China Is Sending Its World-Beating Auto Industry Into a Tailspin (reuters.com) 207
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Reuters: On the outskirts of this city of 21 million, a showroom in a shopping mall offers extraordinary deals on new cars. Visitors can choose from some 5,000 vehicles. Locally made Audis are 50% off. A seven-seater SUV from China's FAW is about $22,300, more than 60% below its sticker price. These deals -- offered by a company called Zcar, which says it buys in bulk from automakers and dealerships -- are only possible because China has too many cars. Years of subsidies and other government policies have aimed to make China a global automotive power and the world's electric-vehicle leader. Domestic automakers have achieved those goals and more -- and that's the problem.
China has more domestic brands making more cars than the world's biggest car market can absorb because the industry is striving to hit production targets influenced by government policy, instead of consumer demand, a Reuters examination has found. That makes turning a profit nearly impossible for almost all automakers here, industry executives say. Chinese electric vehicles start at less than $10,000; in the U.S., automakers offer just a few under $35,000. Most Chinese dealers can't make money, either, according to an industry survey published last month, because their lots are jammed with excess inventory. Dealers have responded by slashing prices. Some retailers register and insure unsold cars in bulk, a maneuver that allows automakers to record them as sold while helping dealers to qualify for factory rebates and bonuses from manufacturers.
Unwanted vehicles get dumped onto gray-market traders like Zcar. Some surface on TikTok-style social-media sites in fire sales. Others are rebranded as "used" -- even though their odometers show no mileage -- and shipped overseas. Some wind up abandoned in weedy car graveyards. These unusual practices are symptoms of a vastly oversupplied market -- and point to a potential shakeout mirroring turmoil in China's property market and solar industry, according to many industry figures and analysts. They stem from government policies that prioritize boosting sales and market share -- in service of larger goals for employment and economic growth -- over profitability and sustainable competition. Local governments offer cheap land and subsidies to automakers in exchange for production and tax-revenue commitments, multiplying overcapacity across the country.
China has more domestic brands making more cars than the world's biggest car market can absorb because the industry is striving to hit production targets influenced by government policy, instead of consumer demand, a Reuters examination has found. That makes turning a profit nearly impossible for almost all automakers here, industry executives say. Chinese electric vehicles start at less than $10,000; in the U.S., automakers offer just a few under $35,000. Most Chinese dealers can't make money, either, according to an industry survey published last month, because their lots are jammed with excess inventory. Dealers have responded by slashing prices. Some retailers register and insure unsold cars in bulk, a maneuver that allows automakers to record them as sold while helping dealers to qualify for factory rebates and bonuses from manufacturers.
Unwanted vehicles get dumped onto gray-market traders like Zcar. Some surface on TikTok-style social-media sites in fire sales. Others are rebranded as "used" -- even though their odometers show no mileage -- and shipped overseas. Some wind up abandoned in weedy car graveyards. These unusual practices are symptoms of a vastly oversupplied market -- and point to a potential shakeout mirroring turmoil in China's property market and solar industry, according to many industry figures and analysts. They stem from government policies that prioritize boosting sales and market share -- in service of larger goals for employment and economic growth -- over profitability and sustainable competition. Local governments offer cheap land and subsidies to automakers in exchange for production and tax-revenue commitments, multiplying overcapacity across the country.
Every few years, a new canard (Score:5, Insightful)
Am no fan of the Chinese, especially the leadership but come on.
Every few years thereâ(TM)s a new breathless article on real estate, banking, statistical shenanigans.
If it smells like propaganda it probably is propaganda.
Re:Every few years, a new canard (Score:4, Insightful)
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I am skeptical of any narrative in which a key element is them being very stupid.
Indeed, the "west" was underestimating the Chinese behemoth for as far as I can remember. When I was at school they were producing cheap knock-offs that were selling in flea markets. Then the western industry started expanding in China, lured by the low wages, while they were actually selling-off their trade secrets. Gotta love globalization! Then I was at the university and my professors were making fun of their Chinese colleagues because they were trying their best and it was not good enough yet. By the t
Re:Every few years, a new canard (Score:4, Interesting)
Hybrid economy (Score:2)
That's because China is a hybrid economy, not pure communism. More of their economy is controlled by private groups and people then is controlled by the government.
