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China Transportation

China's EV Market Is Imploding (msn.com) 155

An anonymous reader shares a report: The Chinese electric car has become a symbol of the country's seemingly unstoppable rise on the world stage. Many observers point to their growing popularity as evidence that China is winning the race to dominate new technologies. But in China, these electric cars represent something entirely different: the profound threats that Beijing's meddling in markets poses to both China and the world.

Bloated by excessive investment, distorted by government intervention, and plagued by heavy losses, China's EV industry appears destined for a crash. EV companies are locked in a cutthroat struggle for survival. Wei Jianjun, the chairman of the Chinese automaker Great Wall Motor, warned in May that China's car industry could tumble into a financial crisis; it "just hasn't erupted yet."

To bypass government censorship of bad economic news, market analysts have opted for a seemingly anodyne term to describe the Chinese car industry's downward spiral: involution, which connotes falling in on oneself. What happens in China's EV sector promises to influence the entire global automobile market. China's emergence as the world's largest manufacturer of EVs highlights the serious challenge the country poses to even the most advanced industries in the U.S., Europe, and other rich economies. Given the vital role the car industry plays in economies around the world, and the jobs, supply chains, and technologies involved, the stakes are high.

But the wobbles in China's EV sector demonstrate the downside of China's state-led economic model. China's government threw ample resources at the EV industry in the hopes of leapfrogging foreign rivals in the transition to battery-powered vehicles. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the government provided more than $230 billion of financial assistance to the EV sector from 2009 to 2023. The strategy worked: China's EV makers would likely never have grown as quickly as they have without this substantial state support. By comparison, the recent Republican-sponsored tax bill eliminated nearly all federal subsidies for EVs in the U.S.

The problem is that China's program encouraged too much investment in the sector. Michael Dunne, the CEO of Dunne Insights, a California-based consulting firm focused on the EV industry, counts 46 domestic and international automakers producing EVs in China, far too many for even the world's second-largest economy to sustain.

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China's EV Market Is Imploding

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  • Yes it does! (Score:4, Informative)

    by Mafoski ( 962059 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @09:48AM (#65793062)
    BTW: Did you hear China's EV Market Is Imploding? https://tech.slashdot.org/stor... [slashdot.org]
    • by shanen ( 462549 )

      Yeah, and the air stinks, too. Does it help to complain a problem that is fundamental to Slashdot's notion of time?

      There are many stories that should last longer than it takes to scroll straight down the top page... Doesn't help that the real world is also uncooperative about scheduling when new stories will arrive. And substantive discussions are hard work, too.

      The advantage of fiction is that all the noise can be trimmed away. The real world is full of noise without meaning, no matter how primed we humans

  • amazing (Score:5, Funny)

    by hamburger lady ( 218108 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @09:50AM (#65793070)

    it's imploding yet duplicating

    • by sinij ( 911942 )
      What you are seeing is CCP pouring massive subsidies into EV market, where these subsidies resulted in a bubble.

      Chris Chapel from China Uncensored [youtube.com] does a good job explaining this.
      • What you are seeing is CCP pouring massive subsidies into EV market, where these subsidies resulted in a bubble. Chris Chapel from China Uncensored [youtube.com] does a good job explaining this.

        YouTuber SerpentZA also does a good job of exploring the topic, in a less detailed but more sensational manner:

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wvyb9Mp69ew.

        Skip to 8:05, 9:02, and 11:01 to see vast fields of these unwanted cars. And stick around to the end to see some spectacular footage of automobiles going off like bombs. Sometimes sensationalism is useful in underlining the importance of a point.

      • That's terrible, they poured $15.5B into the industry over the course 25 years.

        Wait no, that was the US. And it was Boeing alone they poured that much into.

        The US/Boeing and EU/Airbus have been arguing back and forth for years about each side's unfair aerospace subsidies (that are not subsidies if you ask them).

        • Boeing's revenue is $80B per year, so I mean, I wouldn't sweat too much over a subsidy input of 0.62B per year.

