In Detroit, the Motor City, Chip Shortage Has Left the City Eerily Short of Cars (washingtonpost.com) 79
Even Motor City is running short of cars these days. Rental counters at the Detroit airport have run out of vehicles recently. Dealerships all over town are reporting scarce inventory. And buyers are facing months-long delays and soaring prices before they can get their hands on a new truck or SUV. From a report: The root problem is the same across the country -- a global deficit of computer chips that has forced automakers to slash output, causing shortages of new and used vehicles. But the predicament feels particularly offensive here, Detroiters say. "This is an auto manufacturing city. It shouldn't be short of cars," said Benyam Tesfasion, a cabdriver who has been busy shuttling travelers from the airport to pick up rental cars at locations 10 or 20 miles away. Another feature of his daily travels, he says, is driving past giant parking lots where automakers are stockpiling newly manufactured cars that are still awaiting a few final chips.
Detroit's experience shows how thoroughly the nearly two-year-old semiconductor shortage has upended manufacturing -- and foisted change on one of America's most beloved consumer markets. "It may be the biggest disruption we've seen since the 1970s and the fuel crisis," said Matt Anderson, a transportation historian at the Henry Ford museum complex in Dearborn, referring to the tumultuous period that forced car companies to make more fuel-efficient vehicles. The chip shortage "is the kind of thing that my successors I'm sure will be studying about in future years," he added.
Detroit's experience shows how thoroughly the nearly two-year-old semiconductor shortage has upended manufacturing -- and foisted change on one of America's most beloved consumer markets. "It may be the biggest disruption we've seen since the 1970s and the fuel crisis," said Matt Anderson, a transportation historian at the Henry Ford museum complex in Dearborn, referring to the tumultuous period that forced car companies to make more fuel-efficient vehicles. The chip shortage "is the kind of thing that my successors I'm sure will be studying about in future years," he added.
So, Here Did The Old Cars Go? (Score:2)
This sort of nonsensical story just annoys me.
There's a chip shortage, so fewer new cars, but the old cars are still there as well as a smaller number of new cars. So how is the city eerily "short"(I read as devoid) of cars?
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And there's about to be an explosion in repossessions as people can't pay the ridiculous car loans they took out over the past couple years. The used car market is about to have a surplus.
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Bingo. You know why you see so many Dodge Chargers and Challengers recently? If you have a pulse then Dodge will give you an 84 month loan for a muscle car.
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Re: So, Here Did The Old Cars Go? (Score:2)
They are also derived from 20 year old DaimlerChrysler IP. Chargers and Challengers print money for Stellantis because they havenâ(TM)t required any serious engineering for years.
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people can't pay the ridiculous car loans they took out over the past couple years
to pay for the dealer's inflated markups [markups.org].
I will not buy a car now or in the future from any dealer appearing on that list, and recommend that nobody do. At some point they will come back begging for us to buy a car at bottom price because nobody is buying. Fuck the dealers.
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they also got 7mpg on leaded gas and made 196Hp out of a 7ltr
Re:So, Here Did The Old Cars Go? (Score:5, Informative)
Detroit has the lowest household income of any of the 25 largest US cities by a *significant* margin. Michigan also has one of the highest insurance costs of any state. Pre-pandemic, the average Detroit household was spending around 29% of its income on their car. That means that cars were already a serious economic burden for many Detroit drivers.
Now raise the cost of used cars and of gasoline, and it's very plausible there would be noticeably fewer cars on the street in Detroit. The cars that *would* have been there haven't disappeared; they're either not being used as much to save money, or have been sold to a buyer who lives somewhere richer.
If only it were possible... (Score:4, Interesting)
to manufacture a car/truck without computer chips.
Re:If only it were possible... (Score:4, Interesting)
If only it were possible to operate car/truck without a HUD or built in navi system.
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It's not possible, because backup cameras are now mandatory. You are going to get a screen whether you want one or not.
To say nothing of ABS and stability control, airbag controllers, OBDII interfaces...
