Follow Slashdot stories on Twitter

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
China United States

How the US Lost the Solar Power Race To China (bloomberg.com) 182

An anonymous reader shares a report: Washington blames China's dominance of the solar industry on what are routinely dubbed "unfair trade practices." But that's just a comforting myth. China's edge doesn't come from a conspiratorial plot hatched by an authoritarian government. It hasn't been driven by state-owned manufacturers, subsidized loans to factories, tariffs on imported modules or theft of foreign technological expertise. Instead, it's come from private businesses convinced of a bright future, investing aggressively and luring global talent to a booming industry â" exactly the entrepreneurial mix that made the US an industrial powerhouse.

The fall of America as a solar superpower is a tragedy of errors where myopic corporate leadership, timid financing, oligopolistic complacency and policy chaos allowed the US and Europe to neglect their own clean-tech industries. That left a yawning gap that was filled by Chinese start-ups, sprouting like saplings in a forest clearing. If rich democracies are playing to win the clean technology revolution, they need to learn the lessons of what went wrong, rather than just comfort themselves with fairy tales.

To understand what happened, I visited two places: Hemlock, Michigan, a tiny community of 1,408 people that used to produce about one-quarter of the world's PV-grade polysilicon, and Leshan, China, which is now home to some of the world's biggest polysilicon factories. The similarities and differences between the towns tell the story of how the US won the 20th century's technological battle -- and how it risks losing its way in the decades ahead.

[...] Meanwhile, the core questions are often almost impossible to answer. Is Tongwei's cheap electricity from a state-owned utility a form of government subsidy? What about Hemlock's tax credits protecting it from high power prices? Chinese businesses can often get cheap land in industrial parks, something that's often considered a subsidy. But does zoning US land for industrial usage count as a subsidy too? Most countries have tax credits for research and development and compete to lower their corporate tax rates to encourage investment. The factor that determines whether such initiatives are considered statist industrial policy (bad), or building a business-friendly environment (good), is usually whether they're being done by a foreign government, or our own.

This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

How the US Lost the Solar Power Race To China

Comments Filter:
  • by Pseudonymous Powers ( 4097097 ) on Wednesday October 09, 2024 @03:25PM (#64851923)
    It doesn't seem to take much investigative sleuthing to determine what happened here. Everyone in America was conditioned by fifty years of unfounded exaggerations that solar power was going to take over any day now that they didn't detect the tipping point when it actually came. By then most of the world's heavy manufacturing capacity had moved to China already. Also, the need to transition off of petrochemicals has been a front line in the Culture Wars at least since the Carter administration, so about half of all Americans are irrationally opposed to solar on top of historically being more-or-less rationally opposed to it. No such dynamic exists in China.
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Wednesday October 09, 2024 @04:24PM (#64852099) Homepage Journal

      The issue is that Americans tend to wait for the tipping point, while the Chinese make it happen.

      They drove the price down with mass production and efficient supply chains, and created the market.

      Same thing is happening with EVs. With the exception of Tesla most manufacturers outside China are waiting and seeing what happens, waiting for that tipping point. Chinese manufacturers decided to just get ahead early and are already dominating. They didn't wait for the tech to reach 1000 miles range and 10 second charge time, they pushed ahead.

      Europe only did a little better in that regard. We do have a lot more EV models and chargers than the US, but still nothing like China.

      Same with wind turbines and many other things.

  • That's like just your opinion, man.
  • What race? Since when has it been a competition? China is still using vast amounts of non-solar power. The biggest factor was probably that China needed to greatly increase their total power production to meet their current needs, while the US has plenty of existing power production. Only a few years ago China was rationing power to various industries. There is a lot less incentive to build solar power facilities, when they will not produce a return, because power is not in short supply. The shortages
  • Race? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Darren Hiebert ( 626456 ) on Wednesday October 09, 2024 @03:50PM (#64852011) Homepage
    Does everything have to be about race? :-) How is solar power a race? If one country does well at it, how does that somehow cause another country to lose anything? In a real race, you lose the award. In solar energy, it only matters that you get there—not that you get there first. The quicker everyone gets there, the better off we all are; we are not somehow worse off because other got there quickly or first.
    • ... got there quickly or first.

      Your win-win philosophy isn't wrong but it's not whole picture.

      Once the technology was developed, green energy is cheap energy: That means cheap manufacturing. That's beneficial to the biggest war-machine and most-conspicuous consumers on the planet.

    • If one country does well at it, how does that somehow cause another country to lose anything?

