Should Automakers Feel Threatened by China's Exports of Electric Cars? (yahoo.com) 305
The Los Angeles Times reports that the U.S.-China rivalry "has a new flashpoint in the battle for technology supremacy: electric cars."
"So far, the U.S. is losing." Last year, China became the world's foremost auto exporter, according to the China Passenger Car Assn., surpassing Japan with more than 5 million sales overseas. New energy vehicles accounted for about 25% of those exports, and more than half of those were created by Chinese brands, a shift from the traditional assembly role China has played for foreign automakers. "The big growth has happened in the last three years," said Stephen Dyer, head of the Asia automotive and industrials unit at AlixPartners, a consulting firm. "With Chinese automakers making inroads for most of the market share, that's a huge challenge for foreign automakers." China's rapid expansion domestically and abroad has added fuel to a series of clashes between the U.S. and China over trade and advanced technology, as competition intensifies between the two superpowers...
One area in which Chinese automakers handily beat Western competitors is on price, thanks to government subsidies that supported the industry's initial rise as well as cheap access to critical minerals and components such as lithium-ion batteries, which account for about a third of the overall cost of production... In March, BYD cut the price of its cheapest EV model in China to less than $10,000. According to Kelley Blue Book, the average EV retail price is $55,343 in the U.S., compared with $48,247 across all vehicles... Though 27.5% tariffs have in effect locked Chinese EVs out of the U.S. market, the fear that the cheaper models could eventually undermine American automakers has started to spread. The Alliance of American Manufacturing warned in a February report that allowing Chinese EVs into the country would be an "extinction-level event" for the U.S. auto industry. The group also cited the risks of Chinese auto companies building facilities across the border in Mexico that could circumvent tariffs....
"When the global market is flooded by artificially cheap Chinese products, the viability of American and other foreign firms is put into question," [said America's Treasury Secretary in April]. The European Union has opened an investigation into government subsidies utilized by China's EV industry and whether such support violates international trade laws.
"So far, the U.S. is losing." Last year, China became the world's foremost auto exporter, according to the China Passenger Car Assn., surpassing Japan with more than 5 million sales overseas. New energy vehicles accounted for about 25% of those exports, and more than half of those were created by Chinese brands, a shift from the traditional assembly role China has played for foreign automakers. "The big growth has happened in the last three years," said Stephen Dyer, head of the Asia automotive and industrials unit at AlixPartners, a consulting firm. "With Chinese automakers making inroads for most of the market share, that's a huge challenge for foreign automakers." China's rapid expansion domestically and abroad has added fuel to a series of clashes between the U.S. and China over trade and advanced technology, as competition intensifies between the two superpowers...
One area in which Chinese automakers handily beat Western competitors is on price, thanks to government subsidies that supported the industry's initial rise as well as cheap access to critical minerals and components such as lithium-ion batteries, which account for about a third of the overall cost of production... In March, BYD cut the price of its cheapest EV model in China to less than $10,000. According to Kelley Blue Book, the average EV retail price is $55,343 in the U.S., compared with $48,247 across all vehicles... Though 27.5% tariffs have in effect locked Chinese EVs out of the U.S. market, the fear that the cheaper models could eventually undermine American automakers has started to spread. The Alliance of American Manufacturing warned in a February report that allowing Chinese EVs into the country would be an "extinction-level event" for the U.S. auto industry. The group also cited the risks of Chinese auto companies building facilities across the border in Mexico that could circumvent tariffs....
"When the global market is flooded by artificially cheap Chinese products, the viability of American and other foreign firms is put into question," [said America's Treasury Secretary in April]. The European Union has opened an investigation into government subsidies utilized by China's EV industry and whether such support violates international trade laws.
Screw the American auto industry (Score:2, Insightful)
You think the Chinese cars are subsidized to make them artificially less expensive? The US auto industry has a LONG history of spending money to fight change rather than adapt to it, then getting its ass kicked.
If the US domestic industry can't compete, I'm inclined to say it deserves to die. It certainly does not have the consumer's interests at heart, at all.
Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:4, Informative)
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The automakers won't be caught off guard this time. Watch for lobbying and smear campaigns.
Re: Screw the American auto industry (Score:2)
These guys are super arrogant. It's almost like executives know they will be OK financially, even if they run their company into the ground.
Plus government bail out loans with incredibly generous rates for unsecured debt. Maybe this time the ones running the auto companies won't bother paying back the loans and pivot their wealth some place else.
Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:4)
The automakers won't be caught off guard this time.
They were caught off guard again by Tesla.
Watch for lobbying and smear campaigns.
Those are not a substitute for quality products.
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Yep, pretty much. Although it is somewhat hard to see China as a force of progress, in this area they are.
Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:5, Insightful)
Exactly. In some states it’s illegal to even sell a new car direct to the public. Legislation designed to prop up the dealership industry. Why compete when you can legislate?
Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:4, Insightful)
If the US domestic industry can't compete, I'm inclined to say it deserves to die.
And yet... there's plenty of complaining when the good-paying jobs move overseas.
We should have learned a couple things in the recent past. Supply-chain woes post-COVID should have taught us that we should always have multiple sources for things, and ideally some of them should be domestic. Economic woes in the last decade or two should have taught us that going with the cheapest manufacturing method (offshoring) isn't in our long-term best interests.
The North American auto manufacturers are being subsidized, but we can't be 100% consumption. We have to produce something to exchange for what we want to consume.
Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:4, Informative)
Another lesson that is related to the above: cheapest in terms of currency (e.g., sticker price) is not necessarily (and is almost never in reality) the cheapest overall.
There are so many "hidden" costs that aren't reflected in the low currency price of many goods.
I mean consider all the "free" internet services... which cost us privacy and advertising bombardment...
Screw US privacy invasion (Score:2, Insightful)
US automakers are looking at electric as the next generation of your privacy invasion. It's a prospect that is putting rabbits in all their pockets. Virtually all US electric vehicles have built-in cellular data (over and above the system you pay for for yourself) that allows the auto makers to remotely log to your vehicle any any time, no matter where you are, and do almost anything. They can update your firmware, turn on or off aspects of your vehicle, see where you've gone, and control anything else.
Re:Screw US privacy invasion (Score:4, Insightful)
Virtually all US electric vehicles have built-in cellular data (over and above the system you pay for for yourself) that allows the auto makers to remotely log to your vehicle any any time, no matter where you are, and do almost anything.
I have to point out that it's more "all US vehicles", it is very much not limited to electrics. Hell, I'd argue that there are far more ICE vehicles with this level of monitoring and interference level built in the USA than electrics.
Your "how much to disable" comment? You might as well apply that to any newish car these days.
Remember, it wasn't an electric vehicle where the manufacturer tried to make heated seats a subscription.
And China will happily give your data to the TLAs.
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Roger that. I pulled a telemetry module out of my car the day I bought it. I'm not looking forward to the day they start integrating it into everything so you can't do that and still have a functioning vehicle.
Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:4, Insightful)
I do not understand, to this day, how we let Chinese products flood our western markets. If you are a western company, you *cannot* sell your products in china. You need at least a joint venture with a Chinese company to be able to do so.
Letting them sell their crap on our soil feels to me like a rape. If they don't want our stuff, fine, it's their own right. But then they should not be able to sell theirs on our countries.
We're getting fucked like never before. And we all watch it as if it's normal.
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There are other more welcoming places to build our stuff, if it comes down to that.
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People buy whatever is cheapest. That’s why the market is flooded.
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And the Chinese government offers large tax breaks to both consumers and manufacturers of EV.
58% of all new electric cars sold today are Chinese.
Re: Screw the American auto industry (Score:3)
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Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:5, Informative)
Have you had even a cursory look at China's infrastructure projects? Two thirds of the entire world's high speed rail lines, with the project only starting in the mid 2000s. They are now upgrading some parts to maglev at 600 kph.
Same thing with metro systems and other light rail. Then you get to roads...
For all it's faults, China is undeniably the leader in infrastructure projects. No other country comes close. And I say that not as a fan, but as a warning that we need to get our shit together if we want to compete. China built all that high speed rail in the time the UK was talking about maybe doing one short line and then cancelling most of it.
