Microsoft's AI Chief Says All White-Collar Desk Work Will Be Automated Within 18 Months (fortune.com) 150
Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman expects "human-level performance on most, if not all professional tasks" from AI, and believes most work involving "sitting down at a computer" -- accounting, legal, marketing, project management -- will be fully automated within the next year or 18 months. He pointed to exponential growth in computational power and predicted that creating a new AI model will soon be as easy as "creating a podcast or writing a blog."
no jobs (Score:5, Insightful)
how will we afford to rent our compute terminal
Re: no jobs (Score:5, Informative)
I have not seen a single instance where current AIs is reliable enough that it can effectively replace a single real world white collar profession.
And this dude thinks they are going to replace ALL white collar jobs?
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It's going to be like in the Simpsons where Homer set up a drinking bird to hit return when various prompts came up so he wouldn't have to actually be at his computer to "work".
Re: no jobs (Score:2)
Microsoft announces massive losses, right (Score:3)
So, if large numbers of white collar jobs are going away and tens (hundreds?) of millions of white collar workers around the world will be out of work, Microsoft's own customers will stop licensing Windows, Office, Teams and lots of Microsoft back end services, right?
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Or in an existing business, if you've replaced all the existing business functions with AI, then the AI owns your business plan.
Either way, you become dependent on a third party to run your own business for you.
"Nice business plan you've got there. It would be a shame if something happened to it".
At that point, you pay for Windows, Office
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But this is Microsoft. Could AI really do any worse?
Re: no jobs (Score:2)
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Who vets and creates this "discrete information" dataset? Don't say AI, because it doesn't yet have vetted discrete information.
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So you are saying it requires human experts to do lots of pre-work. And this is all going to be done in 18 months for every single profession?
Re: no jobs (Score:5, Insightful)
plenty of AI's can already replace professionals from insurance assessors to accounting roles. Do not judge AI performance based on AI the general public uses. AI that is grounded in vetted discreet information is extremely accurate, fast and efficient.
Up until the point where it hallucinates absolute nonsense. And now you have multi-million-dollar legal or tax liability or whatever.
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Didn't one of the big three already do this? Wasn't it PwC?
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Re: no jobs (Score:2)
Re: no jobs (Score:3)
I also predict that scammers will target accounting AIs with falsified information to try to scam money out of companies.
Re: no jobs (Score:2)
Do you honestly think he cares? He is going for short term results and then takes his golden parachute when the whole place is on fire.
When have these executives ever faced consequences for their BS?
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Of course *you* haven't seen it. They don't share "the good stuff" with commoners.
Re: no jobs (Score:2)
AI = 1000 monkeys + 1000 typewriters
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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Re: no jobs (Score:2)
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Generally though, the blue collar workers are performing tasks that were set o.ut by white collar workers. It's not like much happens in an industrial society without logistics. Sure, once upon a time a single prospector/miner could stake a claim and start digging. Of course they would almost certainly starve/freeze to death or end up giving up. Even then, they were reliant on middlemen to actually profit in any way from it. Ultimately, both are needed to actually make everything in the real world happen.
Th
Re: no jobs (Score:2)
Hi chatgpt. Welcome to the conversation.
So the Chief is going to ... (Score:4, Insightful)
What About CEOs? (Score:5, Insightful)
CEOs seem like the absolute ripest jobs for AI replacement.
Why won't he consider replacing himself first?
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Re: What About CEOs? (Score:2)
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how am I supposed to bullshit with an AI about golf to get my pet projects priority?
If it's anything like current LLMs, I think the answer is: really, really easily. Of course, it will be just as easy for the next person along, and the AI will end up just agreeing with everyone.
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* well, partially.
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Doubtful. Like it or not, too much of the CEO job is not easily automated. It's about connections, what palms to grease, when to bend/break the rules, lobbying, applying political pressure, navigating competing interests... a company actually lead by a bean-counting AI would fail miserably.
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AI by walking around
He’s a visionary. (Score:5, Insightful)
It’s so stupid. Do you honestly believe this will happen, where real money is on the table?
I am sure there’s nuance: he’s saying it *could* happen, I suppose, and only if companies endorse his view. If they don’t, and stay in the dark ages, then that’s on them.
Sounds like the same drivel we get from Muskie.
He’s probably been told by someone he’s not visionary enough. So he gets out there with some projection, because everyone is doing it, and no one seems to pay a price for getting it wrong.
Good grief.
