Are Parts of the World Retreating on Electric Vehicles? (msn.com) 265
Canada's Prime Minister "paused an electric-vehicle sales mandate that was set to take effect next year," reports the Wall Street Journal, which argues a kind of retreat from electric-vehicle ambitions "is spreading around the globe."
Even the U.K.'s Prime Minister "has allowed for a more flexible timetable to hit the country's EV targets." And demand is expected to drop in the U.S., where global consulting firm AlixPartners now predicts EVs will make up 18% of new-vehicle sales by 2030 — just half of what they'd predicted two years ago: j U.S. automaker GM will take a $1.6 billion charge "because of sinking EV sales," reports the Wall Street Journal, "a shift it blamed on recent moves by the U.S. government to end EV subsidies and regulatory mandates... That might just be the beginning of a financial reckoning from automakers that poured billions into new electric models — from sports cars and sedans to big pickups and sport-utility vehicles — to try to get ready for the government-backed EV mandates.
Automakers have been saying that consumers aren't adopting EVs as quickly as expected, and government efforts to proliferate the technology are hammering their bottom lines. GM, in announcing its charge, said it is reassessing EV capacity and warned that more losses are possible...Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies.
Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.
Volkswagen, burdened with massive electrification costs, helped spur the reckoning in Europe when it said it would cut 35,000 jobs as part of a deal with its union. The move sent shock waves through the region's political establishment. Weeks later, the EU launched a "strategic dialogue" with the automotive industry that led to a more flexible timetable for automakers to meet its emissions rules for 2025.
Even the U.K.'s Prime Minister "has allowed for a more flexible timetable to hit the country's EV targets." And demand is expected to drop in the U.S., where global consulting firm AlixPartners now predicts EVs will make up 18% of new-vehicle sales by 2030 — just half of what they'd predicted two years ago: j U.S. automaker GM will take a $1.6 billion charge "because of sinking EV sales," reports the Wall Street Journal, "a shift it blamed on recent moves by the U.S. government to end EV subsidies and regulatory mandates... That might just be the beginning of a financial reckoning from automakers that poured billions into new electric models — from sports cars and sedans to big pickups and sport-utility vehicles — to try to get ready for the government-backed EV mandates.
Automakers have been saying that consumers aren't adopting EVs as quickly as expected, and government efforts to proliferate the technology are hammering their bottom lines. GM, in announcing its charge, said it is reassessing EV capacity and warned that more losses are possible...Carmakers argue the EV business model is an unprofitable proposition given still-high battery costs, spotty car-charging networks and dwindling government subsidies.
Incentive programs have ended or have been pared back across Europe and in the U.S. and Canada.
Volkswagen, burdened with massive electrification costs, helped spur the reckoning in Europe when it said it would cut 35,000 jobs as part of a deal with its union. The move sent shock waves through the region's political establishment. Weeks later, the EU launched a "strategic dialogue" with the automotive industry that led to a more flexible timetable for automakers to meet its emissions rules for 2025.
Just speculating. (Score:5, Insightful)
I wonder if this has anything to do with the general lack of open positions, leaving people facing fears of income stability and reigning in discretionary spending.
Maybe that few-years-old gas-powered car that is still perfectly functional is preferable to a pricey upgrade to a shiny new car with fewer gas stations and longer refuel times.
The emotional satisfaction of living an environmentally-friendly lifestyle is going to take second seat to practical realities, especially during uncertain economic times.
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Just posted something on a similar vein, but way longer :D
I too think this is the issue - the global economy never did recover entirely from the last crash and there's a feeling it's going down the shitter again real soon...
GDP portions (Score:2)
We are seeing the first wave of GDP reallocation now that most of the industrialized countries, and including countries outside that (China, India, Brazil and Indonesia) facing a declining number of actively working persons.
The above basic needs spending on luxury items from government tax revenue, consumers, and public/private/corporate debt-financed is slowing.
Getting other countries to pay to subsidize you country's social programs is more difficult and forcing countries to choose between social spending
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Maybe that few-years-old gas-powered car that is still perfectly functional is preferable to a pricey upgrade to a shiny new car
No. That would explain a general lack of new car sales, but that's not what's happening. It is only EV sales that are stagnating. People are still buying gas cars.