      Really? This is fundamental economics here. The race is to become the dominant player in a market, when you are you have considerable market power and have the ability to mold the market to suit your needs usually at the expense of competition.

      There are losers here. Real losers. Remember solar is experiencing almost expoential growth currently and yet the stories being run are "US manufacturer Toledo Solar closes" https://www.pv-magazine.com/20... [pv-magazine.com] and "End of the line for US Solar Giant Sunpower" https://ww [pv-magazine.com]

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      If one country does well at it, how does that somehow cause another country to lose anything?

      Unfortunately a lot of countries seem to think that it's a good idea to put tariffs on solar panels, to try to boost domestic production. We need as many as we can get, as cheaply as we can get them, as fast as possible, but politics get in the way.

  • I know who killed it (Score:4, Interesting)

    by gkelley ( 9990154 ) on Wednesday October 09, 2024 @03:55PM (#64852025)
    I was living in Golden CO when they built the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI) in 1979, then Reagan was elected and he cut their budge from $124 million to $59 million in 1982 and laid off 2/3 of the scientists. It was to be the leading source of data about solar energy and employed some of the best scientists and engineers in the field. So when we look at how the US fell behind in solar, this is where it started. https://psmag.com/environment/... [psmag.com]
  • We are losing the race with China in a lot of ways. They are now faster than we are. But we are doing our best to turn it into a wrestling match. I'm not sure we will win that either. But being partners with a bunch of chinese merchants is not acceptable to the folks from Harvard and Yale. They are the world's leaders and determined to stay that way even if its leading a shrinking poorer world beset by natural catastrophes caused by global warming.
  • by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Wednesday October 09, 2024 @04:18PM (#64852089)
    5-ton load of grade A horse manure.

    The author is attributing their success to a local entrepreneurial spirit? I'm sure it doesn't have anything to do with the borderline-free business loans, loan deferment, land acquisition perks and zero-red tape status that the government gives preferred industries. Let's not forget that their polysilicon is produced by a small army of uighurs, who are absolutely beavering away in brutal manufacturing jobs purely for the love of their Han masters. Certainly, the Chinese solar companies are paying market rates for their input materials, water and power, right? Right?

    So much eyerolling that I convulsed a little. I actually read the article. Half of the text is about the polysilicon industry, so much drivel about the farsight of Chinese businessmen and not a single mention of the fact that their workers are near-slaves getting paid pennies an hour. No, clearly the problem is lazy westerners, amirite? They gush about the Tongwei plant like it's a utopia. That company is really high on the list of places that most certainly uses uighur slave labor. Is Bloomberg that much in China's pocket or did this one slip past them? This is a blatant PR piece.

    The US has plenty of shortsightedness and lots of it's own problems. We're far from perfect. But losing the solar market was not our fault. China shoveled money and forced labor at the industry and drove prices through the floor. We should be buying their panels. If they want to impoverish their own citizens in order to sell us solar panels below cost, we should oblige them and buy as many panels as they will sell us. The more we buy, the more cheap electricity we get, which totally drives the economy. When they get tired of making us richer, we can spin our solar panel industry back up, any year we want. It's just aluminum, copper, plastic, and bit of polysilicon. Absolutely nothing advanced.

    I'm not a China hater. The country has a lot of genuine strengths and accomplishments. But this isn't one of them. Any middle-income country can grow an industry if it throws enough money at it. But at what cost?
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Good post. We should definitely be buying up those cheap solar panels. We should be doing the same with EVs as well. If China wants to make cheap EVs, we should be able to buy them. Just goes to show, regardless of who is in charge, the profits of American companies are more important then anything else, including the environment.

      • Cheap chinese EVs are a serious security problem, and I still question their long-term quality.

        Chinese solar panels have proven themselves to be solid products, and they’re not internet-connected. And solar panels are an environmental positive. The sooner we kick our addiction to fermented dinosaur, the better off the world will be.
    • Bloomberg is just a blog site now. You might as well read Livejournal.

  • Oh please. (Score:5, Informative)

    by Eunomion ( 8640039 ) on Wednesday October 09, 2024 @04:42PM (#64852161)
    I've been tracking the solar industry since the early '00s, and China's formula there is the same as its formula in every other industry: Massively externalized cost, allowing it to undercut prices. They would literally do shit like build a government-subsidized coal power plant to run the factory making solar panels (and now are building nuclear plants to do the same), effectively hiding the capital cost of the factories. Labor rights are nonexistent, so worker pay stays low in comparison to anyone but other authoritarian states.