This is why they have been able to grow their economy so well, communism alone never would have gotten them to this point. They only saw real growth when they began to open up their economy. Where they still run into problems though is where they centrally plan too much, as seen in their real estate and now car issues.
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"One-man show, top-down authoritarian style, interfere in the market."
Watch out, you'll get a visit from the masked Imperial Trump Guard with criticisms like that. Oh, you're talking about Chyna. Sorry.
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The USA has also been guilty of authoritarian production, re: Ship building during WW2.
The USA eventually produced more transports and capital ships than everyone else combined. Then the war ended. The market had a glut of transports, and capital ships had to be recycled.
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Re:Every few years, a new canard (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Every few years, a new canard (Score:4, Insightful)
Which parts of the reports on the real estate crisis and the auto industry overproduction are false? Chinese real estate prices continue to fall despite government efforts and are not projected to bottom out for another few years. The Chinese auto industry has overproduced because the government thought it would be a strategic national strength.
It's easy to label something as propaganda or fake news, but what exactly is fake?
As the current US government is also discovering, government management of the national economy is super hard. The auto production problem is part Chinese subsidies and expectations and part US meddling in the established order in global trade. The real estate problem is mostly an internal Chinese thing.
Re:Every few years, a new canard (Score:4, Insightful)
Chinese real estate prices are falling not despite of government efforts, but because of government efforts. They had a bubble where housing was getting too expensive for the people, so they went to deflate that bubble.
Which is exactly what should be done closer to home, too, but it's never going to happen here.
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People made huge amounts of money off of housing in the USA, because interest rates slowly decreased from the 1980s until just a few years ago. Every time the interest rate was cut, incumbent home owners laughed all t
Re:Every few years, a new canard (Score:4, Informative)
All the stuff about ghost cities and subways to nowhere was false. They were simply build ahead of expected, planned migrations from rural areas to cities, which sure enough happened.
The real-estate market has overheated a bit in China, but you have to remember that the government's goal is to provide housing for its citizens, not to enable private companies to make huge profits. I know it's very hard for some people to wrap their heads around, but low real-estate prices are considered a good thing as long as they are properly managed.
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All the stuff about ghost cities and subways to nowhere was false. They were simply build ahead of expected, planned migrations from rural areas to cities, which sure enough happened.
This is partially true and false. Yes, some/many of the so-called ghost cities have filled up and become vibrant cities. However, there are others that have some people but have nowhere near the planned number of residents.
The real-estate market has overheated a bit in China, but you have to remember that the government's goal is to provide housing for its citizens, not to enable private companies to make huge profits. I know it's very hard for some people to wrap their heads around, but low real-estate prices are considered a good thing as long as they are properly managed.
China's real estate situation is problematic. It is not good. Several large construction companies have gone bankrupt. The problem is that Chinese and Asians in general prioritize real estate as an investment vehicle. Just like the stock market, when the market values go up, prices
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It hurts because it's true. It's a problem for China's over-regulated economy. Subsidize this and neglect that. Oops we overbuilt! Pretend everything is okay and shift blame to Trump or something!
Wake up, China's solar panel manufacturers have the same problem.
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Too many cheap cars. Wow, what an awful problem to have for the consumers. /s
I swear, it reminds me of when I was doing some work at a customer's home and they had Faux News on and some talking head was going on about the oil market being down like it was the fourth horseman of the apocalypse. Meanwhile I'm sitting there just thinking to myself "Screw those oil investors, bring on the cheap gas!"
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The government won't let it happen. Even the US government wouldn't let the big car manufacturers fail, they bailed them out instead.
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China is a capitalist Nation (Score:2)
It's a really simple pattern. Every few years there's a big deregulation push and scam artists and crooks exploit it.
Then there is a large economic collapse and everybody panics, lots of people lose their shirts and the government comes in and bails out the big guys, does just enough for the little guy to keep starvation at Bay and everybody but the top loses a little more ground.
