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Transportation United Kingdom

London Bus Crashes Are the Result of an Unsafe Model (ft.com) 119

An anonymous reader shares a report: Earlier this year I had one of those encounters which, afterwards, I just couldn't stop thinking about. Eight months and some digging later, I have decided to write about it. My meeting was with an American businessman called Tom Kearney, who was on a pavement in central London one Christmas when he was whacked on the head so hard that he fell to the ground, spent weeks in a coma, and only just survived. Had he been mugged? Not quite. He'd been hit by the giant wing mirror of a London bus.

[...] The most recent data show that 86 people died or were badly injured in bus collisions in London between 10 December 2023 and 31 March 2024. Kearney's analysis of TfL data suggests that around three people a day are hospitalised after bus safety incidents. That doesn't feel good, even though it's tiny in comparison to the 1.8bn annual passenger journeys. Compared with other world cities like New York and Paris the capital's buses rank in the top quartile for financial efficiency but the bottom quartile for collisions per kilometre. And the number of collisions in London has increased in the past couple of years, despite buses travelling fewer miles.

Could this have anything to do with the way that bus contracts prioritise speed? Last week, hundreds of bus drivers marched to TfL headquarters to demand better working conditions and the right to report safety concerns "without fear of retribution from TfL or employers." Drivers described the pressure of long shifts, few breaks and having to drive in sometimes blistering heat, all while being shouted at over a monitor by controllers who want them to make up the time to the next stop, and keep the right amount of distance between their bus and next. It's not surprising that a third of bus drivers, before the pandemic, reported having had a "close call" from fatigue.

With the government about to export the London franchise model to other parts of the country, someone in Whitehall needs to take a look. Michael Liebreich, a former McKinsey consultant who sat on the TfL board for six years, believes that TfL's contracting out model is "institutionally unsafe." Bus drivers are under such pressure, he thinks, that some may break the speed limit and overtake cyclists dangerously.

London Bus Crashes Are the Result of an Unsafe Model

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  • Well, yeah... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Moryath ( 553296 ) on Monday November 18, 2024 @09:23PM (#64956195)

    This is what happens when conservative f-tards demand "efficiency efficiency efficiency" rather than building a safe, sane system for a public service.

    The buses shouldn't have to keep such a tight timetable that they're rushing to make the next stop. They should have enough padding in the schedule to accommodate holding at each stop for a few minutes - whether that means they can drive at safe speeds and account for any issues of traffic, or issues with people who have mobility challenges needing extra time to get on or off the bus, or anything else.

    I'm surprised the bus drivers aren't also being forced to pee in bottles. [forbes.com]

    • Re: Well, yeah... (Score:5, Informative)

      by Malc ( 1751 ) on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @01:19AM (#64956417)

      The stops are every few hundred metres, max. If they padded the schedule like that, it would be faster to walk. The worst thing a bus driver can do is leave early, so they will have to wait those few minutes every stop. No thanks.

      To add some numbers from experience: the supermarket is just over 15 mins walk away. If itâ(TM)s more than five minutes wait for a bus, I do walk, because itâ(TM)s faster. Even if I have 25 kg of shopping.

      • I think you well find few fit men under 40 use London buses because its quicker to walk.

        I use the buses several times a week, and almost always, we have to stop "to prove that TFL are incapable of running a bus service" or "to annoy those already late for an appointment" described as "to maintain a good service".

        Basically, TFL is run by morons, and all the customers know it. These are the same morons that redesigned and rebuilt the roads for the 2012 Olympics, but failed to make sure the bends could be tr

        • by pjt33 ( 739471 )

          In case you are wondering how these clowns are in power: The boss is the mayor, who was recently re-elected because the alternative was even worse.

          That "explanation" doesn't explain anything, because back in 2012 the mayor was Boris Johnson.

