Colleges Are About to See a Big Decline in Applicants (nymag.com) 93
US colleges face a prolonged enrollment decline beginning this fall as high school graduating classes shrink for the first time since the Great Recession. The incoming freshman class marks the start of a 13% drop in high school graduates through 2041, falling from 3.9 million to 3.4 million students. The decline stems from reduced birth rates during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent years.
Regional four-year institutions in the Northeast and Midwest states face potential applicant pool contractions of 15% or more. Small liberal arts colleges, comprising 40% of the higher education market, are particularly vulnerable. 40% of private colleges posted financial losses in 2023. Top-ranked schools in the US News top 50 are expected to experience minimal impact due to sustained national demand for limited seats.
Regional four-year institutions in the Northeast and Midwest states face potential applicant pool contractions of 15% or more. Small liberal arts colleges, comprising 40% of the higher education market, are particularly vulnerable. 40% of private colleges posted financial losses in 2023. Top-ranked schools in the US News top 50 are expected to experience minimal impact due to sustained national demand for limited seats.
Re:Leftism + Lack of ROI (Score:4, Funny)
"Why would I pay you to indoctrinate me to hate my country..."
When you're so clearly getting that indoctrination for free?
Re: (Score:2)
Exactly? I'm not saying whether I agree with you or the parent poster... But if you believe you can get that for free, then why would you pay for it?
Re:Leftism + Lack of ROI (Score:4, Insightful)
Note this was mostly a simple demographic observation being written about, *not* about relative popularity of university among the populace.
It's not that there are the same number of high school students but fewer want university, it's just that not nearly as many people were born.
Since the housing crash, domestic stability has eluded so much of the population that you would count on to have children.
So particularly the cost management is certainly something to watch, but your deeper problem is just that society is failing to instill confidence in the people that they can support themselves and children.
Re: (Score:1)
Re:Leftism + Lack of ROI (Score:5, Informative)
Clearly you didn't read the article. I'll share with you quote from it:
"As New America’s Kevin Carey has noted, the demographic cliff risks accelerating the “geographic consolidation that is already upending American politics” as college-educated Democrats congregate in cities and coastal areas in which campuses will thrive — while people in rural towns, less likely to have degrees, might bear the brunt of closures."
Re: (Score:2)
trade schools have a waitlist and their graduates are making great money
Nope. Sorry. At least around here, trade schools have plenty of openings. You can Sign Up to Start Right Now!
And trade schools are required to post the median salaries of their recent graduates in all of the trades. Pretty much all of the major trades - including plumbing - have starting salaries that would put a family of 4 right near the federal poverty level for this area.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3)
Our local trade school has a 2 year waiting list for the welding program - that's how many people want in
Look around a little bit, I'm sure you'll find one nearby with openings. For example, just a rudimentary search, I found openings at a welding program in a big city: https://www.pcc.edu/programs/w... [pcc.edu]
The average annual salary (not starting), is $54,000. Hardly enough to live a good life in Portland.
And high enrollment in programs will depress salaries as employers won't have to pay as much to recruit good talent.
Some states mandate vocational at Community .... (Score:2)
Our local trade school has a 2 year waiting list for the welding program - that's how many people want in.
It probably varies with the state. California's college system is still organized along the 1050s/60s plan. 1/4 of higher education budget goes to community colleges. Community College has a dual mandate. (1) 2-year degree programs plus remedial and adult education. (2) Vocational training. Some of the more specialized training is not available at all community colleges. But they try to spread them out strategically so everyone can get what they want. For example a cousin had to go to a community college 30
Re: (Score:2)
recent graduates [...] starting salaries that would put a family of 4 right near the federal poverty level
Your life plan is to support a family of four on a recent graduates starting salary?
That doesn't work for any career. It is an unfair measure.
Re: (Score:2)
Your life plan is to support a family of four on a recent graduates starting salary?
The claim was they were "making great money." A job that doesn't allow you to raise a family is not "great money." Maybe there will be raises along the way, but no promises.
