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Stats United States Medicine

America Now Has Most COVID-19 Deaths in the World -- 20% of All Fatalities (usnews.com) 631

An anonymous reader quotes Reuters: U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus surpassed 20,000 on Saturday, the highest reported number in the world, according to a Reuters tally, although there are signs the pandemic might be nearing a peak. Italy has the second most reported deaths at 19,468 and Spain is in third place with 16,353.

The United States has five times the population of Italy and nearly seven times the population of Spain.

The United States has seen its highest death tolls to date in the epidemic with roughly 2,000 deaths a day reported for the last four days in a row.

While America has 4.3% of the world's population, it appears to have nearly 20% of the world's 100,000 confirmed fatalities from COVID-19. [Update: This comparison might be skewed by countries underreporting their fatalities.] Long-time blogger Jason Kottke notes the virus is now causing more deaths per day in the U.S. than any other cause, including heart disease and cancer.

But earlier this week Kottke also shared graphs from six different countries visualizing positive new statistics from the Imperial College team suggesting social distancing has worked in 11 European countries they analyzed.

"We estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March," the researchers write, adding "Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels."
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America Now Has Most COVID-19 Deaths in the World -- 20% of All Fatalities

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  • Ask China (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Xenographic ( 557057 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @06:43PM (#59933990) Journal

    Maybe we should ask China how they just made Covid disappear like that. /s

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by largesnike ( 762544 )
      They are so irresponsible - Its the place where COVID-19 began, and so getting reliable stats out of the place is crucial, but no, instead they lie, lie, lie
      • Re: Ask China (Score:5, Insightful)

        by jrumney ( 197329 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:40PM (#59934216)

        It was crucial, back when they were the only country with a substantial problem. Now we have plenty of countries producing reliable data, so we can just ignore China if we don't trust the data coming out of there, and it won't really affect our body of knowledge.

    • I can't speak for China, but I have a hunch I know what North Korea would do. Shoot everyone who coughs. Stops transmission, and it's death by gunshot, not death by Covid.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by joe_frisch ( 1366229 )

      They completed locked down the infected areas, then tested and tracked. S. Korea tested and tracked early. Both succeeded in mostly controlling the epidemic. Nothing mysterious or surprising. Exactly what you would expect. I don't know why this confuses people, we know how infectious disease works - or at least some of us do

      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        The problem is that most people are unable to do fact-checking and get confused by "alternate facts".

      • Re:Ask China (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Kreplock ( 1088483 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:15PM (#59934106)
        So... do you believe the reported numbers from China are accurate..?
        • Re:Ask China (Score:5, Informative)

          by joe_frisch ( 1366229 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:20PM (#59934130)

          I think they are probably lying but I don't think they could hide the millions of deaths that they would have had if they had not contained it. There is enough contact with people who have friends and family in those areas that they couldn't hide a large ongoing outbreak.

          Its not really important if they are off a factor of 2 in deaths or cases..

          S. Korea is probably not lying much and they also have it under control.

          It doesn't seem surprising. If you seriously lock down a country you expect the virus to die out. I really don't know why this surprises people. Its exactly what a basic analysis of the situation would suggest . How is it we are being outsmarted by something the just exponentiates.

          • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

            by gweihir ( 88907 )

            China has contained it. And they are careful in re-opening things. Sure, the zero rate of new infections is not credible, but if the rate was anything but low and below the rate of people cured, we would know. This is not the completely locked-down country it used to be anymore.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      By all accounts the measures taken were draconian. Sixty million people were confined to their home under strict orders. Checkpoints were set up and people moving around their neighborhood were stopped and interrogated. The government deployed its surveillance and tracking capabilities to identify people moving around too much who got a visit from the police and publicly shamed. Door to door screeners reported people with temperatures to be carted off to quarantine centers. All travel in and out of the m

  • Crap Data (Score:5, Informative)

    by KermodeBear ( 738243 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @06:43PM (#59933992) Homepage

    - A COVID-19 Death is not reported the same way in all countries.
    - Testing in the US is becoming more widespread than, say, India.
    - We're transparent with our data unlike, for example, China and North Korea.

    If someone isn't tested, but their death is due to COVID-19, that person never shows up. If someone simply disappears and isn't report, then that person never shows up. Highest in absolute numbers is a pretty meaningless stat compared to per-capita.

