EVs Could Be Cheaper To Own Than Gas Cars in Africa by 2040 (technologyreview.com) 58
Electric vehicles accounted for just 1% of new car sales across Africa in 2025, but a study published in Nature Energy by researchers at ETH Zurich finds that EVs paired with solar off-grid charging systems -- solar panels, batteries and an inverter -- could become cheaper to own than gas-powered equivalents across most of the continent by 2040.
The analysis considered total cost of ownership including sticker price, financing and fuel or charging costs, but excluded policy-related factors like taxes and subsidies. Electric two-wheelers could reach cost parity even sooner, by the end of the decade, thanks to smaller battery packs.
Small cars remain the toughest segment. The biggest obstacle is financing: in some African countries, political instability and economic uncertainty push borrowing costs so high that interest on an EV loan can exceed the vehicle's purchase price. South Africa, Mauritius and Botswana are already near the financing conditions needed for cost parity; countries like Sudan and Ghana would need drastic cuts.
The analysis considered total cost of ownership including sticker price, financing and fuel or charging costs, but excluded policy-related factors like taxes and subsidies. Electric two-wheelers could reach cost parity even sooner, by the end of the decade, thanks to smaller battery packs.
Small cars remain the toughest segment. The biggest obstacle is financing: in some African countries, political instability and economic uncertainty push borrowing costs so high that interest on an EV loan can exceed the vehicle's purchase price. South Africa, Mauritius and Botswana are already near the financing conditions needed for cost parity; countries like Sudan and Ghana would need drastic cuts.
I'm sure they'll be of so much use (Score:2)
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"Scientists thought they understood global warming. Then the past three years happened."
https://www.washingtonpost.com... [washingtonpost.com]
Yes, we are fucked in the ass. The worst case scenarios are likely if not optimistic.
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Maybe that's why Trump wants Greenland and Canada...
Greenland might become greener... ;)
Big caveats (Score:1, Redundant)
The study has huge caveats:
It is assumed that BEV costs are essentially equivalent to ICE costs. Part of this comes from an assumption that all cars of any type are only leased. However, even with that assumption, this equivalence assumption is certainly not true now and remains to be seen whether it will be true in the future.
It is assumed that the solar-battery home installation is completely free. This is a huge cost that is completely absent from the analysis.
The solar-battery home installation neces
Learn how to read before commenting (Score:4, Informative)
>>It is assumed that the solar-battery home installation is completely free. This is a huge cost that is completely absent from the analysis.
This statement is completely false. The article actually goes into great detail on the costs of the solar-off-grid (SOG) charging system and includes SOG costs in the total cost of ownership calculations.
"The SOG CAPEX consists of four hard-cost components, the solar PV panel, inverter, stationary lithium-ion battery and balance of system (BOS), and one soft-cost component, installation. Each hard-cost component is sized to the application-specific use case in the SOG sizing optimization model (details below). "
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This statement is completely false. The article actually goes into great detail on the costs of the solar-off-grid (SOG) charging system and includes SOG costs in the total cost of ownership calculations.
And regardless of BEV usage, SOG (or mini-grids) is poised to rapidly expand in Africa (bringing reliable power to remote communities). If you build it, they will come?
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It’s not just poised to expand rapidly, it *is* expanding rapidly. And mobility is not the first use case, either, which means that an analysis that assigns all the costs of SOG to charging an EV is thinking about this the wrong way. Households will install small domestic solar setups for light, refrigeration and charging phones and laptops at first. They will expand those setups in size and charge two-, then three-, then four-wheeled vehicles over time. The costs thus get amortised over a wider base
Re:Learn how to read before commenting (Score:4, Interesting)
>>It is assumed that the solar-battery home installation is completely free. This is a huge cost that is completely absent from the analysis.
This statement is completely false.
Yes, you are correct, and my statement is incorrect.
I think I missed that SOG analysis because in Figure 1, the SOG (solar off grid) costs are so low. I had expected them to be much higher. In the study, the household car is associated with a 2.5 kWp system with an associated 6 kWh battery. That means that the SOG can provide an average range of somewhere around 30 miles per day.
