Zoom, Other WFH Tech Darlings Risk User Exodus as the World Reopens (bloomberg.com) 34
Many internet companies posted record performance during the pandemic as consumers turned to apps and other cloud software to work, study, socialize and shop from home. But as vaccines roll out and restrictions relax, some of this unprecedented digital demand is fading. From a report: Data from research firm Apptopia reveal how the superstar apps of the Covid-19 era are faring now in the U.S. Plus, stats from New Zealand, a country that reopened earlier, show what the future might hold for these services. Here's the main takeaway: Many well-known apps are losing ground, or usage has stabilized. Some behaviors are sticking, though, suggesting the pandemic will provide a more-permanent boost for a few internet companies.
Zoom Video Communications's app has been so ubiquitous during the pandemic that it's now a verb. Lately, though, workers complain of "Zoom fatigue," and data from New Zealand are ominous. Usage has dropped in that country as employees and students return to offices and schools. Even in the U.S., where most offices remain virtual, Zoom use peaked in September. The company said recently it's well positioned for strong growth. Microsoft's Teams communication software was another work-from-home hit last year. That service has seen mobile app usage decline, too, especially in New Zealand. Other staples of the virtual workplace are here to stay, according to Apptopia data. DocuSign's app, which lets you sign contracts and other documents digitally, has seen consistently high usage lately. The app has become a popular way to close real-estate transactions, so it is likely getting an extra boost from the housing boom.
Zoom Video Communications's app has been so ubiquitous during the pandemic that it's now a verb. Lately, though, workers complain of "Zoom fatigue," and data from New Zealand are ominous. Usage has dropped in that country as employees and students return to offices and schools. Even in the U.S., where most offices remain virtual, Zoom use peaked in September. The company said recently it's well positioned for strong growth. Microsoft's Teams communication software was another work-from-home hit last year. That service has seen mobile app usage decline, too, especially in New Zealand. Other staples of the virtual workplace are here to stay, according to Apptopia data. DocuSign's app, which lets you sign contracts and other documents digitally, has seen consistently high usage lately. The app has become a popular way to close real-estate transactions, so it is likely getting an extra boost from the housing boom.
Growth? (Score:4, Insightful)
How does Zoom feel it is well positioned for growth (the source is paywalled)? Is it going into new markets or something? They just went through a worldwide event which drastically increased the usage of its core product. I would figure that they would understand they would treat this as an immediate influx of cash, a hastening of the corporate shift to remote work, but ultimately it would take a long time to reach 2020 usage again.
Re:Growth? (Score:5, Informative)
I suppose it depends on how many companies bring their staff back to the office. I know we will likely go into the future with a more open schedule with more opportunities for staff to work from home, but it certainly won't be at the level it is right now. That means, in absolute terms, we'll probably kill half our licenses. If they crank up the price, it might be even more than that.
Re: (Score:2)
I suppose it depends on how many companies bring their staff back to the office.
Even so, I don't see an obvious path for significant growth there. One would assume that any companies which *don't* bring their staff back to the office have already been using Zoom since last year.
Re: (Score:2)
Or companies/orgs that do bring staff back keep using it to eliminate between meeting walk times, etc.
EG - on the college campus I work at, IT is on one side and a mile away is the presidential/provost/etc. folk. Any meeting my boss has to plan over there need a 10 minute buffer on either end just to walk across campus and back. Same if any of those folk need to come to us for a meeting, etc. Not to mention our branch campuses that are 10-20 miles away.
Re: (Score:2)
Charging more. I don’t see that working out for them though, as Teams becomes a go-to for most businesses (despite being a slightly inferior product for video meetings).
Personally, I think a number of these platforms should have enough of a breather to actually innovate a bit from lessons learned in using the products at the worst time. There are some huge opportunities for improving the way we work apart without just trying to take being together. In my industry I hope to see in-person external meeti
Re:WFH? WTF? (Score:4, Informative)
And, already, I am expected, as a matter of course, to know what "WFH" stands for.
Now that you've come out from under the rock you've been hiding under for the last year, let me tell you about this browser feature that you've been missing out on. You can highlight a term you don't know, like WFH, right-click it, and select "Search Google for WFH" from the context menu.
Re:WFH? WTF? (Score:5, Funny)
I use DuckDuckGo you insensitive clod!
Bait (Score:5, Insightful)
This is really just a story for everyone to vent about how they are tired of Zoom and such. Who expected these things to stay as high as they were when we were in the middle of a once in a century pandemic? These services will still be used greatly if not just at record numbers. Am I supposed to feel bad for their stock numbers? Who cares?
