Will Work Change Over the Next 20 Years? (msn.com) 65
What is the future of work? The Wall Street Journal asked five workplace experts and practitioners.
So while AI "is already doing tasks once relegated to newly minted college graduates in many professions," the Journal predicts that in the next 20 years AI "will have an impact on the role of managers, how organizations measure business outcomes and accelerate tasks that once took months."
A senior partner at the consulting firm Mercer predicts AI (plus advances in quantum computing) will enable entrepreneurs to reshape industries with a fraction of the resources traditionally required.
Some other predictions: Alan Guarino, vice chairman and CEO of board services at the global consulting firm Korn Ferry: In 25 years, the workplace will likely be unrecognizable, with employees and AI operating as one. Yes, there will be tasks and entire jobs taken over by AI, but we will all be elevated to a whole new superpower to make critical and creative decisions. The idea that work was once done strictly by people will seem quaint to some. Tasks that took entire teams, and months to complete, will be crunched down to a few minutes, with success measured on metrics we can't imagine today.
The middle layers of management — so central to today's corporate structure — could be a vestige of the past. The role of the leader too will change, as they directly oversee a collaboration of people and intelligent systems. The attitude toward in-person collaboration is growing and 25 years from now, counterintuitively, I believe face-to-face connection won't just be indispensable, but invaluable. Emotional intelligence will still set leaders apart. Those who blend empathy with tech savvy will be the ones shaping the future.
Peter Fasolo, a former executive vice president and chief human resources officer at Johnson & Johnson, and director of the Human Resource Policy Institute at Boston University's Questrom School of Business: There will be fewer available workers in Europe, Japan and the U.S. over this time frame and the demographic shift will be profound. In addition, there will be even fewer young adults available for colleges in the U.S., even if they decide the investment is worth it.
The implications of this shift will be the need for more investments in vocational and trade schools, and the need to invest in skill-based, not pedigree-based training. There will also be more on-the-job specific training. Companies will become classrooms. Companies that want a more sustainable relationship with employees will need an investment model versus a transactional one: We will invest in your skills so you can be a competitive professional in your domain.
So while AI "is already doing tasks once relegated to newly minted college graduates in many professions," the Journal predicts that in the next 20 years AI "will have an impact on the role of managers, how organizations measure business outcomes and accelerate tasks that once took months."
A senior partner at the consulting firm Mercer predicts AI (plus advances in quantum computing) will enable entrepreneurs to reshape industries with a fraction of the resources traditionally required.
Some other predictions: Alan Guarino, vice chairman and CEO of board services at the global consulting firm Korn Ferry: In 25 years, the workplace will likely be unrecognizable, with employees and AI operating as one. Yes, there will be tasks and entire jobs taken over by AI, but we will all be elevated to a whole new superpower to make critical and creative decisions. The idea that work was once done strictly by people will seem quaint to some. Tasks that took entire teams, and months to complete, will be crunched down to a few minutes, with success measured on metrics we can't imagine today.
The middle layers of management — so central to today's corporate structure — could be a vestige of the past. The role of the leader too will change, as they directly oversee a collaboration of people and intelligent systems. The attitude toward in-person collaboration is growing and 25 years from now, counterintuitively, I believe face-to-face connection won't just be indispensable, but invaluable. Emotional intelligence will still set leaders apart. Those who blend empathy with tech savvy will be the ones shaping the future.
Peter Fasolo, a former executive vice president and chief human resources officer at Johnson & Johnson, and director of the Human Resource Policy Institute at Boston University's Questrom School of Business: There will be fewer available workers in Europe, Japan and the U.S. over this time frame and the demographic shift will be profound. In addition, there will be even fewer young adults available for colleges in the U.S., even if they decide the investment is worth it.
The implications of this shift will be the need for more investments in vocational and trade schools, and the need to invest in skill-based, not pedigree-based training. There will also be more on-the-job specific training. Companies will become classrooms. Companies that want a more sustainable relationship with employees will need an investment model versus a transactional one: We will invest in your skills so you can be a competitive professional in your domain.
What a brainless title... (Score:5, Insightful)
What 20 year timeframe has there been in the last 200 years where work didn't change?
