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Rivian Now Says It Will Make Fewer Electric Vehicles This Year Than It Did in 2023 105

Posted by msmash from the how-about-that dept.
Rivian said it would make fewer electric vehicles this year than it did in 2023, resulting from a parts shortage. From a report: The news came as the company reported third quarter production and delivery numbers that came in below analyst expectations. Rivian says it expects to produce between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles this year, down from the 57,000 vehicles it originally forecast. That number was flat from the previous year, when the company produced 57,232 vehicles and delivered 50,122. Rivian said the disruption is due to "a shortage of a shared component on the R1 and RCV platforms," referencing the company's R1T and R1S vehicles, as well as its commercial van platform. "This supply shortage impact began in Q3 of this year, has become more acute in recent weeks and continues," the company added.
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Rivian Now Says It Will Make Fewer Electric Vehicles This Year Than It Did in 2023 More

Rivian Now Says It Will Make Fewer Electric Vehicles This Year Than It Did in 2023

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  • Have to get the cost down (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Valgrus Thunderaxe ( 8769977 ) on Friday October 04, 2024 @10:33AM (#64839477)
    There needs to be more EVs in the 25-35K price range. "Normal people" don't buy 100K cars.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by aitikin ( 909209 )

      There needs to be more EVs in the 25-35K price range. "Normal people" don't buy 100K cars.

      Nissan Leafs new are $28k-$38k with a range of 150-215 miles depending on configuration. For many, that's plenty of range and a perfectly functional daily driver.

      • Re:Have to get the cost down (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Powercntrl ( 458442 ) on Friday October 04, 2024 @11:45AM (#64839677) Homepage

        Nissan Leafs new are $28k-$38k with a range of 150-215 miles depending on configuration. For many, that's plenty of range and a perfectly functional daily driver.

        The Leaf still has a passively-cooled battery. Nissan can pretend a liquid thermal management system isn't needed all they like, but here in Florida I've personally witnessed the battery conditioning kicking on with my Chevy Bolt during hot days.

        IMHO, I'd say the same advice which applies to cheap ICE Nissan cars also applies to the Leaf. Spend the same amount of money buying a used low milage EV from a brand that builds higher quality cars and you'll be better off.

        • >> Spend the same amount of money buying a used low milage EV

          I'm seeing plenty of great deals on Carvana for used EV's. Some still under warranty.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by Hadlock ( 143607 )

          The world doesn't have to build devices to function in your inhospitable storm torn part of the world

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by G00F ( 241765 )

            it does if it expect people to buy them

            And where I am in the north EV's are great. Even worse when need to do a 2+ hr one way round trip in a day where speed limits are 80mph.
            250 mile range at 60mph is about 170 at 80mph, a simple trip to visit family on thanksgiving day is now a nightmare in an EV.

            And turning that trip to an overnight, staying at an airbnb and the trickle charge got us ~1% forcing us to go out of the way paying near gas prices at a Ross parking lot where we had to goto a gas station after

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          Production of the Leaf has ended, they are just selling the last of the stock now. Their current EV is the Ariya, which does have a thermally managed battery.

          There are plenty of 250-300 mile range EVs in the $25-35k price bracket, although unfortunately many of them are not available in the US.

        • but here in Florida I've personally witnessed the battery conditioning kicking on with my Chevy Bolt during hot days.

          I wouldn't judge the world's EV product offerings based on a car that is not only crap by modern standards, but also in the standards of the day was very much a built by a company who had no idea what they were doing in the EV space.

          • Are you seriously implying that the Bolt is actually doing something wrong by keeping Florida’s miserable climate from sending the battery to an early grave? That’s an odd flex. If I knew someone with a Tesla I’d ask them if their car is running the thermal management, but the only other EV owners I’m acquainted with also own Bolts. It’s actually a great car aside from the slow DCFC curve (but I primarily charge at home, so)

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by PPH ( 736903 )

      "Normal people" don't buy 100K cars.

