
First, let's discuss how huge 400 million is. Second lets remember that just because a PC didn't ship, doesn't mean a PC isn't being used. Most PCs are lasting 8 years due to the death of the processor doubleing every two years. New PCs just aren't that much faster. I know multiple consumers (people) with 10+ year old PCs and they are still using them. Many enterprise companies have changed their desktop refresh to 5 years. So assuming 400 million this year, and include the past 5 years at the same quantity
Thank you, cellphones! (Score:1)