Life in a Shrinking Japan (japantimes.co.jp) 38
Japan's demographic transformation is no longer a distant forecast but an accelerating reality, and the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research now estimates the country's population will fall to roughly 100 million by 2050 -- more than 20 million fewer people than today.
The share of residents aged 65 and over stood at 29.4% as of September and is expected to reach 37.1% by midcentury. The dependency ratio -- children and older adults supported by every 100 working-age people -- is projected to rise from 68.0 to 89.0, meaning each working-age person will effectively support one dependent.
Akita Prefecture is currently offering a preview of this future. Its population fell 1.93% year over year as of November 1, the steepest decline of any prefecture, and more than 40% of its residents are already 65 or older. By 2050, Akita's population is projected to drop to around 560,000, roughly 60% of its current size. Japan's total fertility rate fell for the ninth consecutive year in 2024, declining to 1.15 from 1.2. A health ministry survey found around 319,000 babies were born in the first half of 2025, more than 10,000 fewer than the same period last year -- a pace that could put the full-year total at a record low.
The share of residents aged 65 and over stood at 29.4% as of September and is expected to reach 37.1% by midcentury. The dependency ratio -- children and older adults supported by every 100 working-age people -- is projected to rise from 68.0 to 89.0, meaning each working-age person will effectively support one dependent.
Akita Prefecture is currently offering a preview of this future. Its population fell 1.93% year over year as of November 1, the steepest decline of any prefecture, and more than 40% of its residents are already 65 or older. By 2050, Akita's population is projected to drop to around 560,000, roughly 60% of its current size. Japan's total fertility rate fell for the ninth consecutive year in 2024, declining to 1.15 from 1.2. A health ministry survey found around 319,000 babies were born in the first half of 2025, more than 10,000 fewer than the same period last year -- a pace that could put the full-year total at a record low.
Will they print money? (Score:1)
"each working-age person will effectively support one dependent."
How much work does it take to press keys to create money? If the quantity theory is correct, why isn't Japan already a hyperinflationary failed state with its 230% debt-to-GDP ratio?
Re:Will they print money? (Score:5, Interesting)
1) Japan does not maintain a large military. They rely primarily on the US for protection.
2) Japan's system of government is highly socialist. This allows the demographics to more easily adapt.
3) People in Japan are not as materialistic as what we are used to in the US. SImply put, they don't need as much shit to be happy.
4) They have deflation, which keeps people happy regardless of macroeconomic foibles.
5) Japanese people are much more willing to live with multiple generations under a single roof.
Japan is not socialist (Score:5, Informative)
Japan's government itself is not socialist. They have a corporatist economy, most prominently featured by Keiretsus. The other things you mentioned are true, and people there do live in a way that Americans aren't used to - like the multiple generations under one roof. But the government - you have an emperor, who's now a titular monarch, and an elected government, which may sometimes be Center-Left, sometimes Center-Right.
Also, on the military, Japan has not only been spending more, but they've also been more active outside their shores. They've been active in Quad - the 4 nation alliance of US, Japan, Australia and India, and some years ago, their navy was having joint naval exercises w/ India in the Indian Ocean. Actually, this alliance Quad is one where all 4 countries pull their weight in terms of providing defense firepower, as opposed to NATO, whose members have to be begged to spend >5% of their GDP on defense. Although Trump has needlessly soured relations w/ India in this alliance by a lot of things he did this year
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1) Japan spends less half the rate the US does. 1.4% GDP versus 3.4%. That's still significantly more than Austria (1.0) and Brazil (1.0) and in between Belgium (1.3) and Portugal (1.5). I would say Japan's military is near average for a developed nation, and consistent with their politics of territorial disputes.
2) I'm not sure I understand what you mean here. Clearly private ownership and market-based economics dominate Japan's private sector and is openly supported by their government. And labor laws in
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They've been printing money for like the last 30 years. The way they've been doing it is via having negative effective interest rates. Its already so ingrained in the global financial system that it caused a problem called the "yen carry trade unwind" when they tried to turn it off.
Re: Will they print money? (Score:1)
easy - the quantity theory of money is wrong.
Re: Will they print money? (Score:2)
Can you please tell that to politicians who use it cynically to press peoples' emotional buttons everytime they have some other agenda - "we can't do $Foo because there's just not enough money"?
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Regardless of the mechanism, they will be taking their GDP and directing it to taking care of the elderly. That can be as simple as taxes on wages, with the proportion being roughly one person's contributions is enough to cover the expenses of another person. Or it can mean that someone will be dedicating most of their time towards caring for a family member. You don't have to actually print any more money for this to occur, and it's probably better if you don't muddy the waters doing so.
Re:Keep voting.... (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not inflation or housing costs causing birthrates to decline.
Housing in places like Akita Prefecture where birthrates are falling the fastest is super cheap. In rural areas, they will literally give you a free house. Japan as a whole has mostly experienced deflation over the last 30 years.
Re: (Score:1)
Re:Keep voting.... (Score:5, Informative)
Any welfare state? The places with the highest birthrates have no welfare state to speak of. The facts simply don't conform to your ideologically driven preconceived notions.
The highest birthrates in the world are in countries like Chad and the Central African Republic (some of the poorest countries in the world). The people living in those countries receive no welfare or government support because their governments are not wealthy enough to provide welfare programs even if they wanted to. The most generous welfare states in the world are in Scandinavia and Middle Eastern petrostates where birthrates are below replacement.
