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Australia

Australia Struggling With Oversupply of Solar Power (abc.net.au) 164

Mirnotoriety writes: Amid the growing warmth and increasingly volatile weather of an approaching summer, Australia passed a remarkable milestone this week. The number of homes and businesses with a solar installation clicked past 4 million -- barely 20 years since there was practically none anywhere in the country. It is a love affair that shows few signs of stopping.

And it's a technology that is having ever greater effects, not just on the bills of its household users but on the very energy system itself. At no time of the year is that effect more obvious than spring, when solar output soars as the days grow longer and sunnier but demand remains subdued as mild temperatures mean people leave their air conditioners switched off.

Such has been the extraordinary production of solar in Australia this spring, the entire state of South Australia has -- at various times -- met all of its electricity needs from the technology.

[...] [T]here is, at times, too much solar power in Australia's electricity systems to handle.

Australia Struggling With Oversupply of Solar Power

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  • by vlad30 ( 44644 ) on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @03:56AM (#64987127)
    Australia has a spot price on electricty. Too much rooftop has reduced the input credit to the point where it is at times negative i.e. you pay to put power into the grid so unless you buy a battery to store the excess. Solar may not be the cost saving item in the near future for Australian home. https://www.energycouncil.com.... [energycouncil.com.au]
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:45AM (#64987181) Homepage Journal

      You can just not put energy into the grid, you don't have to pay... Assuming you can turn your generation off at the flip of a switch, like solar can.

      What a disaster, eh? All this abundant, low cost, clean energy. It's not like it can be transported or use opportunistically.

      • Assuming you can turn your generation off at the flip of a switch, like solar can.

        A typical solar panel turns 15-20% of incident sunlight into electricity.

        If turned off, that incident sunlight turns into heat instead, and the panel gets significantly hotter, shortening its lifespan.

        It might be better to send power to the grid even if you have to pay to do so.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          At the moment people usually get paid regardless of the negative pricing, although in the UK we do have the option to use a feed-in tariff that tracks half hour energy pricing.

          So it's more of an issue for the grid to solve at the moment. Individuals could help, e.g. by having air conditioning turn on and drop the temperature while they are at work, so it's cool in the evening when they get home. Hot water heating is another good one. The issue is the lack of incentives and often also IT systems that aren't

        • If it becomes a serious problem, a 3kW electric heater is something like £25 from a retailer you can just walk into and pick one up right now. The TL;DR of that is that electrical loads are incredibly cheap: basically some nichrome wire and ceramic. Placed outside to send the heat away obviously :) If you really wanted to take that 15% of power away from your solar panels, this will not be an expensive thing to set up, or for someone to make a device for so you don't have to.

          However, I doubt it

          • Set up a humidifier and a dehumidifier in the same room and sink power there.

            Ultimately all excess power becomes heat, though.

            Power-intensive but cheap to construct processes could be good sinks. Some variation of carbon sequestration? Desalination? Mining sea water for gold?

        • With the cost of solar panels you couldn't be more wrong. Yeah the life is shortened by temperature but it's not shortened by a factor of 90% which is what would need to happen for it to make more sense to pay for grid export.

          In any case you're missing an obvious alternative: localised battery storage.

          • In any case you're missing an obvious alternative: localised battery storage.

            If excess power happens everyday, then sure, batteries make sense.

            If it happens two or three days per year, then no, batteries make no sense.

            TFA makes it sound like it's only an occasional problem.

        • If turned off, that incident sunlight turns into heat instead

          Seems like there's an opportunity here, to create solar panel cooling devices, so one problem solves the other. At the expense of additional hardware, of course, so you'd have to weigh that cost against the cost of reduced solar panel life. My guess is that the reduction in solar panel life is negligible, and increasingly so as solar panel costs continue to drop.