No different than day one comp sci intern (Score:1)
Your life plan is to support a family of four on a recent graduates starting salary?
The claim was they were "making great money." A job that doesn't allow you to raise a family is not "great money." Maybe there will be raises along the way, but no promises.
They do comfortably raise a family, just not on day one as an apprentice. Pretty much just like day one as a computer science intern.
Trades pay well, just not day one apprentice (Score:2)
And trade schools are required to post the median salaries of their recent graduates in all of the trades. Pretty much all of the major trades - including plumbing - have starting salaries that would put a family of 4 right near the federal poverty level for this area.
People in the trades do comfortably have families of 4 and their own home. Just not on day one as an apprentice. I grew up in that world, much of my family and childhood friends are still in that world.
Plus an apprentice gets hit with buying their own tools. But buy good stuff and it will last generations. I just installed a couple of electrical outlets with 30W and 60W USB-C ports (phone charging and laptop usage spots respectively). Using my grandfather's Kleins from his apprenticeship days. Pig tail w
Re: (Score:2)
But claims about "high salaries!" and "get rich being a plumber!" and "six figure starting salary right out of the gate in the trades!" are greatly exaggerated and are offered commonly across social media and various other places without any evidence or connection with reality.
In general, broad level data show a direct stair step down in salaries, with Do
Re: (Score:2)
In general, broad level data show a direct stair step down in salaries, with Doctorate / professional degrees at the top, then Master's, then bachelor's, then trades / associates, ...
It varies greatly with degree. STEM may consistently be above trades, liberal arts no so much. Those with liberal art degrees making big money are working outside their degree. They got into some sort of management trainee position and worked their way up the corporate ladder. My former History department points this out during orientation.
And going to college will open more doors and give you more opportunities for success....
IFF you are self motivated and do a lot of self-study along side that coursework. Your average grad, not so much.
Also, keep in mind that community colleges often inclu
Re: (Score:3)
Go to Russia, they'll take you.
Into the army as cannon fodder in Ukraine
Maybe (Score:5, Interesting)
They ought to drop their prices to remain competitive. If the price of education is more than a decade or two of salary for most people, people will not make that decision. Colleges are fat hogs feeding on money, and a lot of the costs could be eliminated.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3)
states didn't reduce their support, rather their support became a smaller and smaller part of the university's budget
Well, it depends on how you track spending over time and how you adjust for inflation. In many states, state spending on higher education is either down or flat once you adjust for inflation. And costs, particularly health insurance, have risen much faster than inflation, so even maintaining services at the same level means you'll have to find more money elsewhere (usually tuition and fees). Public institutions are increasingly called to do things outside of teaching classes in their states, such as extensi
Re: As state subsidies decline, tuition goes way u (Score:2)
What's the private colleges' excuse?
Re: (Score:3)
What's the private colleges' excuse
The majority of costs for colleges / universities are personnel costs. Health insurance costs have gone through the roof. Students' expectations for amenities continues to rise, and the vote with their feet. Frankly, most students are not that cost sensitive and will often pick a more expensive place with more amenities than a slightly cheaper place with less.
Re: As state subsidies decline, tuition goes way (Score:1)
Yes, people are bad with money. If only there were places that taught people things like...economics.
Tldr: the colleges...nearly all colleges...are run by crooks who hide behind the ideal of academia.
Re: (Score:3)
If only people could teach the "right wing" basic math... and basic economics. Their track record governing has been abysmal; all they can do is lie about it.
Re: (Score:2)
ALSO they blow maybe 1/3 of their budget advertising and promoting their school; including retention and fluffing their customers. One local school in my city has a whole job placement dept which is great for them but it is not free; they also have a foreign trip included in their degree which at least gets the students outside the culture for a few weeks - but that isn't free either.
I still don't believe many who claim their sports programs pay for themselves.
Re: (Score:2)
As for amenities, they have been shown to decrease student achievement, so students making decisions based on the size of dorm rooms and entertainment options are already making a mistake.
Re: (Score:2)
What's the private colleges' excuse?
