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The Military

Ukraine Has Destroyed Nearly 10% of Russia's Tanks, Making Experts Ask: Are Tanks Over? (businessinsider.com) 429

In three weeks of fighting, Russia has lost at least 270 tanks, according to the open source weapons tracking site Oryx -- almost 10% of its estimated active force. From a report: Ukraine's defense is proving so effective, in fact, that many analysts are attributing the failure of Russia's offense not only to its commanders, or to its tanks, but to the very idea of the tank itself, as a front-line weapon platform that can gain ground. The emerging evidence of tanks' tactical weakness is "striking," as one expert put it, and it has opened up a debate about whether tanks might be on their way to joining chariots and mounted cavalry in the boneyard of military history.

Cheap, low-flying drones are striking tanks from above. Soldiers are using charred suburban landscape to ambush tanks with a new generation of fire-and-forget weapons that makes tank-killing unsettlingly simple, even in the hands of a volunteer. "An infantry that is determined to fight is now super-empowered by having things like a huge number of point-and-shoot disposable anti-tank rockets," Edward Luttwak, a military strategist who consults for governments around the world, told Insider. Tanks have ruled land warfare for more than 80 years. It's their job to punch through enemy positions so infantry can flood in and hold the newly gained ground. Tanks have long been susceptible to soldier-carried weapons like bazookas and recoilless rifles, as well as improvised explosives such as the anti-tank "sticky bombs" seen in the film "Saving Private Ryan."

But looking at the ineffectiveness of Russian tank attacks in Ukraine, one can see how technology -- particularly advances in high explosives and guided missiles -- is further tipping the odds to favor anti-tank defenders, to the point where tanks could arguably be rendered obsolete. One defense analyst who spoke with Insider compared the role of tanks to that of the Swiss pikemen, Renaissance-era fighters armed with pikes and halberd who once were an army's frontlines. This vanguard role, held then by foot soldiers and now by tanks, will likely shift to drones, robotic vehicles, and long-range strike systems. "Tanks are going to move, over time, into more of a mopping-up role," said Paul Scharre, a former US Army Ranger and a director of studies at the Center for a New American Security.

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Ukraine Has Destroyed Nearly 10% of Russia's Tanks, Making Experts Ask: Are Tanks Over?

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  • Answer: No, but. (Score:4, Insightful)

    by He Who Has No Name ( 768306 ) on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @04:29PM (#62384013)

    No, but they are if you use them as stupidly as Russia is doing.
    Tanks that are unsupported by competent infantry when fighting in infantry-friendly battle environments are going to get eaten alive.
    Used more intelligently they are still very effective mobile weapons.

    We'll probably see a lot of new effort and resources poured into active defense systems to defend against ATGMs, though. That will become the technological arms race in armor combat.

    • Some modern tanks already have anti-missile defense systems.

      The real answer is that you need effective combined arms operations. If your infantry and tanks are not working together effectively, then you will take horrible losses to an opponent who does use them effectively.

    • We'll probably see a lot of new effort and resources poured into active defense systems to defend against ATGMs, though. That will become the technological arms race in armor combat.

      Well, sure. Just add some sentient AI, make them 20x larger, mount some Hellbores, ablative armor and tonnes of point-defense weaponry and they'll be perfectly ready to heroically sacrifice themselves time and time again after inevitable human betrayal.

      I, for one, welcome our incoming Bolo overlords.

    • by Grog6 ( 85859 )

      One interesting thing that came out of this is that reactive armor is not a good thing if you have your support infantry close at hand; I saw a missile hit a tank, and completely take out the infantry.
      Sucks to be them.

    • > Tanks that are unsupported by competent infantry when fighting in infantry-friendly battle environments are going to get eaten alive.

      Are you proposing to have a 5km radius around each tank completely saturated with infantry, so that ATGM operators have no place to shoot from? If you could capture 80 sqkm without the tank, you probably dont need the tank.

      I dont know exactly what you think infantry can do. Perhaps you dont seem to realize we arent talking enemy infantry coating tanks in molotovs, attachi

      • That is not at all what we're talking. Ukraine is not having success with 5+ km range man portable ATGM's. They have success with AT4's and NLAW's. Their drones are tiny and cheap, and while fairly high up, are also easy to detect and take out. That Russian forces fail to counter these very simple platforms is a sign of lack of co-ordination and training. Modern infantry has tools to combat all of these threats.