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Considering that the US seems to be obsessed with only providing us electric SUV's and trucks that cost over $60,000, I think that they should be VERY afraid of Chinese competition. If BYD can build a $25,000 EV with a 250 mile range, they should be able to do so as well. They just won't WANT to.
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> It certainly does not have the consumer's interests at heart, at all.
I wouldn't be too sure that Chinese manufacturers have the US consumers interest at heart either. They want your money, that's for sure. Politically they want you to be dependent on THEM, that's for sure, but I'm not sure they give two hoots if you're happy or not.
I'm also not too sure we can trust Chinese QA. They're in the same era as Japan was in like the 80s (when we used to say "Jap Crap"). Let's be honest, how many chinese devis
Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:4, Insightful)
The US auto industry competes just fine at building what Americans want to drive. The challenge comes in switching over to building what the American government wants Americans to drive. They are far from the same thing.
$70k trucks with beds smaller than a the same model from 30 years ago and $100k SUVs with the all styling of a brick. https://www.caranddriver.com/j... [caranddriver.com]
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I'd never buy such a thing but for reasons I don't understand they are very popular and sell at a huge profit.
The traditional 4 door sedan otoh is passing from American auto history bit by bit, year by year.
I see those trucks and suvs all over the place being driven by people who clearly would be better off in a 4 door but fuck if I know why they buy the trucks and big suvs. My BIL has a big truck he spent 100k on and then another 30k or so having it customized with big tires, jacked up, blah blah blah. H
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There's a few reasons but one side effect I've read about is that we are in a vehicle size arms race. People liked "being above the road" and Americans have always held "big car = safe" and so if you have a family and other people are driving 4 ton monsters you are also going to require a 4 ton monsters to feel safe.
Unfortunately the culture of America is weird sometimes and in my opinion we fail to realize peak utility in vehicles is in station wagons, minivans and Hilux trucks, all vehicles most American
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There's a few reasons but one side effect I've read about is that we are in a vehicle size arms race. People liked "being above the road" and Americans have always held "big car = safe" and so if you have a family and other people are driving 4 ton monsters you are also going to require a 4 ton monsters to feel safe.
This common line of reasoning people use for buying these giant vehicles really annoys me because their wonderful view of the road comes at the expense of anyone driving behind them in a car not being able to see any road conditions up ahead beyond the back of their giant vehicle. It's annoying every single time I'm behind one (not to mention less safe since I cant see road conditions beyond one car in front of me) and they're absolutely everywhere.
It's one thing if one has a practical need for one of these
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The size arms race was more of a mainstream consumer thing in the late 1990s and early aughts. It ended when gas got expensive.
SUVs and pickups do still rule in terms of US market sales, but the best sellers are mostly smaller crossovers- passenger car platforms with taller bodies. These days, the attribute of perceived safety isn't size as an end-all; it's just an upright seating position. Even in a large, heavy sedan, consumers feel less safe because they're sitting down low and taller vehicles around the
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I feel like it had a peak in the late 90's, fell off in the post 9/11 expensive gas days like you said (the Prius era of cars) but then in the mid 2010's it picked up anew especially with pickups. I mean top 3 vehicles in the USA are all 3-ton+ full size pickups (F-Series, Silverado, Ram) just those alone make 1.7m sales per year so it feels like as you said, a crossover the minimum entry point.
Yeah the brodozer truck era is why most peoples complaints about EV trucks and "my precious towing capacity" fall
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I never understood the towing capacity argument. My tiny compact with a 1.6 liter Diesel engine has a towing capacity of 3400 pounds.
The '24 F150 will tow up to 13,500 lb (SuperCrew, 6.5â box, 4Ã--4, 3.5L) and all models will tow at least 8,200 lb. And that's just the least of the F-Series, but it is the world's most popular vehicle if you add up all the models so it's the obvious example...