What will be more interesting is to see how air travel shakes out over the next few years. While we can predict there will be a huge boom in personal travel as people break out to take vacations again how many businesses have realized they don't necessarily have to travel as much for sales and business meetings. For my own company pre-pandemic it was multi-monthly trips to potential clients to get "face time" and do pitches. If even 25% of those trips never take place because everyone involved is perfectly happy doing it remotely now that is air fare dollars year-over-year that may never be coming back.
Re: (Score:2)
Well lets hope it's a "once in a century" thing. Considering how this one was handled, I'm not sure we could take another one.
Re:Bait (Score:5, Insightful)
Well lets hope it's a "once in a century" thing. Considering how this one was handled, I'm not sure we could take another one.
Well let's hope the political experiment the US enacted four years ago is also a once in a century thing. Hopefully it would take that long for voters to start thinking "what's the worst that could happen" again.
Re: (Score:3)
Good luck with that! Most of them doubled down for another 4 and just barely missed getting it.
Re:Bait (Score:5, Interesting)
What will be more interesting is to see how air travel shakes out over the next few years.
Agreed. Air travel, commercial real estate, and dining/shopping surrounding corporate offices are the areas I am most curious about. All have a strong possibility of never truly returning to normal, and I wonder what even 10-20% drops in value / revenue could do in such a short time frame. I would eat out 2-3 times a week at my office, and even when I return to the office part time (which is likely permanent) that number will be cut in half. I can easily imagine a third to half of the dining options I used to visit going out of business, since there isn't much residential traffic in the same area.
Although on the flip side I live in a suburb where almost everyone commuted, and the dining options within 5 minutes of my house are horrible. Seeing growth in dining options near residential areas would be very welcomed.
Re: (Score:2)
Supply chain consolidation/decentralization will be more important to watch, and that will have a huge impact on air travel. Sales calls always seem to go better in person; you get the opportunity to connect with the individuals better, and you get cues about what is really important to the customer.
I know the vendors we work with will need to push to re-establish relevance and uniqueness.
Re:Bait (Score:4, Interesting)
The airlines will be devestated. Business travel has generally been the core that paid for everything. Holiday travelers are more like icing on a cake - once you've done the hard part, the extra passengers just pay for a little more.
Holiday travelers are cheap - they're constantly looking for the best price and best deals and package deals that constantly eat away at margin. Business travelers need flexibility and last minute bookings so pay dearly for it.
Business travel thus pays all the bills, and leftover seats, since the airline's flight cost are more or less the same whether it's half full or full, are just bonus money.
But a lot of business travel wasn't strictly necessary - people freely sent people around the world willy-nilly. There's going to be sales calls, and one thing that is still true now is that face time for sales is extremely important. So a company sending sales people around the world will be the first business travel that happens.
But a customer might want more information on a product - in the past, this might involve them flying to a company and meeting up - perhaps as a customer they're too small to divert a salesperson, but they want to have a face to face anyways (or the customer really wanted to travel and have expenses paid, probably the largest reason). However, it's likely this travel will not happen as often - customers will prefer to conference in - if they're not big enough for the vendor to send a salesperson over, then they can video conference and the vendor has to take the effort to make it work.
It's not all bad - customers too small to travel or be traveled to now have an option to deal with a vendor - usually a lot of them are blown off - you're too small for us to bother, and you're not willing to come here? - but if Zoom is already there, it's now an option for both sides.
There will still be technical flights - where a technical person will get on a flight to meet with vendor or client to solve a technical issue, but instead of hopping on a plane being the first thing considered, people will video conference and try to come up with a solution as much as possible. This means if it results in travel, it will be over quicker and perhaps smaller groups of people need to come since a lot can be done over video conference - even the entourage can stay and work with the on site engineer. So there will be a drop here.
Perhaps the biggest loss will be conferences. While generally networking events, a lot of other things happen. It'll be good for technical events where attendees participate and network, but the big flashy sales conferences like MWC or CES or even E3 might get scaled down - no longer the massive junket trips they once were because do keynotes really have to be attended in person? For networking yes, but if you want to see the next generation product, well, recorded and watched at your convenience will likely win the day.