        • I think the requirement that anyone who runs buses has to be as ignorant as possible of bus services is more or less universal. A favourite trick here is to de-synchronise buses, so an incoming bus arrives at a transfer point nowhere near the bus it's supposed to meet up with. The best one I know of is an hourly service cleverly scheduled to depart five minutes before the incoming bus arrives, presumably so they can claim no-one uses it and shut it down.

          Another trick is to route a transfer run between two

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        The key with busses, since they have to deal with traffic and can't keep a very tight schedule like trains, is to have lots of them. That way you never wait more than a few minutes anyway.

        As for wing mirrors, they should be replacing them with cameras these days.

        • But also modal filters which block cars but not buses, bus lanes and traffic lights which give high priority to bus lane traffic.

          Also mounting the wing mirror higher would probably do 95% on the work at a fraction of the cost and maintenance.

        • Mirrors are far more reliable than cameras. Most organizations would not sideline a bus because the camera is broken; instead, they'll operate it in an unsafe manner.

          My van has retractable mirrors that can be folded in so that I can clear drive thrus, etc... and I believe a similar solution would work much better in this circumstance. It could be as simple as a servo actuated linkage which folds the outboard mirror in when the wheel is turned.

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            They already need a camera at the back by law on newer buses, and it has to be working.

            • You know, it occurred to me that they could just mount the mirrors above the height of the tallest pedestrian and avoid the problem entirely.

              This is a fundamental design consideration failure. Nobody in the design process thought, "You know, on a ~12 foot high bus, we could just mount the mirrors where they wouldn't contact a pedestrian on the sidewalk..." Which means that even if they replaced the mirrors with cameras, they would likely be oriented in such a manner, or with lenses, etc... that would m

      • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

        The stops are every few hundred metres, max. If they padded the schedule like that, it would be faster to walk. The worst thing a bus driver can do is leave early, so they will have to wait those few minutes every stop. No thanks.

        No, what you do is you split your route into several checkpoints. At each checkpoint, the bus will be there at a certain time. There's nothing special about checkpoints - they are regular stops. If the bus is early, it will wait at the checkpoint until the time is reached, then it

        • by Malc ( 1751 )

          I think London buses already have this covered. They do hold at stops occasionally with an announcement about regulating the service*. They also sometimes drive slowly between stops.

          * Actually, it's on the Tube where they regulate the service. I don't remember the exact turn of phrase they use on the buses, but it's the same concept.

    • I'm surprised the bus drivers aren't also being forced to pee in bottles.

      In front of their passengers? :-)

      (Lorry drivers don't have the issue that somebody's watching)

    • by mccalli ( 323026 )
      London has been run by the centre-to-left wing Labour Party almost uninterrupted since the 1980s. There was a brief interruption between 2016-2018. What was done on transport during 2016-2018? The introduction of large-scale cycling and a concentration on cycling lane building (the 'Boris Bike' at the time).

      Please take the politics elsewhere - they do not fit this situation. Both major UK parties, on both sides, have made good (and bad) contributions.
    • by mjwx ( 966435 )

      This is what happens when conservative f-tards demand "efficiency efficiency efficiency" rather than building a safe, sane system for a public service.

      The buses shouldn't have to keep such a tight timetable that they're rushing to make the next stop. They should have enough padding in the schedule to accommodate holding at each stop for a few minutes - whether that means they can drive at safe speeds and account for any issues of traffic, or issues with people who have mobility challenges needing extra time to get on or off the bus, or anything else.

      I'm surprised the bus drivers aren't also being forced to pee in bottles. [forbes.com]

      For the last point... TFL have a decent union. Severely curtails the abuse of staff, makes sure everyone gets sufficient breaks for meals, bodily functions and what not.

      But I agree, timetables needn't be so tight and there should be enough services that passengers are left waiting so long that they'll end up having to drive. But that costs money and a franchise model abhors spending money. Seeing as almost every council has outsourced public transport, it's little wonder that it's poorly run and run down

    • > This is what happens when conservative f-tards demand "efficiency efficiency efficiency" rather than building a safe, sane system for a public service.

