A Busy Hurricane Season is Expected. Here's How It Will Be Different From the Last (washingtonpost.com) 54
An anonymous reader shares a report: Yet another busy hurricane season is likely across the Atlantic this year -- but some of the conditions that supercharged storms like Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024 have waned, according to a key forecast issued Thursday.
A warm -- yet no longer record-hot -- strip of waters across the Atlantic Ocean is forecast to help fuel development of 17 named tropical cyclones during the season that runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, according to Colorado State University researchers. Of those tropical cyclones, nine are forecast to become hurricanes, with four of those expected to reach "major" hurricane strength.
That would mean a few more tropical storms and hurricanes than in an average year, yet slightly quieter conditions than those observed across the Atlantic basin last year. This time last year, researchers from CSU were warning of an "extremely active" hurricane season with nearly two dozen named tropical storms. The next month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an aggressive forecast, warning the United States could face one of its worst hurricane seasons in two decades.
The forecast out Thursday underscores how warming oceans and cyclical patterns in storm activity have primed the Atlantic basin for what is now a decades-long string of frequent, above-normal -- but not necessarily hyperactive -- seasons, said Philip Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State and the forecast's lead author.
A warm -- yet no longer record-hot -- strip of waters across the Atlantic Ocean is forecast to help fuel development of 17 named tropical cyclones during the season that runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, according to Colorado State University researchers. Of those tropical cyclones, nine are forecast to become hurricanes, with four of those expected to reach "major" hurricane strength.
That would mean a few more tropical storms and hurricanes than in an average year, yet slightly quieter conditions than those observed across the Atlantic basin last year. This time last year, researchers from CSU were warning of an "extremely active" hurricane season with nearly two dozen named tropical storms. The next month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an aggressive forecast, warning the United States could face one of its worst hurricane seasons in two decades.
The forecast out Thursday underscores how warming oceans and cyclical patterns in storm activity have primed the Atlantic basin for what is now a decades-long string of frequent, above-normal -- but not necessarily hyperactive -- seasons, said Philip Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State and the forecast's lead author.
Tax the hurricanes! Or deport them! (Score:3)
That will solve the problem! Right?
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It could have, but I hear they dissolved the gubbermint unit that deported the hurricanes. The name was FEMA or something similar.
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Oooops.
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I believe the preferred solution is to bomb them with nuclear weapons.
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That will solve the problem! Right?
It not, don't worry. Mr. Orange will redirect all the dangerous hurricanes with his mighty sharpie.
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At least there was no explicit attempt to blame hurricanes on global warming.
That is because everybody with a clue knows that global warning increases hurricance incidence significantly. The others are hardcore deniers and cannot be reached. Hence, at this time, there is no point in saying it anymore. You cannot reach the delulu and it makes sense to stop trying.
The True Cost of Clickbait Deception. (Score:2, Insightful)
(The Clickbait Bullshit) This time last year, researchers from CSU were warning of an "extremely active" hurricane season with nearly two dozen named tropical storms. The next month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an aggressive forecast, warning the United States could face one of its worst hurricane seasons in two decades.
(The Expected Reality) A warm -- yet no longer record-hot...would mean a few more tropical storms and hurricanes than in an average year, yet slightly quiet
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What ever happened to personal responsibility and not relying on handouts? Fuck you MAGAs have short memories...
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Oh that made me giggle.
Trump: Mar-a-Lago is worth ONE BILLION DOLLARS
County: Alright well in light of that maybe it's time for a tax reassessment
Trump: Wait, no just kidding
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What the FUCK happened to Corporate Responsiblity, you insensitive prick. Fuck your goddamn politics.
Oh that's a good one. You had me going there for a minute. Wait, you thought the corporation would do the "right thing" instead of increasing profits?
Need proof that "it's busy and will be different" (Score:2)
Don't we get the same near - AI quality rehash of this news story each and every year for the last 25 or more years?
Some maybe suggested headlines /s
- Weather Forecasters Need Attention and Hurricanes are Big and Destructive
- Weather Bureaus Seek to Protect Their Budget and Jobs by Spreading Alarm
- Congress designated April 2025 as "National Meteorologist Attention Month"
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If you think clickbait bullshit marketing is harmless, just remember THIS kind of fucking bullshit peddling is the reason your insurance costs have become either insanely high, or corruptly cancelled.