      There are marketing strategies which are quite successful in not targeting the "normal people" segment of the market. Porsche and Patek Philippe are two brands that come to mind. They just don't want you as a customer.

      It's actually not that bad a strategy. Make your product look exclusive and more people will want it. More people wanting EVs is a good thing (at least that's what the greenies tell me). And the price is economically sound. The customer is trading a higher up front price for lower operating c

      • Haha, 'lower operating costs'

        That lower cost is if you only charge at home, fast charging costs more than gas.

        The insurance on most EVs is going to be way higher than a gas counterpart.

        Your tires will wear out much faster due to the increased weight from that battery.

        Ok, you don't have to change oil.Yay.

        You still have to replace wipers, add windshield washer, and replace those high priced low profile tires twice as often. Unless your gas engine has a failure the total cost of ownership is abou

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by PPH ( 736903 )

          That lower cost is if you only charge at home, fast charging costs more than gas.

          Since most driving is done around town, a net savings will still be realized by overnight charging. On long road trips, the added costs can be absorbed.

          • Since most driving is done around town, a net savings will still be realized by overnight charging.

            Only if charging at home is an option for you....

            This is NOT the case for many, many people...at least 1/3 of the US population I believe I heard...

            • Re: (Score:2)

              by PPH ( 736903 )

              Only if charging at home is an option for you....

              True. And welcome to Seattle. Where the city has decided that zero parking multiple occupancy residential construction is the wave of the future.

              The city has seen fit to install some on-street EV chargers. The kind that winch up the charging cables when not in use. So the meth addicts don't harvest the cables for copper.

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by flink ( 18449 )

            Since most driving is done around town, a net savings will still be realized by overnight charging. On long road trips, the added costs can be absorbed.

            Here in eastern MA where I'm paying $0.36/kWh for electricity, it is sort of a wash for savings on home charging. Basically assuming 3.5mi/kWh, I'm at break even with a car that gets 33mpg @ $4/gal for gas. The convenience is nice though.

        • Yes, much lower operating costs.

          If you need to routinely charge at public chargers, an EV is not for you. For anyone with a garage (the vast proportion of non-dense-city US folks) you'll almost never use a public charger. The whole public charger thing is a red-herring for anyone with a personal garage. And the cost difference per mile over gas is massive.

          My insurance is fine on my two EVs. I was surprised how cheap it was, after hearing all the noise about high insurance.

          Your tires wear out faster if y

          • So what if your two kids have cars, your wife has a car and your mother in law who lives with you has a car? You need five garages?

            • No you need one garage, or any other structure which you're parking your cars around, with chargers inside and/or outside where it makes sense. Chargers cost about $120 each, though you can pay a lot more, for dubious reasons. While it's way more convenient to have one or more 220v circuits in that structure, most people can actually work fine on 110v, because most people only drive about 30 miles a day, and 110v will provide (in non-Hummers) more like 50 miles overnight, so your car is always topped off

              • Ok but then you are asking to be stuck at home because eventually with all the swapping around someone is going to forget charging their car. Also with one car charging all night that also means you can never use it all night so you don't really have a car all the time.

          • And the cost difference per mile over gas is massive.

            Not in California (as an EV owner with home charging)

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by dfghjk ( 711126 )

          "That lower cost is if you only charge at home, fast charging costs more than gas."
          Not more, just not less.

          "The insurance on most EVs is going to be way higher than a gas counterpart."
          Why is that?

          "Your tires will wear out much faster due to the increased weight from that battery."
          That is a lie. BEV tires wear out faster because the the BEV market right now specs lower mileage, low profile performance tires. They do not have to, and BEVs weigh only 10-15% more than equivalent ICE cars. This is a popular l

          • I have a hybrid, so the brakes also wear much slower since it also has the regen braking . The 'transmission' is a planetary power split with no clutch or torque converter just like in a Prius. Same gear does reverse, sealed for life no fluid to change since there are no clutches or torque converter wear to gum up the fluid.

