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China Government

US Intelligence Concludes: China Didn't Weaponize COVID-19, Didn't Have Foreknowledge (dni.gov) 162

The head of America's Intelligence Community reports that the U.S. intelligence community "was able to reach broad agreement" on several key issues about the origins of COVID-19.

"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon," they announced today.

In addition, the U.S. intelligence community report includes a second new assessment: that China's officials "did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged."

Beyond that, they note that most of the intelligence community's agencies also specifically assess that SARS-CoV-2 "probably was not genetically engineered" (albeit with "low confidence"). Of the 19 member agencies in the U.S. intelligence community, just two believed that there just wasn't enough evidence to actually issue an assessment of either possibility, the report adds.

The [U.S.] intelligence community judges they will be unable to provide a more definitive explanation for the origin of COVID-19 unless new information allows them to determine the specific pathway for initial natural contact with an animal or to determine that a laboratory in Wuhan was handling SARS-CoV-2 or a close progenitor virus before COVID-19 emerged. The intelligence community — and the global scientific community — lacks clinical samples or a complete understanding of epidemiological data from the earliest COVID-19 cases. If we obtain information on the earliest cases that identified a location of interest or occupational exposure, it may alter our evaluation of hypotheses.

China's cooperation most likely would be needed to reach a conclusive assessment of the origins of COVID-19. Beijing, however, continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information, and blame other countries, including the United States. These actions reflect, in part, China's government's own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China.

In assessing whether a lab incident or a "natural" exposure to an infected animal caused the outbreak, they cited assessments from eight different U.S. intelligence community elements. Half of them agreed with the National Intelligence Council assessment (with low confidence) "that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus — a virus that probably would be more than 99 percent similar to SARS-CoV-2. These analysts give weight to China's officials' lack of foreknowledge, the numerous vectors for natural exposure, and other factors."

Three of the remaining four "remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information, with some analysts favoring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely." One element did assess "with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology... Variations in analytic views largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications and intelligence and scientific gaps."

The 18-page assessment includes an appendix addressing details of specific theories, but ultimately concludes that "Our growing understanding of the similarities of SARS-CoV-2 to other coronaviruses in nature and the ability of betacoronaviruses — the genus to which SARS-CoV-2 belongs — to naturally recombine suggests SARS-CoV-2 was not genetically engineered." It even notes that the much-discussed furin cleavage sites "have been identified in naturally occurring coronaviruses in the same genetic location [as in SARS-CoV-2]. This suggests that SARS-CoV-2 or a progenitor virus could have acquired its furin cleavage sites through natural recombination with another virus."
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US Intelligence Concludes: China Didn't Weaponize COVID-19, Didn't Have Foreknowledge

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  • Yeah, but (Score:2, Funny)

    by marcle ( 1575627 )

    I knew a guy who knew a guy who posted on Facebook that it's all a conspiracy and China is trying to kill us all. I've seen some secret information that proves it.

    • The pillow fucker will be releasing detailed information any day now.
    • by fermion ( 181285 )
      I donâ(TM)t know why people became so obsessed with the China conspiracy. This was not just the domain of the wingnuts. There were mainstream actors claiming this was credible. When we found that COVID was showing up in samples in Italy and elsewhere back in December before the pandemic widely hit, there was talk about suspicious flu cases back in November in China. Every time evidence pointed away from China, new evidence was created to point back to China

      What I found strange is the evidence was way

      • The Italy evidence actually goes back to October, even September 2019.

        Does not change however the idea that it originated in China/Wuhan.

        Point is simply: neither people in Italy (they where treated for many strange things, e.g. simple skin irritations) nor in China, were actually aware what was going on.

        Pointing fingers at one who is trying to do his best, and exclaiming "we expect better from you", is extremely low level human behaviour. If you know better: teach him. If you don't: shut up.

