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Earth

World Still On Track For Catastrophic 2.6C Temperature Rise, Report Finds (theguardian.com) 176

An anonymous reader quotes a report from the Guardian: The world is still on track for a catastrophic 2.6C increase in temperature as countries have not made sufficiently strong climate pledges, while emissions from fossil fuels have hit a record high, two major reports have found. Despite their promises, governments' new emission-cutting plans submitted for the Cop30 climate talks taking place in Brazil have done little to avert dangerous global heating for the fourth consecutive year, according to the Climate Action Tracker update (PDF).

The world is now anticipated to heat up by 2.6C above preindustrial times by the end of the century -- the same temperature rise forecast last year. This level of heating easily breaches the thresholds set out in the Paris climate pact, which every country agreed to, and would set the world spiraling into a catastrophic new era of extreme weather and severe hardships. A separate report found the fossil fuel emissions driving the climate crisis will rise by about 1% this year to hit a record high, but that the rate of rise has more than halved in recent years. The past decade has seen emissions from coal, oil and gas rise by 0.8% a year compared with 2.0% a year during the decade before. The accelerating rollout of renewable energy is now close to supplying the annual rise in the world's demand for energy, but has yet to surpass it. [...]

The new analyses also show a worrying weakening of the planet's natural carbon sinks. The scientists said the combined effects of global heating and the felling of trees have turned tropical forests in southeast Asia and large parts of South America from overall CO2 sinks into sources of the climate-heating gas. [...] The report projects that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere will reach 425ppm (parts per million) in 2025, compared with 280ppm in the preindustrial era. It would have been 8ppm lower if the carbon sinks had not been weakened. The GCP projection for 2025 is based on monthly data up to September and has proven accurate in the previous 19 annual reports.

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World Still On Track For Catastrophic 2.6C Temperature Rise, Report Finds

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  • I don't think we should expect to see steady progress toward a climate solution, I think it's going to happen quite suddenly after some combination of the technology to do it getting cheap enough and the climate producing enough "shit's getting real" moments for a large fraction of the first-world population. At that point either we'll get our asses in gear and set up oceanic and atmospheric carbon sequestration megastructures all over the planet with maybe a little SRM sprinkled on top, or we'll be too dis

    • We'll be wondering why there are so many starving refugees before we move a millimeter on the climate change issue. Of course, the longer we wait to act the more expensive and difficult it will be to overcome. But doing things the stupidest and laziest way possible is a bit of a pattern with us.

      • There is now only one way to "deal with it" and it is a massive war.

        It is in the making, too.

        A slight nuclear winter leaving 50-100 million in small pockets here and there is how it will all end.

        At least we saw the best years of the huge manatee.

  • The cascading effects have already kicked in. Which means that the more "pessimistic" scientists were right. Or at least more right than others. Those target numbers always seemed a little lenient to me anyway.

  • The problem is not that we are stupid, its that we are selfish and short-sighted. The current problems are easily manageable. They have no impact at all on most of us. In fact, you can even make some money off them and people do.

    There is NO money to be made telling people they are going to need to change their lifestyle whether they like it or not. That Bill Gates can't fly in his private jet even if he can afford it. Much less that no one can use commercial airlines any more. Force auto companies to immed

    • Considering what you are saying we are heading towards a 4 degree C increase, I can not understand how you think even 2.6 is manageable. Have you read anything about what that actually means?

      I can agree that people are short sighted but are you not the worst offender here?

    • EVs arn't exactly carbon neutral - it takes years for them to break even wrt a similar ICE for total lifecycle emissions.

      If you want to get people - in cities at least - out of their cars improve public transport.

      • And what about those of us that buy an EV and then drive it emissions-free for 10+ years? Especially those of us that "fuel" the EV with renewable energy from the grid or otherwise?

        Seems that goes over the "break even" threshold you criticize, while ICE cars just keep pumping out the carbon as a course of normal operation as long as they are in the fleet.

        • Seems that goes over the "break even" threshold

          That is comparing manufacturing, selling and using an EV compared to manufacturing, selling and using a new ICE vehicle. But compared to not manufacturing and selling either one there is no "break even" point ever. If the choice is a buying and using a used ICE car or a new EV, buying the used ICE car will result in fewer emissions.

      • If you want to get people - in cities at least - out of their cars improve public transport.

        I agree. Along walking, biking and land use laws and other changes to get people to live closer to their destinations.

    • The problem is not that we are stupid, its that we are selfish and short-sighted. The current problems are easily manageable. They have no impact at all on most of us. In fact, you can even make some money off them and people do.

