Israeli Soldiers Accused of Using Polymarket To Bet on Strikes (wsj.com) 128
An anonymous reader shares a report: Israel has arrested several people, including army reservists, for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Israeli military operations on Polymarket. Shin Bet, the country's internal security agency, said Thursday the suspects used information they had come across during their military service to inform their bets.
One of the reservists and a civilian were indicted on a charge of committing serious security offenses, bribery and obstruction of justice, Shin Bet said, without naming the people who were arrested. Polymarket is what is called a prediction market that lets people place bets to forecast the direction of events. Users wager on everything from the size of any interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March to the winner of League of Legends videogame tournaments to the number of times Elon Musk will tweet in the third week of February.
The arrests followed reports in Israeli media that Shin Bet was investigating a series of Polymarket bets last year related to when Israel would launch an attack on Iran, including which day or month the attack would take place and when Israel would declare the operation over. Last year, a user who went by the name ricosuave666 correctly predicted the timeline around the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. The bets drew attention from other traders who suspected the account holder had access to nonpublic information. The account in question raked in more than $150,000 in winnings before going dormant for six months. It resumed trading last month, betting on when Israel would strike Iran, Polymarket data shows.
One of the reservists and a civilian were indicted on a charge of committing serious security offenses, bribery and obstruction of justice, Shin Bet said, without naming the people who were arrested. Polymarket is what is called a prediction market that lets people place bets to forecast the direction of events. Users wager on everything from the size of any interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March to the winner of League of Legends videogame tournaments to the number of times Elon Musk will tweet in the third week of February.
The arrests followed reports in Israeli media that Shin Bet was investigating a series of Polymarket bets last year related to when Israel would launch an attack on Iran, including which day or month the attack would take place and when Israel would declare the operation over. Last year, a user who went by the name ricosuave666 correctly predicted the timeline around the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. The bets drew attention from other traders who suspected the account holder had access to nonpublic information. The account in question raked in more than $150,000 in winnings before going dormant for six months. It resumed trading last month, betting on when Israel would strike Iran, Polymarket data shows.
InsiderMarket was already taken (Score:2)
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That would have been taken by Hamas, and the islamic regime in Iran
Sigh (Score:5, Insightful)
When Admiral John Poyndexter originally proposed a stock market for violence, terrorism, and conflicts, as a means to "predict" them, absolutely everyone pointed out that you'd get the equivalent of insider trading by terrorists, warlords, and psychopaths. Which is precisely what we're seeing.
Re: Sigh (Score:3)
And if you know that that is the case... maybe you can watch for it.
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Watch for it? We're funding it.
Re:ouch'e (Score:2)
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It's a double-edged sword. You're in effect bribing your enemies to divulge their secrets, which is good... but
And also, as in this case, you're in effect bribing your employees to divulge your secrets.
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Israel isn't operating polymarket, so it still wasn't Israel working against itself.
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All warfare is based on deception. There's a concept called need-to-know where you don't tell all your troops the exact date.
You can also spread misinformation. Each brigade gets a different date. Now when you see a date show up in public, you can point to one specific brigade that leaked it.
Your enemy will notice the hardware and personnel build up anyways, so the best you can do is fake it a few times to get them to drop their guard against the real thing.
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Suspicious hey? One of the guys convicted for Iran-Contra comes up with the idea while heading a DARPA information warfare project. His "Policy Analysis Market" gets panned by the media and everything gets shut down.
A decade and a half later, "Polymarket" launches.
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Funny enough, once they allowed sports betting, it started happening as well. And many players got in on the scam to rig the betting and they'd get a cut of the proceeds if they agreed to tank their stats or fake an in
Mmmmh (Score:2)
Israel, soldiers, strikes, betting...I fail to see the 'news for nerds, stuff that matters angle'.
Found it! There's 'online' somewhere in the text.
Re: Mmmmh (Score:1)
Have you seriously never heard of polymarket and the whole thing behind it?
In that case it really is news for nerds, isn't it?
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Re: Mmmmh (Score:2)
"Have you seriously never heard of polymarket"
No.
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"Have you seriously never heard of polymarket"
No.
https://slashdot.org/index2.pl... [slashdot.org]
Re:Mmmmh (Score:4, Insightful)
Considering these evil people are wrecking everything for everybody, it's news for nerds too, classism affects everyone negatively.
Genocide is bad, but have you tried... (Score:5, Insightful)
All the difference (Score:3, Insightful)
Eradicating people for profit appears underrated when personal wealth is involved. Just ask Benjamin Netanyahu.
It's unconscienable that Israel has murdered tens of thousands of Palestinians, especially *because* of the Holocaust.