            Maybe I exaggerate on tires, but once you consider that EVs are simply priced higher than an equivalent hybrid TCO balances out. That may be different tomorrow, but not today.

            • Oh, you're comparing EV costs not to a gas car, but to a car with BOTH a gas and an EV drivetrain? And you're thinking EVs cost more to maintain?

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by mbkennel ( 97636 )

            > "Your tires will wear out much faster due to the increased weight from that battery."
            > That is a lie. BEV tires wear out faster because the the BEV market right now specs lower mileage, low profile performance tires.

            What's really happening is that new car manufacturers are specifying tires with lower initial tread depth to improve efficiency. So the new car tires wear out quickly. This is a new car problem, but more significant in EVs as rolling resistance matters more for efficiency, so there is m

        • Your tires will wear out much faster due to the increased weight from that battery.

          My partner has a Bolt EUV and a commute that ends up being about 24k miles per year. So far, the tires have been holding up the same as they did on his previous ICE car. Methinks it's more likely that some people are just driving their EVs like a bat out of hell and then are all surprised Pikachu face when they discover that aggressive driving chews up tires.

          • I think this space is so filled with lies and FUD from the fuels industry and the morons who think better cars are somehow threatening to them that it's really hard to get real numbers which you can trust. But I think maybe the tires thing might have a little truth to it because EVs are just so much better at early acceleration than gas cars that people LOVE, I mean really LOVE, to stomp it a little when the light turns green. They don't need to break speeding laws/go faster than 30 mph, but it's so much

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by dfghjk ( 711126 )

        and the thinking that EVs are going to. be sub-30K is not realistic. People are not pricing new cars when they think that.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by flink ( 18449 )

          There are plenty of compact and sub-compact sedans that start well under $30k new.

        • China, Korea, and even the EU (Citroen, for example) are popping out fun little EVs under $30k. They would be fine city cars for the US. But we don't have any "city cars" sold in the US, where our cars are all massive. It's frustrating.

          Kia has the fabulous Ray EV in Korea which of course, they are not selling in the US.

    • Yeah it's a bit of an EV investment death loop out there right now.

      -To increase volume you have to drop prices
      -In order to drop prices you need much more production on batteries to drop the per unit costs on the costliest item in the vehichle.
      -In order to increase production you need a big capex to build factories and secure materials futures.
      -You can't sell enough $70k vehichles to show investors growth to get that capex because the market is flooded with vehichles in that price range.
      -Pause production on

      • Back when they announced the huge battery factories I'd assumed Tesla was going to sell batteries to companies better at pumping out car frames like e.g. Ford or Honda but since with their limited lineup they probably aren't as direct competitors. Seems like most traditional companies are rolling out PHEVs so maybe that's the interim step before batteries continue to fall in price.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by dfghjk ( 711126 )

        Damn, if only there had been examples of bringing new technologies to market before! Who could have predicted these problems? Who knew health care was so complicated?

        Curiously, BEV incentives were designed to address these very kinds of problems. But Musk exhausted his so we needed to replace them with buyer-focused ones NOT designed to help with these transition issues.

        "I think what happens here is whichever companies can actually come through the transition with production capacity in the next 3ish yea

      • So... maybe GM?

        Also an important caveat to everything you said is that it's only true in the presence of tariffs against China. Their market share has been growing very, very rapidly. So rapidly that Europe has joined the US in putting steep tariffs on them

        https://www.euronews.com/busin... [euronews.com]

        Europe is hand-picking the tariff for each company:

        Two weeks ago, the EU reduced an additional tariff on Tesla EVs made in China to 9%, down from the previously planned 20.8%.

        This new rate is significantly lower

        • Yeah I think there's a different world where China continues liberalizing their economy and if they are not considered a hostile economic actor where they come to dominate the EV market across regions.

