Uber Expects More Drivers Amid Robotaxi Push 29
Uber's autonomous vehicle chief Andrew Macdonald predicted this week that the company will employ more human drivers in a decade despite aggressively expanding robotaxi operations. Speaking at the Financial Times' Future of the Car conference, Macdonald outlined a "hybrid marketplace" where autonomous vehicles dominate city centers while human drivers serve areas beyond robotaxi coverage, handle airport runs, and respond during extreme weather events.
"I am almost certain that there will be more Uber drivers in 10 years, not less, because I think the world will move from individual car ownership to mobility as a service," Macdonald said. The ride-hailing giant has struck partnerships with Waymo, Volkswagen, Wayve, WeRide, and Pony AI. Robotaxis are already operational in Austin and Phoenix, with CEO Dara Khosrowshahi claiming Waymo vehicles in Austin are busier than "99%" of human drivers.
"I am almost certain that there will be more Uber drivers in 10 years, not less, because I think the world will move from individual car ownership to mobility as a service," Macdonald said. The ride-hailing giant has struck partnerships with Waymo, Volkswagen, Wayve, WeRide, and Pony AI. Robotaxis are already operational in Austin and Phoenix, with CEO Dara Khosrowshahi claiming Waymo vehicles in Austin are busier than "99%" of human drivers.
There will be no Uber drivers in 10 years. (Score:1)
There will be no normal uber, lyft, or taxi drivers, as we know them today, in 10 years as the cars will all be driverless. The only time there will be a driver is if you pay extra for one because you need assistance with luggage, or for security, or just to have some human contact during the ride. You will also be able to pay extra for a humanoid robot in the car instead of a human. Also, Uber will be bankrupt.
Predictions in Model Railroader magazine (Score:2)
I have a stack of old Model Railroader magazines for bedtime reading, and I just read the editorial from 2006 about how "in 20 years, model trains will be battery powered so you don't have to connect wire to your rails or worry about your model locomotive stalling on a section of track you neglected to clean."
We are powering cars, smartphones and power tools with lithium batteries, so why not model trains?
There has been a high-tech revolution in model trains called DCC (digital command control) and the
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Two very different markets with different market drivers (pardon the pun).
"On the 10 year prediction of widespread driverless ride share cars, color me skeptical."
Less than 10 years. I'll bet you a beer.
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Bonus. People, even the experts and market specialists, always underestimate the speed of disruptive change. This blogger mentions Tony Seba, worth looking up on Youtube.
https://alearningaday.blog/2017/10/22/horses-cars-and-the-disruptive-decade/
Re: Predictions in Model Railroader magazine (Score:2)
Powered tracks are great. It might be clever to use a small supercapacitor to allow unpowered sections, though. If I had stability I would be modeling an elevated PRT system just to prove that it's possible, but I really don't. Housing is bananas here.
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It's taken the EV more than 20 years already, just to get to 2% or so of cars on US roads. The transition to driverless cars is much more challenging than the transition to EVs. Why on earth would we think in 10 years, every car will be driverless?
It's the 80/20 rule. Driverless cars have developed to the point that they can handle 80% of roads and road conditions. It's the last 20% that will take 80% of the effort and time, to complete. There's a reason robotaxis are only available in urban areas.
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You haven't tried Tesla's FSD lately have you?
"There's a reason robotaxis are only available in urban areas."
Yes, the current generation of robotaxis built on 1990's technology are all geo-fenced and using fussy and error prone lidar. Tesla's can drive anywhere. Even where they're not yet legal.
See:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/O6d6YMG17UU
And lots of other examples.
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Citing Tesla's full-self-driving as evidence, isn't exactly convincing. Tesla's self-driving system is quick-and-dirty, in comparison to those used by Waymo. Of all the self-driving systems, Tesla's is the one I'd be least ready to trust with my life.
But this misses the point. Suppose it is fully ready for prime time. These major transitions in technology take a LONG time to propagate through the economy. Tesla pioneered EV technology, but so far EV tech has failed to penetrate deeply into the market. EV te
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EV technology has been around nearly 200 years [wikipedia.org].
meaning (Score:2)
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Can someone 'splain this Uber thing to me (Score:2)
I guess I sort of "get" this Uber thing because you summon a ride with a phone app, the price can often be cheaper, and supposedly you get a driver who speaks with an American accent in a nice-enough car. Whereas a legacy taxi costs a lot of money, the driver is an immigrant from gosh-knows-where and the back of the taxi has the amenities of a police patrol car?
