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Transportation

Study Shows Which Vehicles Pollute the Least In Every US County (arstechnica.com) 186

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: Greenhouse gas reduction is no longer a priority for the US government, but if you're looking for a new vehicle and want to buy something with the lowest life cycle carbon emissions, you're best off looking for a compact with a small battery. That's one of the findings from a group at the University of Michigan of a comprehensive study that calculates the overall cradle-to-grave carbon impact for different types of vehicles, including factors like powertrain options, location (within the country), and use patterns. Even better, they built a tool you can use yourself. The study, published in Environmental Science and Technology, compares internal combustion engine powertrains with hybrid, 35- and 50-mile range plug-in hybrids, and 200-mile, 300-mile, and 400-mile battery electric powertrains across compact and midsize sedans, small and midsize SUVs, and pickup trucks, using a life cycle assessment model developed by Argonne National Laboratory and data of model year 2025 vehicles from the Environmental Protection Agency. If you expected that a gas-powered pickup truck would have the biggest carbon footprint, you'd be right. With a driving profile of 43 percent city driving and the rest highways (no cargo), a pickup will emit about 486 g CO2e per mile. Compared to that, a compact electric sedan with a 200-mile battery has just 17 percent of the life cycle emissions and is responsible for just 81 g CO2e per mile.

A short-range electric pickup -- maybe that Slate that so many are salivating over -- is nearly as good, with a footprint that's only 25 percent the size of the gas pickup truck. On the other hand, hybrid powertrains (the kind that don't plug in) only reduce life cycle carbon compared to internal combustion alone by a modest amount -- between 11 and 13 percent, depending on the vehicle class. Plug-in hybrids with 35 miles of range can reduce emissions compared to plain combustion by 53-56 percent; with 50-mile batteries the reduction is 56-60 percent, assuming the PHEVs were driven in electric mode for 58 percent and 69 percent of the time, respectively. When it comes to BEVs, the smallest battery pack always has the least environmental impact. BEV powertrains with 400 miles of range have lifecycle emissions that are 67-69 percent lower than an ICE powertrain in the same vehicle. For 300-mile BEVs, this is an 81-83 percent reduction. A 200-mile BEV can be expected to contribute just 25-26 percent as much CO2e as an equivalent gas-burning vehicle would.

That's not because EVs with big batteries are inefficient -- far from it -- but because making a battery for an EV is a very energy-intensive process. Most emissions from internal combustion engine (92 percent) and hybrid (89 percent) vehicles come from their use on the roads. But this changes once you start adding significant kWh-worth of battery. For PHEVs, the use phase is more like 73-80 percent, and for BEVs, it's just 48-60 percent, depending on the size of the batteries. The researchers also modeled different driving behaviors, including the use cases of someone who uses their vehicle just to commute and run errands; the "occasional road-tripper," most of whose needs are met by a small battery; and a contractor or someone else who has to drive a lot for work, with varying amounts of cargo onboard. As we've known for some time, where you get your energy from affects how clean your EV will be, and switching from gasoline to an EV has more of an impact in Seattle (which relies on hydropower) versus Cincinnati (where the electricity comes from burning coal), for both PHEVs and BEVs.

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Study Shows Which Vehicles Pollute the Least In Every US County

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  • by TheMiddleRoad ( 1153113 ) on Monday August 25, 2025 @11:35PM (#65615838)

    But Fox News told me that my Hummer is more environmentally friendly than my neighbor's Prius, and that his new Tesla is the most environmentally destructive vehicle ever. Cobalt in Africa!

    Waiting for somebody to say that the greatest source of automotive emissions is the tires.

    • Waiting for someone to explain that ACTUALLY mining is not the same thing as 1970s hippies playing drums in a park, because if you're not into drinking raw petroleum with every meal you must necessarily be opposed to people living in houses and the use of electricity.

      Waiting for them to never respond when someone asks why they want to force us all to buy coal when we could just buy solar panels and batteries.

      • Personally, my goal is quality of life, and stability of the food supply. I don't understand why I can't walk to work, walk to buy fresh vegetables after work and walk home to cook a good meal - or walk to a good restaurant. I actually do some of that now, and I see so many of my co-Americans sitting in traffic for 1-2 hours each way, or 2-4 hours a day.. both ways..breathing in that CO2, getting irritated and wasting their time, and making the food supply unpredictable in the long term. There is a
        • I don't understand why I can't walk to work, walk to buy fresh vegetables after work and walk home to cook a good meal - or walk to a good restaurant.

          That was basically Walt's vision for EPCOT. Kind of hilarious to imagine if it had really turned out like that and people actually were living at Disney. Of course, what actually got built was a science-y educational park that ultimately turned into yet another movie IP theme park with relatively decent (albeit overpriced) booze and snackadoos.

          Rsilvergun frequently brings up the whole walkable cities thing every time he gets the chance, too. The problem is, it's not the end-all-be-all solution for everyo

          • I don't think it was ever supposed to be for everyone... The idea that someone would try to turn every rural center into a suburbanite caricature features a lot in these kinds of complaints, and it's really several levels of contrivance. Nobody is going to force a farmer to drink a latte and do all the farming on an electric scooter.