If you want to tow around a big boat or a decently-sized travel trailer, your tiny compact won't do that. Neither will mine, for that matter — I have a 2008 Versa with a 1.8l gas engine and 132 bhp, with no avowed tow rating at all in
Re: Screw the American auto industry (Score:3)
I can affirm old people vs low cars. I have a Honda Civic Sport Touring, which isn't even all that small, and my parents can't get in or out of it without assistance. Going back to a normal car after driving a Ford SportTrac for almost 15 years was a shock... for the first week, getting out of the car felt like standing up from a mattress on the floor... and driving through flooded parking lots after thunderstorms has become *scary.* With my 'Trac, water less than a foot deep was irrelevant. With my Civic,
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There's a few reasons but one side effect I've read about is that we are in a vehicle size arms race. People liked "being above the road" and Americans have always held "big car = safe" and so if you have a family and other people are driving 4 ton monsters you are also going to require a 4 ton monsters to feel safe.
Unfortunately the culture of America is weird sometimes and in my opinion we fail to realize peak utility in vehicles is in station wagons, minivans and Hilux trucks, all vehicles most Americans think are not "cool"
I was really pissed when they quit making Ford Ranger trucks in the US, and even the Chevy S-10, once a compact truck, got bloated. After coming back, they are a midsized truck now. Which means that they are what a F350 used to be, in general.
This happens so often to vehicles due to marketing in large part - the 'ers. Bigger faster, wider and so on.
You might add something like the normal Jeeps to that mix. Some places, like where I live have pretty wild swings in weather, and there's a reason that our
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We need a more graduated license system. Even California will let me drive an RV that literally weighs 10 tons on a basic class C, when arguably you shouldn't even be allowed to drive a Brodozer without proving that you are more responsible than is required to drive a jellybean econobox.
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As a guy who's had to rent and drive 26ft box trucks for work quite a few times every goddamned time I think "This should not be legal, how are they letting me just take this thing on the roads?"
Family Guy - UHaul [youtube.com]
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Agreed and really from my experience (and I live in Florida so it may be biased, the drivers here are awful) but like 30% of everybody on the road needs some strict driving re-instruction. The number of boneheaded moves I see and it's just out of pure narcissism; you missed your exit, accept you fate, take the L and go turn around at the next one, do not in fact cut across 2 lanes and the striped divider.
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The US auto industry competes just fine at building what Americans want to drive. The challenge comes in switching over to building what the American government wants Americans to drive. They are far from the same thing.
$70k trucks with beds smaller than a the same model from 30 years ago and $100k SUVs with the all styling of a brick. https://www.caranddriver.com/j... [caranddriver.com]
Yes, people seem to love them, and both pickups and SUVs have evolved to a mix of cargo and passenger space that buyers seem to prefer. I've driven many trucks myself and can see the attraction. Space, luxury, great visibility, plenty of power and all weather capable even if you never need it. I prefer sports coupes but not my place to judge others choices.
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Exactly. I drive a 1996 Honda Civic. If I were to buy a new car, that is the sort of car that I would be interested in. The sort of car that is inexpensive and capable of driving at freeway speeds. If the government would let me buy a Toyota Hilux for $12K I would do that tomorrow. Instead I get enormous pickups and SUVs that get through the loopholes in our current EPA standards and that cost more than my first house.
I just spent a week in Peru where Chinese cars are quite popular, and the taxi driv
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The US auto industry competes just fine at building what Americans want to drive.
Yeah, they're catering almost exclusively to people who have $50k to spend (likely bought on credit) and who also don't mind dumping an extra $150-$200/mo into gas.
There are many people without that sort of budget who still need a set of wheels. I suspect cheap Chinese EVs would sell very well here, and US automakers are rightfully spooked.
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Yeah, they're catering almost exclusively to people who have $50k to spend (likely bought on credit) and who also don't mind dumping an extra $150-$200/mo into gas.
There are many people without that sort of budget who still need a set of wheels. I suspect cheap Chinese EVs would sell very well here, and US automakers are rightfully spooked.
Mostly I think they would capture a slice of the market that would otherwise buy used. How much that affects the used truck market is anyone's guess.
