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The Curious Surge of Productivity in US Restaurants (nber.org) 57

Posted by msmash from the closer-look dept.
The abstract of a paper published on National Bureau of Economic Research: We document that, after remaining almost constant for almost 30 years, real labor productivity at U.S. restaurants surged over 15% during the COVID pandemic. This surge has persisted even as many conditions have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Using mobile phone data tracking visits and spending at more than 100,000 individual limited service restaurants across the country, we explore the potential sources of the surge.

It cannot be explained by economies of scale, expanding market power, or a direct result of COVID-sourced demand fluctuations. The restaurants' productivity growth rates are strongly correlated, however, with reductions in the amount of time their customers spend in the establishments, particularly with a rising share of customers spending 10 minutes or less. The frequency of such 'take-out' customers rose considerably during COVID, even at fast food restaurants, and never went back down. The magnitude of the restaurant-level relationship between productivity and customer dwell time, if applied to the aggregate decrease in dwell time, can explain almost all of the aggregate productivity increase in our sample.
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The Curious Surge of Productivity in US Restaurants More

The Curious Surge of Productivity in US Restaurants

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  • As someone that likes eating out (Score:5, Informative)

    by aaarrrgggh ( 9205 ) on Wednesday March 12, 2025 @04:17PM (#65228713)

    If restaurants push to reduce dwell time to improve efficiency that might kill a big incentive of eating out.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by GoTeam ( 5042081 )

      If restaurants push to reduce dwell time to improve efficiency that might kill a big incentive of eating out.

      What could be more enjoyable than eating at a place that does everything it can to rush you out the door?

      • Thatâ(TM)s why I done dine out anymore. Also I donâ(TM)t like being treated as a âoe markâ from eom maximum money is to be extracted. Once upon a time you had a lovely meal as a luxuryâ¦

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by decep ( 137319 )

        The other side of this is being held hostage when your server disappears and never brings your check. Once I have eaten, I am done. Rush me out the door, please.

        • When your food comes, say "I'll take the check, please" (even if it's a runner, they will convey the request). If you decide you want something else, it can be added

          By and large, once servers take your order, they're done with you. And are either onto other tables, eating, or screwing around on their phones.

        • That happened to me at a Steak N Shake. Went to pay and the restaurant was empty of employees. Towards the back I could see what looked the manager on the phone. I set down the bill and walked out.

        • If you are waiting on the waiter, that is your fault.

          As for me, they have five minutes after I finish my last bite. After that, I go hunting. I will ask any waitress I find to ring me up and keep going until someone does.

      • Even the summary explains that the reduction in "dwell time" is due to the increase in takeout customers, not because they are trying to push set down customers out of the door faster. I heavily suspect that this is due to the rise in online delivery apps like Skip the Dishes, Uber Eats etc. which have made it really easy to get takeout from just about any restaurant instead of the far more limited selection we had pre-pandemic.
      • That's why I like hanging out at Starbucks. Alone. In my car. Waiting in a long line of for a cup of coffee.

        Totally beats the lazy European cafe experience of hanging out casually with friends.

        • That's why I like hanging out at Starbucks. Alone. In my car. Waiting in a long line of for a cup of coffee.

          I'm amazed at how often I'll go to a coffee or fast food place and see a line of ten or more cars waiting in the drive thru line. I walk in and place my order and am eating or out the door in five minutes because nobody is inside. It's so weird.

    • all you can eat buffet not mean all day buffet

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by taustin ( 171655 )

      Keep in mind this is based on data from only " individual limited service restaurants", which is to say, places that specialize in - or only do takeout, which is to say, fast food joints. It does not even look at real restaurants.

      Small surprise that during the lockdowns, people discovered that a lot of fast food joints to takeout, and decided they preferred that to sitting in a noisy, crowded place that doesn't get cleaned as often as it should, full of noisy, screaming brats throwing their french fries at

      • not quite (Score:1)

        by Anonymous Coward

        It's a broader category - QSR ("fast food" e.g. McDonalds), fast-casual like Panera, cafes, pizza places etc. The defining characteristic is that once you have your food you don't get further service.

        You are certainly correct that take-out (or more specifically, Doordash and similar 3rd party delivery companies) has a massive share at those restaurants now. It boggles my mind that someone would want a cold burger from Wendy's, cold fries from McDonalds etc. for quadruple the price. If I'm at McDonalds or Ch

      • Meh. To me, nothing is more annoying than finding a place to eat and discovering it is take out only.