Usage Doesn't Matter (Score:5, Insightful)
Zoom doesn't really care how much usage they're getting, at least not directly. What matters is how much subscription revenue they're getting. Companies may be bringing people back into the office, but you can be sure they're keeping their paid Zoom accounts as long as they still have some remote workers or are concerned about switching back to remote work. From a corporate perspective, Zoom is cheap and useful, so they should continue to grow. And with less frequent actual use, they won't have to invest as much in new infrastructure. Win-win all around.
On the consumer side, Zoom will see a decline in paid accounts, as consumers will be quicker to drop expenses if they're not being actively used. Those accounts were never Zoom's business plan, but they have been a significant part of their 2020 revenue, so that is at risk.
Re: (Score:1)
Even as companies re-open I wouldn't expect to see a return full force.
There are too many people who don't live near the office anymore. I was talking with someone a few weeks ago and they had moved to Idaho. It's going to be hard to get them to come back to the office.
I'm actually more productive when I don't spend two hours a day driving, but I don't want to be in the home office 5 days a week either.
People have adapted so it's going to be higher usage then previous, but at the same time it will level off
Fucking idiots (Score:1)
Re:Fucking idiots (Score:4, Funny)
If you are using Zoom, Teams, or Slack as a verb...
Good point,
I'll just Google what cannon is currently capable of such a feat. I envision shooting all of earth's garbage directly into the sun would save a ton of money and solve a lot of earth's problems! Nothing bad could happen right?
-Yo Grark
Re: (Score:2)
If you are using Zoom, Teams, or Slack as a verb meaning IM, you should be shot out of a cannon into the sun.
They use Zoom as a verb to describe virtual meetings, not instant messaging. These tools also provide chat features, but it isn't what I have heard the verb Zoom used for.
Re: (Score:2)
user exodus...yea...no (Score:1)
The company I work for in Australia has been using Zoom Australia wide for all our user conferences interstate since about 2016.
Zoom is heavily tied into all our conference rooms, and our meeting system, to the point we can effectively book a meeting room via outlook, automatically setup the accompanying zoom meeting all staff can join.
zero effort.
all 2020 did for us was expand meeting from a few staff members to 30 or 40, and prove our infrastructure can handle the traffic.
users
Re: (Score:2)
In aggregate, Zoom became a larger part of a lot of companies, so they had a lot of sudden growth in 2020 that will almost certainly retreat.
It also lit a fire under the market in general. Notably Teams became a higher investment priority with Microsoft in 2020, so Zoom faces a more well resourced competitor in the market.
So as the pandemic subsides, they will face some companies cancelling their Zoom relationship, either because virtual meetings don't matter so much, or because the Office365 subscription t
Hmm (Score:2)
World reopens? I haven't seen that happen in California. That means either it's false or people in the world outside of California don't live here.
If Google copies Zoom features, they're in trouble (Score:3)
I'm a teacher and so I've had to use it every school day for the last year or so. We were hybrid for a while (first half of the alphabet attended on A days, second half on B days). I have a lot of of issues with Zoom that have nothing to do with fatigue. I think we went with Zoom because the security features were better (and they seemed to learn quickly, while there were problems in March 2020, most were resolved by April 2020). I use Linux (mostly Fedora, sometimes Debian/Ubuntu) and while there are RPM/DEB installers for Zoom they do not allow auto-updating through the package manager (like other proprietary software I have to use on Linux) nor do they alert you when your version is out of date. This was a big problem in the beginning because there were a couple of moments where having the wrong version meant you couldn't connect.
I also think the experience on Linux is worse than on Windows (I use Windows at work, and Linux at home). I experience a lot more freezing and other video/audio problems on Linux. I think you'll see Google Meet copy a lot of the essential functionality (mainly the security features) and then Zoom is going to get hit hard. Many schools already have a relationship with Google (hosting email, Google Classroom, etc.). I am no fan of Google but because Chromebooks run on Linux, Google browser applications typically work well on Chrome/Chromium running on Linux. I can't say the same for Zoom or Teams (which also has the same installers available but no auto-updates/update notifications issues).
Many teachers already had experience with Google Meet, and many of us kept using Google Meet for some purposes (online office hours are an example). So moving away from Zoom towards Meet is not an issue. While universities are using Teams if they have a strong Microsoft relationship, I haven't heard about Teams being used in K-12. If Google can figure out how to enhance Meet, they will probably beat Zoom (especially because schools had to pay for Zoom this year, unlike last year when it was free).
World Reopens (Score:2)
News just in from Dictionary Corner (Score:1)
Also, it turns out, idiot is now a noun! Who knew?!