I don't think there is a University/College in the country that doesn't receive state support money in some form. Private is of course far less, but still significant.
I suppose only the local student receive state funding, but undergraduate students are often locals (vs graduate students).
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3)
This is basic economics, they are pricing out students. Lower prices = more demand and higher prices = less demand. This is a demand problem people are being priced out. Education is pricing out students. Students also have choices, they can go to community colleges and then go to university.
Re:Maybe (Score:5, Interesting)
...they are pricing out students.
This is true. I took the long, nine-year route to my degree in the 90s. When I started, my classes were $23/credit hour. I figured I would work part time and go to college part time, and I was in no hurry. I watched the price of a credit hour increase every single semester. At the end of my college career, a credit hour cost roughly $300.
It quickly got to the point where my part-time job was no longer sufficient to fund my long-view college aspirations. Five years after I took my first class, I had a grand total of 24 credits. I realized that my plan to graduate debt-free was no longer viable, so I realized that I was going to have to take on debt. I got Pell grants and student loans. Fortunately, I had the good sense to stay living at home with my parents. I can't overstate how much that contributed to my eventual graduation.
But yes, college/university prices have exceeded their return on investment.
Re:Maybe (Score:4, Interesting)
Unlikely. What happens is colleges will just lay off staff and cut unprofitable programs.
The big decline in applicants is from international students - no doubt because someone decided to go after foreigners, and foreigners pay a LOT more money. That money funds the school operations.
Cut back on those increased fees and get stuck with domestic students - well, they don't pay as much money and now there's a shortfall. Couple that with again a certain administration's cutback of grants and such, and there will be deficits.
All that happens now is cutbacks to programs - those research grants were often what attracted professors to a certain college and without those, well, the college can't replace those grants and likely the stipend the professor gets so professor pay goes down. Staffing gets cut, etc.
Chances are prices will go up to try to stem the losses from lack of international students and lack of research grants, layoffs, and other fun things.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
It's not ideological BS, and most economic problems aren't as simple as basic economics. To say that raising prices for consumers doesn't price people out is BS. People make decisions based off of price. Why would you go to school if it takes half your life or never to pay it off? Eventually if you raise the price high enough you will price people out, that's what's happening.
But students aren't getting value out of school. And schools are too busy raising prices, the price of school over the last few decad
Re:Maybe .... (Score:2)
Just like many parts of the Government.....
Re: (Score:2)
Won't happen. Why? Because the government uses the future of their students to guarantee a seemingly unending flow of cash. Lower prices? Ha! They will raise them until the government cuts off their funding.
Or, apparently, when people stop going to college because of how expensive it is.
Fiction meets reality (Score:5, Insightful)
For years, people have been told a story. To get a good job, you need a diploma. NOT an education, just a diploma.
Some students, who loved to learn, worked really hard to train their minds, and as a bonus, got a diploma.
Others slouched through college, putting in minimal effort, socializing, binge drinking and cheating on exams to barely graduate and get what they believed would be the key to success, a diploma.
For the excellent, well trained minds, the diploma was nearly useless, their trained minds, knowledge and accomplishments guaranteed success.
For the slouchers, the diploma was totally useless, their laziness and lack of motivation guaranteed failure.
Re:Fiction meets reality (Score:5, Insightful)
You have tremendously oversimplified the issue.
Among other issues, you have ignored the gifted students. Many of them were used to coasting through high school classes. Some of them continued to do it in college.
The most brilliant slouched through college with minimal effort and came out with good grades. They never needed the diploma.
Then there were the ones that were better than their tiny high school, but not geniuses. Some of them slouched through and failed their first semester. Some of them turned it around and became hard workers, some quit, some turned into slouchers and barely got the diploma. Some of the quitters founded startups and became rich. Others screwed up their life.
Most of the hard workers were never the geniuses. A lot of school has always been about hard work. That is the secret to getting an A. Brains helps, but hard work is more important for most of us.
The secret to getting an A (Score:2)
That is the secret to getting an A. Brains helps, but hard work is more important for most of us.