      Sadiq Khan is Labour, London hasnt had a conservative Mayor for many years.

  • by gardyloo ( 512791 ) on Monday November 18, 2024 @09:25PM (#64956199)

    [...] Compared with other world cities like New York and Paris the capital's buses rank in the top quartile for financial efficiency but the bottom quartile for collisions per kilometre.

    Where apparently "bottom quartile" means "top quartile", but something in a top quartile doesn't mean a frowny-enough face for the author. Thanks for the careful writing and editing, Financial Times.

    • Not really. The only people who don't understand what the FT wrote are those who think you win golf by taking the most number of swings. The concept of a transport system being in the bottom quartile is the concept of it being instinctively *bad*. You're conveying meaning in comparison to how good you are, the entire article is talking about performance - an important piece of context you seem to ignore. If you are in the top of collisions per kilometer you most definitely are in the bottom quartile when co

      • Collisions per kilometer is quantifiable; "badness" is a lot more subjective. You're right that it's how the author /meant/ it, which I did NOT ignore, despite what you claimed.
        Perhaps you're fine with using "literally" in the way it's often used in current parlance: to mean "very". However, such usage is very often contradicted by its own definition, as is the use of "bottom quartile" in the article. This makes for unacceptable technical writing, and very poor popular writing.

  • And don't walk in a road facing away from traffic. You'll never see it coming.

    But no, this is all the fault of a 'Bus Model'. No not the model of bus, but the dispatch software set up with ridiculous schedules. Oh wait that's not the model's fault either, it is the dispatch 'engineer' or whatever they call it.

    CLickbait trying to sucker us in with 'models' like Al or something...
    • And don't walk in a road facing away from traffic. You'll never see it coming.

      But no, this is all the fault of a 'Bus Model'. No not the model of bus, but the dispatch software set up with ridiculous schedules. Oh wait that's not the model's fault either, it is the dispatch 'engineer' or whatever they call it.

      CLickbait trying to sucker us in with 'models' like Al or something...

      It's an opinion piece, not a news article. You can read the full text with additional information (summary link is paywalled) via https://archive.is/hehDF [archive.is]

    • What are you talking about?
      The summary says he was walking on the pavement, which is the british word for the sidewalk. Do you walk on the sidewalk "facing away from traffic", and always looking for cars to make sure "you see it coming"? (if so... what the fuck. if i'm on the sidewalk i assume i'm safe, that's the entire point of the sidewalk).

      Sounds like a bus that was turning into a busstop a bit vigorously hit a pedestrian. If that sounds normal for you... or the pedestrians fault... It's honestly the fi

      • Over here pavement refers to the road, so OK sure it was a misread on my part. And the streets there are very narrow.

        Ok. But you do not willingly walk that close to the curb.. at least not over here. If mirrors hitting pedestrians are a common problem then the bus mirror needs to be redesigned. Over here busses are so tall I don't think the mirror can even be low enough to hit anyone.
    • CLickbait trying to sucker us

      Of course. Clickbait is all you're evidentially capable of since you seemingly didn't make it past the headline and didn't put even the tiniest effort into understanding what is being talked about.

      TL;DR: Read more, complain less.

      STLDR: You=Idiot.

      • Try reading beyond the first or last line. I said it wasn't a model problem but people problem - those people in charge that are setting the requirements that aren't safely achievable in the real world.
  • Other factors (Score:5, Informative)

    by hackertourist ( 2202674 ) on Tuesday November 19, 2024 @04:44AM (#64956625)

    London streets are extremely cramped. Those buses are 2.5 m wide, and the mirrors extend beyond that. The lanes are barely over 2.5 m in many places, which means those mirrors sweep the sidewalk.
    The sidewalks are also narrow, and people walk along the edge of the sidewalk to avoid groups of people coming in the other direction.