EV sales are booming in China. A big reason is much lower prices. In China, EVs are cheaper than equivalent ICE cars. That is also true in Southeast Asia, which imports EVs from China. But the West restricts EV imports, so the prices are much higher.
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China is so heavily subsidized and pressured to create sales that many manufacturers fake sales or just 'buy' their own cars and let them rot in fields.
Not to mention some ride sharing services that didn't pan out. There are thousands upon thousands of barely used EVs rotting over there.
That is as much a bubble over there as AI is in the west. I am confused as to why China is consrantly brought up as a positive example.
Re: Just speculating. (Score:5, Informative)
In this case, because it demonstrates that the price is the main issue.
I've worked for Mercedes-Benz and I saw this coming years ago (you can find my posts on that on /.). They had a decade to prepare, but the internal culture of established German car companies attributes status to how well you know engines. They have a ton of managers who came to power based on their knowledge of ICE.
But the new world is driven by software, much more than hardware. And when I left in 2007 or so, the IT corner was where you ended up if you failed at car knowledge. That that attitude would hamper them could be seen coming yeaes in advance. A heavy dose of NIH combined with denial is also pretty much par for the course in Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen for every new development.
And that goes double for foreign inventions.
They brought this upon themselves but they'll lobby their way out of it. Just like oil. In the end the taxpayer will buy all the shares once all profit has been drained.
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I don't disagree, but I do like my EQA, and think 330 miles summer range is pretty good, actually.
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Yep and it was not helped by a chancellor that wanted the nineties to continue forever.
Re:Just speculating. (Score:5, Insightful)
THe fact that not only you and many other Americans say this to yourselves, but US auto industry folks do as well, is why you are going to lose ex-US markets completely.
Just as a reminder, the US automakers benefited from almost total immunity from bearing the costs of their externalities, plus multiple bailouts over decades, plus literal fucking wars fought to keep their vehicles fuelled.
China has used state power to kickstart its EV industry and get it up the S-curve, no doubt, but saying blah blah subsidies while ignoring what China actually really did is going to destroy the US auto industry outside the US. In a decade, unless policy changes, it'll be like visiting Cuba and staring at the quaint vehicles on the road, wondering how people put up with it.
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Just as a reminder, the US automakers benefited from almost total immunity from bearing the costs of their externalities, plus multiple bailouts over decades, plus literal fucking wars fought to keep their vehicles fuelled.
And so much more. Laws were created at the behest of the auto industry. People are often banned from he freedom of doing something as natural as crossing the road. Zoning laws have made it more or less impossible to build cities that are not dependent on cars. And if states get out of han
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They do that in the UK too. It's been over-hyped, as with most stories about China.
I bought my last car "pre reg", meaning that the dealer bought it and registered the car in their name, and I bought it "second hand" with only a few kilometres on the clock. And when I got it, the dealer hadn't even bothered to register it to themselves, so I am the first and only owner.
It's just the way they discount new cars to fudge the numbers, very very common here. They can shift sales into different months, deal with
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We do the same thing with light trucks [wikipedia.org], yet they still sell quite well domestically, despite the higher price. ... maybe price isn't the only determining factor?
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I would also assume that cities in China are both large and (very) densely populated. ICE vehicles may sound way better than EVs, ICE does a lot worse regarding smell in comparison. So ,more people using EVs in China will have a directly noticeable uplift in air quality in those cities. And it will give lots of people a big reprieve in how they experience their health issues.
Noise pollution is also a large advantage of EVs, especially in (very) densely populated areas. The "rumble" of tires rolling over asp
Or they are just too expensive (Score:5, Insightful)
We have 2 cars. A 2009 with 90k miles on it and a 2014 with around 30k miles on it (IIRC, wife's car). We are the original owners and we only had 2 repairs due to drivetrain issues over all that time. The older car has a couple of glitches with the infotainment system but I could replace it with a few hundred dollars if it really bothered me.
Other than that both cars get us perfectly from point A to point B, with plenty of fast refueling options along the way. The annual maintenance is usually under $100/y, maybe $300 if you average tires, breaks, and the occasional faulty sensor. Other than the cars starting to look less fresh, we don't feel the need to upgrade.
Replacing either car would cost us at the very least $25k and a bump in insurance premium, and having to deal with the horrendous dealership experience.