          There's a difference between a market built on a subsidy, and a market being influenced by a subsidy.
      • by caseih ( 160668 )

        I used to follow Chris as he does draw attention to things the CCP would rather we didn't know about. But when he started believing Trump will save us from China I was done. Besides that, a lot of talk about China's imminent destruction is wishful thinking and just a touch arrogant. Our own current form of capitalism isn't working so well either anymore. The CCP will fall sooner or later, I have no doubt, and for many of the reasons Chris talks about. But our western socioeconomic systems are just as

        • Rational and level-headed view.
          That the Chinese are making some good cars, and that the industry is built on a bedrock of Government money can both be true at the same time.
          If the rug is pulled from underneath them- the work they'll have done will still have been done. The bubble will pop, and then they'll produce reasonable amounts of good cars.

          Bubbles can suck for a lot of reasons, but it's not like 2008 made people stop needing houses, or the .com bust caused the internet to die.
        • But our western socioeconomic systems are just as likely to fail also in that same time frame.

          See Austria vs USA in the 1930s.

          Simple rule for capitalists:
          When the systems crash, have the government do nothing and the people will repair the system within days. If you let the government interfere, it'll make things even worse.

  • Planned economies (Score:4, Insightful)

    by sinij ( 911942 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @09:56AM (#65793082)
    CCP put massive subsidies and pressure into increasing production of EVs and they largely succeeded - there is now massive over-production and massive excessive capacity. If not for EV tariffs, this excess would have been dumped into Western markets, severely damaging domestic production.
    • by bugs2squash ( 1132591 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @10:02AM (#65793092)
      severely allowing people to afford EVs
      • by wiggles ( 30088 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @10:14AM (#65793110)

        And causing massive damage to global economies and labor markets. We're looking at the gutting of the source of livelihood for millions of people here. According to the AI chatbot I just looked at, approximately 10.8 to 14 million people derive their income from the European auto industry and around 4.5 to 8 million people from the US auto industry.

        This is why trade policy protects against dumping.

        • I know another guy in the process of fucking up the global economy.

        • Re:Planned economies (Score:4, Informative)

          by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @11:10AM (#65793260) Homepage Journal

          European manufacturers are finally getting their act together on EVs it seems. The Skoda Elroq is probably going to be the best selling EV this year, in the UK.

          We need EVs, we need to get off oil. Some pain is inevitable, all we can do is delay it, which makes it worse.

          • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

            by sinij ( 911942 )

            we need to get off oil.

            We don't and we can't. More so, even in context of EVs - you can't manufacture one without significant amount of materials that are derived from petroleum.

            • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              We will never totally stop using oil of course, but we need to mostly stop burning it for fuel, outside of a limited number of applications. We need to do something about plastic pollution too.

              I'd say that will he the harder transition to manage. Electrifying everything isn't too difficult and most of the tech is already mature. Replacing or dealing with plastic pollution seems harder, as will be dealing with increasing costs as fuel oil product consumption is greatly reduced.

              • The US, however, has PLENTY of oil...so, there's no rush for us to get off it.....and go full blown EV.

                Besides, since there's not the full needed infrastructure here across the US, no one really wants them yet, at least not in mass.

                • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                  The rush is that burning it is buggering up the planet. If the US refuses, it becomes a security issue and we be dealt with appropriately.

            • "There's no difference between using oil to make durable materials and burning it up to make thing hot"

              If you have to lie about what folks on the other side of your argument think you either don't understand them or are just maliciously lying about it. Nobody says "No oil for anything ever" but burning gasoline to move one human being from point A to B is incredibly stupid when we have a better alternative.

        • Bad for you. Bad for me. Good for China.

          The CCP don't care about you and me. Or about Chinese people. Or Chinese corporations. Only about the future of China. Everyone and everything is expendable in the service of their goals. This is just a small item on the checklist. The cost is irrelevant as long as the plan moves forward.

      • by sinij ( 911942 )
        Short term thinking. China could not possibly afford, nor they would want to, subsidize EVs long-term. Dumping cheap EVs would only happen for as long as necessary to kill local EV competition. This is smallpox blankets, only with EVs.
        • by cusco ( 717999 )

          Detroit is doing its level best to kill EV competition already.

        • by wiggles ( 30088 )

          They don't have to. They only have to subsidize it enough to tank the rest of the world's auto manufacturing. Then, they become the only one left, a monopolist in a market with a huge barrier to entry. They can pull their subsidies at that point and rake in the excess profit.

          This is a classic trade manipulation strategy. It's taught in undergrad business classes.