China has a few dif
Housing oversupply is good! (Score:3, Interesting)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/... [sciencedirect.com] ">80% all households own their homes (well above the rates for what have been defined as ownership socities in the West) (Clark, Huang, & Yi, 2019). If homeownership is an important indicator for the Chinese Dream, as it was for the American Dream, it is fair to say that most Chinese have achieved their Chinese Dream. This is a spectacular achievement especially given the fact that public rental was the dominant tenure in the 1980s in Chinese cities, and homeownership has recently declined in Western countries. Along with the growth of ownership there has been an expansion of multiple home ownership. More than 20% of urban households (16% of rural households) own multiple homes, which is also much higher than many developed nations (e.g. 3%–4% in Australia and Northern Ireland; 13% in the U.S. and about 10% in Britain (Resolution Foundation, August 2017; Paris, 2010; Choi, Hong, & Scheinkman, 2014). Residential property has made up >60% of household assets in China since 2008, while the same proportion is about 30% in U.S. (NAHB, 2013; Huang, 2013; Xie & Jin, 2015)."
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Japan and Singapore have some of the world's lowest homelessness rates. You have to be extremely deliberate about being homeless to stay homeless there.
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Not when people plowed billions into those empty properties as investment vehicles. They're underwater and they can't recover.
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Well, maybe the oversupply isn't as great as the numbers would seem to indicate.
When Evergrande collapsed, more than a million Chinese homebuyers were left with mortgages on apartments that were never completed. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14... [cnn.com]
This does not speak of a healthy home buyer market.
The CEO of rivian (Score:2, Interesting)
The other things were heavily implied to be super cheap labor and the ability to pollute.
It is tough to compete with slave Labor, poisoned groundwater and cancer villages.
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And state subsidies. And cheap + unsafe battery designs.
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None of which is true. Labour costs in China are rising as their society comes up to Western standards of living and incomes, and besides labour costs are only a small component of the overall manufacturing cost. They have quite strict environmental protection laws too, at a time when the US is weakening its. You can't even build a factory within X km of a protected river now, no matter how much you promise not to release any pollution.
No, the reason the Chinese are able to keep costs down is simple: econom
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Or, maybe they've decided to monetize the data? (Score:2)
Chinese cars aren't all crap... (Score:2)
Despite the reputation that some brands have (well deserved in some cases *cough*LDV*cough*) there are Chinese cars that are actually good from brands like BYD and MG
The world needs to stop being scared of Chinese stuff (cars and otherwise), let them sell all their products and let the free market sort it out. If consumers choose to buy a BYD or an MG or whatever over a Ford or a Chevy or a Toyota or a Hyundai, so be it.
Re:Chinese cars aren't all crap... (Score:4, Insightful)
Just free trade with a dictatorship which has control over literal slavers doing phonescams doing double digit of Billions of damage, sponsors regular cyberattacks and ransomware doing triple digit Billions of damage, which has suppressed wages with a three decade long campaign to buy foreign debt. What's the worst that can happen which is so much worse than it already is?
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If China (and "made in China" products) are bad we should stop allowing any of them in. Either we we should allow all Chinese products to be sold and let the free market sort it out or we should completly block all Chinese products. None of this "some Chinese products are OK but others are not" stuff.
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TCL TVs are made in China by a Chinese company
MG cars are made in China by a Chinese company
Both are made under the same conditions (potential slave labor, bad stuff the Chinese government is doing etc) so either both should be banned or both should be allowed in under the same conditions.
Either you say no to all Chinese-owned products or you say yes to all Chinese owned products, none of those "some are OK, some are not" crap.
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Both TCL and MG are PRC companies so yes I am talking about PRC.
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The one which threatened the other one with nukes if they rename their country.
Roundabout protectionism (Score:3)
Rather than letting the Yuan rise, Chinese getting sweet deals on a centrally planned glut of EVs suits Xi more.
Unfortunately a lot of that glut is trash because its produced without sufficient market discipline. They can do better, and will for the major export brands, but what's the point?
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China might make some trash but they definitely have care manufacturing figured out.
Fastest EV? The Yangwang U9 https://www.topgear.com/car-ne... [topgear.com]
Fastest EV around the Nueburgring? Xiaomi SU7 Ultra https://www.topgear.com/car-ne... [topgear.com]
This is 1970s Japan and the USA all over again.
