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Cringely Predicts the U.S. Can't Stop WeChat (cringely.com) 134

An anonymous reader quotes long-time technology pundit Robert Cringely: Forty-five days from now, we're told, President Trump will shut down TikTok and WeChat. TikTok, maybe, but WeChat? Impossible...

Trump has a chance of taking down TikTok, the short form video sharing site, because that service is dependent on advertising. He can force the app out of U.S. app stores (though not out of foreign ones) and he can cut off the flow of ad dollars... at least those dollars that flow through American pockets. But there are workarounds, I'm sure, even for TikTok and 45 days is a lot of time to come up with them. So maybe the service will be sold to Microsoft or maybe not. In either case I'm sure TikTok will survive in some form.

WeChat, on the other hand, will thrive.

WeChat, if you haven't used it, is the mobile operating system for China. It's an app platform in its own right that is used for communication, entertainment, and commerce. Imagine Facebook, LinkedIn, PayPal, Venmo, Skype, Uber, Gmail and eBay all in a single application. That's WeChat. It's even a third-party application platform, so while U.S. banks operate on the Internet, Chinese banks operate on WeChat. Shutting WeChat down in the U.S. would be a huge blow to WeChat's parent company, TenCent, and a huge blow to the Chinese diaspora. Except it won't work.

To defeat President Trump, all WeChat users need is a Virtual Private Network and any WeChat users already in the U.S. already have a VPN to defeat the much more formidable Great Firewall of China.

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Cringely Predicts the U.S. Can't Stop WeChat

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  • Does anyone give a shit what Cringley (not his real name) says?
    • Re:Cringely again? (Score:4, Informative)

      by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Sunday August 09, 2020 @02:44PM (#60383373)

      Well, he is correct.

      I use WeChat every day.

      From a tech standpoint, there is no way for the government to stop me from using it without building a Chinese-style national firewall.

      From a legal standpoint, there is no way for the government to stop me from using it without tossing the Constitution into the shredder.

      • From a tech standpoint, there is no way for the government to stop me from using it without building a Chinese-style national firewall.

        Who said they won't implement a firewall, I am not saying they should or I would support it, but it clearly is technically feasible, and given enough fearmongering possible. You could argue that if China can build a firewall to keep out the bad capitalist ideas, why shouldn't the US do the same to keep out those bad communist ideas out. Most people will not care as long as they get to post their selfies and messages.

        • Re:Cringely again? (Score:5, Insightful)

          by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Sunday August 09, 2020 @03:33PM (#60383515)

          why shouldn't the US do the same to keep out those bad communist ideas out.

          Because one of those bad ideas is that the government should control what people do, read, and think.

          If we have to become them to oppose them, then what is the point?

          • by Hognoxious ( 631665 ) on Sunday August 09, 2020 @05:25PM (#60383849) Homepage Journal

            It's not oppression when *our* side does it ... it's, ummm, standing up for traditional values or Jesus or something.

            • I'm curious what you'd think if it were a country that allowed for the possession and distribution of underage pornography. Would you feel like there should be an attempt to stop it technologically? Or just allow it to be out there on the internet because it's that country's right?

              • This debate was had in the 1990's on whether people should be allowed to use cryptography - without requiring backdoors for the government to make sure they weren't breaking laws. In the end, cryptography won out - in principle. But of course it never ends.
          • It totally makes sense if you have played Civilization. Trump wants to keep the cultural dominance in the US, compared to China, as you have to do in the game for a cultural victory. Tik Tok and WeChat are spreading the Chinese culture, making China look nice and interesting.
            I already often felt with Bush as if his diplomacy was from the Civilization 1 game, maybe the Replubican presidents get their training from there.
            To be more realistic, the influence probably went the other way, from Republican world
        • by cusco ( 717999 )

          Most people won't, but the corporations who actually run the country would have a cow. Ain't happening.

        • Re:Cringely again? (Score:5, Insightful)

          by infolation ( 840436 ) on Monday August 10, 2020 @01:53AM (#60384727)
          Building an equivalent to the GFW in the USA it is not technically feasible in 45 days or even in the next 4 years of a potential second term.

          The GFW is not just a technical solution, or a willingness to over-block, but includes a huge army of manual enforcers, and a fear-based self-censorship component to achieve its ends. But from a purely technical point of view, the foreign facing portion of China's network infrastructure is far less porous than Americas, since it was built with censorship in mind.