      • With the end goal of there only being Chinese auto manufacturers. Is that worth cars being cheaper for a little while?
      • severely allowing people to afford EVs

        *For now*

        The purpose of dumping like this is to disintegrate competition, as it's not physically possible to keep up with a competitor who can sell at a loss indefinitely via funding from the state or other unrelated business assets. It's part of why monopolies are supposed to be illegal, and what the Chinese have been doing violates international trade rules (which are laughable in their enforcement). The Chinese have been pulling crap like this for two decades, with the explicit aim of making western nati

        • The purpose of dumping like this is to disintegrate competition, as it's not physically possible to keep up with a competitor who can sell at a loss indefinitely via funding from the state or other unrelated business assets.

          Now that you brought this up, let's discuss Airbus, who is doing something similar to China.

    • They probably forgot to tell the companies they subsidized that they were trying to dump on the global market in order to buy a longer term lead. And that it may not work out too well in the end. I can't imagine any other purpose for them propping it up so hard. The US never became a market for these, but the US trade war has had ripple effects in their other markets and is probably collapsing the propping up that China is doing.

    • by zoefff ( 61970 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @10:23AM (#65793132)

      Yes, such overinvestement wouldn't happen in a capitalist society ... like AI, or telecom, or railways, or... Anyway, AI datacenters also try to get as much as possible subsidies, government contracts, etc. They just have to sell it differently to the government, but it all comes down to "We cannot afford a mineshaft gap"

      • by sinij ( 911942 )
        I don't understand how AI bubble is possible, as the source of subsidies distorting markets is not obvious to me. Regardless, AI bubble does not disprove the existence of Chinese EV bubble.
        • I think the point is that the myth of the "all knowing, all efficient free market will always choose the right move versus the communist central planners" isn't really true at all, they are just as capable of corruption, bureaucratic paralysis, glad handing, and generally bad economic decisions all around. Government or corporations it's just people making decisions and reacting to incentives and many of the incentives in capitalist countries can be wildly perverse.

          • by sinij ( 911942 )
            Free market is a representation of distributed decision making, where you have hundreds of people evaluating the data and making decisions. This is clearly not happening with AI, as adoption severely lags indicating that people in general are skeptical.

            I think a bunch of aging and no longer clearly thinking (and primed to believe in AI based on Science Fiction from their childhood) venture capitalists bought into false promises from Altman and the likes, made massive investments thinking this is going to
            • Free market is a representation of distributed decision making, where you have hundreds of people evaluating the data and making decisions.

              It's presented as that and yet we have lived in the era of the "corporate raider", "CEO is king" culture for decades now and the track record isn't exactly holding strong.

              Corporations have become condensed and far more vertical than 50 years ago with far less competition (which is really the controlling force more than decentralized decision making ever was) and capital is more concentrated in a few hands than ever before. The economy turns on what places like Blackrock, Silverlake and the Mag7 decide what

    • Easier to scale back than to scale down.

      Look at it from China's POV, you have this massive manufacturing base and yet in the traditional auto market they aren't kept out by trade deals but the fact it's hard to make inroads in an industry dominated by the Americans, Europeans and Japanese companies.

      Along comes the sea change that EV is bringing and if you're china 10 years ago and suddenly those 3 nations are looking to completely drop the ball. Honda and Toyota focussing on dead tech like hydrogen, the Am

      • Picking nits - "Those other 3 nations" are not command economies. I think you meant "American, EU and Japanese automakers", as they are the ones making those decisions, not the nations where they reside.

        I only mention this because you're comparing a command economy where it is the national government making production decisions, to independent companies in free market economies.

        • These are mixed economies, the government creates many regulations, trade agreements and other matters that affect their businesses. There was a reason in 2008 we bailed out the US auto makers, we as a nation value that industry, for the jobs, national security and general prestige and tradition. This isn't central planners VS laissez-faire but levels of mixed-economy VS mixed-economy. To think those industries and state aren't intertwined in many important ways is naive at best.

          At the end of the day eco

          • Call them mixed if you like, the point is that the auto manufacturers are the ones ultimately making production decisions everywhere except China.
            • "making production decisions" is carrying a lot of water, business decisions are not made in a vacuum, they respond to incentives both from consumers, their competition and the state apparatus. Automakers didn't just decide to add 3-point-seat belt's or emissions controls into vehichles because of their own accord, they were either forced or incentivized to.