    • No, but they are if you use them as stupidly as Russia is doing. Tanks that are unsupported by competent infantry when fighting in infantry-friendly battle environments are going to get eaten alive. Used more intelligently they are still very effective mobile weapons. We'll probably see a lot of new effort and resources poured into active defense systems to defend against ATGMs, though. That will become the technological arms race in armor combat.

      Anti-aircraft armored vehicles will get updated. Maybe replace the array of heavy MG, or missiles, with something like a Phalanx CIWS. With a miniaturized "Phalanx" each tank could get one.

      There is really nothing new here. Its just the never ending back and forth of armor and anti-armor. But yeah, there is one constant. Infantry and armor must work together.

  • The wars of the future will not be fought on the battlefield or at sea. They will be fought in space, or possibly on top of a very tall mountain. In either case, most of the actual fighting will be done by small robots. And as you go forth today remember always your duty is clear: To build and maintain those robots.
  • More poor editing - you missed a chance to use the word "decaimate" in its literal sense.
    • I think the usage is actually consistent with the ancient meaning in this case. From Wikipedia [wikipedia.org]

      Decimation (Latin: decimatio; decem = "ten") was a form of Roman military discipline in which every tenth man in a group was executed by members of his cohort. The discipline was used by senior commanders in the Roman Army to punish units or large groups guilty of capital offences, such as cowardice, mutiny, desertion, and insubordination, and for pacification of rebellious legions. The word decimation is derived from Latin meaning "removal of a tenth".

      I could be wrong though. I've always been a little confused since "decimation" in signal processing usually involves eliminating a large, rather than small, fraction of the data.

      • I think the usage is actually consistent with the ancient meaning in this case. From Wikipedia [wikipedia.org]

        Decimation (Latin: decimatio; decem = "ten") was a form of Roman military discipline in which every tenth man in a group was executed by members of his cohort. The discipline was used by senior commanders in the Roman Army to punish units or large groups guilty of capital offences, such as cowardice, mutiny, desertion, and insubordination, and for pacification of rebellious legions. The word decimation is derived from Latin meaning "removal of a tenth".

        I could be wrong though. I've always been a little confused since "decimation" in signal processing usually involves eliminating a large, rather than small, fraction of the data.

        That is the common use of the term is all except historic contexts. Which is what makes it funny when you can use it in the historically accurate sense, that doesn't match what people think it means.

      • The quote is not 100% correct.

        It was not a 10th per se. The offending unit had to stand in a single row. The commander walked the row until he found one he could not stand. From this one up to the end of the row, every 10th was executed.

        Obviously he could pick the first soldier as first victim. Then it is obviously every tenth who dies.

        • Interesting, so the order of that row would probably have been a kind of voting on the people the unit felt were most likely to be eliminated.
  • by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @04:37PM (#62384049) Journal

    Ever since the battle of Cambrai where tanks were first used, it became obvious that if tanks are not effectively supported by infantry, they will be destroyed. At Cambrai the tanks weren't fighting against drones, they were fighting against mortars, but it's the same principle.

    Effective combined arms operations are essential to modern warfare (and actually to ancient warfare). The tanks need to operate with infantry.

    • Ever since the battle of Cambrai where tanks were first used, it became obvious that if tanks are not effectively supported by infantry, they will be destroyed. At Cambrai the tanks weren't fighting against drones, they were fighting against mortars, but it's the same principle.

      Effective combined arms operations are essential to modern warfare (and actually to ancient warfare). The tanks need to operate with infantry.

      Russian military ineptitude certainly comes into play, but it's not clear how much help infantry would be against drones or a javelin fired from a kilometer away.

      I think the issue here is the arms race. Russian tanks don't have the hardware to either locate or neutralize the threats posed by modern anti-tank weapons.

      • Russian tanks don't have the hardware to either locate or neutralize the threats posed by modern anti-tank weapons.
        I think the same. There are plenty of modern fire and forget weapons that under the right circumstances can simply be fired into the rough direction of a tank. They pick up targets automatically - talk to each other so they do not pick the same, they fly in high arched hyperbolas, so they usually are not that vulnerable to active armour.