This is the Chinese Innovation Ecosystem (Score:5, Insightful)
This is how the cycle goes. The central government gives direction on broad technologies and industries it wants to promote. Local and regional government investment funds and private capital flood the market to support dozens if not hundreds of startups not just to make money but to demonstrate commitment to the central government's vision. You create a hyper-cutthroat market (described by one scholar as a massive gladiatorial game) with rapid advancement and tremendous innovation albeit at a cost of substantial waste in terms of capital wasted on unprofitable, excess capacity that the domestic economy can absorb. These firms then flood the global market at cut-rate prices to try and survive but bankrupting all non-Chinese firms on the market in the process, leaving China dominant in the market. In the meanwhile, you get to a point where inevitably, most of those firms go bankrupt or consolidate into a few winners which the government puts into a "gilded cage." These firms are national champions promoted and protected by the central government in exchange for supporting government priorities and initiatives.
We've seen this in multiple markets, from microelectronics to e-VTOL to drones and now EV's. With EV's, China had at one point over 200 brands fighting tooth and nail. In the end, only a few will survive, but they will be much stronger with tremendous scale. That's what we're seeing now is the inevitable culling down to a few national champions like BYD.
Too bad the US can't get these cars (Score:2)
China is also dumping excess production on the rest of the world. Lots of people have access to good cars at good prices.
I'd love to see these come to the US but our protectionist policies only allow us to buy expensive sub-standard EVs from US manufacturers.
These cars are available in Mexico (and maybe soon Canada). I'd love to buy one and import it to the US as a used car at a much lower tariff.
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Do something the robots can't do - raise a family.
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I seriously doubt you're going to see this happen at any meaningful level in my lifetime, or yours.
I'd advise you to NOT count on it....and do what you can to either get a good job you can advance, in, don't take on unnecessary debt...or work hard, sacrifice and do something entrepreneurial.
Re:We are so screwed (Score:4, Funny)
For that you would want to focus on free energy and food replicators because once you have that, there's not much reason to work anymore.
No matter what, you're still going to need someone in a red shirt to duck into the circuit bays and reverse the polarity.
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"there's not much reason to work anymore"
people will find ways to pass the time and many will likely do or learn things that are novel, exciting or perhaps even useful.
most of us need or crave stimulation.
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a lot of careers & companies started as hobbies
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is not all my brain & body needs
Re:We are so screwed (Score:5, Insightful)
Everybody in society must [...]
Solutions starting with "everybody in society must" have a long and celebrated tradition of going immediately (and often horrifically) pear-shaped, as it inevitably turns out that most of everybody doesn't want to, and therefore won't, and in many cases, can't.
For examples, see the Soviet Union's Communism, China's Great Leap Forward, the Khmer Rouge's agricultural collectivism, North Korea's juche, etc.
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The NEED to do this or that just to survive is what happens when you have a shortage in SOCIETY of things. When you have robots making EVERYTHING, and power is free(because it costs nothing for solar/wind/tidal power other than the devices themselves, which have no cost because the cost would be "how much power is needed", and generating power and repairing power generators are just a part of the expense of effectively free power.
The problem is that even now, we have too many people who would do NOTHING e
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The NEED to do this or that just to survive is what happens when you have a shortage in SOCIETY of things. When you have robots making EVERYTHING, and power is free(because it costs nothing for solar/wind/tidal power other than the devices themselves, which have no cost because the cost would be "how much power is needed", and generating power and repairing power generators are just a part of the expense of effectively free power.
The problem is that even now, we have too many people who would do NOTHING except for watching sports, but even then, when food and everything else is free, those do-nothings wouldn't matter either. Things only break down when the base materials aren't available to make the stuff people want.
I have a sneaking suspicion the do nothing folks would dry up in less than a generation. Right now we have mental health decay from the roots up, and the top down, and that leaves people burnt the ever-loving fuck out. So, yes, if we suddenly didn't "have" to work to survive, some people would absolutely pull up a couch, dive into it, and not come up for air for years. BUT, I don't think that would be a permanent situation. People, when free to do as they please, would start working on things. Whether that
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There are two reasons for a country to have compulsory military service. One, it has an aggressive heavily militarized neighbour (or neighbours) which it fears is likely to invade. Two, that country is the aggressive militarized neighbour others fear will invade them. Possibly a mixture of both. You certainly do not have compulsory military service in order to build any sort of utopia.
In the military you generally learn two things. One, using tools and learning skills designed to kill people and destroy thi
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I think you are generally correct; however, mandatory military service can merely be a component of mandatory civil service to teach and show people discipline and a community focus.