The costs in Africa are also far cheaper than in the US. A 5kW solar PV system with 5kW of stationary battery storage is quoted at USD $3,234 – $5,390, which is far below the US cost, which is likely around 5x the cost.
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Hmm, the prices aren't that out of whack with reality.
5KwH battery https://www.jackery.com/produc... [jackery.com] From Jackery $3100.
They have a bundle for $5100 that comes with 1kw of solar panels and a smart transfer switch. That's high for the panels and I haven't priced the switch out.
This is off Alibaba. 5kw complete system. Panels, wires, inverter, battery. $865 + $384 in shipping. If you double the 865 to $1730 (100% tariff rate), you are still only out of $2114.
https://www.alibaba.com/produc... [alibaba.com]
So yeah,
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The costs in Africa are also far cheaper than in the US. A 5kW solar PV system with 5kW of stationary battery storage is quoted at USD $3,234 â" $5,390, which is far below the US cost, which is likely around 5x the cost.
Sizing 5kw PV /w 5kw storage doesn't seem like a good combo especially for Africa.
Equipment is cheap everywhere. Here in the US fully integrated batteries are $100/kWh. PV about $0.50/watt, or half that for used/bulk. AIO driving 5+kw of PV less than $1k. Everything else... labor, wiring, mounting, adherence to regulatory regimes all massively and unnecessarily hike prices into stratosphere.
Interesting for all of the talk about the environment and how important it is to curtail carbon emissions the US r
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"Buy a solar panel and plug it into a wall outlet" is surprisingly dangerous for a number of reasons, even more so if you have to operate on the assumption that the buyer doesn't even read the manual.
This is incorrect and is in fact commonplace in many countries. The panels include micro inverters that are simply plugged into common electrical outlets. The inverter has all of the necessary anti-islanding baked in.
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Thank you for proving my point. The most obvious danger is that a PV cell with micro inverter should be used on a circuit of its own, because it can prevent fuses from working properly. This is especially problematic in America due to the lower voltage. Let's say you have a 15 amp circuit and a 500W PV cell working at maximum capacity. If there are also consumers on the circuit, the wiring can be constantly overloaded by 30% without the fuse triggering. That's easily enough to create a fire hazard if the installation is even a bit shoddy.
AC circuit breakers and fuses in electrical panels exist to protect downstream wiring. They do so regardless of direction of current flow. If less current feeding an outlet is pulled in either direction a protection device need not trip. If more is pulled in either direction the protection device interrupts the circuit.
If current from PV feeds local loads thereby reducing current required to be pulled from wires feeding an outlet this would indeed allow loads to run on the circuit that would otherwise t
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Thank you for proving my point. The most obvious danger is that a PV cell with micro inverter should be used on a circuit of its own, because it can prevent fuses from working properly. This is especially problematic in America due to the lower voltage. Let's say you have a 15 amp circuit and a 500W PV cell working at maximum capacity. If there are also consumers on the circuit, the wiring can be constantly overloaded by 30% without the fuse triggering. That's easily enough to create a fire hazard if the installation is even a bit shoddy.
AC circuit breakers and fuses in electrical panels exist to protect downstream wiring. They do so regardless of direction of current flow. If less current feeding an outlet is pulled in either direction a protection device need not trip. If more is pulled in either direction the protection device interrupts the circuit.
If current from PV feeds local loads thereby reducing current required to be pulled from wires feeding an outlet this would indeed allow loads to run on the circuit that would otherwise trip the protection device. This isn't a dangerous condition because the wires feeding the outlet are not being overloaded.
This faulty reasoning is exactly why it is dangerous. If you have a 15A fuse, wiring is rated for a bit less than that as permanent load. If you have a PV feed of 5A in the circuit, consumers can pull at least ~17A without triggering the fuse. That's enough to start damaging the wires over an hour or two.