The driver of birthrates is really quite simple: when people are given a choice, most choose to have fewer (or no) babies. I don't care how much money you have- raising kids properly is hard and involves a lot of personal sacrifice. I'm well off. I can afford to have more kids, but I don't want more than the two I have. Even if you gave me a billion dollars, that wouldn't change things. I'd still have to do all the hard work of raising them if I actually want to be a good parent and not end up with kids raised by nannies who hate me.
The only places where birthrates remain high are so poor that they cannot afford birth control. As countries rise out of poverty, birthrates plummet. China used to have an extremely high birthrate, then it got wealthier and birthrates are now below replacement (even though the government pulled a total 180 from discouraging having children to actively encouraging it). Birthrates are also plummeting in India as extreme poverty has declined.
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It would figure that Chad has the most children!
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I don't think it's quite that simple, most due to the evidence provided by TSMC [cityam.com]. Children born to TSMC employees in Taiwan accounted for approximately 1.8% of all babies born nationwide in 2023, even though TSMC employees make up only about 0.3% of Taiwan's population. The usual reasons why women in OECD countries have low birth rates are turned on their head here. TSMC employees are
Re: (Score:1)
conservatives: we love making up problems to get mad at
anytime someone says "cultural decline" strap in, you're about to hear some real unhinged bullshit
Re: Keep voting.... (Score:1)
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Once again, the facts do not support this narrative.
The vast majority of children born in impoverished countries do not actually migrate to other countries. Most continue to live where in the country or at least region where they were born. That's why the population of sub-Saharan Africa is growing quickly but the population of Europe and the United States is not. Even in countries that have seen mass population decline from migration (Venezuela), the vast majority of migrants have gone elsewhere in Latin A
Re:Keep voting.... (Score:4, Interesting)
ANY welfare state
You mean like the red states that would collapse without blue state money?
And every woman has 5+ kids she has no way of supporting.
Indeed. I see this the most with aggressively religious white families. They have five or six kids, everyone in the family has a biblical name, and if they're not on welfare it's because of PRWORA and they used up their 60 months. They're self employed, so they can write off expenses (or for SNAP take a 40% deduction on self employment income) and they're all on Medicaid. "Somehow" the church that told them to make all those babies isn't interested in providing them with assistance.
There's no jobs (Score:2, Interesting)
We make jobs a resource necessary to live. Jobs are as important as food and water because they are the thing that comes before getting the food and the water.
Japan like everywhere else is automating the shit out of everything. Automation is devouring jobs much faster than we can create new ones.
There is no solution to that problem besides social
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But places with socialism and abundant jobs still have low birthrates. You can debate the optimal economic system until you are blue in the face, but it's not the reason birthrates are low.
It's not the socialism (Score:2)
As soon as you put women in the workforce you have to start giving them basic civil rights so that they can function properly in the workforce and you have to start giving them education so that they can be productive modern workers.
If you leave your women out of the workfor
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If someone can drill down low-birthrates to a single cause they've probably got a Nobel heading their way.
Socialism is not the way I would phrase it (because none of the countries you are thinking of are actually socialist) but I think making more incentives for people to start families can help. In Europe the country that has managed to stay closest to replacement has been France and I would say that's in part because France offers a lot of assistance for people to have kids and has for a long time.
France
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wrong, falling prices would be a great change for the Japanese, what is constantly falling is their living standard, they have to run twice as fast just to get half of what it was and the reason is inflation of the money supply, their government hands out almost free money to anyone, keeping their zombie companies afloat artificially and supplying money for the Japanese carry trade (get credit from Japan for no intwrest and invest anywhere else, especially the USA). They are paying for their extreme Keynes
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Housing in places like Akita Prefecture where birthrates are falling the fastest is super cheap.
That's because it's a dead-end area. Nobody can build a good life there. While in Tokyo, nobody can afford to get a child. That's the result of runaway urbanism.
I have a solution! (Score:3)
Honestly a pretty noble exercise. (Score:3)
There are all sorts of purposes that will loudly proclaim that it's imperative that they have people; but they tend to offer pretty thin compensation for showing up beyond appeals to the fact that they've chewed up the last batch who showed up and if they don't get more we won't be able to do whatever it is we've always done for the important reason that we've always done it so we'd better keep doing it.
It's too late for the already extant, they've got bills to pay; but there's no higher form of thinking of the children than ensuring that it will never be their problem.
Because Immigration (Score:3)
Japan has an extremely low immigration rate, few people want to live there because it is very difficult to integrate. Japanese people are culturally very insular, and racial purity is a thing.
If they were immigration-friendly, the population would not be declining.
USA, this is your future, too. Outlawing abortion will not be enough.
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If they were immigration-friendly, the population would not be declining.
It also wouldn't be Japan if it were filled with non-Japanese people.
The country will be just fine without infinity migrants from other cultures. Families will bounce back when they are ready.
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The language is hard, and the wages are low by international standards. It's a good place to live in other ways, but if you are just looking for a better life then there are easier options like New Zealand and Australia, and of course Europeans have EU freedom of movement.
In related news... (Score:3)
According to always-trustworthy FaceBook, Japan is suffering from a severe shortage of male porn actors. Brace for a wave of immigration. /s
Automate! (Score:2)
Bears hibernating in abandoned houses (Score:2)
That's the joke I was hoping to see, but obviously too much to expect from Slashdot. I can provide the context, though I can't write a good joke.
Lots of bear problems in this (mathematically interesting) year of 2025. Bears have no predators and their population has been growing steadily while there are lots of abandoned buildings in rural Japan. (The Japanese word in Romaji is "akiya" for empty house.) So the idea of the joke would involve "solving" both problems by letting the bears have the empty houses
Stop screwing around and start SCREWING AROUND! (Score:2)
And hurry it up before all the manga writers die off!