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Nope, not true. We don’t have an infinitely-growing fleet. It’s like a house purchase chain — there’s a start and an end. Someone buys a new car (whatever the drive train), sells their old car, which someone else buys, and they sell their old car in turn, which someone else buys, but it doesn’t take many links before you get to someone having a car that’s destined for the scrap heap. *That’s* the existing car that comes off the roads, and frankly, it’s likely
Re:Just speculating. (Score:5, Insightful)
Electric vehicles are one of those things that are a really good idea in theory but out in the real world they are just simply unworkable.
And yet, the situation is neither simple nor unworkable.
(1) The combined profits of the major European and American oil companies were $200 billion in 2022. They are not going to just give up and go away. They are working hard against the adoption of electric vehicles in order to protect their profits..
What I'm hearing is that a large corporate body's interests are against the the best-interests of our species. That they aren't going to give up and go away doesn't preclude us from fighting them and making them go away. Stopping subsidizing them will help. Penalizing them for their toxic product will help. Publicizing their manipulation of public opinion will help.
There was a time when dealing with the tobacco industry was unthinkable. Now smoking is a niche habit and mostly if you see someone doing it, they're standing beside a jackhammer, pouring concrete, or operating heavy machinery.
(2) Electric vehicles are too expensive, and a large percentage of the population simply cannot afford them.
I'm sure that people who preferred horses felt that way about automobiles at one point. Prices go down as production goes up. That's how things work. You wouldn't have given up on cell phones because they were elites-only pricing, right?
(3) A large percentage of the population lives in houses/apartments where installing chargers would be difficult or impossible. I have lived in those sort of places myself.
Indoor plumbing and sanitary sewers are also simply unworkable for the exact same reason. There are a whole lot of houses outside of dense cities. And yet. We find a way. The network gets bigger and bigger and bigger and while there will always be a market for outhouses and septic tanks, the number of serviced houses just climbs. EV technology and charging capability has only improved with time, rapidly.
(4) A large percentage of the population lives in houses/apartments that they are renting. Who is going to pay the cost of installing all those chargers? The landlords? The same people who have to be sued regularly, just to get them to keep their properties up to bare minimum standards? Good luck with that.
Again, just because some places aren't practical (today) doesn't mean the technology is doomed. And I'd refer back to the indoor plumbing situation too. The landlord pays. And if they don't provide toilets, well, the price of rent will have to be reduced in order to compete with other places that do.
There are reasons why adoption of EVs won't be overnight, and there are reasons why it will never be 100% of the vehicle market. Given. But this kind of FUD with an opening line of "simply unworkable" borders on oil industry shill.
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Your "pro" arguments are actually very good at explaining why Government mandates and artificial timelines are a mistake. The market will slowly move over to EVs as they become doable. In this case at least, let the market work itself out and keep the Gov out of it. I, as a minor example, have no problems with EVs in theory. I'm just not going to rearrange my life/lifestyle to make one work and I doubt that I'm that much of a fringe case.
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"Go slow and don't rock the boat?" The original story and the responses are more indiciative of political tribalism than anything fundamental grounded in economics, engineering, or psychology.
The situation is more complicated for people that rent than people who own their homes with attached garages, of course. It makes it easier for the latter group to be early adopters as the convienence and economics are quite obvious, especially coupled with rooftop solar. The middle group is people living in condos o
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And yet somehow millions of those "unworkable" EVs have been sold, and the sales numbers are continuing to climb globally. Weird.
Re:Just speculating. (Score:5, Insightful)
And why do you have a PHEV and not an EV? I imagine because if you want to use gasoline for a longer trip, you don't want to have two cars. My best friend has a PHEV and he's able to charge at work but not at home. So it's still saving him money and reducing co2 but doesn't cripple his ability to just use gas if need be.
I wouldn't mind a PHEV but my regular hybrid is good enough for now. It's only got 70k~ miles, so maybe in another 6 years I'll be ready to let go of it, as it's only 6 years old now. There is also the question of the cost of gas vs the cost of electricity. I'm in California, and gas is only around $4.50. Electricity is roughly $0.50 a KwH. Average EV gets about 3 Miles per KwH (some worse, some better). My car gets about 50mpg. I'd need roughly 16KwH to get 48 miles, but that would cost me $8, as opposed to $4.50 for gas.
So gas needs to almost double in price before it's even worth it, and electricity isn't going to stay at the same price either.