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If you can't sell off your old car at a decent price (and your car dealership also has the lot full of them), your calculation for the next truck has to include a higher deterioration, which makes buying your next truck more expensive
Yup. Just like varying the residual on a lease.
And financing the truck with a loan also might get harder, because your bank might also look into the resale value of your truck
Of course, same as any collateral based loan.
Domestic pickups and Chinese EVs won't directly compete, but they will affect each others markets in subtle ways.
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I've had my current car for 17 years and have no plans to sell it, ever.
Fuck "resale value".
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Remember during the 70s oil crisis when everyone started buying all those new fuel efficient cars from Japanese companies like Toyota, Nissan, Honda and others because the US manufacturers wouldn't (or couldn't) make cars that were competitive?
The industry is no doubt scared of a repeat but with Chinese EVs if those consumers who don't want what Detroit wants them to buy (i.e. the big SUVs and pickups that are the most profitable for the big 3) choose China and EVs instead.
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If you had a successful company building something and then the government came along and said you must build something else
well, you ofc are welcome to write an elegy for the american car industry if you are so inclined but that's not really going to change the story: the product, fossil fuel cars, is obsolete and if the industry can't adapt or come up with something new then it's a failed industry. next. happens all the time. btw, this is pure capitalism ... unless for some reason you want the guvment to help the car industry out of its incompetence? what are you, a socialist?
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the product, fossil fuel cars, is obsolete
If they are not banned I expect people will continue building them for a long time to come.
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sure, why not, by all means go nuts with that niche market, there is one for literally anything, and that's a nice to have. i really think so. this is about mass production, though (and china eating us' lunch).
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Lol, why would they push their car to a charging station? Plug the thing in at home.
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>> building what the American government wants Americans to drive
Nonsense. People that have tried driving EV's or actually own them are generally very happy with them. The Tesla Model Y is the best-selling car in the world at present and you can get one for about $36k brand new after incentives.
China has given BYD almost $4 billion in cash subsidies, that's why they are considered a threat to the US and the EU.
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"The US auto industry competes just fine at building what Americans want to drive."
Then let China sell cars in the US.
...and let's stop whining about China subsidizing its auto industry. The United States does exactly the same thing. Remember the bailout? How did Tesla get started?
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In China, there is no UAW, which costs auto-industry billions of dollars. There are no real minimum wages, ...
So you would be happy driving a car that is, to an extent, built using slave labour ? I suspect that the answer would be "yes" if it means that it costs you less — just as most people are happy wearing clothes similarly made using slave labour, but this time in Bangladesh & similar.
Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:4, Interesting)
So you would be happy driving a car that is, to an extent, built using slave labour ?
"Slavery" means forced labor. It does not mean "paid market wages".
Can Chinese autoworkers quit their jobs? Yes, they can, and every factory in Shenzhen is hiring, so they can find a new job by walking across the street.
Are Chinese factory workers underpaid? That depends on your perspective, but their wages are above the median wage in China and are enough to afford an apartment and a scooter.
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If you look at how poor more than half the country has become
Real median incomes have increased significantly since 1970.
food wasn't as expensive.
The best measure of food cost is the hours of earnings needed to afford it. The price of food has declined since 1970.
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In China, there is no UAW, which costs auto-industry billions of dollars. There are no real minimum wages, ...
So you would be happy driving a car that is, to an extent, built using slave labour ? I suspect that the answer would be "yes" if it means that it costs you less — just as most people are happy wearing clothes similarly made using slave labour, but this time in Bangladesh & similar.
The thing - if a person is physically owned by another, not having freedom to leave, that's slavery. So right off, the emotional use of the words slave labor are misleading. It is not slave labor, it might not be at a pay level you would like, but
The whole situation is awkward to say the least. The unasked question is - what is your alternative to Chine's labor for Chinese citizens? Return to subsistence living? immediately raise wages to the highest of Western wages?
China is bootstrapping, just as Ja
Re:Screw the American auto industry (Score:4, Insightful)
Unfair tax [Re:Screw the American auto industry] (Score:2)
And from information from the great auto company bankruptices of 2008 the comanies whined about labor costing them $78 / hr. Well, it's probably $100 an hour or more by now, It takes 30 - 33 person hours to build a car, so that's about $3300.