Correct me on this, but this immigrant taxi driver, for all I know, is represented by a worker's union and has been screened and vetted to becom
Feudalism is back, baby! (Score:2)
"I am almost certain that there will be more Uber drivers in 10 years, not less, because I think the world will move from individual car ownership to mobility as a service," Macdonald said.
You will own nothing and like it. Shut up and pay the tech dork...ceo to go to work.
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This is an executive of a rideshare company talking. Of course he wants everyone to use his service instead of owning their own cars. Duh!
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"You'll own 3 dolls and you'll be happy."
-- Creepy American guy
Don't Get into a Strange Billionare's Car (Score:2)
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It is genuinely hilarious to watch this incredible interest in girls sports that previously and heretofore never existed.
There's also a shitload of people terrified that somebody is going to transify their children. The right wing made up this thing called rapid onset gender dysphoria. They spent around $200 mi
Jobs (Score:2)
There will be jobs from all the economic benefits of cheap transportation. More visits to restaurants, clubs, beaches, and entertainment locations, more products being transport etc.
Who's going to be able to afford (Score:2)
It's not just Uber drivers that are getting put out of work. We are putting programmers and customer service representatives and legal assistance and medical billing assistants and basically every single white collar worker we can out of work.
For some of them they aren't really getting replaced with AI they're getting fired and whoever still has a job is b
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You're mad that you can't provide a useful service or product that anyone needs? Do I have that right? I'll take that as a Yes. OK, so now tell me, do you want your charity in the form of a job wherein you get to do some useless activity, OR, do you want a handout without the "job" charade?
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This is something I don't think people understand. The automation that's going on is going to fundamentally undermine the economy.
Spoken like a true Luddite.
"The end is here! The sky is falling! Woe and despair betide us all!"
You cannot put the genie back in the bottle. Adapt to the world as it is and as it will be, or die. There is no other choice.
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I don't see where anyone advocated for bottling a genie, or spoke against adapting to AI.
I saw a post that advocated for "facing it head-on", which to me at least, implies acknowledgement of the changes AI precipitates, coupled with some strategy for dealing with it. In other words, adapting.
The post I saw said that, because we aren't adapting, many will die. Sounds a lot like "Adapt or die".
With the way you mocked the "woe and despair" that AI may bring, we can presume you don't care much about the sufferi
Why do we need uber (Score:2)
Just own a self driving car and be part of an open source foundation run entity that enables your car to be part of a rental fleet.
"Car as Service" only for certain locales (Score:4, Insightful)
A "car as service" model works fine in dense urban environments where cars are one of many options for getting around and storing a car is an expensive hassle. But even a fully optimized robotaxi isn't going to outcompete private ownership in suburban and rural areas.
People like to have a vehicle they can lock things in during the day, customize to their liking, and will always be there exactly when they want it - not in 5 minutes and not subject to surge pricing or availability issues during peak times. Even if the car is autonomous, people who can afford to have one that is *their* car will do so. "You'll own nothing and like it" is a great fantasy for the ownership class, but if it doesn't add value nobody is going to opt into it who has another option.
Several considerations (Score:2)
Will car owners be willing to give up owning their own cars in exchange for cheaper and more convenient transport? Well, it depends on how much money I can save. If I don't drive very much, then it's quite possible that I'll save money with something other than owning my own car. Is Uber more convenient? Maybe for places where it's hard to find parking, but for most of the US, being able to hop in one's car with no wait will be more convenient. For long distance trips, Uber is likely to be cost prohibi
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I'm not following how cheap and ubiquitous transportation of goods, services, and people will result in economic contraction. Also, a lot of people will want to own cars, regardless of how cheap and convenient a taxi is. They consider a car their private space. I mean, a lot of homeowners could rent out a room in their house, but choose not to. And then there are the germaphobes .. I once saw a family bring their own utensils to a restaurant. (I can't defend the logic .. just saying what I saw.) My point .