            • Not quite the same thing I was talking about, but maybe better as long as there's some use for the heat. I could imagine a hot water heater system that has a large pre-heating tank which is only warmed by the solar panels, big enough that it's not likely ever to reach the desired temperature... but feeding pre-warmed water into the actual water header would reduce power consumption.
    • Australia has a spot price on electricty. Too much rooftop has reduced the input credit to the point where it is at times negative i.e. you pay to put power into the grid so unless you buy a battery to store the excess.

      Is this something Australian consumers are subject to? Every system I have heard of which had solar and spot prices (you can get 15 minute, but not 5 minute spot prices on UK home smart meters I believe) allows you switch off generation and/or dump to a battery (at your choice) if the price is lower than you want.

      Solar may not be the cost saving item in the near future for Australian home. https://www.energycouncil.com.... [energycouncil.com.au]

      If there's already a much solar as the grid can usefully use, is there much point in persuading people to install more solar without batteries? This seems to me to be one of the cases where a marke

    • Spot pricing in Australia is only for the wholesale market. Currently Australian retail rates are still incredibly expensive. Solar power would pay for itself very quickly in Australia even if grid export is banned / charged for.

      I actually hope something like this happens. If you want a stable grid based on roof based solar then you should open the people with solar panels to market based incentives to install batteries. We're slowly trending in that way, most of Australia has already abolished net-metering

    • by mjwx ( 966435 )

      Australia has a spot price on electricty. Too much rooftop has reduced the input credit to the point where it is at times negative i.e. you pay to put power into the grid so unless you buy a battery to store the excess. Solar may not be the cost saving item in the near future for Australian home. https://www.energycouncil.com.... [energycouncil.com.au]

      Some Australian states used to have a feed in tariff, this was reduced and then stopped a few years ago IIRC.

      The problem is, many Australian states privatised their power companies years ago, so a rooftop solar grid threatens their profits. Australian politicians will happily roll over for them.

      • Feed in tarrifs have not stopped in Australia, though they are lower than they were. I currently get 8c/kwh.

  • Wasted? Whut?! (Score:4, Insightful)

    by bleedingobvious ( 6265230 ) on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:01AM (#64987137)

    It needs to accept that much of this solar will have to be wasted — or spilled — sometimes.

    What a stupid idea. What sort of deranged lunatic thinks like this?

    • Re:Wasted? Whut?! (Score:5, Insightful)

      by dfghjk ( 711126 ) on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:13AM (#64987151)

      a capitalist

      • Aren't most of the utilities in Australia government-owned public companies? These people are central planners who have some urgent biological need for demand to meet production exactly, at all times.
    • by Bacila ( 860302 )
      Unfortunately things with country electricity grid is a bit more complex, than some DC schema on a table. ;) If there are no consumption, then overproduction will be lost. And no, batteries cannot solve all of that due to they can discharge and not provide power. You need at least one or better more powerplants with STABLE power output to keep grid stable.
      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        If there are no consumption, then overproduction will be lost.

        Again with the "lost" nonsense. It isn't "lost" or "wasted". It's solar. Nothing is "wasted". It's just unused. What garbage is this? If this were power from fossil fuel generation then yes - it's wasted - you're note going to recoup the inputs. Solar is effectively infinite until the sun engulfs this planet and brings about the end times.

        • No no, you're wrong. Until we have a Dyson sphere around the sun, inside the Earth's orbit, capturing all the sunlight and making sure that every last photon is converted into electricity, Humanity can never rest. I sure hope they never find out about the nearby blackholes and the energy pollution they create.

        • by nohup ( 26783 )

          It's still "wasted" from the sense that capital expenditures to purchase equipment were made to turn the unused solar power into power that could normally be useful if it could be stored or time shifted effectively. I don't think it's entirely wrong to consider this "wasted" to some degree when wastage can in a broad sense be defined as a useful resource that can't effectively be used, or in this case, maybe even an overcapacity problem until other solutions are found since the capacity produces waste elec

        • by vyvepe ( 809573 )

          If this were power from fossil fuel generation then yes - it's wasted - you're note going to recoup the inputs.