That's true if you are taking classes that aren't way too easy for you. But stick a smart/gifted-and-talented high school student in a non-advanced class, and he'll get the maximum grade without much work as long as he doesn't totally blow it off from boredom.
Of course, in that scenario, the A isn't worth much.
To get an A that really means something, the class needs to be challenging enough that a normal, don't-strain-yourself level of work plus whatever brains and experience you have coming into the class
Re: (Score:2)
"The most brilliant slouched through college with minimal effort and came out with good grades. They never needed the diploma."
I
They didn't need the diploma to learn, but HR needed the diploma to hire them.
The "need a degree" story was true for a long time (Score:1)
To get a good job, you need a diploma [I assume you mean college degree, not just high school diploma]
For much of the last third of the 1900s and the early part of this century, you did "need a degree" to be promoted past a certain level, even if it meant otherwise-qualified applicants wouldn't even be looked at.
There's less of that now: Wise companies have realized that "a degree or equivalent experience" is better for recruitment than "must have a degree."
Re: (Score:2)
Wise companies have realized that "a degree or equivalent experience" is better for recruitment than "must have a degree.
Someone please tell the AI filters in HR....
Re: (Score:2)
Re:Fiction meets reality (Score:4, Insightful)
A tired trope.
A college degree never promised victory. It was just the entry ticket to the race.
Exceptions always existed: some had real talent, and some were born to privilege.
You've been reading too much propaganda (Score:4, Interesting)
No, you me and everyone here was told to go get an education not a diploma. That's what the phrase is. Get an education. That's why you used that phrase first. It was the first phrase that came to your mind. Not get a diploma but get an education.
So stop and think for a bit here. Really seriously. No jokes no nothing no laughs just stop.
Why did we start sending kids to school?
Honest answer? They needed to know how to read so they could work in factories we're reading was necessary. There's a bit more to it as far as the history of religion and the democratization of the printing press and all that fun stuff but early schools were focused on getting people who were used to farming used to factory work.
In other words we want it increased productivity by increasing their skill set. In this case the skill set was reading and basic math.
As technology advanced a few years of school wasn't enough. So we started to send them to a more school. High school.
High School became the minimum not just because of education or because us radical leftists were indoctrinating kids, high school became the minimum because we demanded higher productivity and higher productivity requires more knowledge and skill and more knowledge and skill requires more education.
And we are now at the point where if somebody wants to earn the right to have reliable access to food, shelter, healthcare and transportation then they need to be able to have even more education. Not because they have to be big brain Smarties but because they have to be tremendously productive .
The thread running through all this is that our society demands more productivity from the youth every cycle and the only way you can do that is by increasing their skill sets.
Going to be a plumber. If you learn the basics you're going to be lucky to clear what you could working at one of the nicer fast food restaurants.
If you move up to the equivalent of a journeyman or a master plumber then you're probably going to make at least enough money that if your wife has an equivalent job the two of you can get by as long as nothing goes wrong (sorry I only dabbled in being an electrician and making fun of plumbers because as the saying goes paychecks on fridays, shit runs downhill and don't bite your nails).
And finally when people talk about plumbers making good money what they're talking about is people that own their own plumbing business. Being a plumber and being a small businessman are very different things. They require very different skill sets.
Yeah it is possible for you to pick up the skills but honestly most of the guys I knew that did plumbing and ran their own businesses or honestly any blue collar shit had a wife that had gone to at least two years of college to get the degrees they needed to get the training they needed in order to run a small business because running a small business isn't anywhere near as easy as people think it is.
So typically you've got a husband that did a bunch of advanced training so that they had advanced skills and you have a wife who has a couple of years of college maybe even a full-on degree and then we all just kind of pretend that the only thing there is the husband who fixed sinks until he could make $50 an hour take home...
Again more education is more productivity and we keep demanding more productivity in order to access the good things in life, or frankly even the bare minimum needed to function.
The problem is explaining all this just takes too long. I doubt very many people are going to make it this far into my comment... Anyway if you made it here congratulations!