    Editors, we are smarter than this. Please don't lower yourselves to these kinds of clickbait articles. It's pathetic and I expect better. Yes, even after all of these years, after all of the craptacular stories, I still do expect some standards.

    • by Z80a ( 971949 )

      We most likely will never know the true numbers, given how many people never checked due being a "nothing" to em.
      But those many people still transmit the thing

      • by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

        Oh it will be discoverable. Right now a COVID-19 death can be swept under the rug as pneumonia or flu, but when all the stats are in hand months or years from now, it will be obvious where the bodies were dumped, and a proper accounting should be possible.

    • Re:Crap Data (Score:4, Interesting)

      by arbiter1 ( 1204146 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @06:48PM (#59934004)
      A death in the US can be called a covid death IF the doctor suspects they had it even if the death wasn't cause of it.
      • Mod parent up!

        Average number of deaths per day in the United States: " In 2017, an average of 7,708 deaths occurred each day. [cdc.gov]" (July 5, 2019)

        Total number of deaths in the U.S. in 2017: 2,813,503 [cdc.gov].

        Coronavirus deaths up to April 11, 2020: 20,562 [worldometers.info]. (Not known when they started counting.) If they started counting January 1, 2020, that is 101 days, and 204 deaths per day.

        So, the Coronavirus Covid-19 has caused 2.6% of the deaths.

        Most Coronavirus articles are of VERY POOR QUALITY.
        • Most Coronavirus articles lack overall information or underlying details.

          If someone has cancer and gets a Covid-19 infection and dies, that death is counted as caused by Covid-19, apparently almost always.
        • but the reason COVID-19 deaths are so low is that we've taken extraordinary measures to slow those deaths. In fact it's likely those measures are depressing overall death rates (since there's fewer car wrecks, few folks getting pneumonia, etc, etc).

          I don't think it's that the articles are poor quality. They're emphasizing the amount of deaths because give what we're doing to stop them there's still a _lot_ of deaths.
        • by Admiral Krunch ( 6177530 ) on Sunday April 12, 2020 @03:43AM (#59935590)

          Average number of deaths per day in the United States: " In 2017, an average of 7,708 deaths occurred each day. [cdc.gov]" (July 5, 2019) Total number of deaths in the U.S. in 2017: 2,813,503 [cdc.gov]. Coronavirus deaths up to April 11, 2020: 20,562 [worldometers.info]. (Not known when they started counting.) If they started counting January 1, 2020, that is 101 days, and 204 deaths per day. So, the Coronavirus Covid-19 has caused 2.6% of the deaths.

          It doesn't matter when they started counting if you can see the first US death is Feb 29 from your very own link.
          So January 0 deaths
          February 1 death
          March 4,063
          First 11 days of April 16,514
          That's accelerating quickly isn't it...

          You couldn't possibly be naive enough to assume averaging from Jan 1 to April 11 would give you anything meaningful.
          You must be just trying to downplay it.
          Average deaths for April so far is 1500. check that against your 7700.
          1500 / (1500+7700) comes to about 16% (just assuming the usual number of people died).

          So coronavirus caused 0% in Jan
          0% in Feb
          1.7% in March
          16% so far in April
          And about 20% of the deaths every day for the last few days have been due to coronavirus...
          Maybe it's a big deal after all hey.

          Most Coronavirus articles are of VERY POOR QUALITY.

          Most Coronavirus comments are of VERY POOR QUALITY too.

    • by HiThere ( 15173 )

      While the data from everywhere is crap, that everywhere definitely included the US. Probably most COVID deaths are attributed to something else, as most people don't get tested, no matter how sick they are or with what symptoms.

      NYC has just started guessing (not testing) deaths as being due to COVID. They're probably more or less correct, as the huge number of deaths is difficult to explain any other way, but they're guessing, not testing. And the numbers from last month didn't include those excess death

  • Its amazing how only raw numbers or only per capita numbers matter depending on whats politically convenient at the time. 1. Trump: The US is doing more covid testing! Media: FACT CHECK https://www.usatoday.com/story... [usatoday.com] 2. The US has less per capita cases than plenty of other countries and surprisingly few considering all the connections and huge population it has. Its actually doing pretty well outside of New York. Media: FACT CHECK
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      FACT CHECK: The US is still early in the graph and a 2nd wave (in addition!) is a real possibility.

      • by HiThere ( 15173 )

        I believe you're correct, but the testing is insufficient to establish that as truth.

        Can there be a second wave if you never get past the first wave?

    • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @09:23PM (#59934600)

      Ok, let's fact check. The USA are about 2 weeks behind Italy in the disease. 2 weeks ago, Italy had about 2000 deaths (or about 30 per million). The USA has now about 60 per million. Plus a skyrocketing infection rate.

      Do we have to wait another 2 weeks before we call a spade a spade or can we start doing what we can to save a few lives now?

  • Unfortunately systems for collecting data less than ideal with emphasis on mitigation. As understanding improves so can efficiency and effectiveness of methods to prevent, detect and treat. This headline should highlight the need to improve preparation. Learn and adapt, or /.
  • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:07PM (#59934068)

    Could we concentrate on fighting the disease and when we're done and have it under control, we get to the finger pointing and blame game?

    Fuck, people, priorities!

    • Leaders on both sides have made some absolutely boneheaded moves on this issue. But of course here we have it - the tireless screeds dumping everything one way. It's a sickness all its own.
    • by xwin ( 848234 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:29PM (#59934162)
      I was working for a Japanese company at some point and picked up one interesting bit of information. When there is a problem Japanese are looking at how to fix it and Americans are looking at who to blame. It always has been true at least in my observation and I think it still is. The funny thing is it does not matter who is responsible, what matter is what went wrong and how to prevent it from going wrong again. But I think in US if you can pin it on someone often time there is a big money involved and people get rich. But in the coronavirus type of scenario I think it would be hard to get rich by lawsuits but I guess there is an army of lawyers that is ready to prove me wrong.
      • by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:52PM (#59934268) Journal

        When there is a problem Japanese are looking at how to fix it and Americans are looking at who to blame.

        Perhaps Japan, as a heavily hierarchical society, is set up in such a way that it isn't necessary to find who to blame, it's already decided: the person at the top of the hierarchy gets the blame.

        Since that is decided so simply, it is easy to get past it and start solving the problem.

  • For Two Years? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by RossCWilliams ( 5513152 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:18PM (#59934118)
    "Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels." According to one new study, stopping the spread of Covid-19 will require around 80% of the population to be immune. We are a long way from there. And we really have nothing in place to quarantine geographically in the meantime or even to identify and separate people who are infected from those who aren't. We are simply telling everyone to stay away from everyone else. Count me as skeptical that will work for a couple years without a police state.
  • U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus surpassed 20,000 on Saturday, the highest reported number in the world, according to a Reuters tally, although there are signs the pandemic might be nearing a peak. Italy has the second most reported deaths at 19,468 and Spain is in third place with 16,353.

    The U.S. has over 5 times the population of Italy, and 6 times that of Spain — comparing absolute numbers is bogus.

    While America has 4.3% of the world's population, it appears to have nearly 20% of the world's 100,

  • It's about damn time we took the lead in something. MAGA!
  • Good thing a conservative is in charge, or this would be a major problem!

  • The United States has five times the population of Italy and nearly seven times the population of Spain.

    In other words, if you can do math, our death rate is far below theirs.

    Long-time blogger Jason Kottke notes the virus is now causing more deaths per day in the U.S. than any other cause, including heart disease and cancer.

    Are we sure? If someone dies of heart disease but tests positive for COVID-19, are they now magically a "COVID-19 death with an underlying condition"? I've seen articles lately about "where have all the heart attacks gone", that kind of thing.

    • Not in NYC - there the death rate is by far the highest in the world. Also the USA is a week behind Italy.

  • Thanks (Score:2, Informative)

    Thanks, DONALD.

  • Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:36PM (#59934192)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @07:58PM (#59934296)

    While America has 4.3% of the world's population, it appears to have nearly 20% of the world's 100,000 confirmed fatalities from COVID-19.

    If you're going to compare percentages, then compare percentages - look at the deaths per 1 million [worldometers.info] (basically percentage of population times 10,000). The U.S. is doing much better than Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, the UK, Luxembourg, Sweden, and Ireland. And the hardest hit country is tiny San Marino whose 35 fatalities represents more than 1 in 1000 of its 33,500 residents. If the U.S. had a fatality rate that high, it would have 339,000 dead instead of just 21,000.

    That said, New York state is doing worse than Italy and Spain (440 deaths per 1 million, vs 322 and 355 respectively). A stat that makes me question what those in the media praising Cuomo have been smoking. The state totally screwed up its virus response. This also means that if you subtract New York, the rest of the U.S. is doing about as well as Germany (34 deaths per million). California, which instituted quarantines and stay at home orders quickly, is actually doing much better than Germany (16 deaths per million).