        A friend of mine served in a "heavy infantry" - anti tank

      • Russian military ineptitude certainly comes into play, but it's not clear how much help infantry would be against drones or a javelin fired from a kilometer away.

        This threat is similar to the threat of a mortar team. The advantage of the drones/javelines is precision.

        In the current conflict, one approach is for the infantry to spread out and clear the land around the column of thanks and supply chains so the javelin/mortar teams can't get close enough to cause damage.

        • Russian military ineptitude certainly comes into play, but it's not clear how much help infantry would be against drones or a javelin fired from a kilometer away.

          This threat is similar to the threat of a mortar team. The advantage of the drones/javelines is precision.

          In the current conflict, one approach is for the infantry to spread out and clear the land around the column of thanks and supply chains so the javelin/mortar teams can't get close enough to cause damage.

          If the tank needs that much of a buffer what military role is it serving?

          • If the tank needs that much of a buffer what military role is it serving?

            Destroying enemy infantry. It's like rock/paper/scissors.

            Small guerilla groups > Tanks > Infantry > Small guerilla groups

            It's more complicated than that (air is really great) but that's the general idea.

      • > Russian military ineptitude certainly comes into play, but it's not clear how much help infantry would be against drones or a javelin fired from a kilometer away.

        Accuracy and opportunity to hit drop off drastically at longer ranges. Furthermore, the single file line that Russia is using is just asking to get slaughtered by Javelins and their ilk.

        The critical thing about the javelins isn't the javelins per se, it is the TEAMS that are getting away with firing a single missile at incredibly close range a

    • Ever since the battle of Cambrai where tanks were first used

      A quick trip over to Wikipedia and the article on Cambrai shows that it was NOT the first use of tanks.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      And air.

  • "No".

    They remain useful as portable mixtures of armor and artillery together.

  • Defective Equipment? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Retired Chemist ( 5039029 ) on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @04:40PM (#62384059)
    Russian tanks are supposed to be protected against these kinds of attacks. They are supposed to have reactive and composite armor that is proof against these weapons. Apparently, they either don't actually have it or it does not work. Probably someone stole the money for it and sent those poor kids out to die with defective weapons. Russia has a conscript army so they probably think that they can just call up more troops. That works until the revolution, of course. The last Russian revolution started with an army mutiny, maybe we can hope for another.
    • by Ksevio ( 865461 )

      They're designed to protect against hits from the sides, hits from ground forces and other tanks, but the tops are more vulnerable. The weapons Ukraine has been using (drones and javelins) target the tank from above where they're weaker.

    • Whenever you make a countermeasure, your opponent makes one in return. The Javelin has 2 warheads: the first explodes and removes the reactive armor. Then the second comes in and destroys the tank.
    • Composite armour only works very limited. It is more an aim to make the armour lighter than tougher. Keep in mind, a bazooka or similar weapon explodes in front of the target, and shots a very hot stream of burning/melting metals against the armour. It basically smelts its way inside.

      Active armour only works: once. After it exploded and deflected the incoming shell/missile, it is gone. And I would assume a sniper shot or at least a good aimed machine gun salvo will destroy it, too.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      There just isn't any practical armour that can be fitted to a tank that will protect from these modern weapons.

      It reminds me of the switch from full plate armour to combat fatigues. Once new weapons arrived on the battlefield suddenly mobility was all important and armour didn't work anymore.

    • It's a mix of conscripts and "contractors" who signed up (allegedly) voluntarily. Plenty of details at https://www.csis.org/blogs/pos... [csis.org]

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      Javelin missiles have a "precursor warhead" which detonates the reactive armor, allowing the main warhead to penetrate the tank hull. NLAWs are just big enough to penetrate the top armor of a tank even if it has reactive armor.

      All that said, according to some reports the "reactive armor" on some abandoned Russian vehicles turned out to be dummy cardboard units that are used in training. This squares with reports that many Russian soldiers were told they were going on a training exercise.

      The Russians evid

  • "An infantry that is determined to fight is now super-empowered by having things like a huge number of point-and-shoot disposable anti-tank rockets, If they can get access to them"

    FTFY

    Only reason the Ukraine has managed to do this is because they had access to modern anti-tank weapons.

    Some Banana republic without the resources to interest an arms supplying supporter like the USA, Russia, China, or have the money to buy them from said suppliers wouldn't stand a chance against modern tanks.