          Why do you think that capital expenditure does not need to be recouped? They spent money to build a solar plant. They are not getting any ROI when the plant is idling. Moreover they still need to pay some maintenance workers even when the plant is idling. My point is: if you think that energy from a fossil fuel plant can be wasted then also energy from a solar plant can be wasted.

          • The 'waste' here is akin to a gas peaker plant sitting idle because the power isn't needed at the moment, not a gas plant burning costly gas only to dump the steam because the power isn't needed at the moment.
    • by mysidia ( 191772 )

      It's just an inevitable fact. If the system has more supply than people need, and the network does Not have a producer or middleman with storage capacity to consume the excess quantity during that period of time, then the excess is inevitably wasted.

      Wasted just like the sunlight that hits the ground without landing on a solar panel.

      • the excess is inevitably wasted.

        Nope. It's just unused.

        Again, if this energy were from fossil or nuke, then yes - you have lost something in the chain. This is something that actually happens in power generation. It isn't ciruclated anywhere. Once you've pushed it out from generation onto grid, anything not consumed from the grid is lost. The process is not reversible so you have wasted fuel by powering nothing. In some cases we push this excess into gravity systems for storage and re-use. In most cases it is just dropped.

        This does *not* hold true for solar. In any way.

    • The reference in the story is actually a great one-- even if poorly phrased on a technical level. Solar curtailment isn't a bad thing, but it is often hard to get over that.

      Next year I will have close to double the PV needed to be net-zero, but my design consideration is to have my home self-consume about 95% of my own power. The last 5% just wasn't practical, as it would double the system cost again. In the end, I will export about 13MWh to the grid per year, and import about 1MWh. Curtailment is harder to

    • Wasted in the sense that power has always been considered of value every time it hits the grid, this article is to prepare residential customers for the reality, their solar systems max production period, is worthless to the utility. A few hours a day, reality is no buyer for the power, because the corporate solar farms have a better contract. so the utility has to reject it. The real consumers of electricity, the refineries, the water pumpers and the metal makers will begin to see the opportunities
      • by shilly ( 142940 )

        Heat
        Cool
        Cook (I know that's technically heating, but in practice)
        Charge car(s)
        Lighting (obvs much reduced as you say)
        Gadgets (each one much less power, but many more of them)
        White goods
        I think those are all the big common categories
        Charging is new, cooking and heating are both much bigger esp when moving from gas to induction cooking and heat pumps
        Domestic electricity loads are likely to go up in the years ahead thanks to this shift to electrification, even as each item becomes much more efficient

    • Re:Wasted? Whut?! (Score:4, Insightful)

      by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @08:02AM (#64987463)

      What a stupid idea. What sort of deranged lunatic thinks like this?

      It's only stupid if you don't understand how intermittent non-dispatchable supply works. By necessity if you want to build a system based entirely on renewables you *need* waste. It needs to be built in due to the dynamic differences of generation between seasons. If you want to get through the winter, you're going to need to waste capacity in the summer. This is a far FAR more ideal situation than building so many batteries to level power across seasons.

      As for "stupid" idea, and "deranged lunatics", what you're talking about is electrical engineers who understand what it takes to manage the grid. Everything looks crazy when you don't know how it works.

      • Everything looks crazy when you don't know how it works.

        Yet understanding perfectly how it works, it's still an absolutely ridiculous claim. Nothing is lost or wasted. The primary consumer is all good. The excess went where all excess goes - nowhere - absent the actual loss of fuel.

    • What a stupid idea. What sort of deranged lunatic thinks like this?

      A realist. I know that's seen as a kind of derangement by most people these days, but you have to take account of the actual situation and not just work on hopes and prayers.

      Eventually the excess will spawn some industry which can make use of some of it, and then less will be wasted.