    Most of the developing world hasn't yet been fully hit by this virus. The U.S. and Europe got hit first because of their large number of travelers. Unless some drug which can treat it is found in the next few months, the total number of fatalities in those countries will grow by a *lot* as the year progresses. The OECD countries which have made it through the virus are going to have to spend even more money providing humanitarian medical assistance to developing nations to prevent the total death toll from rising into the millions.

    • 5% of population and 20% of deaths, no matter how you spin it, that is a disgraceful figure.

    • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @09:28PM (#59934636)

      You're also about 2 weeks behind in the infection cycle compared to Italy and Spain. 2 weeks ago, Italy had about 30 deaths per million.

      Want to continue this talk in 2 weeks? Provided you're still alive, of course.

    • by jrumney ( 197329 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @10:02PM (#59934750)

      Per capita comparisons are only meaningful when the countries are at a comparable point in the infection curve (basically, you're going to have to wait until it is all over for all countries to reach that point). While the virus is still actively spreading, perhaps more meaningful than deaths per million population would be deaths per thousand cases. This still depends on how quickly new cases are coming into the pipeline, as there is a delay between a new case contracting the disease and death, and on the detection rate (US has done 8000 tests per million population, compared with 7500 for Spain so they should be reasonably comparable, but Italy has done 16000 tests per million population, so could be expected to have found more minor cases which would have gone undetected in Spain and US).

      There are too many variables really to compare figures now. Like you said, the initial start of the disease in each country is basically random, weighted by population (bigger countries have more people coming and going), wealth (richer countries have more people coming and going, hence many developing countries are yet to be hit hard), and proximity to the starting point for the disease (Asian countries were hit early). Rate of spread once the disease is established is exponential if left alone, the exact rate influenced by population density and cultural practices. And death rates are going to be affected by age distribution as well as efficiency of the health service in each country, and how well the disease is kept out of rest homes and other high risk places, which is partly down to management and partly just luck.

  • by passionplay ( 607862 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @10:11PM (#59934786)

    This is the kind of irresponsible reporting that confuses people. 20% of all the deaths - really? USA % of deaths worldwide is: 14,793 / 108,827 x 100% = 13.6%. What does the % of deaths worldwide tell us about conditions in the country - absolutely nothing. And what percentage of the cases worldwide is that? USA % of cases worldwide: 431,387 / 1,780,314 x 100%=24.2% What does this tell us?

    The facts would support the assessment that we're doing a better job of containing the disease. Otherwise, we would have 24.2% of the fatalities as well. The facts don't care about your feelings or my feelings, nor do they care about the story the media wants to tell. It took me all of 15 minutes to get these numbers. They could have done the same.

    Let's be real instead of succumbing to media hype and no fact checking. Just because the media throws numbers at us and tells us a story they want us to believe does not make that story true. No matter how many times they repeat it. At best, the media knows this. At worse, the media chooses to not investigate or doesn't have a clue that their numbers are wrong and that you can't randomly put things together to create a denominator.

    Here the countries with higher mortality rates in ORDER: Algeria, Italy, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Spain, France, Belgium, Sweden, Indonesia, Morocco, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Mexico, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Brazil, Romania, Philippines, Greece, Denmark, China, Ireland, Switzerland, Slovenia, Argentina. We are number 27 ranked by fatalities. We have 430K+ cases and 14.8K deaths for a mortality rate of 3.43%. Italy and Spain are at 12.67% and 9.98% respectively.

    When you have access to numbers, it's easy to collect any bunch of values as your denominator and then generate percentages to fit your story. There are only 2 constants in life: death and taxes - statistics is not one of them. And as the adage goes: there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

    Statistics can be convoluted to tell any story you want. It's only when rigorous processes are applied as taught in statistics 101, that you get an accurate picture of the truth. The rest of the time statistics is just used as a paint-by-number to tell the story you want.

    So the next time someone throws statistics at you, ask yourself, "What story are they trying to tell and what numbers did the exclude to do so?"

    Move along. Nothing to see here. These aren't the droids you're looking for.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105914/coronavirus-death-rates-worldwide/ [statista.com]
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ [worldometers.info]

  • In other news (Score:5, Insightful)

    by avandesande ( 143899 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @11:03PM (#59934960) Journal
    235,000 people died last month in USA of other causes

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