        • If covid was spreading widely in Italy in September 2019, then why does *every sars-cov-2 virus ever sequenced* fit perfectly into a single tree, rooted in the Wuhan ancestral strain, with the genetic diversity going to zero (i.e. the spillover event occurring) sometime in November 2019?
          • Re:Yeah, but (Score:4, Interesting)

            by AleRunner ( 4556245 ) on Saturday October 30, 2021 @02:26AM (#61941053)

            If covid was spreading widely in Italy in September 2019, then why does *every sars-cov-2 virus ever sequenced* fit perfectly into a single tree, rooted in the Wuhan ancestral strain, with the genetic diversity going to zero (i.e. the spillover event occurring) sometime in November 2019?

            Going back in time to September evidence exists of infection but is very dubious. None of the samples have been reliably sequenced and the papers about them don't seem to have survived peer review so they may be false positives. I don't think you can rely on any data points before November or maybe even December.

            Having said that, however, the SARS-COV-2 of even January 2020 was much less fit than the one we have now. I saw someone estimate that there was only a 15% chance that it would even continue on to be a pandemic. It may be that only one infection chain in Wuhan survived out of several that existed so the November zero genetic diversity event might not be the spillover, just the point that it almost died out before it started seriously spreading.

            • Going back in time to September evidence exists of infection but is very dubious.
              It is absolutely not dubios.

              When it became clear that COVID infections can cause skin irritations, the Italian health system analyzed all old blood samples of people who came with "undeclare able skin irritations" to doctors.

              The oldest results that show COVID infections are from September/October.

              I don't think you can rely on any data points before November or maybe even December.
              That is nonsense. The Italians have the habit t

          • If covid was spreading widely in Italy in September 2019
            It was not spreading widely. The findings about COVID around that time are mostly from conserved sewage water, which was analyzed for COVID half or even a full year later.

            then why does *every sars-cov-2 virus ever sequenced* fit perfectly into a single tree, rooted in the Wuhan
            Because Wuhan is a famous tourist attraction for Spanish an Italian tourists.

            We have 2021 now. You should know the last part. Or how do you think the virus came to Europe? By i

      • by Anonymous Coward

        I don't know why people became so obsessed with the China conspiracy.

        Could it have something to do with the so-called "leader of the free world" repeatedly referring to it as the "China virus"?

    • The fucked up thing about this situation, is that there's about a 50% chance you're dead serious.
      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        I detect clear mockery in that posting and a command of language that indicates a level of sophistication way above what an average covid denier can manage. Of course, it may be a covid denier reposting a mocking statement without understanding it....

        Layers within layers. Human stupidity is a fascinatingly complex thing.

    • by shanen ( 462549 )

      Yeah, Funny, but with overtones of suicidal stupidity.

      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        I think it was very well done. Good satire has to hurt and yes, it often birders on what a really, really stupid person could thing was a fact.

        • by shanen ( 462549 )

          Yeah, but the entire Covid-19 topic is so deep into madness that it all fits into that rule whose name I still can't recall. The rule has to do with parody that can't be distinguished from reality that can't be distinguished from some weird blend of fantasy and insanity.

          Ah, I got it by searching with that sentence. It's Poe's Law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Haha! I can do one better! I know a guy that knows a guy that has seen a guy reading what a guy did write.... aehm....
      Were was I going with that again? Never mind.

  • Everyone will read what they want to read. One political ideology will latch on 99% similarity statement and another on association of outbreak with Wuhan Institute of Virology.

    Why even bother writing a report like that?
    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 ) on Friday October 29, 2021 @09:10PM (#61940579)

      Because it's not a political report. It's a evaluation of the known facts, including estimates of uncertainty. It's written for adults.

      One of the key lines is this:

      Beijing, however, continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information, and blame other countries, including the United States. These actions reflect, in part, China's government's own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China.

      Once someone with a pulpit decided to make the whole thing a political club any chance of a cooperative investigation was lost. Any country would have responded similarly. These stupid political games not only have stupid prizes, they have dangerous ones too.

      • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

        by gizmo2199 ( 458329 )

        Do you really think that if a country was responsible for a pandemic that killed millions of people, it would make them more (or less) likely to cooperate with any investigation?

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          Less. And by giving that country a independent reason not to cooperate you destroy any real or imagined value of that particular circumstantial reasoning.

      • by physicsphairy ( 720718 ) on Saturday October 30, 2021 @02:33AM (#61941061)

        Once someone with a pulpit decided to make the whole thing a political club any chance of a cooperative investigation was lost. Any country would have responded similarly. These stupid political games not only have stupid prizes, they have dangerous ones too.

        China was *already* hiding the outbreak before the rest of world even knew SARS-CoV-2 existed, so the idea that somehow they were planning on being perfect little transparent angels and then big bad Westerners forced them to start shredding documents through their mean implications is ridiculous.

        As is the idea that "any country" would have "responded similarly." China's on quite a short list for countries that would arrest their own doctors reporting a new pathogen. You have to be a real totalitarian craphole for that to be true. For that that matter even China itself was far more open and allowed WHO investigation of the previous SARS-CoV-1 outbreak.

        These stupid political games not only have stupid prizes, they have dangerous ones too.

        What's dangerous is apologizing for a regime that has, at very minimum, been such a bad actor as to cost the world the chance of squashing a devastating global outbreak in its infancy - if its recklessness didn't start it in the first place - and drawing moral equivalency to their behavior with other nations. Especially when more broadly that same country is guilty of, e.g., actively rounding up its citizens into concentration camps and carrying out a campaign of ethnic cleansing. China is not "just another country doing what normal countries do." You can ask pretty much any of its neighbors.

        • by mark-t ( 151149 )

          China was *already* hiding the outbreak before the rest of world even knew SARS-CoV-2 existed

          If you look at what was going in China at the time,you might understand their reasons for doing so. Remember, this was a novel coronavirus, never seen in humans prior to this, and if this new virus had been something that actually did not spread very easily (at the time, they were not even initially sure that human-to-human transmission was possible), then warning the world early about it would have created unneces

      • by tomhath ( 637240 )
        FTFA:

        "We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon," they announced today.

        That doesn't rule out Gain of Function research, which is the most likely source of the virus. The Chinese were probably not actively developing a weapon, but it's very likely that they were developing the technology which could be used to create a weaponized virus.

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          This is exactly what the OP as talking about. It also doesn't "rule out" that the observations of phosphene on Venus were real and the aliens that produced them travelled to Earth and accidentally infected us with their version of gonorrhoea, which happens to become airborne in our atmosphere.

      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        Because it's not a political report. It's a evaluation of the known facts, including estimates of uncertainty. It's written for adults.

        Sadly, "adults" in this sense are a minority in the human race. We have far too many children in adult bodies, that have just enough education to be dangerous.

        So fact: The US intelligence community thinks it is highly unlikely there was any attempt to make COVID a bioweapon and, in particular, Chinese leadership had no knowledge of any such activities. (Incidentally, COVID is unusable as a bioweapon. Not lethal enough and there are other problems with it.)

        Fantasy the morons immediately come up with: "It is

    • They're clearly stating at the evidence shows that it's unlikely to be a bioweapon. And you can bet your ass given that we are currently trying to start a cold war with China that they would very much like it to be a bio weapon.
      • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

        The opposite. Those that want to start a Cold War, by definition do not want to start a hot one.

        Deployment of one of the aspects of NBC triad on global scale is a declaration of a hot war.

      • by sinij ( 911942 )

        They're clearly stating at the evidence shows that it's unlikely to be a bioweapon.

        If your ideology wasn't blinding you to broader perspective, you would realize that stating that COVID19 was not intentionally designed to be a bio-weapon is not the same thing as stating that it was not accidentally released from the lab that was experimenting on it.