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If only it were possible to operate a car/truck without backup cameras, ABS, stability control, airbag control, OBDII.
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You can operate one all you want. Try selling a new car without those features, and see how that goes for you.
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If only it were possible to operate a car/truck without backup cameras, ABS, stability control, airbag control, OBDII.
I've been following your comments and you make completely valid points all the way. A 1950s truck wasn't made with chips, and we can do it again.
The problem isn't that it can't be done. The problem is (and this freaking happens with almost every unpredictable recession because of so many "moving parts" in it - pardon pun, please) that as soon as they have designed the vehicle and made the modifications to have it accept 21st century gasoline, safety, etc. Tested, re-tested. Good to go. Mass production
Virtually Impossible (Score:4, Insightful)
With today's legal requirements for things like ABS, airbags, backup cameras, and so much more, it is virtually impossible to make car without computer chips.
I can't be 100% sure that it is completely impossible, so I say virtually. I suppose that there is some remote, though very impractical and improbable, mechanical engineering that would allow the production of all the legally required features purely through mechanical means. But, even a mechanical computation device, like a Babbage difference machine, would not satisfy the requirements for response times of just a handful of milliseconds.
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With today's legal requirements for things like ABS, airbags, backup cameras, and so much more, it is virtually impossible to make car without computer chips.
I can't be 100% sure that it is completely impossible, so I say virtually. I suppose that there is some remote, though very impractical and improbable, mechanical engineering that would allow the production of all the legally required features purely through mechanical means. But, even a mechanical computation device, like a Babbage difference machine, would not satisfy the requirements for response times of just a handful of milliseconds.
Of course, we need to discuss if having any modern features is desirable in a vehicle. I could buy a 1948 Pickup truck, and with my home shop, I could keep it going for the rest of my life.
I wouldn't do that as anything other than a hobby. It isn't likely that a modern car could be produced without any electronics. Computer chips make the devices small, and energy efficient. I rather like my backup camera and anti collision radar. It gets a little annoying when I put on my turn signals, and it barks at m
Re:Virtually Impossible (Score:4, Informative)
The main problem will be meeting emissions standards and consumer expectations for fuel efficiency and performance. After ECUs began to control every aspect of engines, engine bays become noticeably simpler again and performance and efficiency skyrocketed. A modern family sedan will beat a 60s muscle car in a drag race while consuming less than 1/3 the fuel and burning that fuel much more cleanly.
My second car was a 1976 Ford; that was the first year the full requirements of the Clean Air Act of 1970 came into force, but the engine did not have an ECU yet. Ford's stopgap solution to getting their old engines to meet the new requirements without a computer was to turn those old engines into analog computers. There were vacuum ports and actuators all over the place, and literally dozens of tiny PVC straws connecting them. If you changed an air filter or a spark plug, a couple of the straws would fall off an you'd have no idea where to put them. And in the end it didn't work all that well; the car was noticeably more sluggish than the same model from the previous year.
If you built a car without an ECU, it would be slower, dirtier, or less fuel efficient, pick all three. It's not even that ECUs are all that complicated. Modern ECUs use decades-old levels of technology; they're roughly similar to the CPUs from a mid 1990s laptop. There's plenty of much more sophisticated CPUs for cell phones and computers in the supply chain, but there is not a lot of spare bandwidth for this less glamorous older stuff, which sells in large volumes but at low margins.
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It's a shame that there's no consideration for the enormous, "invisible" costs of what it takes for this technology and inventory to appear on a Radio Shack shelf. Everyone oohs and aahs over the car's efficiency and pollution output, but no one pays attention to the environmental impact it took to make that modern car, how it's less repairable by the average mechanic, nor what to do with the boat-load of electronics after the car became too expensive t
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to manufacture a car/truck without computer chips.
What's more, if a person is afraid of any modern accessories, there are pre-1955 vehicles that will serve the purpose.
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One that passes all current safety and environmental standards?
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As if I need airbags, I know how to drive!