      Yes, the fossil fuel plants can be spun up and down faster than nuclear, but it's still a hassle and doesn't happen instantly for most designs. So even in the best case there will need to be some overproduction to maintain grid

  • by LoadLin ( 6193506 ) on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:42AM (#64987175)

    Until now, batteries has being expensive, so any battery installation needs to be used a lot to make a fast amortization. Not for balancing prices with small difference between day and night.

    But with upcoming batteries, sodium-ion, in next five years, the price will plummet and even a simple 30$ of difference between night and day price is enough to justify to add a battery.

    So the total batteries will be easily the equivalent of six hours multiplied by the total country consumption. A LOT OF STORAGE.
    And the excess will be reduced greatly.

    Yes... That takes time. For some years, a small number of hours at 0$ price will be expected.

    • Yes. In summary, here in Oz panels are cheap and there are financial incentives to install them, but batteries are expensive, so people don't install them. Governments and planners still haven't got their heads around the need for "community batteries" for example, or the need to subsidise house owners to actually buy them.
      • batteries are expensive

        They also present a significant disposal/refurbishment problem in the future.

        • Tax incentives correct all for batteries, and once solar has no payback, the lawmakers will move on to the next thing. Lead Acid batteries are easily recycled and commonly are in the telco application where they have been for 100 years. They take up considerable space as compared to LIPO but if your doing it correctly LIPO and LEAD ACID should be off in a concrete bunker under a tin roof in the back corner of the yard anyways. The alternative is take a used EV and park it the same space and use its ba
    • Batteries are slowly getting there. A few years ago, if you wanted a lithium battery that was 100Ah, you would pay around $USD 1000. Now, USD $200 buys one a decent battery of that side with LiFePO4 chemistry, and if one wants to go crazy with a spot welder and soldering iron, they can buy a BMS or two, and build a battery for relatively cheap using cells from AliExpress that would be fairly reliable. With lithium batteries as cheap as flooded lead-acid batteries, it is helping things, because lithium ba

  • by shilly ( 142940 ) on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:42AM (#64987177)

    Turns out to be a really great article with a fair amount of practical detail (momentum, system strength) about curtailment, the rising role of battery storage, flexing demand up, and the tradeoffs between building out new solar and new storage.

    I think the reasonable conclusion is that Australia is faced with a really good problem to have -- it has the ability to provide most of its power needs through the cheapest form of power gen of all, solar, and a mix of curtailment, storage and demand flex will increase the percentage of power that can be supplied from solar even more.

    As I've argued repeatedly, burning fossil fuels is like hitting yourself in the ballsack with a hammer. You want to do it as little as possible. If you used to do it daily, and now it's weekly, that's better. If you can do it only monthly, better yet. Once a year, much better. Etc.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      They could become a huge exporter of electricity as well. They seem to be having political issues getting the undersea cables installed, but if they could sort that out they have plenty of space for solar, and decent wind resources.

      • No cheap power comes out of the other side of a 3000km long high transmission system, spot demand, tax incentives and arbitrage pay for the construction. Power does flow because contracts are contracts but a billion dollar spend for the system requires real amounts of payback for power transport. 3000km power transmission systems are useful if there is town with decades long power needs every 300km along the path. Those towns will float between net consumers and net producers multiple times during the l
        • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
          1200km HVDC line, 2000 MW, 2.5 billion euros. Unfinished. Just to give a scale of the effort...

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            I raise you the North Sea Link. 2bn Euro, 1,400MW, 720km, on time and on budget. Included a tunnel for part of it.

            I'm not saying it's easy, but we can do it.

            • unfinished doesn't mean late, or anything negative. That's why I linked: it's supposed to be finished in 2027.
              Just count ballpark a billion euros per 500km. Which your example confirms.