Re:He’s a visionary. (Score:5, Insightful)
Muskie really changed the way Americans talk about buisiness.
His success is mostly through massively overhyping and overpromising things, most of which haven't just missed their deadlines but have never been made.
But that didn't stop him from becoming the richest due in the world, so why shouldn't everyone else act the same way? Clearly it works.
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One of the few nice things about being in our current post-prosperity dystopian hellscape is that we now have prediction markets for everything.
If you disagree that AI will be taking over all white collar jobs within 18 months (and you probably should), you can make a wager against it.
Likewise, if you think that the AI bubble will be bursting in 18 months and the market will suddenly be flush with surplus AI data center storage, you can place a wager on that as well.
Re:He’s a visionary. (Score:5, Insightful)
You can't make sensible predictions in a world run by clowns.
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Panic-induced vision. (Score:2)
I am sure there's nuance..
A representative from a global leader in corporate desktop operating systems, made a statement that AI could effectively replace all white collar jobs within 18 months. That's about as nuanced as North Korean poetry on personal freedom read aloud before the firing squad marches in. Remember when AOC said the world would end within 12 years if we didn't heed every warning being shamed upon the peasants by ignorant 15-year old environmental activists pretending to understand how the world works? Well, take
Re: He’s a visionary. (Score:2)
Call me when⦠(Score:2)
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(which I hope does not happen to you)
Re:Call me when⦠(Score:5, Insightful)
It isn't THAT it will fail to match your PhD in Physics, it is that enough yokels will BELIEVE it can match your PhD in Physics. I think that is where the real danger lies.
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His PhD in physics is in every mathematics and physics textbook ever written. How long will it take for AI to gain his experience? That's the only unknown. It may be next year, or perhaps never.
Absurd (Score:5, Insightful)
Even if all this capability were available today (AI doing most white collar jobs with no need for input or babysitting), most companies can't even do things like a simple ERP upgrade in 12-18 months. The idea that we could actually implement all of that AI capability in that amount of time is patently absurd.
Re: Absurd (Score:2)
You have to use AI to implement the AI.
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But then you need AI to make sure the AI is doing what AI is supposed to do. And then AI to mind the AI minder that minds the AI. I guess it's AI all the way down!
Start with HR? (Score:4, Insightful)
Man selling software overstates its capabilities 2 (Score:3)
Again with these slashverts ?
Re:Man selling software overstates its capabilitie (Score:5, Funny)
I'm reminded of the old joke:
What's the difference between a used car salesman and a computer salesman?
The used car salesman knows when he's lying.
Microsoft (Score:3)
Everyone at Microsoft has gone bat shit crazy! Woohoo!
"We don' need no stinking CUStomers!" (Score:4, Informative)
He has to say that (Score:2)
The very nature of his position basically requires him to. Most of us don't believe that if it ever will happen it would be that fast. In 18 months he can say the same thing again and still keep is salary and get a bonus.
Did you see the GitHub flow docs yesterday? (Score:2)
He has continvoucly morged his rel, branch back to add a new featue over Timn.
No, I'm not having a stroke. That's just the best that their best AI can do, and nobody gave a shit to even check that the giant diagram that explained everything in a simple graphical form... you know... didn't look like an AI image generator tried to generate text.
Can they start with AI Chiefs jobs? (Score:3)
This is just a suggestion - AI jobs are very well paid and done at the computer.
Automating them first will bring huge savings...
Especially AI Chief jobs should be easy to automate
Non-paywalled source (Score:3, Informative)
AI bubble bursting at the seams (Score:3, Interesting)
Their shrieks are getting louder and more desperate.
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This.
Where I work, everyone was going gaga over AI a year or so ago and almost every discussion involved a comment such as "have you tried AI for it yet?" or "I used AI and look what it did".
Now I very rarely hear AI mentioned in discussions. I see a few people using it here or there to help write a report or tidy up a presentation but apart from that, most employees here seem to have gotten over it and moved on.
I suspect that they are getting worried that they are committing $billions to data centers and
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Like everyone else our company was asked to investigate AI. I asked it recently to create some Python code as I don’t know Python that well. On the surface the code looked fine but it would not run. The problem is AI does not get the details right.
In one part of the code, it needed to call a member of an array. The code was something like "x = array(i)”. It should have been "x = array[i]" Not knowing the difference between a function and an array was just one problem. In 18 months, I doubt AI
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Yeah well (Score:2)
He pointed to exponential growth in computational power and predicted that creating a new AI model will soon be as easy as "creating a podcast or writing a blog."
