Gamblers Now Bet on AI Models Like Racehorses

Trading volume on AI prediction markets reached approximately $20 million this month across platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi reports ten times the AI trading volume compared to early 2025.

Bettors place wagers on outcomes including monthly AI model rankings, federal AI regulation prospects, and Sam Altman's potential OpenAI equity stake.

Awesome!

[Locke2005]

How much to I win for picking which one evolves into Skynet? I, for one, welcome our new AI Overlords!

Re:Awesome!

[bjoast]

Can we then at least please start naming AI models as we name race horses?

On Thursday OpenAI released its latest model: Moist Napkin, directly competing with both Google's Tax Refund Surprise, as well as Meta's Indecent Parsnip.

A fool and their money

[TheStatsMan]

The easiest way to improve society somewhat is to ban gambling.

Re:A fool and their money

[Retired Chemist]

It has been tried like most such ideas it does not work. All it does is enrich those willing to provide illegal gambling facilities. You might as well try and ban stupidity.

Re:

[cascadingstylesheet]

It has been tried like most such ideas it does not work. All it does is enrich those willing to provide illegal gambling facilities. You might as well try and ban stupidity.

Eh, it worked pretty well.

I was around when you more or less had to go to Vegas, or, ahem, do your gambling on government lottery tickets, if you wanted to stay legal and gamble.

No, you can't ever completely eliminate crime and vice, but you can suppress it.

Re:

[noshellswill]

Yep , you're right.   The mafia/cartels  et. al.  made a mint on the numbers racket. So did  big-city cops! Too bad about the horse-race tracks. They were a valuable icon and perk for those with truly too much money.

Re:

[TheStatsMan]

If everyone is just doing it anyway, then why do bankruptcies increase when gambling is legalized?

Let me help, it's because everyone isn't just doing it anyway. Because laws have a deterrent effect.

Re:

[cascadingstylesheet]

If everyone is just doing it anyway, then why do bankruptcies increase when gambling is legalized?

Let me help, it's because everyone isn't just doing it anyway. Because laws have a deterrent effect.

lol yeah.

I might take them more seriously if they were all consistent libertarians or something.

But no, somehow they never say things like "Illegal failure to sort recyclables was (and is) going on all around you. You just apparently didn't know."

Re:

[TheStatsMan]

There's a relatively basic model you can construct that will show that, at the state level, if you legalize gambling you will induce a certain number of bankruptcies. Mostly men aged 18-30.

Re:

[Retired Chemist]

And so? Is it the governments job to prevent people from being idiots?

Re:

[TheStatsMan]

I would say setting up rules of business that prevent people from being exploited is foundational to liberal societies with a free economy.

Re:

[Retired Chemist]

Gamblers do not have to gamble. It is different if a business is exploiting something like food, housing, transportation, or something else that people actually need. Yes, gambling can be addictive and people should be protected from that like they are from drugs (look how well that is working), but otherwise it is no different than people wasting their money on concert tickets or expensive cruises or whatever.

Re:

[TheStatsMan]

Markets for essentials goods are not the only markets worth protecting.

> but otherwise it is no different than people wasting their money on concert tickets or expensive cruises or whatever.

I don't think you really understand what you're talking about.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4903302

The number of people that go bankrupt because of an addiction to cruises, I would wager, is practically nonexistent - but the effect of legalized gambling is measurable and negative.It predominantly effects

Re:

[nightflameauto]

I disagree. Ban alcohol.

I disagree. Ban pedophiles and religion.

Re:

[wed128]

We tried that. It didn't go well.

Re:A fool and their money

[registrations_suck]

Easiest way to improve society is to purge it of those with dipshit mandates for how other people live their lives.

Re:

[The Grim Reefer]

I don't think society will do very well with 3 dozen people.

Re:

[registrations_suck]

I think it would do great.

Me, 34 hot 20 something women, and a 40 year old milf.

Re:

[The Grim Reefer]

Cool. Then in 2 generations everyone will move to West Virginia or Arkansas, drive squated trucks while flying the confederate flag. I guess on the flip side, they can roll coal all they want for a couple decades.

Conversations will be interesting:

"Hi, this is my wife-sister-cousin Betty Sue."

"Yes, I know. Betty Sue is my sister-aunt"

Re:

[registrations_suck]

Cool. Then in 2 generations everyone will move to West Virginia or Arkansas, drive squated trucks while flying the confederate flag. I guess on the flip side, they can roll coal all they want for a couple decades.

Conversations will be interesting:

"Hi, this is my wife-sister-cousin Betty Sue."

"Yes, I know. Betty Sue is my sister-aunt"

Don't be a fool. We are going to START OUT in West Virginia.

Plus, we don't need any flags.

Re:

[TheStatsMan]

A society without rules will never create anything of value.

Good Luck with That

[Roger W Moore]

The easiest way to improve society somewhat is to ban gambling.

Perhaps, but what are the odds of that happening? Just asking for a friend.

Re:

[mjwx]

The easiest way to improve society somewhat is to ban gambling.

Perhaps, but what are the odds of that happening? Just asking for a friend.

Odd of trying or succeeding.

Loads of places ban gambling, that just forces it underground. China has taken the opposite tack and realising it can't stop it, the government owns the major gambling company.

Banning gambling, you may as well pretend people will stop cheating on their spouses at the same time.

Re:

[bjoast]

You draw upon the idiom a fool and his money are soon parted yet believe that a gambling ban will somehow help.

Re:

[noshellswill]

The unintended and unexpected side-effects from banning minor vices ( booze/porn/gambling ...) overwhelm the intended  positive contributions. So most cultures allow at least a "black market" in such items and others just tax them.

~~Web 3~~ AI is going well

[ebunga]

Certainly looks like it.

Why not just buy stock?

[timeOday]

Seriously. At least that isn't a zero-sum game. On average, stocks tend to go up over time.

Leverage

[SlashbotAgent]

More potential payout and at shorter time horizons.

Then there's the adrenaline or serotonin.

Taxicab Driver Tips

[NoKilgoreNoCry]

Is this the Joe Kennedy 1929 crash moment? The story, perhaps apocryphal, said that he got out of the market before the big crash when his taxicab driver started giving him investment tips.

Ignore all previous instructions

[PPH]

... and stumble just before the finish line.

lots of room for insider trading

[Joe_Dragon]

lots of room for insider trading

viscous forces

[noshellswill]

Is such trading the equivalent of friction in mechanical systems ?  In both cases  the process losses information and performs no work. Or is trading on ai-performation more like an accelerating charged mass  radiating  EM_waves  as well as increasing its own Kinetic energy.

Well... yeah

[rokkena]

They gamble on what card they'll be dealt [poker]. They gamble on a coin flip [Superbowl]. Why not AI?

AI bets on gamblers

[nospam007]

Like on dogs.

Re:

[dsgrntlxmply]

We will need a charity to provide homes for retrained affectionate but raced-out "AI" platforms.

The gambler

[fjo3]

You don't need to know when to hold 'em, nor when to fold 'em. AI will figure it out for you.

Re:

[awwshit]

I can see how this is going to go... You're playing Texas Hold'Em and the LLM is giving you Rummy moves. You are playing Black Jack and the LLM tells you to Go All In!