Kalshi Claims 'Extortion,' Then Recants in Feud Over User Losses (bloomberg.com) 25
Kalshi, the largest U.S. prediction market, accused a small data startup called Juice Reel of "extortion" after a stock analyst used the company's transaction-level data to argue that prediction market users lose money faster than gamblers on traditional betting apps -- then walked the allegation back hours later.
The equity research analyst Jordan Bender at Citizens found that the bottom quarter of prediction market users lost about 28 cents of every dollar wagered in their first three months, compared to roughly 11 cents per dollar on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings. Kalshi's head of communications told Bloomberg the report was "flat-out wrong" and called the data an extortion attempt. Juice Reel CEO Ricky Gold said Kalshi had actually pressured him to tell Bloomberg the data was inaccurate. Kalshi later issued an updated statement saying it continued to dispute the findings but "after further review, we don't believe the intention was extortion." The company did not provide any data to counter the analysis.
The equity research analyst Jordan Bender at Citizens found that the bottom quarter of prediction market users lost about 28 cents of every dollar wagered in their first three months, compared to roughly 11 cents per dollar on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings. Kalshi's head of communications told Bloomberg the report was "flat-out wrong" and called the data an extortion attempt. Juice Reel CEO Ricky Gold said Kalshi had actually pressured him to tell Bloomberg the data was inaccurate. Kalshi later issued an updated statement saying it continued to dispute the findings but "after further review, we don't believe the intention was extortion." The company did not provide any data to counter the analysis.
Good (Score:2)
I'm sick of seeing lame Kalshi ads all over my mobile apps.
The House always wins! (Score:4, Insightful)
Exactly! (Score:2)
Stay away from gambling people.
Go to the casino (Score:2)
and lose money. That's the way it's always been.
Humans are always looking for shortcuts.
Water is wet? (Score:3)
Re: (Score:2)
Theoretically if the pool of money was big enough and the float between deposits and payouts spread some that does not have to be the case.
The insurance industry for instance does not operate collecting more premiums than their casualty costs. Just like a bank lends out some of its deposits to earn interest lending, on the assumption not everyone will want to withdraw from their savings at once, insurers generally invest the capital and in many seconds of the insurance most the profit comes from the investm
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Theoretically if the pool of money was big enough and the float between deposits and payouts spread some that does not have to be the case.
The insurance industry for instance does not operate collecting more premiums than their casualty costs.
Jesus, dude. Ease up on the comedy this early in the morning. I've barely got my coffee down.
The insurance industry soaks up money like a sponge. They throw most of it at executive get-aways. Mom's last husband was an insurance dude, and the company sent him on two to four "retreats" a year, where he met up with literally hundreds of other salesmen and executives. And it was always places like Machu Pichu, Rome, or other high-dollar places, and they weren't staying in the no-tell hotels.
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Did I say they don't make a ton of money?
No I simply said the business model is not 'collect more premium than total casualty payments' which is not.
Depending on the sector a lot of insurers target a combined ratio under 100, that is they do infact collect a small amount of premium beyond their casualty costs and expense, but again the major source of their profitability is still investment income on those premiums while they hold them. Commercial insurance operates much more like a bank than a government r
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Why? If you're doing it to make money you're an idiot. If you're doing it for entertainment then you should prefer the system that gives you the most entertainment for your money.
The claim in the summary is different though. The bottom quarter, not everybody, apparently lost more money on Kalshi than Fan Duel. If you believe there's actual skill involved then that suggests skilled users would make more money on Kalshi.
Let's call each card suit by its proper name. (Score:4, Insightful)
"Kalshi, the largest U.S. casino..."
FTFY.
Kalshi: trade on the outcome of real-world events (Score:2)
did not provide any data to counter the analysis (Score:2)
aka "Well yeah, but..."
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Yes, I'm puzzled by this "revelation". Of course the bottom 25% lose money. That's how the bottom 25% is defined.
Re: logic?! (Score:2)
Technically a bottom 25% could simply be making less profit than the top 75%, nothing in the word bottom requires it to be negative. (But in practice it's a very negative number)
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If even the bottom 25% makes more returns than their spending, since all the rest make even more money, the business goes bankrupt very quickly.
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so it's a scam (Score:2)
And not even that good of a scam.
Disaster futures are now a thing :o (Score:2)
Only millionaires win (Score:2)
Remember high-frequency trading? Promising to buy a hundred thousand shares at a time, then cancelling the most expensive vendors. A single person can't compete against