Er, no. The reason your insurance costs have gone up is the free market calculated a higher equilibrium price as fewer providers can afford to supply coverage at the old equilibrium price. If you recall your Econ 101, the supply curve has shifted to the left.
I know the MAGA types' go-to explanation for everything they don't like is that bad people are engineering it out of spite. That is an easy explanation to understand and requires (for them at least) no proof. But there is clear counter-proof here: i
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insurance companies leaving the market would be a self-correcting problem as ballooning profits drew more competitors into the market.
How do you enter a market about which's dynamics you have no clue about, and the entrance fee is in the dozens of billion dollars?
NHC or FEMA ? Who needs them ? (Score:2, Interesting)
The Americans will suffer for their voting choices and that's fine with me. They're dismantling the very government agencies they need in hurricane season. Specially affected are red states .. Their call. I got no sympathy for the USA. Yesterday alone their markets lost 5 trillion dollars .. but who cares ? Donald cares not an iota so all that is fine , right ? Yaaaa.. it's all fine and perfect. Donniew will use his magic marker to deflect the hurricanes and they just won't happen ..
Americans are so screwed
Functionally worse given Trump (Score:4, Interesting)
Good thing we cut NOAA and FEMA! (Score:1)
Solved the problem from both ends, didn't we, Donnie?
Now, how about a nice game of golf?
Disaster (Score:2, Informative)
Whats Changed (Score:2)
"yet another"? (Score:2)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gl... [twimg.com]
Show me on the image where in the last 45 years global hurricane frequency or energy have shown any increase?
Re: "yet another"? (Score:3, Informative)
Plus this: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gl... [twimg.com]
(Note the source is Nature)
Hurricanes decreasing globally throughout the 20th century (you know during surging CO2) everywhere except the North Atlantic.
Personally I'd assume that North Atlantic data has everything to do with the closest scrutiny and highest tech since that's what America watches, mostly. We can see when a cat 2 peaks briefly into a cat 4 out at sea that wouldn't be noticed most other places.
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Some of the decrease and subsequent increase is caused by particulate emissions increasing, cooling the planet; and then decreasing due to better emission controls and regulations.
Hang on tight, we're in for a ride!
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Show me on the image where in the last 45 years global hurricane frequency or energy have shown any increase?
The missing statement in this discussion is: "Last year's forecast was really really wrong!" But they never ever admit that.
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That must be why home insurance in Florida has skyrocketed. Why didn't the insurers look at your chart?
https://www.newsweek.com/map-r... [newsweek.com]
"Florida homeowners paid an average annual premium of $10,996 in 2023—the highest in the country. The national average premium in the same year was $2,377 per year."
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Insurance companies make decisions based more on actual claims than theoretical academic projections. There have been several major hurricanes in Florida recently that have caused a tremendous amount of damage. Whether a trend or just random chance, the insurance companies need to collect enough from their customers to pay those claims and still have a very healthy profit.
The chart that shows virtually no change in either the number or intensity of hurricane's worldwide is interesting. It may mean that the
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Insurance companies definitely do assess risk and set their rates accordingly. That's why insurance rates all along the gulf coast have jumped by multiples over the past few years.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/f... [cbsnews.com]
"Farmers becomes the fourth major insurer to pull out of Florida in the past year, as the state's insurance market looks increasingly precarious amid a growing threat from extreme weather."
"Farmers has also limited new policies in California, which has seen record-breaking wildfires fueled by clima
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That's a very specific, and largely irrelevant question. We're not talking about a *global* hurricane forecast, we're specifically talking about an *Atlantic hurricane season*.
You have to pay attention to the *exact* question you're asking, because questions that sound similar are actually very different:
1. Will global hurricane frequency increase? (no -- models predict a very slight *decrease* in frequency)
2. Will Atlantic hurricane frequency increase? (no -- again they'll decrease slightly)
3. Will more
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There is a clear increase after 1960.
Which you intentionally cut of ... so: your graph looks quite normal.
The amount hardly increases, as after a hurricane you have usually a grace period. However the "size" of the events increase, either in wind speed, rainfall, square miles covered, or all of that.
Melt water will protect east coast (Score:3)