    Not that I'm entirely complaining, apart from the coal, gas, and nuclear plant shenanigans...and general support for human rights. The world is definitely benefiting from China's corrupt behavior to some extent. If you have to spew a product into the global economy at turbocharged volume and high holistic cost, solar panels would be one of the most helpful. But I think it will work itself out one way or another. They can't keep doing that - it's unsustainable by definition. Which means either they'll change or they'll fall out and someone else will take up the task; hopefully a free country that avoids shenanigans.
    • I've been tracking the solar industry since the early '00s, and China's formula there is the same as its formula in every other industry: Massively externalized cost, allowing it to undercut prices. They would literally do shit like build a government-subsidized coal power plant to run the factory making solar panels (and now are building nuclear plants to do the same), effectively hiding the capital cost of the factories.

      Oh, really? Any their government-built power plant only supplies to some solar panel factory and nobody else can get the power? Where is it? In Wisconsin [aaahq.org]? Or in Arizona [reuters.com]? North Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi, Texas, Michigan [goodjobsfirst.org]?

      You either know nothing or the best you could say would be "the same as its formula in the USA". Yet your fellow citizen modded you "informative".

      Labor rights are nonexistent, so worker pay stays low in comparison to anyone but other authoritarian states.

      Like in capitalist [columbia.edu] states [aclu.org]?

      • "Any their government-built power plant only supplies to some solar panel factory and nobody else can get the power?"

        You folks keep trying to change the subject. I said China's power system uses ongoing fossil fuel developments to power their renewable developments - the very definition of greenwashing. America is, however slowly, beginning to walk away from fossil fuels.

        "Like in capitalist states?"

        China is a capitalist state: An authoritarian one. It has the power to direct massive resources quickly i

    • You should really provide links to all your claims otherwise it looks like biased speculation on your part
      • Of course I'm biased! Like I said, I've been tracking the solar industry since the 2000s. But "speculation" is a bullshit statement. And frankly, demanding citations for something like China continuing to build coal plants strikes me as sealioning (making unreasonable evidenciary demands simply as a delay tactic).
  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Wednesday October 09, 2024 @05:08PM (#64852233)
    Hating on green energy became an identity marker for a certain class of people. Something that they could use to identify members of their community and decide who was and wasn't part of their in group.

    We had a multi-trillion dollar jobs program lined up that would have gotten us out of the Middle East once and for all and transformed our energy and we pissed it all away because somebody said the words woke and DEI and that set off about half the country on a tirade.

    So we're right back where we are kissing the ring for the crown Prince of Saudi Arabia because we can't afford to piss him off because he controls whether we get to drive into work or not.
    • I thought we were a net exporter of energy.

      • I thought we were a net exporter of energy.

        We are, but it's a world market, so we can't set the price. Probably more correct to say the Saudis can control if it's expensive to drive into work. That's an extra plus for electricity. Currently there is no easy way to export that energy, so it mostly stays local.

  • by msobel ( 661289 ) on Wednesday October 09, 2024 @05:27PM (#64852287)

    One political party denies the need for clean power. Their platform denies global warming. Almost every project is fought by "local" astroturf campaigns funded through Fossilista funded groups.

    Trump and all his lackeys are calling to defund solar projects. Trump thinks windmills kill birds (about 1% as many as cats, about 10% as many as powerlines. And the whales...

    What did you expect?

  • by Rick Schumann ( 4662797 ) on Wednesday October 09, 2024 @05:44PM (#64852345) Journal
    Climate-change denial, and tone-deaf, brain-dead propping up the fossil fuel industries, mainly coal and oil, by our so-called 'conservatives' in this country, and actively standing in the way of progress in renewables as well.
    Having an entire political party that actively wants to drag us all backwards both techonologically as well as sociologically as well as politically is a cancer on our entire society, and that's precisely what they've been doing for decades and decades now, and will continue to do until they are rendered irrelevant in our government.

    Go ahead and mod me down to '-1, Troll', I'll just keep reposting this same comment until you jackasses run out of moderation points.
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Yep, pretty much. Disconnect from reality comes at a high price. That price is slowly becoming visible at this time. And it is going to get worse. And no, it will not get better. People will continue to vote themselves bread and games until no bread and no games are left. Then that society will collapse and go into darkness. May take a few 100 years or longer for a recovery.

"The pyramid is opening!" "Which one?" "The one with the ever-widening hole in it!" -- The Firesign Theatre

Working...