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Moon Science

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has a 4% Chance of Hitting the Moon (universetoday.com) 31

Posted by BeauHD from the once-in-a-generation-chance dept.
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Universe Today: There's a bright side to every situation. In 2032, the Moon itself might have a particularly bright side if it is blasted by a 60-meter-wide asteroid. The chances of such an event are still relatively small (only around 4%), but non-negligible. And scientists are starting to prepare both for the bad (massive risks to satellites and huge meteors raining down on a large portion of the planet) and the good (a once in a lifetime chance to study the geology, seismology, and chemical makeup of our nearest neighbor). A new paper from Yifan He of Tsinghua University and co-authors, released in pre-print form on arXiv, looks at the bright side of all of the potential interesting science we can do if a collision does, indeed, happen. If Asteroid 2024 YR4 were to hit the Moon, researchers would be able to watch a large lunar impact unfold in real time and collect data on extreme collisions that usually exist only in computer models. Telescopes could follow how a newly formed crater and its pool of molten rock cool and solidify, while the resulting moonquake would offer a clearer picture of its internal structure via the seismic waves it sends through the Moon.

Furthermore, researchers could compare the fresh crater to older ones to improve our understanding of the Moon's long history of impacts. Debris blasted off the surface could even deliver small lunar samples to Earth.

Altogether, it would be a once-in-a-generation chance to learn more about how the Moon/rocky worlds respond to powerful impacts.
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Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has a 4% Chance of Hitting the Moon More

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has a 4% Chance of Hitting the Moon

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  • ... moonshot?

  • This is exactly the scenario played out in his book SevenEves. Spoiler: it doesn't go well for planet earth for a loooooong time. But, the good news is, it does help get rid of unpopular leaders.

    • The premise of the book is that the moon suddenly breaks up into multiple large pieces (7 if I remember right). There was a little discussion devoted to "how did this happen?", but it was pushed aside in order to explore the interesting narrative of what happens to humanity after.

      A 60m asteroid may produce some ejecta, but it is not going to break the moon apart. Kinda like how the recent shift in Earth's magnetic field was not actually the premise of The Core, and nuclear test detonations are not actual

      • A 60m asteroid may produce some ejecta, but it is not going to break the moon apart.

        I think I've heard something like that before.....

        Darth Vader: "A pair of rebel proton torpedoes fired into a small thermal exhaust port is not going to break the Deathstar apart. For fuck's sake Tarkin, always a pessimist"

        • Now I really want to know if there's a recording anywhere of James Earl Jones saying "for fuck's sake." What a sad, terrible waste if there is not.
          • Or as Mufasa...AI says he never did say it in a recording.

            Total sidequest, but now I've got the audio of that short vid of adding "ya piece of shit" to famous lines running through my head. "Hakuna Matata, ya piece of shit".

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by qeveren ( 318805 )
        Any impact big enough to break the Moon up would blow Earth's atmosphere off as an immediate byproduct of the collision, so we wouldn't really have to worry about "what happens next". XD
        • That point was brought up in the book. Several times the breakup was described as "impossible", "magic", etc. All eventually handwaved away, which is what makes Stephenson such a master. Hard science for the part you care about, but don't waste time justifying the setup.
  • Can we redirect it so that it has a 99% chance of hitting it? If it's such a good idea, I mean. We have the technology, and we should practice using it in case we need to redirect one away from Earth.

    • Ummm... Yeah, you don't want that to happen, either. If the moon gets knock away from the earth, we'll have a very interesting end-time.

      • Re: (Score:3)

        by RobinH ( 124750 )
        Per NASA, "the asteroid is about the size of a 15-story building." I don't think we need to worry about it significantly altering the orbit of the moon when it hits.

        • Want to bet on what's actually significant? The orbital mechanics delicate. Any shift whatsoever will alter tidal patterns.

          • Re: (Score:3)

            by RobinH ( 124750 )
            "Most asteroid collisions would result in large craters and little else; even the largest asteroid known, Ceres, wouldn’t budge the Moon." - source [sciencefocus.com]

            • "Most asteroid collisions would result in large craters and little else; even the largest asteroid known, Ceres, wouldn’t budge the Moon." - source [sciencefocus.com]

              Wouldn't budge the moon. Newton has been invalidated!

              I would love to see whoever wrote that pieces math to show that there would be no transfer of momentum in a hypothetical collision between the Moon and Ceres. While there are a lot of factors, like mass and relative velocity involved, it is going to have some effect. Then there is the question of what happens to the rest of Ceres' mass. Some will likely incorporate onto the moon, some will get blasted away into a different orbit. But the moon is not l

          • Want to bet on what's actually significant? The orbital mechanics delicate. Any shift whatsoever will alter tidal patterns.

            Yes. While size is something most people can grok, the mass and relative velocity has a lot more to do with the impact's impact.

            • Momentum is mass x velocity x velocity. So velocity really matters in terms of shifting the orbit of the moon.

              The moon is some 225,000 - 250,000 miles away from Earth, and that distance already varies somewhat. While it is possible this strike may alter the moon's orbit slightly, I doubt given what I've read that it will be any kind of meaningful difference for us Earthlings.

          • The mass of 2024 YR4 is estimated to be in the range of 2.8e8 kg, or about 280,000 tons, near the weight of three fully loaded US supercarriers. The mass of the moon is about 7.3e22 kg. That's about 14 orders of magnitude.

            RUs1729 suggested below that this is like "a fly impinging on an incoming locomotive." A housefly has a mass of about 20 mg (2.0e-2 g) on the larger end of the scale. The heaviest railway train ever operated was an ore carrier in Australia that had a total mass of just under 100,000 metric

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by ahodgson ( 74077 )

            Have you seen the moon? It's been hit more than a few times before.

      • Don't be silly: it would be very similar to a fly impinging on an incoming locomotive.

      • Look up at the Moon. See all those craters?

        Big shit has been hitting the Moon for billions of years. It's still there.

  • Since they know this one is coming and it's as near as hitting us anyway, this is a perfect opportunity to try out an asteroid defense system.

  • Challenge accepted! (Score:3)

    by DrunkenTerror ( 561616 ) on Wednesday January 28, 2026 @09:27AM (#65954212) Homepage Journal

    if we blow up the moon first, then the asteroid can't hit it

    win-win

    ManTappingSideOfHeadWithFingerWhileGrinning.gif

  • Altogether, it would be a once-in-a-generation chance to learn more about how the Moon/rocky worlds respond to powerful impacts.

    ...and would probably fuck up global climate for 30-odd years or so, until the seismic energy brought into the system dissipates. Either way, fun times :-D

  • I've seen the movie, several of them actually. Don't worry, it will work out OK for us, even if that asteroid is really super dense (like neutronium) so it does really break up the moon and send part of it to Earth. The only real question is who is going to play "the pretty scientist" because you have to have one of those to save the day. :)

  • ...what's the chance of it hitting Earth? We're not that far apart...?

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