None of this accounts for the fact that my apartments aren't going to be installing chargers any time soon, nor the fact that charging networks still need a ways to go. California is doing pretty good but it's not nearly as easy as gasoline is.
None of this even brings into account the price of the EV, which isn't cheap either. One day it will get better, probably, but that's not today, this week, this year, probably not even this decade.
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I have an EV and live in an apartment. I normally charge either at work or at a grocery store. I only need to charge once or twice per week anyway.
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34% of the country is not an edge case. Talk about out of touch.
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I'm not saying progress can't be made. I'm not even saying it won't be made. I'm just saying that for a lot of us, it has a long way to go before we are get there.
I mean, Los Angeles (or maybe California) just passed a law stating that landlords need to have a working refrigerator before they can rent out a unit. We're a LONG way off before we get EV chargers for renters. I won't even speculate on what those EV chargers will cost to use. It will definitely be a lot more then off-peak homeowners have to pay.
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Oh good, a .5C decline in temp when we're already at nearly 1.5C in total warming.
The denialism involved with global warming is ridiculous when the basics of it are so simple. Elements like carbon and methane retain more heat then other elements in our atmosphere. This is something you could even test at home with the right stuff. Altering our atmospheric mix to include more of these elements therefore increases the heat retention of the atmosphere.
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I won't deny it's happening. I just don't give a fuck anymore. When I see all the rich folk and the politicians driving EVs, while stop jetting around the world on private planes, maybe then I'll give a fuck. You won't ever see that though. Rich folk don't need to follow the rules commoners do but they will most certainly try to blame the poors for all the problems.
In the meantime, I'll do whatever I can to reduce my personal costs balanced by convenience.
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You’ve never even driven an EV..
Not cheap enough yet (Score:3)
Answered in the summary "still-high battery costs"
EV batteries have yet to be really commoditized, we are getting closer to the tipping point but still a few years away.
Batteries are too big (Score:2)
Batteries are too expensive because they are too big; supposedly to deal with Americans' range anxiety (a situation mostly created by big oil propaganda). American EVs are big, heavy SUVs and crossovers with giant batteries for long range despite the fact that many people just need to commute back and forth to work. It's almost impossible to find a small, light commuter EV in the US (or even a commuter gas-powered car for that matter). European and Asian carmakers have no problem producing affordable com
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Doesn't the Nissan Leaf get about 60 miles?
I was looking at a cheap used one that was down to 45 miles, I think.
30 miles gets me to town and back so it would only last a few years at that rate.
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Doesn't the Nissan Leaf get about 60 miles?
I was looking at a cheap used one that was down to 45 miles, I think.
30 miles gets me to town and back so it would only last a few years at that rate.
160 ??
from Driving Electric [drivingelectric.com]
To have a range of only 45 miles the battery would have to be seriously broken.
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To have a range of only 45 miles the battery would have to be seriously broken.
Some of the earliest models of the Leaf have degraded to even less than 45 miles of range. There's videos on YouTube of people who have bought one just to demonstrate how bad they are. Nissan used a passively cooled battery until very recently, and the earlier batteries also just didn't hold up well in regards to calendar aging. It's not uncommon to find one for sale with relatively low milage on the odometer, but the battery is still heavily degraded.
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Oh for sure but the reality is that's what it's gonna take for the EV to really take over in the US. We want it big and we want it cheap and we're stubborn. On the other hand that absurd requirement will be met, it's what we do in America. It's inevitable.
For me affordability is the problem all other issues are downstream from.
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It's not just the cost. The range problem is mostly fixed, but, and it's a big but, northern winters are still a problem. Losing half your range because of cold and winter driving conditions is an issue. If the battery gets too cold it can't be charged until it warms back up. So where I live an EV is a three season car.
Where the range is not fixed is towing. My summer camping trip was 175 miles each way. There were no EV chargers on the whole route. Besides the trip the truck also sat there for four days. T
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The cold issue is getting better over time with some EV's around the 15% mark in the winter which is pretty close to what a patrol car loses in the season as well. That's also an issue solved with increasing capacity.
Yeah EV's for towing are not there yet, as for loss when parked most people report a percentage or two per month at most. This is also solved by increasing capacity but that's decades away, there are probably a hundred million cars in America EV's can supplant before we have to worry about tow
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Yes my ICE vehicles lose 15% range in winter. Partly from the cold in general, but also because of ethanol in the gasoline.
