Software Fees To Make Up 10% of John Deere's Revenues By 2030 (theregister.com) 48
An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Register: US farm machinery giant John Deere has estimated software fees will make up 10 percent of the company's revenues by the end of the decade. Chief executive John May offered the projection in a Wall Street Journal report on how Deere has plowed billions into developing self-driving tractors and crop sprayers that can tell the difference between weeds and produce. Though farmers are already struggling with operating costs -- including fertilizer and fuel -- Deere wants to sell software subscriptions for operating its ever smarter vehicles.
Bernstein analysts estimate that the average gross margin for farming software is 85 percent, compared with 25 percent for equipment sales. All Deere's tractors and harvesters have an autopilot feature included as standard following decades of ushering farmers into more technology-driven agriculture. However, the company now plans to have 1.5 million machines and half a billion acres of land connected to the John Deere Operations Center within a matter of years. This cloud service "will collect and store crop data, including millions of images of weeds that can be targeted by herbicide." Deere also acquired California startup Bear Flag Robotics for $250 million last year to turn old tractors into autonomous vehicles through software. For a company that has the heavy machinery market cornered, the shift is unlikely to be popular with farmers. The report goes on to note that a number of farm and repair advocacy groups have filed a complaint with the FTC, "claiming that Deere has unlawfully refused to provide the software and technical data necessary to repair its machinery in violation of the Sherman Act and statutes covering unfair and deceptive trade practices."
Bernstein analysts estimate that the average gross margin for farming software is 85 percent, compared with 25 percent for equipment sales. All Deere's tractors and harvesters have an autopilot feature included as standard following decades of ushering farmers into more technology-driven agriculture. However, the company now plans to have 1.5 million machines and half a billion acres of land connected to the John Deere Operations Center within a matter of years. This cloud service "will collect and store crop data, including millions of images of weeds that can be targeted by herbicide." Deere also acquired California startup Bear Flag Robotics for $250 million last year to turn old tractors into autonomous vehicles through software. For a company that has the heavy machinery market cornered, the shift is unlikely to be popular with farmers. The report goes on to note that a number of farm and repair advocacy groups have filed a complaint with the FTC, "claiming that Deere has unlawfully refused to provide the software and technical data necessary to repair its machinery in violation of the Sherman Act and statutes covering unfair and deceptive trade practices."
The Apple of farm equipment (Score:3)
I think the title speaks for itself.
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Next thing you know features that farmers used to depend on will be locked behind a paywall, or a DLC.
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Easy, I just won't purchase any John Deere equipment just like I don't purchase any Apple products.
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John Deere doesn't care. They have huge customers with large agricultural operations that want this tech and pay the license and maintenance costs without complaint. It pays for itself many times over in saved costs.
Fine. Let them limit themselves to million-dollar customers then. Not everyone needs to drive a farm Ferrari. The green thing growing out of the ground sure as hell doesn't care.
And when their competition can sell the same green thing growing out of the ground for 30% less due to lower operating costs, we'll see how quickly the customer responds to farmer Gucci Von Stupidprice.
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Doesn't it? Individually targeting weeds and not crops for herbicides sounds like something that green growing things would care tremendously about.
However, I wouldn't mind some regulation requiring them to sell functions as a feature for a one-time payment instead of a never-ending recurring subscription cost. Unless it is something that actually requires work on JD's part like updating maps or hosting a server for some reason.
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Doesn't it? Individually targeting weeds and not crops for herbicides sounds like something that green growing things would care tremendously about.
Yeah, except for the fact that the green thing exists to be fed to us meatsacks.
And speaking of spraying our food, we were dumb enough to trust DDT in the past (like doctors promoting cigarettes "for health"). Can't believe we're still dumb enough to believe the replacement is harmless. Don't worry though. After much harm and death, a class action might give you 3 dollars and a pack of organic seeds in exchange for that life-altering diagnosis in the future.
Ah, the "future" of farming...
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If they get laser weeding [youtube.com] to the point of practicality there will be no chemicals to purchase or disperse on the crops.
No chemicals? You're thinking that the unrelenting Greed coming from groups like Monsanto, will simply dissipate in the wind? Hardly. They'll fight for government-driven mandates on chemicals, using manipulation with political donations. And they'll win.
DDT was downright harmful. That scandal alone, should have shut down the concept of spraying crops. Or at least trusting the chemical pimps. Not only are we still spraying, but we're still trusting them when they claim it's "safe" again.
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And when their competition can sell the same green thing growing out of the ground for 30% less due to lower operating costs, we'll see how quickly the customer responds to farmer Gucci Von Stupidprice.
That's all well and good, except for the part where smaller farmers are being displaced and put out of business by factory farming corporations who are only too happy to cozy up to brother parasites such as John Deere.