        Forces me to take out myself and go to someplace that has table service. If I want to eat at home, I wouldn't pay restaurant prices for my food.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by EvilSS ( 557649 )

      If restaurants push to reduce dwell time to improve efficiency that might kill a big incentive of eating out.

      Many have been doing that for ages. Turn the temp down just a bit. Drop the check with the food or shortly after. Clear the dishes off the table almost as soon as you take the last bite. "Anything else I can get you folks tonight? hint, hint "

    • I wouldn't go that far. While some may take it that way, another way to take this information is that A) consumer eating habits have changed where take-out might be more prevalent, and B) takeout has far lower cost attached (no need for servers or bus people, and you need less real-estate per dollar earned). Thus having a convenient takeout option where customers can buy it to go for a delivery or pickup increases profitability. That doesn't mean they remove the dine-in experience, just adding a take-out
    • That's not new though. It's why I stopped eating out much quite a while ago.

    • Not restaurants at all.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Kisai ( 213879 )

      Two things happened:
      1) they switched to kiosk-only or drive-thru only during the pandemic. Basically only 2 people were allowed inside and nobody allowed to eat inside.
      2) they switched to entirely electronic payments.

      So that's how you increase productivity, you remove the human from the order and cash handing part, and leave them in the food preparation and hand over.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by jonadab ( 583620 )
      You're very much in the minority, though, at least in America.

      Most Americans actively dislike waiting, and will drive right on down the road to the next restaurant if the line is too long; and an awful lot of people are willing to pay a tip in order to ensure promptness on the part of the wait staff. They want to get in, get their food as soon as possible, eat it while it's still hot, get the check in a timely manner, and get out; if at any point in that process they have to wait longer than they think it

  • Not tracking "customers" (Score:5, Insightful)

    by anoncoward69 ( 6496862 ) on Wednesday March 12, 2025 @04:18PM (#65228715)
    What they are probably tracking are Door Dash and Uber eats drivers. That's what's gotten popular since the plandemic.
    • Not to mention that some people still won't eat at restaurants after the pandemic, but will do carry-out.

    • That and ordering kiosks/online order apps. I can be in and out of Nick the Greek's in 30 seconds, much faster than if I have to give my order, wait for it to be assembled, and pick it up. Countering that is the prices going through the roof. I spend $35 getting a meal for two at Five Guys which is absolutely nuts.

      The fine abstract doesn't say it but I assume by "efficiency" they mean "revenue (or profit) dollars per hour worked". Anyone know what they actually measured?

      My favorite coffee chain is Philz (wh

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by EvilSS ( 557649 )

        I spend $35 getting a meal for two at Five Guys which is absolutely nuts.

        To be fair, Five Guys has always been expensive. I love their burgers, but the prices usually keep me away. If we had In & Out in my area I'd never even consider going to Five Guys again.

        • I have a grill in my backyard area.

          There's a local burger joint about a block away but the one time I went in there they made me the worst burger I have ever paid for and some sad, limp fries.

          Five guys is only marginally better than that from a price:performance standpoint, given the expense...

        • Yeah they are probably one of the pricier of the fast food restaurants even before the plandemic and inflation. It's good, but an every once in awhile treat. Plus you'd probably need coronary bypass surgery within a month if you ate it every day lol.

    • I miss the plandemic years. They were the most enjoyable years in my entire life. I almost cried when they came to an end.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Gilmoure ( 18428 )

        Lockdown helped me realize I really, REALLY do not like human interaction.
        Anything faster than a post on a message board is just anxiety inducing.

        Lockdown was so relaxing!

        (looking forward to some form of retirement as long as it doesn't involve living in a cardboard box in a dirty alleyway)

  • "a rising share of customers spending 10 minutes or less. "

    So more people were ringing up with orders and going to pick them up, during Covid and since, and that is used here to show that "real labor productivity at U.S. restaurants surged" ?!

    It's dismal, but it's not science.

    • I mean, this is just a basic defintion of productivity of profit/labor cost. They compared that plot to a few other data sets and sure enough, turns out a higher volume of take out orders increases profit per labor unit .

      I mean it is science, or at least statistics. Undergraduate research level, but still technically qualifies.

  • While I like the quiet, it's a little depressing to go to a take away restaurant and be the only customer there. Especially knowing that not that long ago, it would be moderately busy at this or that time of day. Meanwhile, the drive-thru stays busy... I can't even strike up conversations with the staff to break the monotony because they're rushing to fill the drive-thru orders.
    • I honestly believe COVID lockdowns turned a lot of people into weirdos who effectively don't like ever leaving their homes.
      My sister went work from home during COVID, still is. When we got out, she's always weirdly anxious to "get back home".
      Give it a generation and we'll have an entire group of people who view those who venture outside as, oh, Eloi.
      and that's when the cannibalism will begin!
      But seriously, people went insane and still are.