I'd say real-world EV experience in cold climates seems to show about a 1/3 decrease in range in cold climates, such as you'd find in Alberta, Sask, Manitoba, North Dakota, etc. Up in the northwest territories I have not heard any data but I would not be surprised to see 50% when it's -40 for any length of time.
As for towing, even ICE vehicle can lose significant range, so it's no supri
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EV batteries have yet to be really commoditized, we are getting closer to the tipping point but still a few years away.
EVs can be had below the media new car price. When more than half of new cars sales are EVs your point becomes valid. Right now it's not. There's more market forces at play than simply cost.
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Re: Not cheap enough yet (Score:2)
Not when oil companies don't have to pay the cost of their pollution. As soon as they do, the cost of gasoline will go up like a rocket. And then EVs will be very competitive.
This looks more and more like a repeat of Japanese carmakers vs US and EU carmakers. They didn't learn a thing.
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That won't happen in my lifetime.
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That's not an EV specific problem though, you're probably not in the market for a new petrol car either.
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No, I'm not. The car I have works just fine. Not due for replacement for a long time. In fact, it is unlikely I will ever need to replace it, given only drive 5-6K miles per year.
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So your comment has nothing to do with EV's, this is something the car market has had to account for since there have been cars.
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My car isn't a status symbol. It gets me from point a to point b. Does the modern car some how do this cheaper? Not if my car is paid off and has cheap insurance. Not like you can drive any faster then I can, legally speaking.
Even with California gas prices, the gas needs to almost double in price while electric rates stay frozen for an EV to be cheaper then a normal hybrid. Electric rates aren't going to stay frozen, so it's going to be a matter of which goes up faster and how long I can keep my hybrid run
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My car is a status symbol.
That status advertised is that I'm comfortable driving something that isn't newest thing available, and that an older car is just fine for my needs.
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Given my impression of the average American, I wouldn't say you and I are good data points for the average.
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It's not worn out. Not even close.
As for your candle....I guess it depends on what you mean, but I find little attractiveness in a "modern" car.
the wrong products (Score:2)
Auto makers seem to be willfully missing the point.
Only a small percent of people want a $50K+++ long range electric vehicle and automakers have been almost entirely focused on the most expensive options possible. They are catering to early adopters. This space is much better served by hybrids (or better PHEVs) and the sales numbers prove this out.
The few 100-150mile range EVs are micro-cars, unsuitable for many families.
The marketing on the PHEV has been underwhelming, but IMO the 40-60mile PHEV is likel
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Only a small percent of people want a $50K+++ long range electric vehicle and automakers have been almost entirely focused on the most expensive options possible.
I think this is really a hangover from the post COVID financial craziness. If you look at the numbers, basically there was a massive shortage due to supply chain issues, combined with people having lots of money from the free COVID money. So automakers quickly figured out that there was no point selling the budget versions because they couldn't make enough of their high margin versions to keep up with demand. They kept focussing on these high end, high margin versions and kept putting up the prices - and pe
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You forgot (deliberately left out?) that when people went onto unemployment, it was boosted by $600 extra dollars a WEEK. A lot of people literally made more money staying at home then they would of made at work.
This also doesn't take into account that, in California, if you said your job was affected by covid, the rent would get waived until a certain date. My mom was property management during covid and was legally required to disclose this information. So now you have tenants making more on unemployment
People have less cash? Concerned about economy? (Score:5, Insightful)
In many countries the range anxiety and charging point anxiety have been solved / are being solved etc.
Where I live - the United Kingdom, the EV infrastructure is just about good enough now.
I think the issue is now down to money.
I've got 2016 diesel Audi A3 - I got it in 2017.
It's such a good car I can find no reason to get a new one.
I look at all my neighbours - some have cars that are 20 years old.
The average is over 10 years.
I look at the cars on the road, there's plenty of old models around, more than new ones by a long shot.
I don't think it's a case of "Sinking EV sales", but more "Sinking everything sales"
There's no longer the cash or credit in the market to drive frequent periodic replacement/upgrade at scale.
There's also not much reason to, if your fossil fuel vehicle is less than 20 years old.
There's totally been a golden age of reliability in the past, where vehicles got so damn good they break down way less often.