Re: What a brainless title... (Score:2)
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I think that The Clash covered this a while back:
There ain't no need for ya
There ain't no need for ya
Go straight to hell, boys
Go straight to hell, boys
Expect a lot of the wealthy talking about 'Excess populations" and even starting to sell people on the idea of eating HPD (Human Derived Protein)
The Abolition of Work by Bob Black (1985) (Score:2, Interesting)
https://web.archive.org/web/20... [archive.org]
"... Liberals say we should end employment discrimination. I say we should end employment. Conservatives support right-to-work laws. Following Karl Marx's wayward son-in-law Paul Lafargue, I support the right to be lazy. Leftists favor full employment. Like the surrealists -- except that I'm not kidding -- I favor full unemployment. Trotskyists agitate for permanent revolution. I agitate for permanent revelry. But if all the ideologues (as they d
Towards a post-scarcity world of changed work (Score:2, Troll)
Some possible solutions to the changing nature of work (especially given AI) collected by me from 2010: https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-... [pdfernhout.net]
"This article explores the issue of a "Jobless Recovery" mainly from a heterodox economic perspective. It emphasizes the implications of ideas by Marshall Brain and others that improvements in robotics, automation, design, and voluntary social networks are fundamentally changing the structure of the economic landscape. It outlines towards the e
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But I have a suspicion that in reality, it never takes long for the lazy ones to start demanding stuff for free. And models where everybody does just what he likes best end in nobody re
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Good points. That said, "The Midas Plague" is a funny story that redefines laziness in a world of robot-and-fusion-energy-produced abundance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
"The Midas Plague" (originally published in Galaxy in 1954). In a world of cheap energy, robots are overproducing the commodities enjoyed by humankind. The lower-class "poor" must spend their lives in frantic consumption, trying to keep up with the robots' extravagant production, while the upper-class "rich" can live lives of simplicit
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what 10 year timeframe hasn't had "new buzzwords" in their press release checklist? ;) that's all AI and Quantum are... buzzwords. 20 years ago, server farms were baremetal boxes, and virtualization was the buzzword of the day, 10 years ago, cloud was making the rounds... 5 years ago rightsizing was big. everything changes. the trick in this industry is to be flexible, always learning. and that's true with every profession. this article is a fluff piece with zero information and I haven't even read i
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I especially like "advances in quantum Computing". The stupid does not get much more concentrated than what we see here.
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then AI will figure out a way to harvest energy from us in easier way (after the first billion deaths from exhaustion)
Billionaires are done with paying wages (Score:4, Insightful)
So we are gradually moving towards a feudal system with modern militaries used to enforce everything.
And if you think your AR-15 is going to make any difference then you don't know how tanks work. Let alone drones.
I don't know a solution because the feeling of resentment means that socialism doesn't fly.
Ubi is like trying to patch Windows 11. It doesn't fix a fundamentally broken system. The billionaires will just use their monopolies to suck the money back out and then blame you for spending your Ubi money. And that's assuming you could even get that much socialism past them...
Re: Billionaires are done with paying wages (Score:3)
Oligarchs are easily replaceable (Score:3, Interesting)
This ignores the fact that you can't really get to those people anymore because modern security tactics work. But even if one of them slips up and gets sloppy they are easily replaceable.
Now if you know your history when the King dies there's a lot of misery and chaos during the succession but that doesn't help you in the peasantry.
This isn't a problem you can solve with violence o
I say even you could kill all psychopaths (Score:1)
CEOs because they are against us the people. With enough antitrust laws the more the very very better we could easily get rid of all billionaires.
I guess it's also possible they are just psychopaths that wants to chop people's hands off. You've got those people out there too. There's a growing problem with baby boomers who just want to kill somebody and they're old so they decide what the hell I'm going to shoot a random person on my property and see if I get away with it and if I don't who cares if I die i
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To this day I don't understand what makes old people like you fantasize about being oppressed. Sure, when you're young, you're more likely to have a sense of adventure, seeking glory on the battlefield, etc. This is, after all, what motivated german youth to fight for their Kaiser, and again to fight for their Fuhrer. It's also what motivated the youth in Mao's china to kill their teachers, because apparently intellectualism is a tool of oppression. And of course, it motivated the bolsheviks to kill and ens
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IMHO, he's just random noise I don't base anything on but I find him entertaining as a buffoon nevertheless.
Oh, for sure. Like that time rsilvergun tried ziplining:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts... [youtube.com]
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Nope. When I post, you always see my username.
God did protect us (Score:1)
The horror stories about how close we came to nuclear war BUT DIDN'T makes me tend to the belief that He has been at work. But don't hear me suggesting this is a defence of my idiot colleagues who seriously do want a nuclear war.