        • by shilly ( 142940 )

          You say that with real confidence, and I'd like to understand your rationale for saying that a 3000km high-transmission undersea cable is inherently very expensive. I can think of lots of reasons why that might be the case, eg the shielding required for undersea operations, the maintenance costs for working at depth with high power, even insurance costs to protect against sabotage. But we obviously know how to lay very long underseas cables for data, and we know how to build HVDC lines, and we have short HV

        • by Whibla ( 210729 )

          No cheap power comes out of the other side of a 3000km long high transmission system... 3000km power transmission systems are useful if there is town with decades long power needs every 300km along the path...

          This is one of the most ridiculous things I've read on /. for a long time. So, you're suggesting building (and isolating) 10 high voltage step-down transformers, and 10 high voltage step-up transformers - pretty much the most expensive part of the system - in order to save money, or to generate sufficient return on investment?

          roflmao!

    • You *read* the article? Who are you, and what are you doing on Slashdot???

  • by Lavandera ( 7308312 ) on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:51AM (#64987195)

    There will always be some oversupply.

    If it will be too large - the batteries will become more profitable.

    It if will be too small - the panels will be more profitable.

  • It's not like the Australian Energy Market Operator and CSIRO were publishing guidance on the need to invest in more storage and means to distribute the power more effectively since 2018. It's not like we had 3 terms of anti renewable federal government determined not to encourage any investment in a renewable future. Oh wait, both of those things did happen. And here we are.
  • It's behind schedule and over-budget, but there is more pumped hydro under construction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

  • The second word in the title is "Struggling", interesting choice (and it is a choice). Why didn't they give a title like "South Australia going gangbusters on cheap green solar electricity, looking to batteries to handle oversupply" The title used gives a problem whereas the article talks about a solution, albeit one that needs further management to make it an even better solution.
    • I see these stories as preparing the first time solar buyers for another cost they will finance over 15 years or that will be included in the house payment. Solar production is cheap at noon, but add storage, and there is something big enough for a tiny industry to make profits off of. Today I am looking for a company willing to dump a battery shed in my back yard under a favorable lease agreement before I install more than my daytime HVAC needs, my utility is showing all signs of flaking out on buildin
    • by swillden ( 191260 ) <shawn-ds@willden.org> on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @08:18AM (#64987495) Journal
      A positive headline doesn't generate as many clicks. When they write a positive headline, some solar geeks will say "cool!" and click on it, while the skeptics will ignore it. When they write a negative headline, all the skeptics will say "I knew it!" and click on it, while all the solar geeks say "bullshit!" and click on it. The negative headline broadens the audience.
  • stop mining coal, and start mining bitcoin.

    But they aren't being nice to the minors, they are banning them from social media.

  • > It is a love affair that shows few signs of stopping

    Not surprised. Over there they can do it right. You can literaly run your house off the grid during a power cut!

    Unlike in the UK where being allowed to isolate yourself from the grid and run off the roof panels along while the grid gets back on its feet is prevented.

  • I'm surprised we haven't all united our power grids into a global "intergrid" yet. We only have a few regional internconnectors in some countries.
  • If you're not familiar with this particular process, it's:
    Quote a TCO that crushes nuclear
    Buy underperforming Chinese crap with low reliability
    Ooooops, we forgot that solar needs batteries and that wasn't in the original quote
    More money plz?
  • by LeadGeek ( 3018497 ) on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @12:11PM (#64988019)
    There are mini-split units available that can handle direct DC connections. These are made to supplement your primary HVAC, and don't require any interconnect to the mains. They don't back feed the power grid, but instead provide heating and cooling when the sun is shining. They indirectly help grid operators by reducing summer peaks.
  • Maybe they can sell the surplus to neighboring countries.

  • at other times typically overnight SA has to import 62% of its energy from coal burning states. We need power 24/7. Somebody suggested batteries. Just 16 hours backup for Australia would be 380 GWh of batteries, about 10% of global production in 1 year. This would cost about 50% of the annual federal government budget, so if we spread it over the likely 15 year life of the batteries, that's about 3% per year. So all your taxes would increase by 3%. That's just 16h of backup, most studies say you need weeks

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