          China's bad behavior in the past makes it easy to use as cover for what are effectively protectionist policies.

        • The EU's tariffs are relatively light compared to the US tariffs on Chinese EVs, which are 100%.

          Of course, it would be nice to have some other option than keeping car prices high, perhaps a tax subsidy or bonus FICO score points (the US equivalent of a social credit score) if one buys domestic.

    • Re:Have to get the cost down (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Ksevio ( 865461 ) on Friday October 04, 2024 @11:05AM (#64839565) Homepage

      There are some, but in this case, the issue is supply chain shortages, not lack of demand.

      Rivian also makes vans which are aimed at a different market that might be find spending that much.

      • Yeah, I'd also say that price is not yet an issue if you're running into supply chain issues limiting your production rather than inability to sell them at a given price.
        I'd imagine that an EV Van would sell like hotcakes in certain industries. For example, I'm retired USAF, and I was stationed far enough north that all the parking lots had plugs for block heaters. Now imagine a van that's only used for running people around in job lots on base, like 30-60 miles a day, and never needs to go all the way ov

      • The Rivian Amazon van look just fantastic. Watch a video of a driver's review of it on Youtube -- I think there are at least a couple around.
        Building a vehicle for a purpose rather than adapting the purpose to the vehicle looks like a massive breath of fresh air.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by khchung ( 462899 )

      There needs to be more EVs in the 25-35K price range. "Normal people" don't buy 100K cars.

      There are plenty of those being made, all the way down to 10K or less, but you cannot buy them in your country because of reasons.

      • Buy a used Leaf -- you can get one for $11k. Or a used Model 3 -- those are less than $20k.

        "Normal people" often buy used cars, and there's plenty of cheap EVs in that space.

  • There's some roads and bridges around here where the weight limit is 2.5 tons.

  • I have pre-ordered Rivian a while ago, but I've refunded the reservation a month ago. I'm not going to buy another vehicle with Android Auto or CarPlay.

  • The article says the lower production isn't caused by a shortage of customers. Do people think if the vehicle was cheaper the parts would be available?

    The interesting question is how many of our other intellectual models for lowering emissions are similarly constrained.

    The stock complaints here about range anxiety is a real issue and the immediate answer is a PHEV.

    Most of your miles for common local trips can be done on electricity with a PHEV. It charges overnight on a normal plug. It has a smaller bat

    • PHEVs are by far the most likely cars to break down. Plug-in or non-plug-in hybrids are incredibly complex compared to BEVs -- essentially they are a BEV + and ICE car in one vehicle. You can definitely make a reasonable decision to decide you need a hybrid or a PHEV, but a massive proportion of American cars would be cheapest as EVs. In particular the 2nd cars we use for grocery shopping when the "main" car is doing some huge daily commute.

      Anyone whose old, cheap, disposable 2nd car dies should look at

      • PHEVs are by far the most likely cars to break down.

        I would love to see some evidence for that. I don't think PHEV's are all that more complex than a typical hyrbrid. or any more likely to breakdown. And most are cheaper than a BEV. But i agree people should buy used cars. A new BEV or PHEV will have fewer lifetime emissions than a new ICE car, but they will all add miles to the fleet and increase total emissions. BY contrast, a used car is going to be run until it wears out. Any miles you drive it means someone else doesn't,. If you only need one car, your

        • Typical hybrids are more complex because they have both kids of motors.

          • There is no evidence that the increased complexity causes more breakdowns. Sharing two kinds of propulsion may well reduce the wear on each and result in longer life and fewer breakdowns. What we know is that the smaller batteries in hybrids mean fewer emissions in manufacturing than a BEV. A new BEV adds emissions both from manufacturing and driving and NEVER makes up for them compared to any alternative other than a new ICE vehicle. Driving any existing used car will result in fewer total emissions.

            • Well of course there is no evidence yet. These vehicles are still fairly new. Lets see how the gas engines and batteries do once they are 20 years old or so.

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