      There is NO money to be made telling people they are going to need to change their lifestyle whether they like it or not. That Bill Gates can't fly in his private jet even if he can afford it. Much less that no one can use commercial airlines any more. Force auto companies to immediately stop producing ICE vehicles because every one of them is going to produce emissions until it stops running? Ain't going to happen.

      Suggest that economic growth is a bad thing. That it makes dealing with climate change impossible. See how many people will even consider the question.

      Fine. We’ll be extra stupid and have an even Greater Depression instead to force-fuck a reset out of the economy. Or maybe yet another World War is in order. We always have a “solution” for Greed fucking up. Moar Greed fucking up bigly biggest.

      Climate change? Hell, we can’t even slow progress because stock price. Were not even at the point of Mother Nature needing to be acknowledged.

  • We are hitting more and more negative feedback loops. It will not stop at 2.6C.

    • by evanh ( 627108 )

      Negative feedback dampens. Positive feedback reinforces.

      • Remember when this site was for nerds who knew the basics instead of re enforcement by repetition of "science" media. Doom and gloom use to sell advertising, now the echo's of past training continues on.
  • The catastrophe begins already at 2.0 degrees C.

    That's when our food supply is going to start break down.

  • We can stop it! (Score:2, Informative)

    by Kevin108 ( 760520 )

    We just need massively higher taxes, fewer rights, and a lower standard of living. Are you doing your part?

    • by Gavino ( 560149 ) on Friday November 14, 2025 @06:33AM (#65795262)
      And give up all your possessions. "You will own nothing, and you will be happy", according to the World Economic Forum. The beatings will continue until morale improves. Enjoy your sustainable plate insect nourishment.
    • There's a much easier way. Cut all fossil fuel subsidies, direct and indirect, to zero. End corporate welfare. Let people pay the actual, unsubsidized price, and you'll see things change pretty quickly.

      • Let people pay the actual, unsubsidized price, and you'll see things change pretty quickly.

        Indeed, that would be fixed the very next election.

    • I already have the higher taxes from living in Oregon, and the fewer rights due to this federal administration. Can I have fewer $10B storms?

  • by arcade ( 16638 ) on Friday November 14, 2025 @07:20AM (#65795278) Homepage

    First off: I'm not a climate change denier. Secondly: I do worry about the current US administration that seems to be entirely unhinged.

    However, I think climate change is a solved problem, it's just the implementation that takes a bit of time. Thing is, solar panels have gotten dirt cheap. Battery prices are also plummeting. The cheapest electricity you can get at the moment is .. solar. It pays itself back within a relatively short time period. It's an upfront investment - but the return on investment is so massive that it just makes sense to build it out.

    Which is why China has been doing exactly that for some years now. Which is why India is investing massively. Which is why Chile is building out in the Atacama desert. Which is why southern europe has built out quite a bit. Which is why Australia has built out massively. .. and which is why we're now seeing Africa importing quite massive amount of solar panels.

    Of course, the objections about "what to do when the sun don't shine?" is entierly valid. The answer to that question, however, is batteries. Those prices are also plummeting. I expect to replace the batteries I bought in 2020 in about 2030 - and pay the same price for twice the capacity. They'll be cheaper in reality - due to inflation.

    China is currently generating about 20% of their needs from wind+solar. We only need to go 5 years back for that to be less than 5%. In another 5 years, I'll be very surprised if they haven't reached 35-40%.

    There's of course the problem of grid inertia. Grid-following is nowhere near as good as grid forming. We do, however, have the technology to fix that too. From flywheels to grid-forming inverters.

    Give it 2-3 more years and "everyone" will see that it's solved. Give it 5-6 years and we'll be "on schedule". Give it 10 years and we'll all be surprised that we're ahead of schedule.

    And we won't even need government incentives. It'll just be everyone doing what makes economic sense. Unless actively sabotaged through tariffs.

    • Even if you're right (I do hope so, seeing where renewables becomes most cost effective than fossil in various areas bodes well), running these models does give you the opportunity to plan for what problems may need mitigated before the temperature peaks and get an idea of how effective the mitigations are. In the short term some folks in the ME or Pacific islands may not appreciate that their homes will return to habitable status in another generation but that may well end up the best we can do.
  • Look kids, old guy here. Don't be so hysterical. We'll continue on the current track until I am dead. After that, you can sort it all out. Cheers! (/s)
  • . . . and the secondary dark truth is the massive ramp up to build AI focused datacenters is going to accelerate the warming - 2.5C ? We can do better than that . . . just ask ChatGPT

"Truth never comes into the world but like a bastard, to the ignominy of him that brought her birth." -- Milton

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