China's Growth Is Coming at the Rest of the World's Expense (msn.com) 42
China has contributed less to global growth this year than the U.S. despite Beijing's frequent criticism of protectionism, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis citing new research from Goldman Sachs economists. U.S. imports are up 10% so far this year compared to a year earlier, while China's imports have fallen 3% in dollar terms. Goldman's economists found that the historical relationship between Chinese growth and global growth has turned negative; where 1% more Chinese output once raised world output by 0.2%, the bank now projects.
China will grow about 0.6 percentage points faster annually over the next few years while reducing the rest of the world's growth by 0.1 point per year. China's current account surplus could reach 1% of world GDP by 2029, Goldman estimates, larger than any country's since the late 1940s. China now accounts for 17% of global GDP.
China will grow about 0.6 percentage points faster annually over the next few years while reducing the rest of the world's growth by 0.1 point per year. China's current account surplus could reach 1% of world GDP by 2029, Goldman estimates, larger than any country's since the late 1940s. China now accounts for 17% of global GDP.
1000-lb Gorilla. (Score:4, Funny)
Now lets see what Blackrock has to say.
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I now understand your unexpectedly low living conditions. You're still renting because you spend all your time spouting rubbish on Slashdot instead of working to earn money and improve yourself.
Get off the internet.
Re: The problem isn't China's growth (Score:1)
Nah, he's more like one of those unintentionally funny movies. Sure, it's really bad, but it's so incredibly bad that you just can't look away.
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Considering the generally low pay that you see from most jobs out there, bonuses limited to the executives because "times are tough", that attitude makes sense. Getting a 2% raise when the cost of living has gone up by 8 percent or more over the past year, and other issues like that, then it makes sense that the very wealthy, who keep getting tax cuts, should be seen as the cause for a lot of the misery out there. Even those who are doing "ok" are finding that they aren't doing as well as they were a fe
China is acting like the US now? (Score:3)
Re:China is acting like the US now? (Score:5, Interesting)
Correct, the problem is that China is acting more like the US now.
Not according to the article. According to the article, in the postwar era America was an export powerhouse, but used their economic power to raise the manufacturing capability of other nations, allowing them in turn to export to us.
China, on the other han, is buildimg themself to be an export powerhouse, but using their economic power to undermine the manufacturing capability of other nations, and stopping them from exporting to them,
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OK.
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The postwar era was different: energy was abundant and cheaply accessible. 1 unit of energy allowed access to 100 units. Now that ratio is down to (around) 1:10, and reducing.
You can't have physical growth without increasing energy consumption, and our world is rapidly becoming a zero-sum game, as can be seen here.
So the growth of the US indeed didn't need to physically hamper the growth of other nations. Today's story will be different.
In any case, that's how it fits into my story of the current world...
Whats new? (Score:3)
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Re:Whats new? (Score:5, Interesting)
By the metrics Goldman is using the answer is no, America's growth helps growth elsewhere because they are leaning on imports as a primary factor and the US has always been the worlds leading importer of goods. We make a lot of money and spend it out in the world, thus economic growth. This kindof speaks to what "acceptable" is getting at, it's China's protectionist policies that have kept it from being acceptable but also they don't really seem to care?
Whether that metric is worthwhile or correct is where the argument could be.
Re: Whats new? (Score:2)
The only reason th US is where it is right now is because the dollar is still the world currency. It remains so because you need dollars to buy oil.
And the US will fuck up anyone who tries to change the latter.
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The only reason th US is where it is right now is because the dollar is still the world currency. It remains so because you need dollars to buy oil.
People who complain about the US dollar and oil are people who've never taken an economics class.
If you're too lazy to learn economics, then do a simple search to find out the world's oil production compared to the number of dollars in the world, and that should give you an idea of how much influence it actually has.
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No, it was no different with the US. This is an irrelevant story for the whole world outside of the US, because they have been living in this reality for 75+ years. The only nation who is feeling a new pain is the US.
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Were you there?
Re:The world is ripping off China (Score:5, Insightful)
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If you owe the bank $5,000 you have a problem. If you owe the bank $5,000,000 it's the bank that has the problem.
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Why?? Why not just read the article and become smarter? You don't need to show your ignorance off to the world, you can easily read the article, become non-ignorant and say something informed.
Let's get this straight (Score:5, Interesting)
The point to be made here is that the biggest attempt at isolating Chinese economy from the "West", has made China richer and the West poorer.
One could say, we isolated ourselves from China.
Re:Let's get this straight (Score:5, Interesting)
The West hasn't gotten poorer by any metric. Home ownership has increased. Air travel has increased (means people have vacations, economic strength). Homicide rate has reduced over the last few decades. Long distance communication is easier and widely available. More people have health insurance. Disease treatments are more widely available. Let me know of a meaningful metric by which you can say we're poorer. You can argue that we may not have progressed as much as we could have, but we haven't digressed on any rational metric.
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Your lack of a doom and gloom forecast is going to suffer clickloss because of your unusual thinking... or maybe it's just me and mine wanting to believe it is not as bad as the Late Night Hosts would have us believe.
\
I'm hoping there's an out.
OOOK (Score:2)
The new anti-China narrative has arrived. Did "overcapacity" not have enough buzz? Virtually every single country in the world behaves like this, it is called competition. As always, those that are bigger have more weight to produce such effect.
What Are You Saying? (Score:2)
What are you saying? That Trump is correct and that other nations need to join and coordinate with U.S. sanctions because they also can't compete against China's manufacturing expertise and slave labor?
Huh!
Trade Imbalance never makes sense. (Score:2)
Someone buys a computer from China. They get a computer.
China gets some money. Used to be a bunch of paper. Now it's a numerical notation in a bank.
Sounds to me like the guy with the computer made out like a bandit and the idiots looking at numerical notations are fools.
Yeah, I know they can trade those numbers for other stuff - that's called undoing the trade imbalance.
So how exactly is China supposed to be benefitting without undoing the trade unbalance?
They can't.
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They are buying up property IN CHINA, which is again just numerical garbage. They pretend their homes are worth $2 trillion instead of $1 trillon. Trade imbalance still exists.
To buy property out of China, that would be undoing the trade imbalance. But China hates when their citizens buy property out of China. They call it corruption.
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Someone buys a computer from China. They get a computer...China gets some money...Sounds to me like the guy with the computer made out like a bandit and the idiots looking at numerical notations are fools.
Exactly.
To quote from TFA,
No. Exporting goods to other countries benefitted those other countries because they got lots of goods.
Sheesh. Exports are a cost to be avoided, Imports are a benefit. Exports are beneficial only insofar as they give us (foreign) cash with which to buy imports.
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Goods are mostly luxury. Fuel, minerals, industry and agriculture are necessity when shit hits the fan.
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For the moment Xi is using foreign investment while keeping Chinese poor to snowball the industrial hollowing out of his geopolitical enemies (ie. everyone).
This is not sustainable and causes problems down the line. First autarky for China and dependence and cheap goods for the west ... then when the gravy train stops, third world west.
Neomercantilism loads down sinking ship with cheap TVs, it doesn't raise all boats.
huh (Score:1)
US imports are up 10%?
That's funny, all the Internet experts here on slashdot insisted, INSISTED that the widespread application of tariffs was going to ruin our economy.
That's curious, didn't you think?