Obviously, the modern Israeli leadership has been perfectly willing to emulate the Nazi regime by implementing a Holocaust of their very own.
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The holocaust holds them back from doing what they really would like to do; it is heavily exploited by them as a rhetorical weapon that also imposes constraint. When they win enough of the war on reason, hypocrisy will become the virtue it already has for the GOP of America.
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Israel has killed people out to murder them - something that all countries reserve a right to do
If you want a holocaust, just look at the islamic regime in Iran vs its people
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Re: All the difference (Score:2)
How much hatred can one piece of shit fit into one post?
Re:Genocide is bad, but have you tried... (Score:4, Insightful)
Thou Shall Not Kill
Thou Shall not Covet Thy Neighbors Stuff
The Israelites, not the the Israelis, were given the Ten Commandments and we can see that they have clearly broken them. Do they really think Palestine is theirs? No, they're just unethical greedy and abusive people in a position of power stealing from the powerless. This is just what classism and greed looks like.
This isn't about Israel, this is about criminal behavior by the powerful. This is what corruption, injustice and tyranny looks like. The outcome of a corrupt process which always directly leads to violence and dysfunction.
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The term "Palestinian" historically never existed before 1964, when the Soviets taught Yasser Arafat to rebrand his movement as that. In fact, before the creation of Israel in 1948, the term "Palestinian" was exclusively used to refer to Jews, not Arabs. Once Israel did get created, Jews were no longer referred to as Palestinians, just Israelis
Also, historically, when that area was under muslim rule - be it Arab or Turkish, there never was a Palestine. During the Arabs, it was ruled directly from Damas
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What is your point ? Palestine country is a modern invention so we can kill them and take over their territory ?
Beside, no only are they persecuting and killing innocents to take their lands, but they are also creating the terrorism that kills Israeli (and mess up the whole world), and by doing so, shift Israel ever more to the far right. Hitler must be laughing is ass off in his grave. Stupid fucking morons.
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If anybody has been killing anybody, it has been the Palis - who have killed both any Jews who mistakenly enter their turf, as well as other Palis who they regard as collaborators. Only time the Israelis kill anybody is when they engage in jihadist activities, be it in Gaza, Judea, Samaria or Israel proper
Aside from the fact that that territory was never theirs, the other fact is that Israeli Arabs - Arabs who have accepted Israeli citizenship and settled down in Israel as productive citizens - have all
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>Only time the Israelis kill anybody is when they engage in jihadist activities
Now I *know* to just ignore whatever you have to say on the subject. Israel is committing genocide and illegally taking over the West Bank, at the very least. Has been for years.
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>Only time the Israelis kill anybody is when they engage in jihadist activities
Now I *know* to just ignore whatever you have to say on the subject. Israel is committing genocide and illegally taking over the West Bank, at the very least. Has been for years.
Whenever a genocide happens, the population of the target goes down, not up! Like in the case of the holocause, or like in the case of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. You're just demonstrating yourself as a cretin at best, and a jihadist at worst
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Of course the vast majority of the country is populated by European Ashkenazi Jews, very few of whom share any measurable amount of genetics with the Mizrahi Jews who have consistently lived in the region for the last two millennia, so "and their descendants" isn't really applicable. I can convert to Judaism tomorrow and almost immediately qualify to move to Israel, but that hasn't changed my genetics or heritage.
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Thou Shall Not Kill
To be clear, that was largely resolved as a debate in Israel during the Maccabee era: violence is acceptable in self-defense (and Hamas wants to push Israel into the sea).
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To be clear, that was largely resolved as a debate in Israel during the Maccabee era: violence is acceptable in self-defense (and Hamas wants to push Israel into the sea).
I think you better look at the map.
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Do you have any other vapid requests?
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violence is acceptable in self-defense
Works both ways. Israel has no moral high ground whatsoever.
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Sure it does. October 7th happened in a vacuum: there were no Jews in Gaza, but there was that attack on Israel from there which provoked the Israeli war that took out Hamas
The only justification for the massacre of Jews is an islamic one - the jihad. Which is the Hamas justification, if one goes through all their literature. However, few Leftists want to look at the islamic underpinnings of this jihad against Israel
Re:Genocide is bad, but have you tried... (Score:4, Insightful)
Wow, so three quarters of a century of massacres, theft, abuse, rape, starvation, destruction, imprisonment and frelling biological warfare is just fine, and you feel the Palestinians should lay back and take it. I have no words.
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Why? Israel has very clearly and definitively declared many, many times that they will never allow Palestinians to have their own state with any sort of independence. That's official state policy. So as is normal for the hasbara spouters, you demand that the Palestinians lay down and accept anything they're told to do, while putting no restraints on Israel.