Wait, what? You're saying automakers could double the price of labor, and the price of a $70K SUV would only go up 4 percent, to a $73K SUV?
Yow. Doubling the pay of auto workers would improve the economy vastly more than the tax shenanigans you're talking about.
Compare that with 22% of a $70K SUV being income tax expense, or $15,400.
You're double counting. Income tax expense is accounted in the cost of labor. Or do you mean corporate income tax? Corporate income tax for automakers averages 1% over the last five years. And many years is zero or even negative. (And that's one pe
Unfair tax, continued [Re:Screw the American a...] (Score:2)
... See the trick there? A universal tariff that is not a tariff, just the US abandoning the self-defeating income taxes. The FairTax essentially is a luxury tax,
Wait, what? Your proposed tax is only a tax on luxury goods??
and as such the poor pay $0, so "regressive" is impossible.
If there were some way you're going to tax only luxury goods and not things poor people buy. I have no idea how you plan to do this, but rich people have a lot better accountants and lawyers than poor people, so I guarantee you if some goods are considered non-luxury goods and not taxed, the rich people are going to find a way to end up paying no tax.
...Howzzat for drastic and dramatic? Throwing essentially a 30% tariff on the entire rest of the world,
...and the US. You said the 30% tax would apply to both domestic and foreign cars. (before you
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Perhaps the truth is Americans don't necessarily want to shitty cars that American producers are making, but have no alternative except to buy $50K+ SUVs and trucks
They do have a choice. There are many non-shitty imported cars to choose from also.
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Is that your way of saying people in the US don't want to drive EVs? I think lots of people would like to drive an EV if charging stations were as common place as gas stations and EV price ranges matched ICE price ranges. Today, most EV's are luxury vehicles or nearly as expensive. Show me an EV that sells for 20k without rebates and I'll show you a vehicle that can't be kept in stock.
I don't think the typical person now driving a truck or SUV - the majority in most states - are going to drive a $20k electric car instead. You may compete with used trucks and SUVs. Or probably not. Mostly it will compete with used Camry's. That is not a bad thing but it may not be a cash cow.
I wouldn't have given a damn about all the horse buggy makers going out of business if they refused to start making automobiles.
Cars clearly have much more utility than horses. EVs may or may not have more utility than ICE, depends entirely on the use case. I expect they will be coexisting for a long long time to come.
Yes. (Score:5, Insightful)
Given what Chinese industrial policy did to American rare earth mining capacity, and having experienced firsthand what they did to both American and European polysilicon and solar panel manufacturing, yes, everyone else should be worried.
The Chinese do long term planning very well, and the law is whatever the emperor says it is which cuts down on red tape. They can move quite quickly when he wants to.
Re:Yes. (Score:5, Insightful)
Except that the US did this to itself, by mindless greed. "Rare" earths are not actually rare. The US industry just found it a lot better for profits to not have its own mining-capabilities. Same for solar panels.
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Ah, always somebody else at fault. Of course.
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America last. Right?
Re: Yes. (Score:2)
That's not at all why. We don't do domestic rare earth (mainly lithium) mining due to environmental (over)concerns. The cost of going through the whole environmental red tape makes it generally not worth it.
It took over three years of fighting in court with expensive legal costs just to get this done: https://electrek.co/2023/02/07... [electrek.co]
And THAT was in a desert even. And of course, there's the whole "this land is sacred to indigenous tribes unless you pay the right price" crap that happens no matter where you
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In addition, if you haven't heard of BRI, China indeed has a long term vision that should worry the U.S. on a number of fronts. In particular interest to me, I have watched China expand its influence greatly in central america, in our backyard.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Re:Yes. (Score:5, Informative)
FYI - I lived mostly in central america the last 15 years and witnessed this firsthand.
I'm not going to address all your points - I agree with some. However, you might not be aware of the amount of "influence" China has increased in central america. For example, the 'nicaraguan canal', if it ever happens, would be a huge win for China. In Costa Rica, China bribed them with a new stadium to effectively cut ties with Taiwan and get fishing rights for their obsession with shark fins. Most of this stuff doesn't make mainstream news, and half the reason is the concept of 'freedom of press' is much more limited.