  • Ok ... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Freischutz ( 4776131 ) on Friday October 29, 2021 @08:43PM (#61940519)

    US Intelligence Concludes: China Didn't Weaponize COVID-19, Didn't Have Foreknowledge

    This will bring out the tinfoil hat brigade in full strength.

  • Fact is that the covid virus is no different than other coronaviruses. No two viruses are exactly the same. Bitching about the furin cleavage site, which also btw exists in some other coronaviruses is like saying a lion is genetically engineered because it has a mane. It is called evolution you fools, obviously each species has some features to distinguish it from other species or they would be the called same species. If the covid virus was engineered it was lame and amateur. An engineered virus would have

    • Bitching about the furin cleavage site, which also btw exists in some other coronaviruses

      Does it?

      • Yes, it does. Though none directly related (that have been found)
        This is the principle piece of evidence for SARS-CoV-2 having been a satan-baby born via a recombination event in some animal somewhere rather than the product of several quadrillion generations of evolutionary gain-of-function testing.
        • This is the principle piece of evidence for SARS-CoV-2 having been a satan-baby born via a recombination event in some animal somewhere rather than the product of several quadrillion generations of evolutionary gain-of-function testing.

          I have tried to look into this, but my gene editing skills/knowledge are far too weak for me to come to any reasonable estimation of how likely this is to happen naturally. I would need to put a lot of effort in to gain that skill.

          • That's a legitimately hard thing to estimate.
            But the evidence of it having happened is there:
            SARS-CoV-2 had large distinct proteins from its closest known relatives. But those proteins are not themselves novel, only the combination of them is. They're highly unlikely to have evolved through natural mutation.
            Viruses undergo what is called recombination. 2 coronaviruses enter a cell. A novel one comes out.
            Like most hybrids, these are more likely to produce non-viable virions than viable ones, but when you
            • by gweihir ( 88907 )

              Pretty good argument. Of course the deniers and that delusional will not be able to even begin to understand the idea.

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Indeed. One of the convincing arguments (not the only one by far) that this thing was not engineered. But the morons desperately want their fantasies about how the world works to be true. They alro desperately want to think they are not morons (which prevents them from fixing that problem). So they ignore any and all facts that disagree with their fantasies and proclaim to have truth when they have nothing.

  • by wakeboarder ( 2695839 ) on Friday October 29, 2021 @09:43PM (#61940659)

    They would have had a better vaccine than sinovac and not released it into their own soil.

    • Maybe. Or maybe they thought it would kill mostly old people and they've got too many of those anyway.

      Clearly a segment of the Chinese leadership is happy to kill people off, especially if they're inconvenient. Just ask any out-group in China.

      • Clearly a segment of the Chinese leadership is happy to kill people off, especially if they're inconvenient. Just ask any out-group in China.

        The out-group are complaining about the in-group. You don't say...

      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        Maybe. Or maybe they thought it would kill mostly old people and they've got too many of those anyway.

        Highly unlikely. They would actually have tested this and seen that it comes with high hospitalizations across all age groups and that it does not reliably kill the old. The numbers are just to bad for this being deliberate, no matter what the aim was. COVID is all over the place in its effects and long-COVID is a thing for people of every age, including children.

  • No s*** Sherlock (Score:4, Informative)

    by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Friday October 29, 2021 @09:58PM (#61940685)
    Viruses are absolutely terrible bio-weapons. They mutate so rapidly that they're just as likely to come around and bite you in the ass and that is well understood. That's why they haven't been used as a bio-weapon since days of America giving smallpox laden blankets to Indians.

    Furthermore when you edit the gene sequences viruses first it leaves telltale marks. Trying to make a edited virus is a lot like trying to forge the Mona Lisa with a Star NX-1000 Rainbow dot matrix printer. Doesn't take much for you to tell what's been done.

    Finally as if all that wasn't stupid enough genetically engineered viruses often lose the traits you went to so much trouble engineering in. Even if those traits would ordinarily increase the likelihood of virus spreading.