I've got no idea when that was, but it's totally a thing.
The second hand car market in the UK is huge and there's so many bargains to be had, why buy a new one?
Why even bother getting an EV?
If you are environmentally concerned, keeping an old fossil fuel car running is going to be more ecologically effective than buying a brand new EV.
I digress. Hugely.
The global economy is screwed and it sure don't look like it's going to get any better any time soon, it's going the other way.
Re:People have less cash? Concerned about economy? (Score:4, Interesting)
In many countries the range anxiety and charging point anxiety have been solved / are being solved etc.
Where I live - the United Kingdom, the EV infrastructure is just about good enough now.
I think the issue is now down to money.
There's probably something to this idea. Here in California Bay Area, at least on the side where most of the tech workers live, there are very few old cars. People have the money to buy new cars, and many of those new cars are EVs.
Both of my cars are EVs. I charge at home, but I started looking at the locations and prices for nearby public chargers. There aren't that many, and every charger costs $0.49/kWh. And that's at Level 2. Fast charging costs even more. If I couldn't charge at home (or at work), then the inconvenience of charging combined with a small (or no) cost advantage per mile would push me toward the gas car. Planning my day around having to leave my car at the charger for an hour or for many hours for Level 2 is something that I would have to rearrange my schedule around. Charging at home or work doesn't affect my schedule, but otherwise, it's a significant change.
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Thank you for your honesty.
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None of this is an accurate reading of the UK market. For example, the median age of a UK car at scrappage is 12 years old, so clearly, the average age of a UK car on the road is a lot less than 10 years. And while new car sales have declined from a 2.6m peak in 2016 to 1.9m last year, EVs are nowhere near saturation and their sales have been growing in both absolute and percentage terms, so an explanation of their reversal in fortune is misconceived from the outset. EVs are available on the second hand mar
Re: People have less cash? Concerned about economy (Score:2)
Where I live - the United Kingdom, the EV infrastructure is just about good enough now.
I also live in the UK and like millions of my countrymen I live on a terrace, so charging at home is basically impossible. I'd have an EV tomorrow if there was an easier way to charge it. There has been talk of adding chargers to streetlights but even then there aren't many of those on my street and I doubt the wiring could take the load anyway.
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My car is no where near my apartment. We have a covered area that isn't next to anyone's apartment. The closest apartments are at least 20 feet from a car, and that would require dragging a line across a walking path.
Clearly not all apartments are equal. Some people even live in towers and part their cars under the building. The was my last place. No charging there either.
EVs are great, but... (Score:3)
...there are still problems.
The Tesla supercharging network is the only reasonable option for fast charging
Connectors still aren't standardized and the CCS standard is a bad joke
People in apartments or condos have no good charging option
Government mandating tech development timelines based on speculation is a recipe for disaster
I drive a Tesla, charge at home and love EVs, but I also see why many are hesitant
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Government mandating tech development timelines based on speculation is a recipe for disaster
Compact florescent light bulbs FTW LOL.
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I've been using the CCS standard here in the UK for seven years and have never encountered a single problem with it. What problems have you heard of?!
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The Tesla supercharging network is the only reasonable option for fast charging
TFA is about Canada and the UK. In both cases Tesla's supercharging network is a small pathetic pittance of the fast charging available. We get it it's the only thing Americans know about, but this story is about part of "the world".
Connectors still aren't standardized and the CCS standard is a bad joke
Again outside America connectors are standardised and CCS provides better charging capabilities than Tesla's laughably last gen technology. My car has a CCS connector, I've never once not been able to plug it into a charger anywhere at any point, ever. Period. It's just not a pr
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Tesla have been opening up their network to other cars. Meanwhile, all DCFC charging networks in the USA are building out rapidly now, not only Tesla. All the companies seem to be in empire building mode, grabbing turf and market share while the grabbing is good. It's like this is the only aspect of EV transition that we're not fumbling.
CCS Type 1 is being phased out, and NACS will be the standard in America. It's taking a while to get that sorted, but it's happening. And I should note, NACS is basically ju
Legacy auto is clueless (Score:4, Interesting)
Legacy auto (GM, Ford, Toyota, VW, etc.) has been slow to develop EVs and their offerings are expensive and not that compelling a purchase.
They have been dragging their feet since the beginning.