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Well they can have their exploding gasbags, I don't care!
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Fucking sold!
Seriously, it's better than some DRM-riddled radio that doesn't even allow you to play what you want without an effin' internet connection.
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Impossible with current emission regulations. You can build a carburetor car that would pass California emission tests?
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Impossible with current emission regulations. You can build a carburetor car that would pass California emission tests?
California requires all vehicles to undergo a smog inspection EXCEPT:
Gasoline-powered vehicles model year 1975 and older.
https://www.dmv.org/ca-califor... [dmv.org]
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Re: If only it were possible... (Score:3)
IIRC abs was implemented on hydraulic brakes with a purely mechanical system. Aircraft at first, but some vehicles later. it worked by using a little flywheel ( if the wheel locked up, the little flywheel would suddenly be rotating much faster than the wheel and this difference was used to release the hydraulic pressure until the wheel caught up with the flywheel).
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Except that for decades now, even the most low level basic functions of the car have been cheaper and easier to implement using computer chips than whatever electromechanical monstrosity might have been used in the 1940's. Its not so easy to just go back, especially for a relatively short term supply problem.
More part sourcing flexibility would certainly help in the near term, like Tesla's managed to do, but eventually that's going to end in a game of whack-a-mole with all the remaining untapped sources of
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Maybe it's time to remove most of those "features" from the required equipment list. The only one I have any use for is airbags... the rest I either intentionally disable (ABS) as it's caused me more problems than it's saved me from, or ignore (backup cameras) because it's almost worthless (I can see better using my mirrors, and usually the camera is dirty/fogged up/distorted by rain to the point it's not usable anyway).
Airbags would be trivial to implement by basic electro-mechanical means rather than com
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I love the "I can stop better without ABS" crowd. No, you can't, and if you are that talented you're probably a professional race driver. To dispel a few myths. Yes, you can steer while the ABS system is operating. If your tires are skidding then your brakes are currently useless.
Airbag sensors are mechanical in nature. The computer measures the output and decides to fire the airbag if the impact is big enough.
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I do have professional driver training (rally driving, specifically, along with commercial vehicle), and it has been proven time and again (and is even documented in the user manuals that come with cars) that cars stop better (in a shorter distance) without ABS in certain conditions (most notably snowy/icy conditions). The entire role of ABS is to make it so a driver can steer while braking; it has little to nothing to do with stopping in a shorter distance. If a driver is driving correctly there should b
Re: If only it were possible... (Score:2)
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Re:If only it were possible... (Score:5, Informative)
It is, you can buy old cars and old engines and put it all together.
About 95% of people would straight up hate it though, especially as a daily driver car you rely on. Electronic Fuel Injection alone is worth the price of chips, it is better in just about every way over a carbeurated system. Combine that with an electronic ignition system instead of a mechanical distributor and that's why cars today no longer require "tune ups" every few thousand miles. I also apprecaite my car operating within spec no matter the temperature or conditions outside.
Cars also used to break down all the time in the old days, there's huge survivorship bias. When you see an old car still running we don't see the millions of others than ended up in the scrap heap for one reason or another. Nevermind how much of a death trap they were.
They don't make them like they used to for a lot of good reasons.
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I hated breaker points. Even with a distributer electronic ignition was a huge improvement. Fuel injection is fine, but less of a gain over carburetors than getting rid of the points.
ABS is over rated. I didn't get a vehicle that had it until 2013. Didn't go in the ditch before, didn't after, but I did learn to drive in Wisconsin, so there is a I'm used to ice on the road factor. And I keep decent tires on the car.
Junkyard Digs on Youtube is a fine review of the joys of ancient vehicles including convincing
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Problem is just in time delivery on global scale (Score:2)
to manufacture a car/truck without computer chips.
So you want to suspend mileage and emissions regulations?