    The conspiracy theories around the virus being man-made and or a bio weapon have always been about one thing: deflection. The previous administration wants to blame China in a way that makes it easier to shift blame and for that you need individuals to blame and not systems. China for their part doesn't want to have to change the systems that led to the virus coming into being. Specifically they don't want to have to stop there policy of deforestation or to tightly regulate their wet markets. Both of those things are essential to China's rural economy.
    • Viruses are absolutely terrible bio-weapons. They mutate so rapidly that they're just as likely to come around and bite you in the ass and that is well understood. That's why they haven't been used as a bio-weapon since days of America giving smallpox laden blankets to Indians.

      FWIW the Japanese used them in WW2.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

      World war two. Imperial Japan deployed bioweapons, including viruses on a large scale.

      Also your narrative about small pox blankets as a bio weapon back then required people to actually understand virology before even epidemiology was invented, and there's exactly one single account of this happening. And it wasn't in the case that the historian who made this falsehood a popular meme reported it in.

      It's also worth remembering for that false narrative that before epidemiology was invented and solidified as a

    • I think the real goal with the US trying to blame China is a bit more obvious. Our economy is dependent on year over year compounding growth. With wages and living standards rising in China much faster than American capitalists anticipating, there is no where else comparable, with comparably skilled and cheap labor. So growth in the US is going to slow, the price of survival goods are going to go up, and wages are going to rise again. Individually each of those things is a crisis for US capitalism, together
    • by dimko ( 1166489 )
      "That's why they haven't been used as a bio-weapon since days of America giving smallpox laden blankets to Indians" - so you do agree humans have history of using stuff like that since dawn of time? :D "it leaves telltale marks" - no it doesn't. First, how do you know Chinese did not fuck up BEFORE gene splicing? Also, HOW do you know they did not just use technology we have been using for millennia, known as artificial selection?(farmers were growing bigger crops in hope that bigger seeds will yield bette
  • by The Evil Atheist ( 2484676 ) on Saturday October 30, 2021 @01:06AM (#61940981)
    Thank fuck for all the Slashdot nerds who will be able to make a different assessment based on their feelings and not on any understanding of biology.
  • There are people who already know this and people who refuse to believe this. More data is not needed. We already know. We need to get the people to stop being racist dillholes.

  • My favorite parts of the report were the tables. This thought makes my day: one day not long ago, someone in one of the national agencies called out across a work table "does anyone have a small icon of a bat that does not have glowing Halloween eyes?". And "what about a pangolin?". If I were a screenplay writer, my opening sequence would have a lab mouse escape and find its way unnoticed into a lab worker's overcoat pocket. They are resourceful and fast-moving little devils. I would next follow Hollywoo
  • Ran across a good article the other day on how implausible any sort of lab leak theory is - including the idea that it was a naturally-occurring virus being studied in a lab which may have escaped from there:

    https://undark.org/2021/10/28/... [undark.org]

  • Here are a group of actual virologists discussing previous papers on the virus' origin. None of them supports a lab origin or anything other than transmission from animals, just like the SARS 2003 and MERS epidemics.

    This Week in Virology 798 [microbe.tv] (first hour only) discusses the Biden preliminary report on virus origins, the WHO committee members urging to complete the investigation, and a paper on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 in the journal "Cell".

    This Week in Virology 809 [microbe.tv] (first 40 minutes) discusses the Laotian b

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      What, actual facts stated by experts? These _must_ be lies! Better ignore them completely!

      • by kbahey ( 102895 )

        Yeah, isn't it sad to see what society has come to?
        It is all about picking whichever 'side' they are on, or whatever appeals to one's prejudice, even if it is completely against science and facts ...

        • by gweihir ( 88907 )

          Yeah, isn't it sad to see what society has come to?
          It is all about picking whichever 'side' they are on, or whatever appeals to one's prejudice, even if it is completely against science and facts ...

          Indeed. Fanatics all around.

"An idealist is one who, on noticing that a rose smells better than a cabbage, concludes that it will also make better soup." - H.L. Mencken

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