OTOH, Korean and Chinese automakers have gone all in on EVs and have strong and increasing sales of desirable cars.
Tesla was an early entrant but has been damaged by Musks politics and is suffering.
Speaking of politics, there are countries where adoption is strong (Norway is the best example due to incentives) and countries where the politicians are trying to kill EVs (the US under Trump is the best example).
However, the economics of EVs are compelling and as costs continue to decline, adoption will continue to increase in spite of politics.
The TCO for EVs has been favorable for years and as people slowly realize this, adoption will continue to increase.
I don't know what will happen to legacy automakers. They continue to lag. Will they get their act together?
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Yeah this is basically it. I think the existing car companies really have no idea how to compete with China though. They thought they'd just be doing the Tesla playbook - make a bunch of high end premium cars that are EVs, do that until volumes ramp up, and then use that to slowly move down into cheaper cost tiers. They likely thought they had at least a decade of this, with big fat margins from the premium line to pay for it.
China is speed running this whole process, and Korean isn't doing too badly either
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The transition to EVs is following the standard "S curve" adoption pattern of all technology.
Once you get past 10% of the market, it takes off at a rapid rate.
Legacy auto is under the delusion that adoption would be linear.
They are caught with their pants down.
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The transition to EVs is following the standard "S curve" adoption pattern of all technology.
Some but hardly all technology. Many things never become as popular as the hype predicts. That is actually pretty common.
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The S curve is well documented for technology.
This includes smartphones, social media, HDTV, MP3 player, Digital camera, Internet, cell phone, pc, video games, microwave, etc.
There may be some fringe products which fail but EVs are hardly a fringe product.
https://riskandwellbeing.com/w... [riskandwellbeing.com]
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Beg to differ a bit: while GM made some missteps, particularly in handing the VOLTEC technology over to their PRC subsidiary and dropping it in North America, they took their time to develop a well-engineered and manufacturable EV platform for the next 10-15 years. The problem is their executive team is now living in fear of what a fascist regime could do to them if they don't toe the line and that has given the anti-progress faction at GM operations HQ the chance to counterattack and put anchors on EV mark
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Legacy auto early attempts at EVs were pathetically stupid.
Recently they are improving.
However, Stellantis just announced that they were investing $13 billion in new ICE cars (and no EVs) so they are still at the top of the clueless scale.
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Auto industry analysts and enthusiasts alike have a hard time understanding how Stellantis is still in business, particularly now that they have screwed up the Jeep line in North America. I wouldn't take them as indicative of anything.
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However, Stellantis just announced that they were investing $13 billion in new ICE cars (and no EVs) so they are still at the top of the clueless scale.
More likely they simply know their customers better than you do.
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It is mostly politics (Score:2)
Speaking of politics, there are countries where adoption is strong (Norway is the best example due to incentives) and countries where the politicians are trying to kill EVs (the US under Trump is the best example).
Quite a few of the world's democracies are shifting towards the right, and since EVs became a partisan issue - there you go. Seems like the same thing happened with plant-based meat substitutes, too.
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Why would I replace meat with fake processed stuff? Better off just ditching meat and going for alternative proteins. Healthier as well.
GM EV sales with no CarPlay or Android Auto (Score:2)
I wonder if part of GM's EV sales challenges are due to their decision to drop CarPlay and Android Auto support from all new EV cars. I have a Chevy Bolt and it's a great car, one of the best EV values. I would not even consider buying the new Bolt when it arrives in the future solely due to no Android Auto support. I wonder if this lack of phone support is affecting GM EV sales because their cars are otherwise good values.
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On the flip side, one reason I'm sticking with my old cars and not considering buying a new one any time soon is because I really like the fact that they lack connectivity of any kind. They also have real control knobs and no touch screens.
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On the flip side, one reason I'm sticking with my old cars and not considering buying a new one any time soon is because I really like the fact that they lack connectivity of any kind. They also have real control knobs and no touch screens.
Can you even buy an EV that is not like a big cell phone on wheels?
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The lack of enthusiasm for EV sales in the US can be summed up as a $7,500 price increase, thanks to Republicans. Anything else is just splitting hairs. The Equinox EV was actually selling quite well before the tax credit got the axe.
"Even the U.K.'s Prime Minister" (Score:2)
As if the stance of a sheep is surprising...