Sorry, that bird don't fly no more.
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OK, so how do you propose to implement that foolishness when the more powerful "partner" adamantly rejects the very concept? Right now Israel has annexed East Jerusalem, is preparing to annex the whole of the West Bank, has destroyed Gaza and crammed the survivors into a few tiny concentration camps, and openly says that Israeli "settlers" will be allowed to occupy the majority of it. Where are you going to establish the second state? Since the Sadministration's plan is to remove the Palestinians before
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Netenyahu gains strength when Palestinians threaten violence, and gets voted out when there is a prospect for peace. They should play on that. Perhaps the main problem with a forced migration is that no one else in the world wants the Palestinians.
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There has never been a "prospect for peace" in our entire lifetimes, even 1948 was too late.
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Russia is giving the territories affected the opportunity to vote whether to join the Russian Federation or stay with the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe. Oddly enough so far they've all voted to join the RF.
And wars that they didn't start? Seriously? I'll just refer to my post:
https://slashdot.org/comments.... [slashdot.org]
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Wow, so three quarters of a century of massacres, theft, abuse, rape, starvation, destruction, imprisonment and frelling biological warfare is just fine, and you feel the Palestinians should lay back and take it. I have no words.
You are a congenital liar!
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and Hamas wants to push Israel into the sea
Before the latest escalation Israel was killing ten times as many Palestinians as the reverse. Now it's a much, much higher ratio. In the process they have been murdering more journalists than all other nations combined, to attempt to prevent you from hearing about it. Despite this, the information has been generally available to anyone willing to know about it.
Who's trying to erase whom?
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Also, I think your whataboutism argument makes you look like a tool
You have that backwards. As the numbers clearly show, Israel is the primary aggressor here. You're whatabouting on their behalf. When politicians do it for AIPAC money it's evil, you're just a stupid fucking clown.
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Are you trying to say that Palestinians shouldn't (and shouldn't have) accepted the two state solution?
I'm saying it doesn't matter what Palestinians accept because Israel will never, ever keep up their end of the deal, period. They have broken literally every cease fire, not least because they have literally never stopped illegally settling Palestine. Their attacks are perpetual because they have both religious fervor and greed behind them, but I repeat myself.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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Okay, time to educate yourself.
He said, while ignoring facts.
You've been hanging out with too many anti-semites
The only place I might be doing that is here.
and are talking like a jew hater, which I think you are not
Correct. I am not a jew hater. I am not even really a Zionist hater. How can I hate them when my tax dollars are funding their genocide?
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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Yeah, that's your problem. Having been presented an abundance of facts, you preferred to ignore them and remain ignorant.
Your problem is a lack of reading comprehension. I've read that article already and it contradicts nothing I've said, and supports nothing you've said.
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Your reading comprehension is bad.
Your support for genocide is evil and your grasp on logic is nonexistent. Israel doesn't support any solution that doesn't include owning and occupying the entire Levant and their repeated actions prove this, and you are pretending otherwise because apparently you love genocide.
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Yes, but they're Gods promised people in their promised land. Pretty sure God also promised some crypto to them.
In sharp contrast to the Arabs, who conquered lands that were never theirs - from the Maghreb to Babylon. Unlike the muslims, the Israelis are native to that land, and also unlike the Arabs, they're not trying to conquer other countries, or force people at gunpoint to accept Judaism
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Okay, for a moment, let's say that the Hebrews deserve to be expelled from Israel b'cos they massacred the Canaanites. The logical place to then send them would be Ur, which would be in southern Iraq, where they originally came from. So will the shi'a Arabs then kindly vacate Najaf, Kufa, Karbala, Basra so that all the Hebrews can return there?
You cite the bible: the qur'an calls for all infidels to be killed whenever possible, and if not, be defeated and subjected to islamic law. That's how it was for
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Oh, in that context it excuses all the murders. Thanks for clearing it up!
Re: Genocide is bad, but have you tried... (Score:1)
Self defense is not murder. Even if the defender is Jewish.
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Yeah, the murder of Jews by Hamas and other jihad terrorists
Re: Genocide is bad, but have you tried... (Score:1)
They know exactly what it means and they misuse the word out of hatred.
Re:Genocide is bad, but have you tried... (Score:4, Insightful)
It's a weird "genocide" that results in the "palestinian" population being six times what it was when Israel became a modern state.
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means ..."
Let's check the Israel apologist playbook:
Check: Imply Palestine isn't real.
Check: It's not genocide because Israel hasn't killed enough of them yet.