            The 15 minute city thing is supposed to be intended for dealing with extremely dense population centers that people expect to get more dense, and primarily in Europe... not even

          • That was basically Walt's vision for EPCOT.

            No, it's called "Europe".

            I live in London, so it's a little big for that dream precisely, so I bike to work. I can walk to buy fresh vegetables and I can walk to good restaurants.

            Rsilvergun frequently brings up the whole walkable cities thing every time he gets the chance, too. The problem is, it's not the end-all-be-all solution for everyone.

            They're the solution for many people.

            Some of us really do want some space between us and our neighbors, and if you haven't l

            • You're trying to tell someone who lives in a way you say is bad that he doesn't get it. Also, I don't live in an apartment.

              Thing is, affordable high density housing in the US tends to be those apartments with paper-thin walls. That's a tough sell to people who don't want to live like that, and it's what gets built without fail when the rent-seekers have the ear of the city planning commission.

            • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              The space with neighbours thing is something we could really do with though. Terraces and semis are a terrible idea.

          • by Sique ( 173459 )
            Single family homes don't collide with walkable cities. The American suburb is just very badly designed. British suburbs for instance have a walking path behind the properties accessible via the back entrance, and provide shortcuts for pedestrians. And while a cul-de-sac design makes sense for cars, to block through-traffic, it does not make sense for walking paths, because through-traffic is not really a problem with pedestrians. Additionally, here around, public transport can use through-roads not accessi
    • by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Tuesday August 26, 2025 @01:03AM (#65615916)

      Waiting for somebody to say that the greatest source of automotive emissions is the tires.

      That's why I took off the tires and just drive on the rims everywhere.

    • When did Fox News say that?

    • by mjwx ( 966435 )

      Cobalt in Africa!

      Is that Toto's lesser known song?

    • Striking workers, protestors, and immigrants are the main causes of greenhouse gas according to latest government research.

  • I'm sure that this study is directionally correct, but it's frustrating that Argonne don't make the core assumptions more readily available. It looks like you have a register as a user and dig your way through an Excel to get to them. In particular, for the BEVs, I'd like to know if the assumptions for secondary use, the expected lifetime of the battery in both primary and secondary usages, and how they included recycling in the analysis. For secondary use and recycling, what I'd like to know is how they've

    • by jsonn ( 792303 )
      You can find a decent chart in https://www.sciencedirect.com/... [sciencedirect.com]. There is currently no systematic recycling of EV batteries, happening beyond the metal extraction, but that's no worse than the recycling of the spent fossil fuel.
      • by shilly ( 142940 )

        I had a look. I don’t think that’s the GREET analysis, is it? That paper discusses the LCA GHG emissions of recycling, but there’s several other key assumptions such as post-recycling usage, and it doesn’t show them, and I’m curious to know if GREET models them.

        Here’s what I mean: let’s say total LCA GHG emissions including recycling emissions are 17.5 tons. The GREET analysis that this paper talks about translates that figure to a grams of CO2e per mile figure. But

        • by jsonn ( 792303 )
          I wasn't actually talking so much about the emissions per mile figures, but the totals directly referenced in the summary. That gives a good base for line for adjusting it to different mileages. The chart itself also makes it very clear that the majority of the emissions are in the production itself. Note that recycling itself won't eliminate this cost, since e.g. the metal frame has to be molten down first in any case, so just the initial smelting could be avoided and many of the materials involved are lik
          • by shilly ( 142940 )

            Yes, the point about production costs for EVs being the most significant element is well-taken. But you and I and many others on here know that as a baseline, despite the large number of idiots. I’m keen to get to the next level of detail, and also Honestly, for me, in answering your previous point, I had this giant revelatory moment when I started to think harder about the carbon intensity implications of re-use and recycling for traction batteries. The combination of decadal timescales, continued re

            • by jsonn ( 792303 )
              In case it wasn't clear and one reason I did point to that article: the production cost of a EV is barely higher than an ICE vehicle. If it sees any regular use, the EV is going to win hands down.
          • This article is trying to address the issue that out-the-door a EV makes more pollution(carbon). Another study said a EV has 0.5 tons less per year of carbon than an ICE, so the longer they're compared the EV will look better

            Almost 4 tonnes of CO2 are released during the production process of a single electric car and, in order to break even, the vehicle must be used for at least 8 years to offset the initial emissions by 0.5 tonnes of prevented emissions annually. https://earth.org/environmenta... [earth.org]

            Out the door, tonnes CO2e https://earth.org/wp-content/u... [earth.org]

            5.6 ICE

            6.5 hybrid

            8.8 EV

            How long will the battery last? If its 7 years, the EV never came out ahead.

            This study came up with a lot closer figures, but used 150k KM as a lifetime. ICE should last more than double that.