Retreating? (Score:4, Informative)
We have 1 EV and 1 hybrid in my garage. I imagine we'll keep that mix until solid state batteries are a mature technology and there is no longer an advantage to having an ICE vehicle.
Having driven an EV for the past year, I don't see myself going back to an ICE.
Should help with electric demand (Score:2)
The same people who are now handwringing about how datacenters are going to overwhelm the electric grid were pushing electric vehicles pretty damned hard; they should be happy that both aren't happening.
Waking up 10 years from now (Score:2)
There's only one question in my mind: when the United States wakes up 10 years from now and realizes we have fallen 20 years behind in basic and applied science, EVs, public transportation, and re-creating our built environment to center humans instead of machines (ok, we're already 30 years behind on that last) WHO ARE WE GOING TO BLAME?!? SOMEONE DID THIS TO US - THEY MUST BE PUNISHED!!!
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Lets hope the capacity to actually punish will not exist anymore at that time.
Other than that, why not start with a rapist, grifter, scammer and professional liar that thinks fascism is great and an ideal to aspire to? There is one active right at this moment....
There are always some backwards fuckups (Score:2)
They usually have the most "logical" arguments for their retardation and inaction. The rest of the world leaves these people behind eventually.
This would be more convincing if data supported it (Score:4, Informative)
Meantime, in the UK, we see new EV sales records practically every month and market share is at 22% so far, vs 19% last year. Other markets are also seeing substantial growth, several much higher than the UK, and the only place where there's any meaningful retreat is the US, due to MAGA.
EV retreat (Score:2)
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Personally, I think the cost of vehicles is just too high, relative to what you get.
I could pay cash for any car I could realistically want. The issue is that I just don't want any car that's available, at the price that at which it is being offered. I value a new car at maybe $25K max. What you can get for that just isn't worth it to me.
The promise was they would get a lot cheaper. (Score:2)
Are politicians realizing (Score:2)
VW, really? (Score:3)
"Volkswagen, burdened with massive electrification costs, "
Not to mention the fraud costs.
Volkswagen’s diesel-emissions scandal — “Dieselgate” — ended up costing them around €33–40 billion globally, depending on what you count. That includes U.S. fines and buybacks (about $25 billion), European recalls and legal settlements, and years of reputational fallout that tanked sales and share value.
To put that in perspective, VW’s entire electric-vehicle development push — including new MEB platforms, the Zwickau conversion, and the early ID lineup — cost about €35 billion up to 2025. In other words, Dieselgate alone could have funded the whole transition to electric, factories and all, once over.
Or to dramatize it: every euro spent on covering up nitrogen oxides could have built a battery plant instead. The scandal didn’t just pollute the air, it delayed VW’s EV pivot by several years, letting Tesla and the Chinese automakers seize the lead.
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What a bizarre scenario. Outside remote areas that may have trouble sourcing fuel, I would imagine tractors aren't the first vehicles to go electric. Over time I could see prices going down, maybe swappable batteries for farm equipment and then you'd be asking "Can you imagine the cost of vegetables if every farmer has to purchase hundreds of gallons of fuel for every run instead of using free solar?"
Regardless, that's a strawman. The big push is for consumer EVs for which the use case and range is very
Re: The acid test (Score:2)
Free solar? You might want to check out the install cost of enough panels to run a farm. Then add the high price of an electric tractor on top or all the farms other debts. But hey, the solar will pay for itself in 20 years , right?
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Swappable batteries? I guess if you installed them in place of the front weights, that would be feasible, but you'd be swapping them every hour at that size.
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shift it blamed on recent moves by the U.S. government to end EV subsidies and regulatory mandates...
In other words, when the price isn't artificially low, and manufacturers are not required to make the shit, people don't want the shit. Surprise, surprise, surprise.
I bought the shit. And I love the shit. And I'm never going back to non-shit. At least as far as you define "shit".
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I was using "shit" in the most generic way possible. In this case, shit == thing.
I wasn't attempting to make any judgement on the quality of the items being sold.
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That's just saying consumer demand for the product is present but the price is too high.
If someone was willing to buy it if it was $10k cheaper, they still want to buy it.
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Demand at a price that isn't available isn't really demand.
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Law of Supply and Demand in Economics: How It Works [investopedia.com]
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Au contraire. People are fucking stupid. They just do not want to change anything because they fear understanding even less.
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