              The inventive in the US for it's auto industry has ping ponged between "let's help transition you to a future EV world" to "gasoline is good, big truck

              • Yes, they make their decisions based upon a wide variety of factors. Central planners tend to consider fewer factors, or simply the wrong factors. For example, the CCP doesn't seem to have considered consumer behavior, and thus produced very many more cars than can be sold.
                • Central planners tend to consider fewer factors, or simply the wrong factors.

                  It's extremely shortsighted to treat that as axiomatic and not on the specifics. That type of thinking is again part of why the US auto industry is still on the backfoot in the EV market. It's not exactly like corporations arent capable of the same things you describe, how many examples of failed businesses do we want to bring up?

                  For example, the CCP doesn't seem to have considered consumer behavior, and thus produced very many more cars than can be sold.

                  You'd have to demonstrate that their goal was primarily to simply meeting consumer demand of this very moment and not building industrial capacity of batteries and vehicles and th

                  • In a free market economy, businesses do fail all the time. The damage is typically limited, as whoever made the wrong decision only runs one thing. In a planned economy, the same mistakes occur on a massive scale, leading to massive damage.

                    China's is the closest thing the world has ever seen to a functional planned economy, and this is still what happens. Empty cities built for show, cars nobody wants, hundreds of billions wasted. You made a fantastic point about building out capacity, but as it is a

            • the auto manufacturers are the ones ultimately making production decisions everywhere except China.

              Where is the evidence that auto manufacturers aren't the ones ultimately making production decisions in China? It appears they are in competition with one another at least. Are they subject to some government regulations that require each auto maker to build a certain number of vehicles?

  • by mccalli ( 323026 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @10:26AM (#65793144) Homepage
    Dupe or not, worth leaving this here [electrek.co] as a reminder that no, China EV sales are not imploding. Debunked rubbish.
    • by sabbede ( 2678435 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @11:08AM (#65793254)
      I think you misread the title. That article is dealing with a separate topic. This isn't about sales, it's about production. Overproduction, specifically. The CCP poured money into domestic auto manufacturing, probably in order to dump them globally and corner the entire market, and as a result they built many more cars than they can sell. Even if they sell twice as many, it doesn't matter if they made four times as many as will be sold.

      As a result, there are billions of dollars simply evaporating at dealerships as the unsold cars sit there losing value. That's an imploding market.

  • As intended (Score:5, Interesting)

    by BetterSense ( 1398915 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @10:26AM (#65793148)
    This article clearly is written from a Wall Street perspective, but China is not Wall Street.

    Wall Street fears a "crash" above all else, because a "crash" causes existing winners to lose, which is something that cannot be allowed to happen in the US. But China understands that a crash for one person is an opportunity for others, and what matters is overall progress, not just making sure nobody ever loses money. People losing money is part of capitalism and part of the industrial lifecycle, so a "crash" is not some kind of existential failure, but just a rumble in an evolving market.

    China has a tendency to fund a huge amount of companies who invest extravagantly in building overflowing amounts of capital. Then a lot of those companies go out of business, the whole sector "crashes" (we could also say "matures"), all that huge amount of capital is snatched up and purposed to extremely efficient PRODUCTION which is the part that Wall Street doesn't care about.

    The same thing is happening with solar; from a Wall Street perspective it's a failure because prices keep falling and solar companies aren't making profits. From a Chinese perspective it's a success, because they are blanketing their mountains with cheap solar panels and they are going to achieve energy independence which will help the whole economy. They understand you can't have cheap power and also have extremely profitable energy companies. You can't have low solar prices and also boost profits of solar companies. So what Western articles will describe as a "failure" and "collapse" is actually an evolution of the market to the next stage of hyper-efficient production (also known as low profitability) which the US never achieves because they step in to make sure incumbent interests don't lose money (even if the overall economy or consumer "loses money" in the long run).
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by sabbede ( 2678435 )
      I don't think you're doing a good or accurate job of describing a Wall Street perspective that is not your own, and thus missed the point. Overproduction is never a success, it's waste. Billions of dollars are being wasted as these unsold cars sit in lots slowly deprecating. Tens of billions of government and private dollars that could have been put to productive use. If they were able to dump those cars in foreign markets, it would serve a purpose, but those markets won't allow China to do it because t
      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by Anonymous Coward

        Overproduction is an absolute requirement for a market economy to function, you incredible dummy. If aggregate supply didn't exceed demand, then there would be no price signals and no bankruptcies, and the competition that is central to how markets work would be gone. There is not a major capitalist market that has ever existed that has not had recessions, gluts and inventory build-ups, and this is not only to be expected, it's essential to how markets operate.