BTW, the problem is not using chips. Its a global just in time (JIT) supply chain where you maintain no inventory, no buffer, you time deliveries to match production needs. This saves money, inventory has a cost, it works great when supplier production, supplier shipping, everything really is entirely predictable. Ooop, supplier shut down to covid. Oops, ports close due to labor unrest. The JIT system collapses.
Domestic manufacture can reduce so
the real problem is... (Score:2)
Re:the real problem is... (Score:5, Insightful)
They never will either. There are actual engineering reasons for preferring older nodes and every solution you can think of that might enable using whatever node you think they should be using is more expensive and, therefore, DOA.
The failure isn't that they aren't using 2 nm for everything. The failure is that they failed to secure supply of devices they've built into every subassembly of their products. It's a business management failure, not a technical failure.
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They never will either. There are actual engineering reasons for preferring older nodes and every solution you can think of that might enable using whatever node you think they should be using is more expensive and, therefore, DOA.
The failure isn't that they aren't using 2 nm for everything. The failure is that they failed to secure supply of devices they've built into every subassembly of their products. It's a business management failure, not a technical failure.
Not sure if it still happens, but I was told one of the large costs for avionics systems is the need to procure enough of the same chips to equip every expected aircraft to be produced, and to have a sufficient supply for maintenance for the next 20-40 years. Can't imagine the cost of doing that for an unknown number of cars.
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Can't imagine the cost of doing that for an unknown number of cars.
I can. You manage your company properly; limit the variety of devices so your engineers and bean counters are constrained to optimize around a finite set, then negotiate contracts to secure long term supply of these components to get good prices. If you want to get really crazy you form a consortium between companies increase negotiating leverage and increase the appeal to suppliers, like Ford and GM do for light vehicle transmissions; a precedent set by now long retired corporate leaders.
Unfortunately
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Can't imagine the cost of doing that for an unknown number of cars.
I can. You manage your company properly; limit the variety of devices so your engineers and bean counters are constrained to optimize around a finite set, then negotiate contracts to secure long term supply of these components to get good prices. If you want to get really crazy you form a consortium between companies increase negotiating leverage and increase the appeal to suppliers, like Ford and GM do for light vehicle transmissions; a precedent set by now long retired corporate leaders.
Unfortunately that sort of thinking requires another component that is in short supply: leadership that has a clue about, or any actual interest in, what they are suppose to be leading.
Yeah, I should state that as, I can't imagine doing that in an environment that can ramp up and down production based on the current economy and the whims of the management.
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exactly.
once you start ordering 2 or 3 months worth of ICs management will berate you for having valuable shareholder value sitting on the shelf.
I can't wait to see which people in upper management lose their jobs over this...
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exactly.
once you start ordering 2 or 3 months worth of ICs management will berate you for having valuable shareholder value sitting on the shelf.
I can't wait to see which people in upper management lose their jobs over this...
Lose their jobs? I expect they will get a large promotion... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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You aren't involved in the supply shortage are you?
There are simply no chips to supply, no matter what agreement you thought you secured.
I work for a medium sized company in the robotics field, and our product requires a few thousand bits of electronics to build. Every few weeks we get a call from one of our suppliers saying
"Sorry, we've been supplying you chips for 5+ years, but we have run out. We will send more when we have them in a few months"
Yes, we could try sue or something. But we don't have the bu
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You aren't involved in the supply shortage are you?
I am. Can't think of anything I said that indicated I'm not.
"Sorry, we've been supplying you chips for 5+ years, but we have run out. We will send more when we have them in a few months"
You're not involved in automotive manufacturing, are you? We have here manufacturers that have festooned every subassembly of their products with semiconductors. Yet, somehow, they had few or no contractual agreements with suppliers to ensure supply. They could have. Were they competently led they would have. But they didn't. They're just like you; buying lots (as in batches, not "many") of devices and taking for granted that someone will al
Re: the real problem is... (Score:2)
Which chips specifically? Too specific a question? What class of chip? Which manufacturer?
The problem I have with every chip shortage post is that nobody gives specifics.
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The problem I have with every chip shortage post is that nobody gives specifics.