  • This is nothing new, A tank is a support vehicle now that is only 100% effective with complete aerial domination and preferably against enemies that don't have modern weapons. Still incredibly dangerous, but just like a battleship they are also big hulking targets that are easily destroyed with the right equipment.
  • Imperial Japanese Navy aircraft carriers Akagi, Kaga and Soryu were sunk in the space of 5 minutes, by dive bombers. Thus ending the reign of battleships as the main naval weapons.

    Well, this Ukraine invasion might prove to be the decisive end of tanks as the mainstay of terrestrial weapon.

    But in both cases, heavy strongly armored vehicles were destroyed by extraordinarily nimble lightly armored attackers. Light aluminum carrier aircraft or plastic drones against steel.

  • by rickb928 ( 945187 ) on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @05:18PM (#62384193) Homepage Journal

    The Cold War scenarios most often discussed were European theater armor advances. In this environment tanks were necessary to gain territory, but as the 70s became the 80s technology caught them. TOW Missiles, Apache choppers, and the A-10 in particular gave NATO weapons to defeat Russian tank advances, often with little risk. Air superiority was required in this strategy, since Apaches and A-10s were easy targets for a variety of Soviet fighters. Hind choppers etc. were the Soviet response to NATO armor, along with shoulder-launched missiles.

    As time progressed, better everything resulted in battle planning using standoff and fire-and-forget ATW, infantry designators allowing troops to 'call in' air-to-ground weapons and close air support, and it was assumed armor had limited usefulness and short life on these battlefields. In the Middle East, a very different set of strategies developed, even in the 60s, and it showed. Still, air superiority yielded the benefit of being able to cover your armor and kill theirs by several methods.

    With the end of the Cold War all changed. No serious Russian threat meant new battle plans. And now, with technology taking leaps, we have new anti-armor options. Drones attack easily from above, and most armor around the world is assumed to be vulnerable from above. Also, drones are really hard to target still, and hard to compromise with EW. Asymmetric, an armed drone might cost not much more than a high-end anti-tank missile and give better kill ratios, so that's a big win against armor, and 'armor' includes personnel carriers and mounted artillery. If nothing else, we are learning a lot about modern armored warfare, and at someone else's expense for once.

    In all this the M1A2 is considered the most capable and tough tank on the battlefield, Israeli armor notwithstanding. How would it fare in similar circumstances? I doubt any Abrams driver wants to fight without air cover and troops on the perimeter, no matter how tough they think their tank is.

    Compromising command and control is still useful, if it does nothing but confuse C&C and deprive your armor of fuel in a timely manner. And I still wait to read some useful information on how Russian equipment is operating - are they well maintained, troops trained, because if not no strategy saves them.

    But I'm pretty sure we will see Russian forces in Ukraine move in stages, not because of losses but to manage the advance. And it's not apparent yet that Putin is willing to destroy Ukraine just to claim it for Russia. So we wait and see...

  • I saw an article today in which the U.S. military is indicating up 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded, captured or missing. That's 20% of the entire force arrayed against Ukraine. Reports have been coming in of Russian troops getting frostbite because they don't have the proper clothes, while other troops are searching for Ukrainian ammo to shoot each other with so they can get off the battlefield.

    With more javelins, NLAWS, panzerfausts, AT-4s and all the other AT weapons pouring in to help U

  • I am far from sufficiently informed, but a thought that comes to my mind is this whole thing is to large degree an exercise on Russia's part to see what needs fixing in the army for some other action.

  • Tanks have never been invincible and there have always been infantry solutions to them, but there has never been such a mass of tanks with such an under-motivated force going up against such a well-supplied and highly-motivated force.

    This is a failure of an entire military, not a failure of a technology.

  • ... is easier than preventing stuff from being blown up. From the World Trade Center towers to Russian tanks, attackers have a significant advantage. It's almost like a law of nature. Returning materials to a disorganized state is easier than preserving them. As an engineer, I can tell you it's much easier to destroy something than it is to create it, or even to keep it from being destroyed. It's almost like the things we construct want to move into a state of higher entropy. High explosives are a cheap and

  • Modern missiles are all point and forget, these slow or non-moving targets are dead in the water.
    Or on land.

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