          Technical enforcement

          In China, the Internet developed with choke points built into it. Virtually all Internet traffic between China and the rest of the world travels through a small number of fiber-optic cables that enter the country at one of ten different backbone access points, seven of which had only been added in January 2015. A limited number of international entry points, coupled with the fact that all Internet service providers in China are licensed and controlled by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, mean that Chinese authorities can analyze and manipulate Internet traffic much more easily than, say, the United States.

          Manual enforcement

          An estimated 50,000 employees make up the Chinese Internet police force that manually monitors online content, directly deleting undesirable content or ordering websites, content hosts and service providers to delete offending material. In addition, the government hires around 300,000 members of the '50 Cent Party' (ie paid at the rate of 50 cents RMB per post).

          Self censorship

          The Chinese government has also been successful in fostering a culture of self censorship on the Internet. Not only are ISPs expected to monitor and filter content on their networks according to state guidelines, but all Internet companies operating in China are also required by law to self censor their content. As a result, many large Internet companies also employ their own computer algorithms and human editors to identify and remove objectionable material. If companies can't successfully censor their content, they face harsh penalties: warnings, fines, temporary shutdowns and possible revocation of their business licenses. Netizens themselves are also expected to toe the party line online, and similarly face serious consequences — you could lose your job, be held in detention or go to prison. There's even a euphemism for the stern warning you could receive: being "invited to have a cup of tea" with government officials.
          • Manual enforcement

            An estimated 50,000 employees make up the Chinese Internet police force that manually monitors online content, directly deleting undesirable content or ordering websites, content hosts and service providers to delete offending material. In addition, the government hires around 300,000 members of the '50 Cent Party' (ie paid at the rate of 50 cents RMB per post).

            Is that all?
            That part doesn't seem like much of a problem.
            America has More than 30 million people on benefits [bbc.com]

            This week, nearly 1.2 million people filed new claims for unemployment. More than 31 million people - roughly 1 in 5 American workers - continue to collect the benefits.

            They could even work from home.

    • As someone that lives very near Mark's birthplace I don't care what you think.
  • by DogDude ( 805747 ) on Sunday August 09, 2020 @01:44PM (#60383157)
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but can't people just go to any web page to download an "app" for their phones? If so, there's literally no way for the US to stop people from installing software on their phones, barring a major, nationwide firewall like China has.
    • ... barring a major, nationwide firewall like China has.

      Stephen Miller [wikipedia.org] dreams of this ... and not just for creating a U.S. Internet, which would, I guess, then be called the Intranet.

    • by Anonymous Coward
      No? You cannot download unapproved apps on iPhones, so that is at least 25% of the US market.
    • but can't people just go to any web page to download an "app" for their phones?

      Congratulations on predicting the future. See the US reassert governance over a DNS system. No, you won't be able to go to the wechat webpage.

      Call it the "long arm of the law." They never did convict Al Capone for his mobster activities, but they did nail him on tax evasion.

      It's that same principle that makes me think Cringely will be wrong on this one.

    • On iPhone, that's quite wrong. Only developers are allowed to install their own self-signed apps, and they further require regular re-signing.

      On Android, that is possible, but a number of security warnings must be bypassed. Apps attempting to self-update generate further warnings in later versions of Android. Also, in the standard configuration, Google Play Protect can be quite incessant about prompting for removal of apps that it deems unsafe, but that feature may not be triggered given Google's wishy-w
      • On iPhone, that's quite wrong. Only developers are allowed to install their own self-signed apps

        Fuck that. Do you buy these machines, or rent them?

        • by ediron2 ( 246908 )

          Reality called. Regardless of what you or I might _want_ to be the case, iphones cannot bypass the app store.

    • by antdude ( 79039 )

      Sure if you want malwares. Also, I think Apple users won't let users download from their stores unless jailbroken. :P

  • It's "pundits".
  • The U.S. should have something like this, maybe called UsChat. Then we can have Us and they can have We for our respective chatting, but they probably won't be able to interoperate because we and us won't technically be the same thing, even though linguistically they are. For clarity, each can refer to the other as "ThemChat". Obviously, the Great Firewall of China, and whatever like that the President would really like the U.S. to have, will also get in the way... In related thinking, the U.S. version

    • That's not really the goal, the goal is to pressure the people of China to change the CCP.