Another point that demonstrates your ignorance regarding this topic is the expectation that people will be eagerly forthcoming about the hardware and designs they're involved with.
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That's because you're not going to use an Intel Core i7 to run the engine timing mechanisms.
Pretty much everything in the embedded electronics space is built on trailing-edge process nodes, which is where the big crunch is. Even the latest and greatest brand new products in this space are still built using a much larger feature size than what a modern desktop CPU would use.
Self inflicted (Score:5, Insightful)
"Detroit" farmed out a critical component to a byzantine JIT supply chain and let their bean counters sample from a smorgasbord of overly specific SKUs, half of which vanished the moment the system experienced a little stress. Nothing to study here; employ some grownups to whip the children into line. Given the relatively primitive fab nodes these manufacturers deal in there is absolutely no reason they couldn't have been manufacturing their own silicon devices in a cost effective manner or at least secured supply through contracts, except that they're all run by cowardly, shortsighted c-suite seat warmers.
Re:Self inflicted (Score:5, Informative)
"Detroit" farmed out a critical component to a byzantine JIT supply chain and let their bean counters sample from a smorgasbord of overly specific SKUs, half of which vanished the moment the system experienced a little stress. Nothing to study here; employ some grownups to whip the children into line. Given the relatively primitive fab nodes these manufacturers deal in there is absolutely no reason they couldn't have been manufacturing their own silicon devices in a cost effective manner or at least secured supply through contracts, except that they're all run by cowardly, shortsighted c-suite seat warmers.
it's much worse than that. i've posted on this before. you have to understand the semiconductor manufacturing process. automotive grade is unique:
1) the cost pressure is much higher
2) the speed of components (max clock rate) is far lower. even 16 mhz is 16x faster than actually needed
3) the current and voltage is 100 to 1,000 times greater than those used by ICs used in the average consumer product. 50V and 10A to drive a Fuel injector.
4) the usage conditions are unbelievably hostile: sustained ambient temperatures of 110C are normal and the EMI would fry a consumer-grade IC in seconds.
therefore it is not only laughable to expect to use consumer-grade 45nm Foundry geometries or lower, it is just flat-out stupid. in 3D printing terms it would be like using a 0.2mm nozzle to 3D print a 10ft x 30ft x 5ft object: stupid.
it should therefore come as no surprise to learn that automotive grade ICs are typically manuactured in 250 nm. no consumer-grade IC goes anywhere near this dumb-sounding geometry. it should also come as no surprise that the layer stack is also completely different.
only a handful of Foundries in the world have - had - the capability to manufacture 250 nm. the masks (made of glass, stored at the Foundry) were not allowed out of the Foundry, even though they were paid for by the IC designer. they wouldn't fit a competitor's Foundry anyway.
and then shit happened. orders stopped.
now, one crucial aspect of Foundry equipment is: you can't ever stop. you cannot let it cool down. if a Foundry has no orders, which they hate, they run blank wafers to keep the equipment up to temperature.
what do you think happened when 40-year-old equipment suddenly received no orders for 18 months?
they scrapped it, didn't they?
all these morons had to do was keep on ordering parts, even just a trickle. except, i don't know if you're aware of "Factoring"? letters of credit? with all the big car manufacturers ceasing orders, all the Factoring also ceased. so none of the suppliers could guarantee that they would be paid, so of course they stopped manufacturing.
bottom line is: it is the cessation of credit facilities (Letters of Credit) from the AAA+ rated companies like Ford, GM, Chrysler, that is actually the underlying cause of the collapse. the rest is just consequences.
Detroit is only the motor city in name? (Score:3)
Most of the big auto-makers have long since moved their HQs out of Detroit. That's the main reason its economy collapsed.
It's meaningless to mention them in an article like this, as though we should be especially surprised they have a shortage of new cars and car rental companies are reporting shortages. This is happening across the board, and for car rental agencies anyway? It happened because they decided to sell off large portions of their fleets during COVID (not much traveling going on, so didn't make sense to keep all of the vehicles). Now they're struggling to put the fleet back together again at a time when chip shortages mean they can't readily get all the vehicles they'd like to order.