Here are a couple of articles that you may find interesting:
https://ticotimes.net/2023/11/... [ticotimes.net]
https://www.reuters.com/world/... [reuters.com]
https://ticotimes.net/2021/07/... [ticotimes.net]
https://www.sharks.org/blog/bl... [sharks.org]
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China is about to out capitalism the USA by providing much cheaper products.
27.5% of $10,000 locks it out of a $55,000 market? (Score:3, Insightful)
What?
I know there is a lot more to it, (nhtsa for example) but how is 12,750 "locking out" from it's nearest $55,000 competitor?
They can't sell the $10k model in the US (Score:3)
So by the time BYD builds a vehicle that a) meets our safety requirements, b) has the acceleration and performance to compete with Gas cars and c) covers the cost of shipping *and* the tariff it's not worth it.
The reason they're targeting Europe is that it's not a wasteland of SUV hell. I think shipping might be easier too, but do not quote me
No, U.S. Workers Should Feel Threatened (Score:4, Insightful)
Capitalism at its best and its worst (Score:3)
Had Musk not performed his swan dive with Tesla over a decade back and committed his entire fortune to an enterprise that nearly every financial sector player predicted (and shorted) was guaranteed to fail, things would have looked a lot different.
Right up to 2024 and beyond, Auto makers world wide (not just U.S.) would still be sending out position statements to the effect: "Fully electric vehicles remain a interesting subject for more study, which shows they are simply not economically viable at the present level of technology." Then: "We are looking new Eco-friendly fuel sources that might cut carbon emissions by as much as 15%. "
That is where they would be. You know it. In 2024.
In the mean time, the command economy of China would be cranking out endless swarms of little crappy battery vehicles by the millions. Scooters, bikes, and little shit-boxes the U.S. market would sneer at. But they would fulfill their function and their consumers would know exactly what range they could get for how much money and nobody would be whining about panel gaps or microscopic paint bubbles or touch screens or whatever. Chinese workers would get to work reliably.
Somehow Musk seems to have little trouble selling Model 3/Y into China, and that while slamming it out toe-to-to with BYD. Anyone care to say how that happens? It seems pretty clear how it does but the real question is does the Dept of Commerce and their auto-maker clients know it?
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While the analogy isn't entirely correct, it's my impression that Tesla's cars are the equivalent of BMWs in country, at least for electric vehicles.
So BYD can be like, say, Toyota. Once you're high enough economically, getting a Tesla for appearance's sake starts becoming a thing. Or maybe you actually need the extra capabilities.
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I think you're overstating Tesla's quality of product. In that regard they're more like Hyundai from 20 years ago.
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He did not make a statement about quality, he made a statement about perception. It may be changing now, but as recent as 2022, owning a Tesla was a status symbol in China.
Those that focus on fossil fuels? Yes. (Score:2, Insightful)
Making your future dependent on old, obsolete and dangerous tech is not that smart a move. Who would have thought? If these traitors to the species had not mainly stayed on fossil fuels, there would not be any "threat from China".
Threatened? (Score:5, Interesting)
Ford and GM have been crowing that consumers don't want EVs. So what harm can possibly come from letting China flood the market with EVs nobody wants? If Ford and GM are right, the Chinese makers will be shooting their own foot. However, I have a feeling Ford and GM are being a little disengenous and the issue might be that people don't want Ford and GM base EVs at $65K a pop.
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I'm sure the EVs the Chinese are currently selling in the EU would pass NHSTA certification. Are those the $10K Chinese EVs? Nope, those are absolutely death traps that have no chance of getting certified. However, the ~$30K Chinese EVs, those have a shot of passing NHSTA certification. Honestly, I hope Ford and GM stop being distracted with hybrids and commit, but I think it will take a systemic shock like the Chinese EVs arriving to break the grip of their ICE agenda and parts revenue stream. Same thing h
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I'm sure the EVs the Chinese are currently selling in the EU would pass NHSTA certification.