      We want to be friends with China, and we've helped each other a lot over the last 100 years, from Vietnam, to WW2, to plenty of positive trade agreements. But when the CCP prevents free speech, that is a human rights violation and it needs to change.
      • by HiThere ( 15173 )

        If that's the goal, dubious, this is a really stupid approach. I find it much easier to believe this administration has just decided that they want as much control as possible, and this is a way to get more. Which is still stupid running up to an election, but less so...and might even work.

        • It's just a new form of the protectionism the administration has been preaching from the start. When US companies can't compete in the market (like Vine losing to TikTok), the government can step in to outlaw foreign competition. Then an inferior US clone of it can take over that market and money. Throw in a silly pretense of caring about user privacy to stop the WTO from issuing a fine.

          • Pretty sure vine didn't loose out to tiktok. Pretty sure vine died cause the company that bought it killed it off, probably long before tiktok was even a glimmer in some developer eyes. Or perhaps tiktok came about because it was killed off?
        • I find it much easier to believe this administration has just decided that they want as much control as possible, and this is a way to get more.

          That's because you're assuming based on what you've seen, and your gut feeling, which is leading you astray. You haven't actually looked at the actions and words of the administration on the topic, and your opinion is based on ignorance.

      • That's not really the goal, the goal is to pressure the people of China to change the CCP.

        The result will likely be the opposite.

        China has suffered from centuries of foreign interference. They are very hostile to outsiders trying to impose changes on their country.

        America is not going to "fix" China. That is up to the Chinese people.

        • Nobody ever said USA foreign policy was intelligent. Same as 40 years of sanctions are the only scapegoat allowing the Islamic Republic to stay in power, and 60 years of sanctions ensured continued communist rule in Cuba. And the Soviet Union was defeated by offering help instead of sanctions.

        • America is not going to "fix" China. That is up to the Chinese people.

          That is literally the sentence you quoted, and tried to disagree with.

      • by cusco ( 717999 )

        Free speech has never existed in the last 5000 years of Chinese history, they don't see it as anything lacking. On the other hand they have full employment and there is no starvation, which is a new development in China. Unfortunately the US doesn't see hunger and poverty as human rights issues.

        • If mainland China doesn't want free speech, it is up to the people who live there, but they shouldn't keep removing the rights of people who live around them (HK, XJ, etc).
        • by N1AK ( 864906 )
          China has neither full employment or no starvation. And how exactly do you know they don't see anything lacking? The vast majority of Chinese people have no influence over political decisions, and can be dissapeared or just made an 'unperson' if they become too much of an inconvenience to the state.
          • by cusco ( 717999 )

            The vast majority of Chinese people have no influence over political decisions, and can be dissapeared

            And in what way is that different from any other time in the last 5000 years there?

  • You gotta vote him out!

    The problem is:

    Trump v. Biden

    People can move to open source if they really want to circumvent the political stupidity

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by HiThere ( 15173 )

      The problem is that a Biden isn't a great choice either. Yeah, he's better, and I'll vote that way, but he's not a good choice. Warren was the better choice.

      OTOH, it's possible that Biden is more electable. Perhaps it was the pragmatic choice. But the "lesser of two evils" is still evil. And occasionally turns out to be not that lesser.

      E.g., Trump may have been the US president the world needs at this time. He's thoroughly trashed the US alliances, and rendered the country helpless against COVID, and

      • Re: (Score:1, Flamebait)

        by Gavagai80 ( 1275204 )

        China has not been building bases in Canada and Mexico, China has not been patrolling the California coast with their navy. They were never going to be the ones launching the first strike of WWIII, they never even got to the planning stages of building the capability for global (rather than regional) military (rather than economic) hegemony. The USA is quickly becoming a wounded animal with a nuclear arsenal and less to lose, so the chances of WWIII are not going down.

        • by HiThere ( 15173 )

          And the point is because of Trump's actions they don't need to. We've isolated ourselves, so no need for anyone else to try.

          Also, with everyone having ICBMs of various kinds, local bases are a lot less important than they used to be. So don't fixate on them. And remember that most of the land in the world is Eurasia (+Africa). Look at the "Belt and road" plan that is being implemented.