~70k civilians aren't enough, carpet-bombing their land isn't enough, forcing them into "safe zones" then bombing the safe zones, denying Palestinian refugees medical aid and food, the Israeli government routinely referring to Palestinians with sub-human wording doesn't tip you off either.
I have to say though, your argument of taking nearly a century's worth of population growth and comparing it to less than 3 years of a full-scale massacre is among the most dishonest uses of statistics I have ever seen. What will you do for an encore, take the Jewish European population growth rate over a century prior to the Holocaust and say, "nah, that wasn't a genocide either"?
The obvious conclusion is that unless the situation for Palestinians changes dramatically for the better, then Israel won't need to build extermination chambers, they will just let them choose between dying of poverty or a routine military criminal action.
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Palestine is a region, not a nationality. The one time it was historically used was b/w 1920 to 1948, and the term "Palestinian" was specifically used to describe Jewish inhabitants of the area, not Arabs. In fact, it wasn't until 1964, when the Soviets advised Arafat to rebrand his people as "Palestinians", that that term started to describe Arabs. As I described elsewhere in this page, it was to flip the David-Goliath script against Israel
As for the "civilians" killed, if you're talking about Gaza, a
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Check: It's not genocide because Israel hasn't killed enough of them yet.
Okay, so you agree that Israel isn't committing genocide. It's been 3 years and Israel hasn't managed to kill all the Gazans, and the Gazans' population has actually gone up. You saying that it's genocide is a criminally evil lie. Crying wolf about genocide is awful.
You're witnessing a very just, and ethically demanded, war of defence against barbarism where the defenders are bending over backwards to protect civilians and the attackers are hiding behind poor civilians.
The plight of the "Palestinians" is nobody's fault but their own.
This is a war of civilization and the rule of law against barbarism and lawlessness. And yet you have a massive problem with that.
Reading comprehension is not your strong suit, nor is basic history of Israel's insertion into Palestine by the British.
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Okay, so no rebuttal to any of my points.
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Okay, so no rebuttal to any of my points.
I'll tell you what: I'll give you a chance to respond and make a counter-argument to what I *actually wrote* in good faith, or you can chalk this up as a clear win against your imaginary opponent. I honestly don't mind either way, but those are the only two options I'm offering.
Re: Genocide is bad, but have you tried... (Score:2)
Give us a fucking break. Plenty of good people of all types in the world, including Muslims in Israel.
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During the Naqba, the Arab muslims (they were not called "Palestinians" then) were encouraged by Arab governments around them, like Jordan and Egypt, to leave the area, and return once Israel was wiped out. Their problem: Israel was not wiped out, but the Arab countries where they fled refused to give them citizenship, preferring instead to use them as pawns to negotiate return to Israel.
It's worth noting that after 1948, Jews all over the Arab world started moving to Israel, to get rid of the dhimmi sta
Betting sites are a front of public corruption (Score:5, Insightful)
We also saw a case recently where someone won $400k betting Maduro would not be in office and itâ(TM)s thought they are likely a DOD or Trump admin insider.
Polymarket and other betting sites have basically become a way for insiders to profiteer on non public information but in a way that endangers states by adding a personal profit motive to govt policy that extends far beyond actual decision makers or those in a position to award govt contracts and now anyone around the water cooler can do it.
Re: Betting sites are a front of public corruption (Score:2)
Itâ(TM)s not just a concern over insider trading â" how long until someone decides to get rich by betting on someone being assassinated, and then does it?
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I know I proposed this back in the day as a way to hire assassinations on the sly.
Have a betting pool on somebody's death. Bets minus the vig go into the pool. Payouts go proportionally to how specific the bet matches. IE a bet for the week pays 1/7 over a specific day. Cause of death would take more figuring.
The more people bet on somebody's death, the more money. The actual killer could snipe most of the pool by being specific in their bet. Basically sports fixing.
If a person is popular, or unpopular,
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Aside from being clearly illegal internet gambling and an affront to the law; this is a good place to lure the corrupt into a trap. You just have to actually remove the corrupt people for it do any good.
"Pardoning the Bad, is injuring the Good."
-Franklin
Re: Betting sites are a front of public corruption (Score:2)
True but top officials and contract officers, even brokerage employees are monitored for this type of behavior. Most govt employees and military are not actively monitored because they donâ(TM)t have enough authority to make financial decisions.
is that you (Score:2)
That's fucked up (Score:4, Insightful)
Israel is literally committing genocide in Palestine, then demanding support and even applause for it; yet they think reservists using classified info to gain a gambling advantage is a crime that calls for arrests?
Talk about a broken moral compass! Those folks are seriously disconnected from reality.
What a surprise they are so accurate (Score:1)