  • ... that eating at home is more pleasant.

    You still get to have someone else do the cooking though.

    • Someone else? How do you figure? Do you have live-in help? Or is "live-in help" what you call your spouse? In my house, I make the mess, and I clean it up. (No automatic dishwasher, here, either; all old-school. Yay for dishpan hands.) I *enjoy* eating away from home, or even take-out, because it means I don't have to spend three hours doing that shit.

      • He means takeout as opposed to a poor dine-in experience. It's odd reading this summary being called "curious" when the summary buries the real stat at the end, people are spending less time to pick up their food at these not-restaurants which frees the CS workers to help out with other tasks, that's the curious efficiency boost.

    • But paying restaurant prices to eat at home...I don't get it. If I'm going to pay that inflated price for my meal, I want the service that goes with it.

  • I guess it's those 30% tips that waiters demand that are making them work harder? I guess someone must be working harder, but I don't see it. All they do is stand and take orders, then someone else delivers the food.

    • Spot (Score:2)

      by abulafia ( 7826 )
      All they do is stand and take orders

      The know-it-all who has never worked in a restaurant.

      To be fair, I hate tipping too. But the fix isn't calling the worker greedy, it is getting the owner to pay the wait staff a normal wage.

    • People who tip 30% are complete suckers.

      People who tip 20% are incomplete suckers.

      People who tip 15% are sheep.

  • The number of customers that a restaurant can serve in-house is limited by the number of tables. Take out or delivery has no such limit. Also, you do not need waiters of busboys or most other front staff. Essentially restaurants are being replaced by food stalls at least at the cheap end of the market.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Gilmoure ( 18428 )

      How very Roman.

    • The number of customers that a restaurant can serve in-house is limited by the number of tables. Take out or delivery has no such limit. Also, you do not need waiters of busboys or most other front staff. Essentially restaurants are being replaced by food stalls at least at the cheap end of the market.

      And COVID changed our eating habits as a population. Combine the prevalence of fast-food smartphone apps + delivery services on top of our new habits, and it's little wonder that fast food is booming. The apps in particular make fast food much more affordable with their app-only deals. COVID was the perfect petri dish to make all this grow.

  • If they were included as restaurant workers, which they essentially are, then productivity would likely have dropped. However, the study does not include them as restaurant workers. They're considered replacements for visitors driving to and from the restaurant.

  • Hah, imagine the unfortunate Door Dash driver just standing there for ~10 minutes, patiently waiting for someone to eventually move the already prepared food items from the kitchen window to the delivery driver pick up area.

    Oh, wait. That's not imagined, it's a real observation I made while eating lunch yesterday. Yeah those numbers can weave a funny tale sometimes.

  • This is the kind of thing that qualifies for Information Technology thesis papers. It's not science, not computer science, it's Info-Tech, which you can get a masters degree or whatever just by collecting some data, displaying it in some kind of graph, and drawing conclusions about the meaning of the data.
    I don't care enough to look, but did they take into account the fact that you can get dinner delivered by an underpaid delivery driver who works part time as a non-employee of Uber or some other mega-corp

  • '10 minutes or less' is not a restaurant. At a true restaurant that isn't even enough time for dinner rolls or appetizer to show up or be consumed.

    Since most 'restaurants' are no longer such, did they at least draw a reasonable line at what they count as a restaurant? RTA, are you kidding?

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by taustin ( 171655 )

      It does say "individual limited service restaurants". That's industry jargon for "fast food." Not necessarily just big chain places like McDonald's, but any place that is entirely or almost entirely (maybe a table to two, mostly for people waiting, not eating) takeout or delivery.

  • I'm not real surprised they discovered their productivity was higher during COVID, with everything moving to "to go" pickup orders. And obviously, that created new habits for a whole group of customers; they got used to just pulling into an order pickup parking spot and taking their food back home to eat it.

    But at some point, it's like most of the other commenters here are saying. Your sit-down restaurants have to provide an enjoyable dine-in experience. Trying to rush people out the door is NOT the way to

  • Eventually, restaurants will achieve infinite productivity by spending no time and charging only a penny for nothing.

  • and customers are afraid to spend time in restaurants which increases restaurant worker productivity; that seems like a reasonable interpretation of these results.

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