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Power Transportation

Electric Vehicles Could Match Gas-Powered Cars on Price This Year (seattletimes.com) 199

This year in America some electric cars could become "as cheap as or cheaper than cars with internal combustion engines," reports the New York Times, citing figures from the International Council on Clean Transportation, a research and advocacy group. Prices are likely to continue trending lower as Tesla, General Motors, Ford Motor and their battery suppliers ramp up new factories, reaping the cost savings that come from mass production. New electric vehicles from companies like Volkswagen, Nissan and Hyundai will add to competitive pressure.... Falling prices for materials like lithium and cobalt have also helped. The price of lithium used in batteries has fallen 20% from its peak in November, though the metal still costs more than twice as much as it did at the end of 2021. Cobalt has fallen by more than half since May, in part because carmakers are selling some models that do not require it, reducing demand. New lithium mines are beginning to produce ore, which could keep a lid on prices...

As electric-vehicle sales soar — rising 66% in the United States last year to 810,000, according to Kelley Blue Book — automakers are getting better at making them.... Auto executives say that they are finding it is easier and cheaper to design and build new electric models than gasoline-powered ones. The battery cells made by Ultium, for example, are part of a collection of components that can be mixed and matched in many types of vehicles. Carmakers have long used the same platforms in multiple models, but the strategy works even better with electric vehicles because the cars have far fewer parts than internal combustion vehicles. The Ultium platform cuts the time needed to develop a new vehicle by almost two years, Dan Nicholson, vice president of electrification at GM, said at a Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago conference in January. As a result, GM will be able to introduce three Chevrolet electric vehicles this year: the Equinox, a Silverado pickup truck and a Blazer SUV. "That's how we get the economies of scale," Nicholson said.

The article cite's legislation passed last year subsidizing battery manufacturers, which "could cut the cost of making electric vehicles by as much as $9,000," as well as the legislation's tax credits for cars priced below $55,000.

But besides making it cheaper to purchase an electric car, "the car will need less maintenance," the article points out, "and the electricity to power it will cost less than the gasoline used by its combustion engine equivalent."

Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader 140Mandak262Jamuna for sharing the article.
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Electric Vehicles Could Match Gas-Powered Cars on Price This Year

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  • More lithium enroute (Score:5, Informative)

    by rbrander ( 73222 ) on Sunday February 12, 2023 @05:51PM (#63287887) Homepage

    India just found 6.9M tonnes of the stuff. I gather the lithium for one eV runs about 10kg. So, 100 of them to the tonne, that's almost 700M electric vehicles worth. They have 80M domestically right now, so even given growth (how much can there be, with their traffic?) they'll have a lot left over.

    I was baffled by the "running out of lithium" argument last fall. Turns out to be slightly more common in the Earth's crust than lead, and lead-acid batteries need 11kg of lead. So, in resource consumption, an eV is an upgrade before you start saving on fuel.

    • most of the lithium in the crust isn't a usable ore. then there are places like in Bolivia where the ore while having impressive number as reserve is spread out over hundreds of square miles in sparse amounts. Lithium shortage is still very real possiblity.

      • The oceans contain 230 billion tonnes of lithium.

        Extraction from seawater is not cost-effective, but extraction from desalination plant effluent, which doubles salt concentration, is cost-effective.

        There is also plenty of lithium in saline lakes, such as the Dead Sea, the Great Salt Lake, and the Salton Sea.

      • most of the lithium in the crust isn't a usable ore. then there are places like in Bolivia where the ore while having impressive number as reserve is spread out over hundreds of square miles in sparse amounts. Lithium shortage is still very real possiblity.

        https://worldpopulationreview.... [worldpopul...review.com]

        Anyhow, We are not remotely constrained to lithium, so if we somehow extract all possible lithium reserves - Sodium Ion batteries and their characteristics as not surprisingly virtually identical to lithium batteries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        A little less energy density, and surprisingly safer. We're not likely to run out of that any time soon.

    • by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Sunday February 12, 2023 @07:40PM (#63288063) Journal
      Oil was struck in Pottsville PA in 1860. By 1890 it has run dry. Model T took off in 1910s. Are that time no one even had the remotest idea that b the nomadic Bedouin of Saudi Arabia were pitching tents on the largest oil field ever discovered! Who knows where the largest deposit of lithium will be discovered!
    • Sadly, EVs still have 12V lead-acid batteries in them to power all of the legacy 12V electronics, as far as I know.
      • I think the original Tesla Roadster tried to use the main battery for the accessories, but aside from that all EVs use a 12V battery (including other Tesla's).

      • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

        Sadly, EVs still have 12V lead-acid batteries in them to power all of the legacy 12V electronics, as far as I know.

        Well that's because using the big battery to power everything is really stupid. First, there's the safety aspect - high voltage running around the car adds a lot of insulation weight to the wiring. Second, powering low voltage devices from such a high voltage means you end up with needing a step down converter anyways.

        The 12V battery is instead the "main" battery used in the car - if it goes fl

      • by nbvb ( 32836 ) on Monday February 13, 2023 @10:01AM (#63289245) Journal

        Actually, Tesla at least has switched over to use a small lithium battery to run their low voltage systems. It’s been working very very well for them. Solved a myriad of issues.

    • India just found 6.9M tonnes of the stuff.

      That's great! BUT do you know how long it takes to get up a working mine?

      Turns out it's 4-7years [linkedin.com]. Maybe on the shorter end if you are willing to cut corners and pollute a lot of native land around the mine.

      The problem is the timeline for developing lithium resources (and other needed minerals, it's not just lithium) is really long and existing supplies tap out over time and are simply less productive every year... and there is global growing demand.

  • by MacMann ( 7518492 ) on Sunday February 12, 2023 @09:58PM (#63288351)

    At some point BEVs would have to catch up on price with ICEVs to compete. I just thought it would come from market forces and not government subsidies. The early adopters would be willing to pay extra to get in on the fashion of EV ownership. After that market is near saturation then the prices would have to come down to get the more practical buyer.

    What I'm hearing with people I know are people seeking plug-in hybrids of some sort. Living in the US Midwest we can get some cold and snow. This means a lot of range in an EV can be lost in cabin heating and slipping and sliding on the road. Then comes the threats of power outages that can make getting a recharge a problem. On long trips there might not be an EV charger but there would be a filling station with some gasoline, diesel fuel, propane, or whatever gets your motor running.

    One member of my family has a "light hybrid" Ford truck that runs electric only at low speeds, and then uses the electric motor to provide extra acceleration over what the ICE provides. I don't know if he plugs the truck in to charge with any regularity, it may not even be an option. Another family member has a different kind of "light hybrid" where the internal combustion engine has a gasoline tank that holds only two gallons of gas. It appears the thought it that if the battery runs low then the gasoline engine should get the car something like 50 miles more range. I'm thinking I'd want something in between. Something with enough EV in it to travel short commutes without need for the ICE, but when on a long trip the EV part lets the ICE take over for highway cruising.

    With time I expect all cars and trucks to be "hybrid" or "electrified" to some level. The ICE as we know it will fade away. After that the price difference among the different models will fade as well because they will all be slight variations on the same theme. It will be a balance of ICE engine power and fuel tank vs. the electric motor and battery.

    What's complicating this is all the complexities on government subsidies. Subsidies are not good for creating the best options. It clouds consumer choices and them being able to make informed and optimal decisions.

    People want the government out of oil subsidies? I agree. Let's have the government out of all energy subsidies. Do that and we shall see how these measure up on costs.

    • At some point BEVs would have to catch up on price with ICEVs to compete. I just thought it would come from market forces and not government subsidies.

      Let me know when ICE vehicles lose the massive subsidies on both fossil fuel security and pollution related costs being written off.

  • First, the article includes a detail that (if you're looking for it) exposes part of the fallacy. Here it is:

    "Increased competition, government incentives and falling prices for lithium and other battery materials are making electric vehicles noticeably more affordable." I boldfaced the detail that forms one part of the deception. The article is NOT talking about actual prices paid for the cars in question; it's talking about the sticker price the consumer pays directly, AFTER the government has already pa

  • the referenced URL points to the Seattle Times, but the text cites it as "New York Times"
  • It is more than likely the EV prices will match because of rising cost/pricing of new gas powered vehicles, is my guess. Unless gov't gives big rebates to buy EV's. For myself, I have a relatively new, paid off gas truck that should last me another 10-20 years before being forced to buy an EV. I also think there WILL be power grid/supply issues when loaded with EV's and availability of chargers. Both areas are behind in developing needed requirements in projected time frame. Texas is a good example of power

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