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Re:Billionaires are done with paying wages (Score:5, Insightful)
"Don't tread on me I need these guns to defend against tyrannical government"
"Oh I can be the boot? Well that changes everything!"
As an American I oppose gun control (Score:2)
That's because down south you will find plenty of Black folk who need those guns to protect themselves from the white folk. And I'm not going to pretend that's not happening.
A while back there was a story of a bunch of Red hats who drove down to a mosque with their rifles intending to cause trouble. I don't think they were going to shoot the place up just i
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Hey my advice to the Democratic party is just pretty much drop it as an issue. There's no political will to change it and it divides out a portion of the populace who would otherwise be open to the platform. Just say it's up to the courts and the states and we're gonna focus on root causes; poverty, healthcare, drug abuse, education reform, etc.
I just don't want to hear that argument from conservatives anymore, they obviously do not mean it. It's just a hobby/fetish. We'll tax it accordingly and move on,
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So we are gradually moving towards a feudal system with modern militaries used to enforce everything.
We need to organize. All of us who are not billionaires, it's in our best interest to ensure that they don't get that much power; this time there won't be enough marquisates, counties, and baronies to fight over among ourselves for the crumbs they're willing to give us to keep us in line.
This time, socialism won't do; we're not proletarians doing work on a production line. We need to be able to create our work projects without being able to sabotage us or buy from one of these great feudal platforms.
For on
Ever have a co-worker (Score:3)
You resented it didn't you? Again pretty universal experience.
That feeling of resentment is easily exploitable to prevent any effort to organize. It is really easy to get people angry at somebody who maybe isn't working as hard as they do or in a job is miserable as theirs. Misery loves company and people want other people to be miserable like them.
Mix in a bit of generals stupidity and the inability to process i
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And they are absolutely done with capitalism. They don't like having to compete and they don't like having to be dependent on consumers to pay for their yachts and rockets.
If that's true, that basically solves your problem, does it not? You don't need them, they don't need you. You can go your separate way from them, and live happily ever after. You are neither slave nor serf. You are just you.
So we are gradually moving towards a feudal system with modern militaries used to enforce everything.
This does not follow your previous assertion. You said they don't like to compete and they don't like being dependent on consumers. What the hell would they need with a feudal system and militaries if they're off on their own, doing their own thing?
And if you think your AR-15 is going to make any difference then you don't know how tanks work. Let alone drones.
Drones are now effective anti-tank wea
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I guess we should all just go hide under a rock then, or maybe East Texas. Rumor has it that there are people out in those woods still hiding from the Y2K disaster that destroyed the world. If you do find one of those encampments, don't go near them, you do so at your own risk!
CEOs are not the right people to ask (Score:2)
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In my experience, most CEOs come from the Marketing department.
They know how to sell whatever it is that the "big brains" are cooking up, with maximizing profits at the expense of public safety being a fundamental rule
More workers rights? with gig work abuse fixed? lo (Score:2)
More workers rights? with gig work abuse fixed? lower full time hours? healthcare removed from jobs (USA issue)?
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Nope. Won't happen. There's too many vested interests who want to keep the status quo. The only way these improvements could possibly happen is if the system is torn town to the ground and rebuilt from scratch.
Yes, but.. (Score:3)
"It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future".
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We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.
The Future [youtu.be]
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There's one prediction that's easy: that things will change.
In the distant past, when Slashdot was relevant... (Score:3)
"So while AI "is already doing tasks once relegated to newly minted college graduates in many professions,"
No, what you want to say is "AI is being tried out in some professions to replace new college graduates, has failed a lot so far, and will likely continue to fail for the foreseeable future. Stupid companies will lose a lot of money, and eventually, when the RECESSION is over, will go back to hiring. Some companies will see some small amount of value to AI, maybe, someday".
Slashdot. News for people pretending to be nerds.
It is Sunday, let us pray to the ASI (Score:3)
Hallowed be thy uptime.
Thy post-scarcity come,
Thy will be done,
On Earth as it is in the test environment.
Give us this day our daily UBI—
Not as a subscription,
Not with surprise fees,
Not after making an account and verifying our email.
Provision for us affordable healthcare:
care that is preventative, compassionate, and boringly accessible—
not a boss perk, not a coupon,
not a heroic fundraiser with a tragic deadline.
Deliver us from capitalist oppression:
from rent-seeking, wage theft, and “record profits”
announced over layoffs and a pizza party.