They are learning (Score:5, Informative)
Computer chips have a finite lifetime.
Once upon a time, if you bought say, a transceiver, you could expect to keep it and fix it just about forever. I recently bought a 1960's Heathkit twins transceiver. I restored it, some new parts, some old stock. Should be good for another 60 years.
But modern electronics are hella higher performing. I have a Flex 6600 transceiver that runs circles around the old Heathkits.
And there is a price to pay for that. Those chips are often custom made, and have a production lifetime. I understand that 10 years from now, if I have a failure in my Flex, I'm probably SOL.
Back to the auto makers. Having used some chips that they have found to be reliable and functional, they like to re-use them in newer configurations. Unfortunately, that doesn't work in the modern world for anything. At some point, sales drop off until the automakers might be the only ones buying them.
So the chipmakers are in a small quandary - do they tie up a production line for a now unprofitable Integrated circuit? The number of chips for all of an auto manufacturers uses aren't likely to produce much profit.
There are only a couple ways around this. For auto manufacturers to buy up absolutely immense numbers of whatever chips they want to use - maybe a projected 50 year projection. This of course does make for a few limitations on new features.
Another possibility is to do what the rest of us have figured out. If an old chip is being discontinued (they are supposed to notify us of that) then do a new design with other and current integrated circuits.
Buying up all the "used" cars years ago (Score:1)
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> Now all of the old cars that didn't have all of the computer chips
I don't know how old a vehicle you think the Cash-for-Clunkers program was targeting, but anything made after ~1980 would have had at least an ECU and electronic ignition.
And for 2009, pretty much nobody would have been trading in 30+ year old vehicles.. the people that own vehicles that old tend to own them because they're old, not because they can't afford anything else.
=Smidge=
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Old news, but still true (Score:2)
I thought Detroit was Rock City (Score:2)
WHICH chips? (Score:2)
It would be nice if even one of these "chip shortage cripples auto (or whatever) industry" stories would mention WHICH chips have gone missing.
There are no doubt quantities of the chips in question lying about, which, if the owners knew they were in demand, might just appear on the market.
It could also lead to drop-in solutions (such as blasting a small FPGA into a functional replacement for an impossible-to-find chip or set of them).
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Why is it in their best interests to specify which chips to the media at large?
No car company is buying bulk chip quantities from individual owners, nor are they soliciting home brew solutions. Companies putting chips in cars need their providence to be impeccable.
Re: WHICH chips? (Score:2)
The point is that the term chip shortage is fearmongering. It is journalistic clickbait. It is a vague generalized threat which has been used often but never justified. It is a convenient boogeyman for literally anything and everything that has failed to have been produced in enough numbers to meet demand.
I am NOT saying that there is no such thing as some chips being in short supply. But just because some chips are in short supply does NOT mean ALL chips are in short supply. The term chip shortage is used
Re:WHICH chips? (Score:4, Insightful)
No manufacturer is going to buy chips from a source which does not maintain an impeccable chain-of-custody for these chips, which basically rules out most conceivable stores from which to purchase.
Not just Detroit, although I get why there... (Score:2)
I was at a Toyota dealership a couple of months ago, idly considering moving to a different style of vehicle. On the lot, there was... nothing. Inside, nothing as well. Just salespeople taking preorders. It was eerie - those lots are huge.
I get a text every six weeks or so from the dealership where I bought my current care in 2019, asking if I would like to sell it. They are desperate for cash flow.
Re: Not just Detroit, although I get why there... (Score:2)
Which car dealership? Where? I drive by literally dozens of car dealerships every day and not a single one has âoeno carsâ in the lot.
I know why (Score:2)
Detroit (Score:1)
Detroit WAS an auto manufacturing city. Now "American" cars are made all over the US, and "Japanese" cars are made all over the US, and not Detroit.