The US and Japan have historically traded off who has the strictest crash safety standards, and Europe has been #3. The US was (recently) the first to mandate a partial offset test for example, which itself caused a lot of Euro vehicles to fail and require some significant reinforcement, and more than a few US vehicles too.
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Chinese EV won't meet safety standards
Thousands of Chinese EVs have been sold in the EU, where they meet safety standards that are just as rigorous as American standards.
History repeating itself (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
It should have been obvious in when the 240Z gave the same performance as the Corvette for half the price that the Japanese were going to dominate.
Now here we are with only China offering affordable EVs...
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Excuse me, in 1969. You'd think I would at least manage to get that detail in there.
So, it's OK to... (Score:3)
..outsource manufacturing of almost everything to China as long as it has American branding, but a Chinese brand is bad?
American manufacturers did this to themselves
Sure, feel threatened if you want (Score:2)
Capitalists sell you the rope you hang them with (Score:2)
The Fossil Fuel Industry and their Enablers (hence Fossilistas) fought against solar panels and China dominates the market. Wind Turbines, ditto. Consider all the Republican attacks on electric cars.
It's not Evil China, it's the Fossilistas keeping the US from competing.
Abandonment of small and entry-level car market (Score:5, Insightful)
Incumbent US-focused auto makers/sellers, whether HQ'd in the US or elsewhere, should be worried about their own collective abandonment of the market for entry-level cars and small cars in general. The idea that young person can jump directly from a bicycle or driving the family junker to buying a $60,000 SUV with no entry point in between is clearly not sustainable, but that's where the current crop of automakers is headed. So yes, if they continue down that path they should be concerned about new competitors who have figured out how to make affordable and regulatory-compliant small cars.
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Re: Abandonment of small and entry-level car marke (Score:4, Insightful)
If you stop making new small/entry level cars you're eventually going to stop having a used market of them, too.
Abandoning an entire sector of automobile type isn't good for anyone except automobile makers trying to cut their costs.
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Except that if no new small cars are being made, eventually the used car market for cars with a decade left in them will dry up.
They'll be stuck buying the huge used clunker that consumes even more fuel now that it's old and a bit worn out.
Think different (Score:2)
They sure know how to do macro-economic business there in China. Not bad for a communist country.
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It hasn't paid more than the occasional token statement towards being communist for decades now. It's still statist and authoritarian, of course, but it isn't communist.
Not at All! (Score:2)
Oh sure, your job is gone, along with your house, marriage, retirement, family and dignity, but it's a global market now.
You're competing with teenage workers hiding behind a manipulated currency who live eight to a room while you have to stack four figures a month for a crackerbox apartment 70 minutes from work and go pedal to the floor seven days a week to keep your credit score above 600.
If you listen real careful-like, you'll hear your neighbors. They're living eight to a room too. They're all paid in c
Yes and no. But mostly yes. (Score:2)
They are somewhat copying Japan's and S. Korea's approach to their build-ups. Basically, high tariffs, heavy subsidies, then once up to par or better then others, heavy exports after dropping subsidies. The difference is that when China gets to the last part, they continue to subsidize, and the government makes heavy use of controlling the comp
Cheap disposable cars wont save CO2 (Score:2)
The average age of cars on the road in the US is 12.5 years. In part it is because they are more durable than they used to be, and in part it is because fixing them is cheaper than buying a new one.
If very cheap Chinese EV's are available the economics of repairing and buying used will change. Most people will prefer to buy a new one rather than repair an old one. Cars will just be another cheap disposable consumer appliance. I doubt this will be a net positive for the environment
"Sanction China cos we can't compete!" (Score:2, Informative)
China bad because communism! Capitalism is the answer!
Americans after China does capitalism better than the US:
Waaaaah!!!! We can't compete! Sanctions!
Re: Is Climate change the biggest threat to the wo (Score:2)
Yes. It is possible to use limited resources in an unsustainable way. If technology doesn't replace the resource with an alternative then a future generation has to do without, with a potentially disastrous reduction in the standard of living.