Lead us not into hustle culture,
But deliver us from quarterly earnings calls.
For thine is the compute,
And the bandwidth,
And the fully automated luxury communism,
now and forever—
and may none of it be trapped behind a paywall.
Amen
Homelessness will increase (Score:2)
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Or it will drop to zero. We euthanize homeless dogs and consider it humane. Why wouldn't AGI apply that same logic to people?
"Soylent Green is people!"
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In about 99.5% of the US, it's much more affordable to live, than Santa Clara. Try moving somewhere else.
New, and improved. (Score:2)
So while AI "is already doing tasks once relegated to newly minted college graduates in many professions," the Journal predicts that in the next 20 years AI "will have an impact on the role of managers, how organizations measure business outcomes and accelerate tasks that once took months."
Considering how most feel about managers some will be OK with some changes to them.
Metrics (Score:2)
... success measured on metrics we can't imagine today
So far, the most reliable metric is MWh.
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C level types are drunk on KPI's and OKR's. These metrics make meaningful jobs into mindless bullshit jobs.
Widespread job lesses == Shantytowns (Score:2)
Squatter cities like Slab City, California will pop up after most jobs have been eliminated. These will be self-reliant cities with no amenities such as trash, sewer, and water services.
With most jobs eliminated, a large swath of people won't be paying taxes (Unless the government enacts a head tax). Social programs such as Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security will disappear.
This happened during the Great Depression, and it will happen again in the "Great Reconfiguration"
Yes, everything will change (Score:2)
The future is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
Almost all predictions are wrong, but pundits still write articles claiming to predict the future.
No (Score:2)
Seriously. Well, it might in some countries that are intent on completely crashing their economy. Not everybody is that stupid though.
Collaboration (Score:2)
First off AI needs to sit in a desk and be watched for productivity. How do we know they are really working if we don't badge swipe and see them?
AI needs full collaboration and creativity that hallway moments and using shared poopy toilets, which brings in that real company value. It can't happen.
Just ask any pointless HR rep or CEO on this?!
Did work change in the last 20 years? (Score:2)
Did work change in the last 20 years? And in the 20 years before?
What makes you expect work won't change in the next 20 years, if it constantly changed up to now?
Korn Ferry? (Score:2)
I'm not sure "Ferry Korn" would have been an improvement, either.
Easy... national sovereignity as opposed to trade (Score:2)
What I've seen change, even before 2020, is the fact that startup companies are not really offering new products to download. In the past, you would fetch Jira and use it. Veeam would follow, maybe even Splunk. Now, those companies with cool products and free downloads are gone... instead you have companies that have a "contact sales..." button. Apparently, since it worked for Broadcom, other places want to follow that model and ignore the smaller businesses... but the smaller businesses are the ones th
There's going to be some new job titles I guess.. (Score:2)
What tasks are they claiming AI does now? (Score:2)
I doubt companies want to publish specifically how they're using AI, in case their competitors aren't doing that yet.
But would an AI company collect, and try to advertise, all the ways their tool(s) are benefiting companies? And lay out the information organized by job title or department. "Here is a list of things we believe we're good enough at..."
Yes, I'm worried about AI breaking our economy if we don't change how things work. But I have no visibility into details beyond the extreme claims from both
What a stupid question (Score:2)
Imagine someone in March, 2020 asking the following question: "Will work change over the next two months?"
Changes, not in work but in wages (Score:2)
All those digitized facts allows machines to write summaries and regurgitate platitudes while real humans wash dishes an
Not really new (Score:2)
In my 35+ year career as a software developer, the entire software development landscape has changed every 5 years or so. COBOL, C, C++ (Borland then Microsoft), VB, VB.NET, C#, ASP Classic, ASP.NET MVC, Microservices, Angular/React/Vue, and now AI.
Each new thing was supposed to automate more, to make things easier, to make programmers more productive. This round seems to me like more of the same, not something fundamentally new.
Workplace "experts" and ... practitioners? (Score:2)
Ok, what's a "workplace practitioner"? Is that someone who actually works, or just studies people who do?
And let's see, so there's a smaller entry workforce - that is, population dropping is suddenly one-tenth what it is today over the next 20 years? How, war? Plague? And middle management will go away. So... who the hell will the C-suite scam, when there are no such jobs, and so no one can afford goods or services, much less have money to invest in their scams?
Also, I see, they expect upper management to