Re: (Score:2)
While it's true this is an llm to copy the comment (Score:1)
The question is is can you get this llm to understand and internalize the Trump fucks kids. Because clearly Trump fucks kids.
And you have to wonder if this llm is running on desktop hardware or maybe Trump fucks kids.
Regardless it's still just an llm so Trump fucks kids at all but Trump fucks kids.
Meanwhile Jeffrey Epstein's best friend, Donald trump, died without ever knowing wha
Their math seems off (Score:2)
2006 is the Freshmen college class. 2008 isn't for 2 more years.
The decline started before the crash
Expensive (Score:2)
2008 is when the country collectively figured out that kids are really expensive and that cats, dogs, and plants are cheaper.
Luckily (Score:1)
A whole bunch of opportunities have recently opened up to US citizens for picking lettuce.
Re: Luckily (Score:1)
You say that as if picking lettuce is a bad thing. Or perhaps you mean it's beneath the dignity of free citizens to perform menial labor. And if it weren't for that pesky 13th Amendment....
Or am I misunderstanding your motivations?
Re: (Score:1)
I assume he meant it's beneath the dignity of free citizens to perform labor and be paid less than they think their time, energy, and discomfort is worth.
In other words, if there's a lettuce-picking job that pays me $200,000 for 2000 hours of work (that is, about a year at 40 hours/week with 2 weeks off), sign me up. But at minimum wage, or even the wage I'm getting from my current job, I'll pass.
Re: (Score:3)
So the question remains. If we didn't have a permanent underclass in this country that is willing to do the work that is beneath us dignified free citizens, would the wages go up or would we just figure out how to automate those jobs so we wouldn't need basically a slave labor class? Or is there a third option?
Third option: Youth (Score:1)
The fast food industry uses a "non-permanent underclass" for many of its low-end jobs: Youths old enough to legally work and young adults.
Summer camps and some city parks do the same thing: They recruit from the college- and high-school-age crowd, and they don't pay all that much.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Not at all. Free citizens picking lettuce on a corporate-owned ranch is the American Dream!
It's better than medieval serfdom was because you're FREE!!! You could even prove it by wearing a giant bald eagle and flag T-shirt while you work!!!
Re: (Score:2)
What does this agriculture career pay and what are my health insurance benefits?
Re: Luckily (Score:1)
Interesting.
All responses so far in fact assert that agriculture work *is* beneath the dignity of free citizens because the pay is low and the work is hard.
Now I assume we're all in agreement that the food does need to be harvested.
And presumably that it needs to be affordable.
But curiously enough, the answer *does* seem to be to import low wage unskilled labor. Is this simply a mercenary calculation that some sort of underclass is necessary for us to have nice things? Or is it an effort to prove by asserti
Re: (Score:3)
According to chatgpt, lettuce harvesters in America are usually seasonal workers who get paid either hourly ($15-$18 an hour) or per head harvested (which comes out to anywhere from $100-$400 a day depending on pay rate and worker skill and endurance). Some farms provide free housing seasonally. They generally don't provide health insurance to seasonal workers, though some might get a year-round deal that would then come with health insurance.
Some farms use machines instead of humans to harvest lettuce, a
Re: (Score:2)
So you're quiting your current job to take advantage of these sweet new jobs that have opened up, right? I bet you're nudging any young members of your family to go into this work as well as it's such a great career choice.
What suckers these leftist soy eaters are with their comfortable jobs that pay well.
Re: (Score:1)
If Americans refuse to work for "non-American wages," (officially, minimum wage, unofficially, probably far less) someone will invent a cheap-enough lettuce-picking robot and then those jobs will be gone.
Substitute just about any job where people aren't willing to do the work for the wages that make it cost-effective for "lettuce picking jobs."
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
If Americans refuse to work for "non-American wages," (officially, minimum wage, unofficially, probably far less) someone will invent a cheap-enough lettuce-picking robot and then those jobs will be gone.
You mean like exactly what happened decades ago since Americans long since stopped wanting to do this low paying work? Oh, it turns out machines don't just magically invent themselves when needed.