      • Support for Trump is pathological, that has always been crystal clear.

        I guess we're expected to settle for Biden, the 44 year incumbent, since nobody bothered to vote for anyone better, or really even look for anyone better, they all wait for some big mass media endorsement to follow, or they wouldn't know who to vote for.

  • any WeChat users already in the U.S. already have a VPN

    I can verify that this is 100% false.

  • by Mononymous ( 6156676 ) on Sunday August 09, 2020 @02:25PM (#60383307)

    any WeChat users already in the U.S. already have a VPN to defeat the much more formidable Great Firewall of China.

    Nope. My wife's parents and siblings have been using WeChat as a group-messaging app for the last couple of years.
    We're talking non-tech-savvy, rural, white Anglo Americans.
    The idea that WeChat is just for the Chinese diaspora is laughable.

    • by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Sunday August 09, 2020 @03:24PM (#60383487)

      There are no reasons to use WeChat as a chat platform. Chat platform is a tiny portion of WeChat, most of it is various payment, shopping, ordering, Chinese bureaucracy, etc platform. And most users are Chinese, with most of the rest being their family members. It's a Chinese piece of software specifically written for Chinese audience.

      For actual chatting, everything from whatsapp to telegram to signal, to countless other options is utterly superior in everything from having a user base outside Chinese people, interface, security, performance, and so on.

      Unless your wife's parents and siblings are ethnic Chinese (reminder: China considers all ethnic Chinese people to be Chinese and as such their people regardless of citizenship status or residency status) or married to Chinese, or live in a Chinatown and need local services that they can only get from WeChat, there's simply no reason whatsoever to even hear about WeChat outside news.

      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        by sea4ever ( 1628181 )
        I use WeChat, and you're definitely wrong here. It's better than Whatsapp, Signal, and Telegram.

        For one thing, WeChat allows plugins. Whatsapp doesn't. Signal doesn't. Telegram doesn't. For another thing, WeChat has seamless integration with the facebook-like profile pages and feeds, better security than facebook (when you add a friend you have very fine-grained permissions on what you allow them to see or have access to. I can add someone on WeChat and allow them access to *nothing*. They'd go into my c
        • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

          >WeChat allows plugins.

          Because it's not a chat platform, but one stop shop for everything Chinese people might need.

          >For another thing, WeChat has seamless integration with the facebook-like profile pages and feeds

          Because it's not a chat platform, but one stop shop for everything Chinese people might need.

          >when you add a friend you have very fine-grained permissions on what you allow them to see or have access to. I can add someone on WeChat and allow them access to *nothing*. They'd go into my con

          • Eh? The rest of the functionality (whether it's 90% or 99% or 99.99%) that he doesn't use is irrelevant, as long as the bit he does use works for him.

            • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

              Sure. And the point remains that if you're not Chinese or want to message Chinese people, people you want to message are almost certainly not on it.

              The rest of the arguments are just silly as I point out, like "support person can change my UI for me". And you have to remember that WeChat being pretty much the primary way CCP handlers track and target Chinese expats nowadays, you're going to get a lot of sock puppets making frivolous arguments like these.

              • Sure. And the point remains that if you're not Chinese or want to message Chinese people, people you want to message are almost certainly not on it.

                [looks at contact list]

                German, Portuguese, Mexican, Zimbabwean, Russian, Belorussian, Israeli, British, American...

                Pretty much everyone I want to message is on it.

        • Why would you use any other messenger app on your phone when there's already a universal messaging mechanism between phones SMS/MMS. A bit more than a year ago I gave up on having some dozen different msging platforms installed on my phone. It's fucking insanity. I now tell people no I'm not installing your msging platform of choice. Here's my number send me a txt. Not to mention txt messages don't tattle on you that you've read it, or that you're typing and then decide to wait till some later appropriate t
  • by PPH ( 736903 ) on Sunday August 09, 2020 @02:31PM (#60383333)

    Shutting WeChat down in the U.S. would be a huge blow to WeChat's parent company, TenCent, and a huge blow to the Chinese diaspora. Except it won't work.