For some reason, I can't recall which country made me think of that... so maybe it was all propaganda to begin with...
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In the military you generally learn two things.
... Two, you learn to unquestioningly obey orders. That is not really a trait associated with any kind of utopian society either.
To be fair, since military service includes officer training, you should also learn how to give orders in such a way as to mobilize personnel to efficiently accomplish a specified goal.
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It could just be two years of service to the state, and not necessarily to the military. Doesn't seem unreasonable. Some people would even choose to stay on in those professions long term, while most would go on with their lives. It would probably provide some unity for the citizens along with some pride and admiration of the state, ideally.
I may be reaching with that last part, but for some I could see it.
I studied to much history before I turned 18 to actually want to go work for the military myself, but
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So universal college is probably a good idea (Score:3)
There is such a thing as everybody in society must. For example everybody in society must learn to read. Having Mass illiteracy is a bad thing. Everyone in society must have food and water or they just die.
At that point we are just arguing over what we want our society to do.
All three of the examples you mentioned have one thing in common.
All three war pushed forward for the exact same reason, xenophobic nationalism backed by discredited lamarckian ev
Cool kitchen cabinet (Score:2)
Nowadays, that cool kitchen cabinet is made in a factory, ordered from a catalog and installed by your carpenter.
Does anyone whose net worth is less than a cool billion hire someone to make a custom cabinet onsite?
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Yes, I've seen it quite often....household incomes in the $300K and up range...
It certainly isn't only for billionaires......
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This is my latest attempt: Everybody in society must take two college or trade school type classes
Right now "society" is making it hard to even be a student. Did you know it's harder for a student to qualify for SNAP than a shiftless layabout? If they're half-time or more (usually 7.5 units) they have to meet an exemption to get food aid, while we give it to people who simply refuse to work. (That does not describe most SNAP recipients, but of course it is a percentage.)
The rest can be done by AI or bots
Did you get into the bad crack this morning?
Not all our geese (Score:5, Insightful)
Everyone else is fucked but hey, comedies back right? Which is near as I can tell means you can say the n word as long as you don't quote Charlie Kirk.
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The dickators are all trying to out dick each other. Xi knows he can fuck up to a certain degree because Trump will also, leveling the cheating field.
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The hundred 'china ghost city' articles? Now those cities are filled and productive The hundred 'evergreene real estate' articles? They controlled the demolition and saved their economy Now we have the car market articles. CPC knows what they are doing and they are competent and they will weather just about any storm.
Which is it? Are those ghost city filled up with people now or were they demolished?
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Which is it? Are those ghost city filled up with people now or were they demolished?
from https://www.newsweek.com/what-... [newsweek.com]
So it's still bad and a sort of disaster at unprecedented scale but they have also managed to smooth it out more than has happened in previous such disasters such as when the Asian Tiger economies had their crash
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Now those cities are filled and productive
Are you sure about that? Newsweek says from 65 million to 80 million housing units across China are estimated to be empty [newsweek.com]
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The vacancy rate in China is only twice the vacancy rate in the US, and the US supposedly has a housing shortage.
Re:Hey Remember (Score:4, Interesting)
Corporate ownership of single family units is the reason there is any "shortage". The cost of real estate would drop like a rock if you made it illegal for corporations to own single family homes. You see the companies that are looking to buy houses so they can "flip them", all that does is raise the price for homes so the corporation can make a profit. Make it so no person can own more than three homes as well, and yea, even the wealthy couldn't manipulate the price of housing as well.
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Corporate ownership of single family units is the reason there is any "shortage". The cost of real estate would drop like a rock if you made it illegal for corporations to own single family homes. You see the companies that are looking to buy houses so they can "flip them", all that does is raise the price for homes so the corporation can make a profit. Make it so no person can own more than three homes as well, and yea, even the wealthy couldn't manipulate the price of housing as well.
... and that, children, is why capitalism is waaaaay better than communism (;-D).
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Those corporate homes are a result of few good investing opportunities.
Instead of banning ownership, the Fed needs to raise interest rates.
That will push the corporations out of the market.
Re: Hey Remember (Score:2)
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What the hell...? Evergrande is still in debt, they never got out of that problem. What kind of wumao nonsense is this?