The other major safety issue is that non-electricans have a history of ignoring installation rules and wanting to install more than one PV system. Once you have two micro inverters, the island detection can become unreliable
This is baseless nonsense. Systems with large numbers of micro inverters are common especially here in the US due to requirement for MLPE stemming from 80v per conductor limit of NEC 690. Anti-islanding i
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This faulty reasoning is exactly why it is dangerous. If you have a 15A fuse, wiring is rated for a bit less than that as permanent load. If you have a PV feed of 5A in the circuit, consumers can pull at least ~17A without triggering the fuse. That's enough to start damaging the wires over an hour or two.
For the sake of argument presume this happens. There is a PV on a circuit that is already overloaded with sum of multiple loads across different outlets reaching 17A. 15A circuits in the US are generally fed by 14 AWG romex. The difference between 15 and 17 amps with this gauge wiring is dissipation of an extra watt per meter. This is not going to damage jack diddly squat.
In the real world if a circuit was overloaded in this way then it is going to trip after a couple of minutes unless it is only overloa
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Nope. Try this: what is the cost of the battery/solar install - a one-time thing... vs. the cost of filling your tank with 15-20 gal how many times A WEEK? For a year or four?
Non-Electric Vehicles (Score:2)
This reminds me of an article I read about non-electric can openers. https://h2g2.com/edited_entry/... [h2g2.com]
Just in case a hurricane, tornado, or nuclear war does ever leave you in need of some serious manual can-opening, it wouldn't hurt to know how to use one.
Re:Non-Electric Vehicles (Score:4, Informative)
This makes my head hurt. I've never even heard of electric can openers. The linked can opener is a very advanced non-electric one. I mean, people should know how to use a pocket-knife can-opener.
And if you don't have that, a knife will do - as long as it's not a nice, sharp knife that you value.
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You realise it's an in-universe description for Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy, right?
Re: Non-Electric Vehicles (Score:1)
"By 2040" (Score:2)
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Yes. Considering how long people normally own a given vehicle, the take-away almost seems to be "make your next car purchase an ICE because electric wont be cheaper until after you get rid of that one at least".
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Some EVs are already cheaper than an equivalent ICE. Take something like an MG S5 Long Range. Can be had new for £23k, and a similar size and spec level fossil is going to be at least that much, plus the much higher on-going costs for fuel and maintenance.
The issue is that the US only allows expensive, shitty cars to be sold there at the moment. Canada has the right idea.
the cheapest option for 2040 (Score:4, Informative)
The cheapest option will be to buy a US college graduation's student loan and have him pull a rickshaw until he pays you back.
Road conditions (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm curious how road conditions will affect this. EVs are generally far heavier than their combustion-powered counterparts, and road conditions can play hell on cars that are heavy.
On top of that if charging infrastructure is slow to be built-out or if it's more easily damaged in conflicts, it may be hard to get drivers off of gasoline as a fuel that only requires a jug and a funnel to refuel with out in rural areas.
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I'm curious how road conditions will affect this....
You are right to wonder, as most current EVs one is likely to be familiar with are designed with paved roads in mind. However, there has been a number of EVs specifically designed for the unpaved roads in some parts of Africa, beginning with local OEMs, but China manufacturers are starting to enter the market too. You are not likely to see those EVs outside of places like Africa, at least initially (they tend to be more utilitarian in looks and features than customers elsewhere want to buy).
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Most cars in Africa are ether much smaller than American cars, or heavy duty off-road types. Not all cars, but most.
Also, EVs are not “much heavier”. Like-for-like, they tend to be about 20% heavier. Eg a small European ICE hatchback weighs about 1300kg, an EV version about 1500kg. That 200kg is the equivalent of four people in the car instead of one, ie no big deal.
Gasoline infra is just as easy to damage as EV infra. Solar and batteries are more islanded and thus more resilient than relying on
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Yup.
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EVs are a bit heavier than an equivalent fossil, but there are also a lot of very heavy fossils on the roads. Especially in Africa where the roads are poor, so small trucks are preferred. Lots of used Toyota Hylux ones get sold there.