Farming is on its way to being an oligopoly that mostly won't care what John Deere charges as long as the machines keep working and improving yields. The costs will just be passed on to us, and we won't have a choice. Corporations just LOVE it when their customers have no choice - whether the
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Good for John Deere, I also don't care. I have many brands to choose from - this makes my life easier, one less option to care about.
Re:The Apple of farm equipment (Score:5, Insightful)
I think the title speaks for itself.
Doubt you're even close on that.
No matter how old or new your Macbook is...if it's still physically running, it still at least functions as intended.
Failure to maintain a John Deere software subscription, will likely translate into a 20-ton brick sitting in your field with a six-figure loan outstanding on it, along with a rapidly failing business.
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Doubt you're even close on that.
No matter how old or new your Macbook is...if it's still physically running, it still at least functions as intended.
Not sure I agree. Try and compile some code to target iPhone 14 using a 2009 iMac... You can't. You need the latest Xcode which needs the latest MacOS which is not supported on 2009 hardware.
Re:The Apple of farm equipment (Score:4, Interesting)
Doubt you're even close on that.
No matter how old or new your Macbook is...if it's still physically running, it still at least functions as intended.
Not sure I agree. Try and compile some code to target iPhone 14 using a 2009 iMac... You can't. You need the latest Xcode which needs the latest MacOS which is not supported on 2009 hardware.
Not sure the example is fair. Does John Deere even provide software updates for 13-year old hardware? What happens when they stop providing software updates, or are you simply obligated to subscribe for life to keep any old POS running?
My point stands. Even an old outdated Macbook is still a functional piece of hardware that can be reloaded and reused in many different ways. A piece of farm equipment infected with DRM and no support can turn into a 20-ton brick that's probably so locked down you can't even abuse it as a hanger queen.
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A regular laptop maybe, but not really macbook. As soon as the OS version it supports is abandoned, pretty much all of the software developers follow suit. This is especially the case when they abandon old architectures. 2009 in particular you can't even get a current web browser to work, you'll have to use old builds that likely have unpatched vulnerabilities. I guess you could install windows or linux on it, but then why did you buy a macbook? Contrary to popular belief, Apple hardware isn't even that goo
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I guess you could install windows or linux on it, but then why did you buy a macbook? Contrary to popular belief, Apple hardware isn't even that good, the only reason to buy one is if you really love mac os for whatever reason.
I bought an Apple Macbook for the same reasons someone else might; to serve a purpose at the time. I ran VMs to give me the best of many worlds. You could install Windows or Linux on it. Kind of my entire point with re-using old hardware that still works.
Unlike a Deere suffering from a lack of DRM support that put itself down.
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How about your Macbook?
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John Deere supports their equipment for 15 years. How about your Macbook?
Which Macbook? The one I bought yesterday, last week, or last month?
(I can afford a lot of Macbooks for the price of a John Deere.)
Re: The Apple of farm equipment (Score:2)
A 2009 iMac was never advertised as being intended to compile code for an iPhone 14.
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Did Apple advertise the date their hardware would stop getting updates or fail to run their current OS?
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How can they advertise what they don't know?
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But they do know. It's planned obsolescence. There are no compatibility or capability issues.
Re: The Apple of farm equipment (Score:3)
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Failure to maintain a John Deere software subscription, will likely translate into a 20-ton brick sitting in your field with a six-figure loan outstanding on it, along with a rapidly failing business.
This is what worries farmers the most. I knew a farmer and his brother who rebuilt a John Deere Model 'B' and a Model 'D' just after 2000. The last manufacture date for either of those tractors would have been either 1952 or 1953. At a minimum, both tractors were at least 50 years old. Once rebuilt, the brother who was still actively farming still used the D to plow and harvested his corn with the B every season until his death around 2020. It seems that the simplest way for John Deere to avoid a PR bla
The MICROS~1 of equipment (Score:2)
The very model of a predatory corporation (Score:5, Insightful)
The business side of farming is difficult and low-margin. Do we really need another middleman to suck out any remaining profit? It's only our food supply that's at stake.
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It's only our food supply that's at stake.
And I'm certain John Deere is arrogant enough to believe that your food supply is "at stake" without them too.
Great opportunity for alternative (Score:5, Interesting)
This seems like an awesome opportunity for a tractor making competitor.
It seems like the integration of software with farming is inevitable, and a good idea...
But that software, and even hardware integrated with tractors, does not have to be proprietary. I think this is a moment and place open source could shine.
Open source has not worked out well in phone or computer worlds to date, because modern computer stuff is so about miniaturization - open source just cannot compete with large companies when it comes to making really high quality compact software, and very advanced UIs I would argue (that last is more debatable).