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Now those cities are filled and productive The hundred 'evergreene real estate' articles?
Not to call you ignorant, but Evergrand trading was suspended, the chairman was arrested, and the company was liquidated.
Re:CHENGDU, China (Score:5, Informative)
Some of you US Americans are so full of yourselves with so little knowledge about the rest of the world, i.e. by far most of the world, and the hole that lack of knowledge leaves filled up with prejudice and dumb, unwarranted national pride. Which is why a least those of you who fall under that description also really deserve your current imbecile government. Chengdu has been one of the cultural centers of western and southwestern China for over 2,000 years, and not only has Chengdu developed into the economic center of western China alongside Chongqing, but in 2006, in China Daily, the city ranked fourth among China's most livable cities. Authoritarian/totalitarian socialism destroyed much, but cannot destroy everything.
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"hole that lack of knowledge leaves filled up with prejudice and dumb, unwarranted national pride"
America and its people have many shortcomings but given China's history throughout most of the 20th century, Americans have nothing to learn about "dumb, unwarranted national pride" from the PRC
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Maybe true, but what has that to do with either @backslashdot's post or my reply? I'd say it's a classic example of whataboutism.
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The Chinese lack of cultural diversity suggests to me Chengdu has nothing on New York. I find it hard to believe mono culture generates as much cultural vibrancy as multiculturalism. This is also probably why few outside of China know Chengdu where as New York is a globally famous city.
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Some of you US Americans are so full of yourselves with so little knowledge about the rest of the world
As are billions of others all around the world.
Which is why a least those of you who fall under that description also really deserve your current imbecile government.
LOL, they or I may indeed deserve it, but you get to suffer it too, so enjoy your schadenfreude. :)
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Hear hear!
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LOL! I should have expected that one of the racist-fascist self-appointed super-Americans would immediately freak out and expose himself.
And of course, someone who disagrees with you has to be paid by the evil Chinese to do that... HAHAHA!
By the way, nothing you say has anything remotely to do with what was written in this thread. Perhaps learn your own great language before you post something publicly...
Re:CHENGDU, China (Score:5, Funny)
There's no way Chengdu has the cultural vibrancy of NYC.
Plus, every year in NYC is the year of the rat.
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When you have 7-8 million people living in a place where 95 percent can't afford to live near their job that doesn't pay very much, you expect EVERYONE to be friendly? The area in and around "the city" has a lot of friendly people who are getting knocked down continually, but once you get beyond the caution that everyone needs to have in a city, people really are friendly. The key is that there are a lot of people who would steal from others because they don't make enough money from their job to live wi
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There's no way Chengdu has the cultural vibrancy of NYC.
Why? There are many cities round the planet that have as much or even more cultural vibrancy that NYC.
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Why? There are many cities round the planet that have as much or even more cultural vibrancy that NYC.
Monoculture. When your culture is all generated by people who are the same interacting with each other like in China you get stagnation. A city like New York though has people from hundreds of countries all interacting, new ideas and influences abound.
Then you've got the fact that they are a closed society with out proper free speech laws and a very insular culture and you get monoculture countries like Japan and Korea surpassing them in global cultural relevance despite each having a fraction of China's po
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There's no nice way to say this so I'll just plainly say it, all you're doing is running with conservative mythologies about the past. Immigrants always took long periods to integrate, our childhoods were just timed relative to immigration waves to where we didn't see a lot of this until recently. European immigration to the US had died off post WW2 and Hispanic immigration hadn't made it's full impact until more recently. Two to three generations for full integration is completely normal though.
As for the
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Sorry, I didnt cite any sources.
Here's historic immigration rates https://www.migrationpolicy.or... [migrationpolicy.org] in regards to me pointing out we grew up in a low immigrant period and thus have a skewed notion on how long it takes them to integrate.
Here's a link about it being normal for acculturation to happen over generations as opposed to in a single lifetime https://www.ebsco.com/research... [ebsco.com]
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And how many of those were directly subsidized by the Feds? How many of those collapsed under order of the Feds? Not the same thing.
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"early 1900s in the US...There were over 200 different car companies"
probably a lot closer to 2 THOUSAND than to 200
Dearly Departed American Automakers [wikipedia.org]