Re: (Score:3)
There are, in fact, lettuce harvesting machines:
https://www.agriexpo.online/ag... [www.agriexpo.online]
Whether or not your local farm uses them or human labour probably depends on the kind of lettuce, the market it's going to and the cost and availability of labour. Mostly that last one.
Re: (Score:2)
That's great, super duper informative there.
For starters, it was the above insisting a lettuce harvesting machine would be invented so they're the ones who need this super important info. Furthermore, whether a lettuce harvesting machine exists or doesn't is irrelevant to my own point, that's why I wasn't talking about them in my own post. My own point is that there is no magic force in this world that guarantees a new invention when ever a need arises. That's true whether a lettuce machine exists or not
Re: (Score:2)
Lettuce harvesting machines did in fact get invented when the need and the economic justification arose.
Better? Or are you going to claim that you literally meant "invent themselves" so you're still technically not wrong?
Re: (Score:2)
Me "My own point is that there is no magic force in this world that guarantees a new invention when ever a need arises."
You: "Lettuce harvesting machines did in fact get invented when the need and the economic justification arose."
So are you telling me need guarantees invention? Where our power efficient carbon capture machine then? Where's the machine for all the other farm work Americans don't want to do?
That's okay (Score:1)
America is closing up business (Score:1)
Apparently we don't like immigrants or money.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
That's the thing about university, their job it to teach reality and that means they are discussing liberals teaching ideology because reality has a well liberal bias.
Much better to teach about Jeebus and the America Fuck Yeah version of history where America died everything perfectly.
Re: (Score:1)
because reality has a well liberal bias
Exactly!
For example, let’s examine a 2022 era New York Times fact check reality rubric:
- The inflation is small and “temporary”. The working class is doing well economically.
- The border is secure.
- The Steele Report is gospel, Hillary didn’t fund it, the laptop is a Russian plant, the lab leak theory is propaganda.
- Biden is fully mentally competent.
- Violent crime rates were lowered by police defunding. The GF riots were “peaceful”. Decriminalizing crime is a great idea
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
The reality is that the liberal progressive “postmodernist” Critical Theory hero, Foucault, claims “narrative trumps empiricism”. This makes progressivism unfalsifiable from a progressive perspective, as empirical logic itself is labeled “bigotry” or “fascist” or “colonialist” or It’s bonkers, and perfectly explains the vacuousness of the “reality has a liberal bias” motif.
Now keep in mind that “liberal” used to mean
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:1)
The vast majority of self-identified liberals and progressives do not know who Foucault is nor believe in his theories.
Yet, by some coincidence, they echo the theories perfectly, essentially reflexively labeling everyday supporters of blind justice, capitalism, and free speech “fascists”, “bigots”, or “colonialists”. This is EXACTLY the rhetoric in the critical theory circles that dominate soft sciences and teacher college curriculums. Plus they obsessively buy their books - such as from the 1619 project, or “white fragility”, or an IX Kendi screed. And the teachers? They
Re: (Score:2)
MAGA Logic (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
They aren't real big on thinking into the future. See Solar and wind cuts. See pushing older experienced folks out of Govt into early retirement while firing the young ones - who needs expertise? Let's make these lower paying Govt jobs unstable so we can't get anyone to take them! You can cut off airplane engines midflight and it'll still fly too - for a while.
Let's ignore clean air\water regulations and get rid of people who monitor food production processes. Look at what they're doing with vaccinations, w
They have no future. (Score:2)
There is little point in wasting time pursuing a high-flying career any more. Im glad to see that this is happening.
By the time students come out of the higher education system we will be 4-5 more years into global socio-economic collapse
and 4-5 more years in to climate breakdown.
It is far better that kids today focus on preparing for an extreme weather future where multiple crop failures and food shortages are the norm.
Having a law degree isnt going to help here.
Re: (Score:2)
Having a law degree isnt going to help here.
On the other hand, a STEM degree is going to help a lot. But I guess that idea is too advanced for you.
Factor in declining scores in all areas of edu... (Score:2)