But a tractor is a massive device already. Hardware can easily be larger to maintain modularity and reparability. Interfaces do not have to be so advanced. And farmers are I feel more willing than the average consumer to get involved in terms of fixing issues, as they have to do with farm equipment already - and have a certain level of technological savvy already that could be brought up to speed.
It just needs as a base a really good tractor that can integrate software features. If you have that, John Deere doesn't look so hot if it has a subscription and the tractor stops working if you cancel... a more reasonable approach is just to pay for something like hardware with GPS and network access built in, but the tractor would still work fine without it and there would still be technology you could bring to play that wouldn't require a subscription to work.
Re:Great opportunity for alternative (Score:5, Interesting)
The problem with agtech (and precision ag and all the other marketing word tech) is nobodys gear works well with anyone elses gear. This should be familiar to anyone whos screwed around with home automation. For some screwed up reason as soon as somebody puts a computer in a machine, nobody wants to let anyone elses toys interact.
From a scientific perspective this is *really bad*. Agriculture more than perhaps any other field really benefits from data exchange. I might be in competition with the farmer next door to me, but we both benefit from sharing data about
HOWEVER despite this there are some projects at the moment that are at least looking at this. The one I've been eyeing off lately (ironically as a solution to getting John Deeres bafflingly unfriendly API to integrate with our stuff at work) is the ADAPT suite from the AgGateway people which is a series of protocols to get agriculture gear to exchange data. Its a bit of a weird suite though and their integrations all require dot net which is...... a problem in a modern lunix environment. But its a start.
Re: Great opportunity for alternative (Score:2)
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Sure, as long as your just using linux as a big dumb host. But mono apps are hell to integrate into java stacks, or other stacks on linux.
Folks, dont write C# apps. Your newfound lack of silos will thank you.
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Thanks, really interesting... I didn't even realize there was an effort to share data like that. It does seem like data sharing would be a real boon to everyone!
You are totally right that everyone benefits by sharing data, if you have great crops and so does your neighbor, it means you both do well that year... and if everyone understands what approaches work best year to year it could have a great impact.
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You obviously have no idea how modern farming works. The things John Deere wants to collect license fees for improve crop yield, which improves profits for the farmer. There are competing farm equipment manufacturers, but oddly, American Farmers are reluctant to buy inferior products from overseas manufacturers, and a new start-up equipment manufacturer would have a hard time attracting farmers who have used John Deere equipment for years and have found it to be high-quality and reliable.
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Yeah I have to admit I have not put a lot of research into this area, my understanding comes from articles around read about John Deer technological lock-in in the past.
I can understand why people would want to buy solid equipment, which is why I predicated my thought of there being an opportunity with a tractor platform that was reliable as a base. I was thinking more it would be an existing tractor maker who maybe stepping up the game both in hardware and software. So it's not like an opportunity for ju
Re: Great opportunity for alternative (Score:2)
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I'll grant it mostly is, but I was thinking more along the lines of open source hardware, and operating systems used by the consumer - it is true in the server space open source is doing fantastically well, and in some areas like browsers.
And this is how it ends... (Score:1)
Re: And this is how it ends... (Score:2)
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So the end comes not with Skynet, but with Groundgrid, not with Terminators, but with Terra Firminators.
I weep for humanity.
BS to use the DMCA to lockout any 3rd party repair (Score:2)
BS to use the DMCA to lockout any 3rd party repair.
As they can say that we need DRM to make so that people can't use our software for free and if non dealers can get into the system then they can set the system to test mode does not need any software keys to run.
More grifters trying to steal what you bought (Score:2)
I hear John Deere's Vice President for Responsible Right to Repair has come up with a new, improved advertising slogan: "Nothing runs (up your credit card) like a Deere".
I am shocked, shocked I say... (Score:2)
Bernstein analysts estimate that the average gross margin for farming software is 85 percent, compared with 25 percent for equipment sales.
I am shocked to learn that selling copies of software has a significantly higher profit margin than selling large industrial machines
Re: I am shocked, shocked I say... (Score:2)
Why isn't there an alternative? (Score:2)
Surely if some manufacturer of tractors came out and said "we will support right to repair, provide all the software, not require ongoing payments etc" they would then get a whole bunch of farmers deciding to buy their gear instead of their competitors.
If they did it right they could make more money from increased machinery sales (and any increase in parts or repair they get as a result of those increased machinery sales) than they would loose from people going to independent repair shops instead of the man
That's great for long term brans viability (Score:2)
Damn (Score:2)
I want to drive by John Deere's HQ, roll down my window, and yell "NERD!" at the top of my lungs
Mod down this post as you see fit.