    Why won't it work? From a technical point of view. Sure it will cause great pain for the Chinese diaspora. And if the ban extends to Tencent's holdings (League of legends and Fortnite), I suppose a lot of teenagers are going to have to read a book or play outside. But domains have been seized and servers blocked. before. If by "It won't work" you mean it's not legal, just or constitutional, when Biden says "We're going to take your guns" and everyone treats that as fait accompli, how does Fortnite differ? Do you really think you can stand up to the US military when they come to your front door and demand to delete your games?

    • How would men in the military like getting deployed to force people to delete some games? Besides, gamers are even more stubborn than Viet Cong.
    • False statement (Score:3, Insightful)

      by DogDude ( 805747 )
      when Biden says "We're going to take your guns"

      False statement. That never happened.

      Do you really think you can stand up to the US military when they come to your front door and demand to delete your games?

      What are you talking about? This doesn't make any sense.
  • by vux984 ( 928602 ) on Sunday August 09, 2020 @04:43PM (#60383741)

    Kocking it off the primary app stores would be enough to cripple it beyond saving in the USA.

    Apple's chokehold on the ios app store will be enough to kill it for >40% of the country if it were removed from the app store in the USA.

    Knocking it out of the main android app stores just in the US market, forcing people to use offshore 3rd party app stores or sideload it and then use a VPN, obviously won't prevent people from getting it if they want it but would be sufficient to cripple it for anyone not dead-set on having it.

    • Interesting. And that would mean that Chinese Americans would need to ditch Apple for Android. Apple would not be pleased!

      • by N1AK ( 864906 )
        Assuming that Chinese Americans want to jump through the hoops to install an app that almost certainly won't be in the play store either.

        I can't get upset about this. China blocks just about any platform it doesn't have control over, that's why WeChat is so dominant. Facebook, Twitter, Skype etc etc etc are all restricted in China and non-Chinese have to fuck around to deal with that, so I could care less if WeChat face the same issue.
    • Time for the US to realise its not the entire world and there are more than enough people outside the US to support an ecosystem. The only thing this does is put Apple, Google et al in conflict with US law vs non-US law - if the EU require Apple, Google et al to continue to allow the apps access to the European stores for example, including payment systems - whose law are they going to follow?

      • by vux984 ( 928602 )

        a) I specifically restricted my comments to the US jurisdiction; as removing wechat from US appstores would effectively cripple it in the US. I never said anything globally, and the global situation really doesn't matter in terms of the US administration looking to protect US residents.

        b) " if the EU require Apple, Google et al to continue to allow the apps access to the European stores for example, including payment systems - whose law are they going to follow?"

        -- I'd love to hear your rationale on why th

  • by Anonymous Coward

    I am all for pounding the narcissist moron in chief and there's no possibility at all that he's doing this for the right reasons, but WeChat is defintiely somethign we should hurt any way we can.

    WeChat is a tool for the Chinese totalitarian state.

    You don't buy things with cash or checks or even credit cards in China. You buy them with WeChat. You need a phone on and logged in as you when you make a purchase of food, beer, etc. The phone knows who you are, as an individual, and where you are. Messages se

  • VPN? That's his argument? As if people are going to incur an extra charge for a legit secondary service just to run their prefered mobile OS. Does Wechat even have a significant US user base?

    • Almost every Chinese person, even third generation immigrants, and likely any of their family members, and anyone who travels to China outside of guided tours all use it. No idea what the number is on that. Five million? And you don't need a VPN to use it, so TFA is way off base with that comment.
  • What? Afaik VERY FEW of them have those specialized VPNs (obfuscated protocols such as shadowsocks, v2ray, etc). I mean, why would they? They are in the US after all.
  • Trump won't do it because he this is the trend. He makes threats on Twitter promising to do some thing x, and then ends up backing out without admitting that's what he's doing. Alternatively, he does do some thing x, and then a few weeks later he reverses course. It's happened so many times now I've lost count. A major recent example is when he sent federal agents into Portland, and then removed them not long after.

    Tbh, this whole thing is just a distraction from the pandemic and the state of the economy an

  • I don't think Trump cares about stopping people from mainland China, from accessing their WeChat while traveling abroad. That's completely besides the point.

    He just doesn't want it to become influential and widely used in America the way he fears TikTok may be doing among teenagers, and he certainly doesn't want US government employees using it on their work phones. I think he can definitely stop the latter, and while I'm not sure if he can stop the former, Cringely's argument doesn't apply to that, eithe

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