        You people are so pig fucking ignorant about ev

        • Overproduction is never a success, it's waste.

          Overproduction is an absolute requirement for a market economy to function, you incredible dummy. If aggregate supply didn't exceed demand, then there would be no price signals and no bankruptcies, and the competition that is central to how markets work would be gone. There is not a major capitalist market that has ever existed that has not had recessions, gluts and inventory build-ups, and this is not only to be expected, it's essential to how markets operate.

          I doubt the EV's sitting on lots, whether in China or the US, are going to end up unused and in a junkyard. But Wall street investors measure success by company profits and stock price, not production of useful goods. Making something useful and selling it at a loss is a failure, not a success. But for the person getting the use of the product that doesn't really matter. China's history may make it more focused on the user's interests.

        • Overproduction is an absolute requirement for a market economy to function, you incredible dummy.

          Yes, overproduction is necessary. But it's also waste. And if you get too much of it, then it's unsustainable.

          You people are so pig fucking ignorant about everything

          Fine words from a coward.

      • Fair points. You're right that overproduction has costs. I agree, I'm just saying US economic thought is hyper sensitive to that particular cost of overproduction, as if low prices and excess capacity is the worst thing that can happen, and dismisses the costs of monopoly and unearned income generation, and other costs that society pays when production is held back for higher corporate profits.
    • Really good comment. I think I basicallly already thought this, but the way you put it is clearer than how I was thinking about it, so thanks!
  • I thought it imploded two days ago. Now Slashdot tells me it's imploding again today? Sounds like they have a real problem on their hands.

    • I expect to see these headlines every day: "Chinese EV Market Is Still imploding"

      Reminds me of the Red Dwarf emergency announcement:
      "Emergency... There's an emergency going on... It's still going on..."

  • EVs catching fire on the roads in China, or going out of control and running people down, scary security can leaks
  • by Koreantoast ( 527520 ) on Thursday November 13, 2025 @10:51AM (#65793198)
    This "implosion" is by design in the Chinese model. The PRC's top objective is to quickly catch up, and in an era where capital was cheap, they essentially decided they would risk overcapacity and waste to beat the West. The central government points at a market they want to enter, incentivizing local and regional governments and private capital to aggressively enter those markets. The government essentially hosts a cutthroat (even by Western standards) capitalist "gladiatorial games" to forge a couple of competitive, tested national champions that the national government would then protect and promote overseas. Again, its wasteful, not even China didn't need 300+ EV companies, and the Chinese government is seeking ways to reduce the amount of waste. The national government realizes that there is debt risk for state and local governments with a lot of this waste, and I'm not sure they can keep doing it in the long run. Yet in the end, the priority remains catch up and take over the market, so they will tolerate some level of waste to take over the global EV market. Same playbook we've seen for solar panels, drones, electronic components, bicycle rentals, etc.
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      No, the CCP's goal was to leapfrog everyone else. Instead of developing combustion engine tech and hybrids in an attempt to catch up, they went all-in on batteries and EVs. It paid off, they are now years ahead and sustaining that lead.

  • Chinese industry is like this. Lots of companies pop up doing the same thing, most of them fail, the best ideas are scooped up by the companies that remain, and a few strong sustainable companies survive. This is not just a Chinese thing. It happens in the USA, too. Most American tech startups fail; 70% fail between years two and three and most fail in the first five years. China will take an economic hit when most of their car companies tank, but they’ll weather the storm better than the USA will whe

  • So now China is making too many electric cars and solar panels, compared to domestic demand. Their solution was to export that stuff. Now we want to impose tariffs on those things, so that global demand for Chinese stuff is artificially depressed. But when China loses markets for their stuff, what will they make with their comically overbuilt production capacity? Not solar panels or clean cars, but weapons. It turns out tariffs don't stop the "export" of bombs and missiles and attack drones to Taiwan.
    • by shilly ( 142940 )

      China hasn’t lost access to global markets. It’s lost some access to the US market, but remember it never had that for cars in the first place, and it had no toehold in Europe until a few years ago. It has rapidly developed export markets for its cars and EVs in dozens of markets, and there is no general anti-China trade barrier going up across these categories. Chinese solar panels and battery storage are driving a very fast transition away from unreliable national electricity grids in multiple

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