For rural areas they have problems with fossil fuel distribution already. It's actually easier to charge an EV, you can use the same solar panels that you use for your house (because the grid hasn't reached you, and/or is unreliable). There's also the maintenance issue, with fo
Seriously? 2040 (Score:3, Insightful)
That's 15 years from now. Anything the hell can happen by 2040 .. maybe in 2040 the great Ijigwabogajooga will rise up from the giant pit of rhinoceros shit? Why do people make stupid ass predictions?
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This must be a joke (Score:1, Interesting)
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The huge advantage of solar in Africa is that it doesn't require extensive infrastructure. Same goes for the introduction of cell towers removing the need for networks of poles and wires.
Solar also greatly improves the balance of payment problems that plague Africa because every panel and every EV imported permanently reduces the unending monthly need to import fuel paid for in USD. Solar is the energy equivalent of compounding interest.
TCO isn't what entices people to buy cars (Score:2)
Total cost of ownership may be lower, but for most people, the sticker price, and especially the monthly payment, is all they look at. If that's not lower, most will still keep buying the gas cars, because the lower operating costs aren't as easy to see.
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You’re thinking in American terms. For people living in African countries, the calculus is completely different. For example, for an American, solar & battery is always an optional choice, because grid connections are just there for you, and are more or less reliable. For many people across Africa, grid connections are rare and the grid itself is completely unreliable. So the value of solar & battery is dramatically higher, and the comparator costs includes kerosene lamps and generators
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You're right about grid conditions. But those same grid conditions push Africans to use gasoline, because if the grid is unreliable, you also can't be sure you can recharge your car's battery when you need to.
Africans, like those in the West, come in three groups: those who can afford to buy a car outright, those who have to make payments, and those who can only afford used vehicles. The proportions might be different, but they do all exist. And for the first two groups, TCO is indeed secondary to up-front
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It's a dynamic situation, because solar and battery costs have fallen so dramatically across Africa and thus imports have shot up across most countries, lots of it for domestic installations. This is a last-two-years phenomenon, really.
On the latter point, I think it's important to recognise that the pathway for families in relation to mobility is not two legs to four wheels. It's bikes, then motorbikes, then cars. And bikes and motorbikes benefit from electrification, and can be charged at home more readil
Have these people been to Africa? (Score:2)
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1. You’ve ignored the importance of solar & batteries, both domestic and community microgrids. These are central, just like mobile cell masts were central to why Africa largely skipped over landlines
2. Reliability is higher for EVs than for ICE, because of mechanical simplicity. You don’t need to maintain an electric motor, it’s sealed and is going to last and last.
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EVs are highly reliable. Especially the powertrain.
Re: Have these people been to Africa? (Score:2, Insightful)
That's not what consumer reports has said ever.
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The video argues that a recent Consumer Reports reliability ranking, claiming EVs have 80% more problems than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, is misleading and biased.
Main Argument: Consumer Reports is Misrepresenting Data
The video contends that Consumer Reports (CR) is fabricating a narrative against electric vehicles by using flawed scoring systems that equate minor inconveniences with catastrophic mechanical failures [00:24].
* Skewed Scoring: CR weights minor software glitches (like Blueto
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Then the video is brought to you by the EV industry.
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Re: Have these people been to Africa? (Score:2)
There is no point bringing it up if there is demonstrable bias.
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Couldn’t see predictions of battery costs (Score:2)
A quick scan of the Nature article didn’t seem to show anything for the rise of sodium batteries. Strikes me that pretty obviously, small sodium 4 wheelers will be a big winner in driving down costs for EVs in Africa. Both BYD and CATL now have sodium in production, and both are predicting substantially lower cost batteries as a result. Doesn’t work for the premium segments, where consumer demand long range, but African consumers are focused on affordability above all.
They will get Chinese EV's.... (Score:2)
ORLY (Score:1)
Obviously. (Score:3)
A field of solar cells with not a single moving part is way easier and cheaper to maintain than an entire supply chain for fossil fuel.
If we would start again from scratch with cars today, nobody would touch an ICE with a ten foot pole. They only are still produced, because the entire fossil fuel infrastructure still is in place. Once that is over, ICEs will be stuff out of a museum, like steam engines today.