  • London's particularly difficult city to drive in simply because its layout wasn't reformed like other modern European cities. The main streets are narrower, more irregular/crooked, full of bottlenecks, & generally less efficient, i.e. not designed to optimise traffic flow; not designed at all! Anyone wanting to travel by road there will have to get used to the idea that they'll mostly travel at the same speed that horses did back in the day, i.e. the average road speed hasn't changed. London is also the
    • by Bert64 ( 520050 )

      Adding trams and bus lanes will only make the problem of narrow streets even worse.
      The "congestion charge" is not about congestion, its about vehicle emissions - eg electric vehicles are exempt. So it does nothing to reduce congestion, it just pushes people towards lower emission vehicles so they can continue driving.

      • Re: "Adding trams and bus lanes will only make the problem of narrow streets even worse." -- Nope. It's already been demonstrated in several European cities, e.g. in the centre of Seville, Spain. Pedestrianise & restrict vehicle access to the centre & put in trams to move people around longer distances. It's transformational.

        Re: 'The "congestion charge" is not about congestion, its about vehicle emissions' -- What do you think "congestion charge" means? Are you familiar with the concept of conges
      • Adding trams and bus lanes will only make the problem of narrow streets even worse.

        Nope. Kick out cars, put in a tram or bus, and you get 100x the capacity.

        The "congestion charge" is not about congestion, its about vehicle emissions - eg electric vehicles are exempt.

        This is not exactly correct. It came in before electric vehicles were a thing and was definitely 100% about congestion. The exemption was added later because pollution is also a huge problem in London and that was a carrot to encourage lower emi

  • As a little kid I found it odd that the engines were in the rear as I had never seen that before in a vehicle, causing this massive, moving vehicle to be nearly silent at its front end where pedestrians are standing.
    • by _merlin ( 160982 )

      You never saw a VW Type 1 (beetle) or Type 2 (kombi), or a Porsche 911? Having the engine at the rear means you can avoid a long drive shaft under torque, and you can make the floor lower so the bus is easier to board, particularly for less mobile people. Buses used to have the engine at the front, then they moved to mid-engined layouts, and finally the current rear-engined layouts.

      I've never had trouble hearing when a rear-engined ICE bus is coming, whether it's diesel- or CNG-powered. The big high-torq

      • by kackle ( 910159 )

        You never saw a VW Type 1 (beetle) or Type 2 (kombi), or a Porsche 911?

        As a little kid, no. In fact, foreign (in the US) car sightings were rare in my area, into the 1990s.

        All I'm saying is that it's a little weird to have this massive thing moving closer to you but the noisy engine that would otherwise make one look up and pay attention is still 20+ feet away.

  • What's this model that's being talked about? The article is paywalled, so I have no idea. The summary seems to suggest it's related to modeling driver fatigue. If that's the case, it would seem to me that the model wouldn't be the problem because it's obvious that overworking drivers can impact safety. In that case, the problem isn't the model but rather the decision maker who signed off on overworking drivers.

  • Do not lean out.
    Nicht hinauslehnen.
    Ne pas se pencher au dehors.

  • The monitor thing as described in the summary sounds like a combination of Orwell's Telescreen from 1984 and Vonnegut's various means to keep people from over-excelling from his short story Harrison Bergeron .

    It sounds like just about the stupidest idea to put something in that distracts the driver in this way. The most they should do is to set up a notification that dispatch wishes to talk to the driver, and then dispatch has to wait until the driver responds. That way the driver can focus on actually

    • This is how it works in aviation...air traffic control cannot interrupt pilots or require them to respond. Pilots respond when and if they are ready to talk to ATC.

      Aviate, then navigate, then communicate. It should be the same for buses (or all drivers). Pay attention to driving your death machine first and foremost, THEN figure out where you need to go, THEN worry about your phone messages or chattering passenger.

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