            (tonnes CO2e)

            ICE 24

            Hybrid 21

            Plug in hybrid 19

            EV 19

            Based upon a 2015 vehicle in use for 150k KM using 10% ethanol blend and 500g/KWH grid electricity. https://web.archive.org/web/20... [archive.org]

            It would be nice to see the full s

            • by shilly ( 142940 )

              I know what the study was trying to do. Agree I’d like to see the numbers. If you’ve found a study showing the carbon payback period for an EV vs an ICE purchase is 7 years, you can safely ignore that. In the UK and across Europe, we’re down to 11k miles or 16 months.

              Both an EV and ICE vehicle will last way longer than 150k km.

  • Would be nice if they let you change the lifetime presets. 191,000 miles over 14 years? That's not my driving behaviour, so the whole thing is irrelevant to me.

    Presumably they don't want it to ever show an ICE is cleaner than an EV.

    • Why the fuck would mileage matter much for the calculations? You think that your 7000 lbs dually diesel truck is going to be better for the environment than a Model 3 because you only drive 2k miles a year?

      • Because vehicle production and disposal is part of the calculation.

        The number I quoted before was for a sedan.

      • by Khyber ( 864651 )

        "Why the fuck would mileage matter much for the calculations?"

        Emitted particulate caused by vehicle degradation over time, more specifically tires, bushings, hoses and wiring, etc.

    • Presumably they don't want it to ever show an ICE is cleaner than an EV.

      I can think of one example, but we're talking a truly Apples-to-Oranges comparison: the Toyota Camry Hybrid versus a Hummer EV (one of the least efficient EVs on the market). Other than that, the efficiency gap between what's still considered an ICE vehicle and most EVs, is rather wide.

      • Even then it's a factor of scrapping mileage. Eventually the Hummer will pay back it's carbon cost and overtake the Camry. The exception to this is if you drive the Hummer of a bridge and write it off before it gets to that point.

        OP missed that fact. People don't scrap cars based on time, they may sell cars to a next owner, but cars typically get scrapped when they fail and that is based on miles. Even if you barely drive your EV, over the life of that EV's existence it will still be better than if you boug

    • "Presumably they don't want it to ever show an ICE is cleaner than an EV." ROFL - another one who hasn't done any research
    • by jsonn ( 792303 )
      You can find any number of studies that clearly separate production and utilization emissions. The short version is that the only situation where an ICE is cleaner than an EV is if the ICE is almost never used. Read: when using car sharing or a taxi is the cheaper option anyway.
    • Presumably they don't want it to ever show an ICE is cleaner than an EV.

      Presumably you're looking for a scenario where this is a real thing, the reality is it's not. Even if you don't drive 191000 miles over 14 years, your car lasts a certain number of miles before it gets invariably scrapped. That means if you keep your EV for 10 years and only put 1000 miles on it, it doesn't matter, the next driver will drive it through its carbon payback period.

      The only scenario where an ICE is cleaner than an EV is if the EV is completely written off in an accident before it's payback peri

    • by shilly ( 142940 )

      Under what circumstances would an ICE be cleaner than an EV? What change to mileage or lifetime would make that happen? Bear in mind that the calculation already does not account fully for second use (eg stationary applications) or post-recycling re-use of the traction battery materials (eg in a second or subsequent EV). All of those would hugely cut the relative carbon intensity of the EV from the study’s baseline

    • Would be nice if they let you change the lifetime presets. 191,000 miles over 14 years? That's not my driving behaviour, so the whole thing is irrelevant to me.

      If you drive more then ICE emissions will be even higher but unless you drive a new vehicle for less than one year before having it crushed (not sold) then an EV is always going to be the cleaner vehicle. That is not an exaggeration.

      Take a look at the graph b (emissions excluding fuel) and graph b (emissions including fuel) on page S21: https://ndownloader.figstatic.... [figstatic.com]
      It will show you how much ICE cars emit from merely being used.

  • Does Michigan still have a university, or rather now that they published this, will Michigan still have a university tomorrow?

    Who want so start a countdown timer for when they just lose their government support for publishing woke fake car news that contradicts big beautiful bigly oil?

  • And it's paid off plus driving range is longer. A short-range electric pickup would cost 2-3 times more then what I paid plus would need a home charger.
    • AND with electricity prices rises at eye watering rates - why? AI data centers? Corporate Greed? Black Rock and other hedge funds investing in electric companies? No idea, but the prices are still going up - the cost of charging a car is rising fast, and then there's the peon factors. Individuals will not have access to the electricity a data center does.
  • Speaking as an American here.

    I have questions. The calculator feels like a massive oversimplification, even if the model is complex. For instance, does it take into account how the electricity is generated? We're very proud of EVs "tailpipe emissions" but all we're really doing is concentrating the pollution at fossil power generation sites rn. Not good for the people living there, and have there been studies about concentrated carbon emissions?

    An EV running entirely on coal produced electricity can't have

  • Really? And how does it play out when we KEEP our vehicles (like my PHEV minivan) for 10-15 years?

Elliptic paraboloids for sale.

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