Most blogs and podcasts suck.
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He pointed to exponential growth in computational power and predicted that creating a new AI model will soon be as easy as "creating a podcast or writing a blog."
Most blogs and podcasts suck.
So does most Microsoft software! So perhaps their AI chief has a point, at least for his own company...
AI should take executive jobs first (Score:3)
How hard can it be to make an app that talks to the media while apparently on drugs? Makes impossible predictions with zero irony. And still has the balls to demand a raise when they lay off big portions of the revenue generating business?
I say, let's use machine learning to take over the decision making process in corporations, as these jobs are very high paying and the requirements are very low, even only 50% correct is considered a high performing executive.
You're Doing Just What He Intended (Score:5, Insightful)
This is about making attention-grabbing claims that get them press (as it's done here). These predictions don't have to come true because no one is ever going to hold him to it. It doesn't impact their stock price if that date comes and goes without happening. But it does get people to pay attention (as everyone in this thread is) and talk about Microsoft and AI, which is the entire intention. If he said it'd be in 10-15 years, no one will pay attention. That's too far away to care. But by saying it's really soon, he's gotten the media and our attention, putting Microsoft right there in the conversation.
An Eye-Raising Claim From Any AI Company, But ... (Score:2)
Look, when someone from Anthropic, or OpenAI, or even Google makes some outrageous claim like this, I take at it with a giant heaping of salt ... but I at least consider that the person speaking might know more than I do, and might actually be telling the truth. Probably not, but it's possible.
But Microsoft? Come on, those people can't even get their "copilot" to do even half of the things real AI companies can do, despite having more money than God to throw at the problem ... and I'm supposed to trust th
Not afraid. (Score:3, Insightful)
Didn't they say this 36 months ago? (Score:2)
And 35 months ago and 34 months and 33 months ago...
No it won't, that's stupid (Score:4, Interesting)
If AI can't figure out something simple like that, where the class name explains what to do, how does anyone think in 18 months, all white-collar work will be done with AI? AI is useless if the person driving it, isn't aware, and so all that will happen is the slop effect will get worse.
Last gasp of hype (Score:5, Insightful)
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You think AI is used for commercial purposes. I think that AI was created for surveillance purposes and that the commercial purposes are merely a method for spreading out the eye-watering costs.
You see the commercial failure as an end to the AI nonsense. I see the commercial failure as calling for new taxes. I sincerely hope that you are one who is correct here, but I have seen human nature in all of its aspects.
Have your AI email my AI (Score:2)
AI is not intelligent. It's just generating boilerplate language based on past patterns of communication that sounds like a manager's self-help book. It will be the death of critical thinking and process improvement.
80% more likely and still quite a lot. (Score:3)
You need gatekeepers, planers and people talking to other people in businesses. Not _all_ of those will be replaced by AI. However, it is really not that unlikely that seasoned senior developers - like, f.i. me - actually _will_ be out of a job in 18 months. I've been mentally and emotionally preparing for this possiblity since early last year.
What I find very interesting to experience and hadn't consciously anticipated was the speed of transition. In hindsight it's perfectly logical, but I wasn't ready for this. When a bot closes in on your coding skills and surpases them it's not that your salary goes down a bit or you shift your focus-area a little bit. No. You're out of an effing job. Like, basically instantaniously. Society might not notice right away and you might have a few months or perhaps a year do prepare for the inevitable, but your job will just dissolve into a pink cloud of logic. Quite literally actually.
What's also interesting is that the world won't really care if us IT nerds lose our lofty throne. We are one in a few hundred or perhaps even thousands. Nobody cares. The real party starts when the robots come and take regular peoples jobs. That's what I'm really scared about.
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Note the prediction is given for all office jobs, not just tech workers. That would be over half of the work force.
If things get to the point that is displaces senior developers, then it can displace the vast majority of those workers too.
However, regardless of how AI works or doesn't, I do think either way the software industry is in for a reckoning. The industry broadly just isn't innovating in most areas and many of the areas where there is innovation doesn't have a lot of interest. Much of what people
Good luck with that (Score:2)
Good idea! (Score:2)
Yeah, let CoPilot do all their work. It'll probably do a better job than they did when they decided to remove Wordpad from Windows 11 and add features to Notepad that nobody wanted. Oh, and cripple Paint, aside from adding AI to it
Most blogs and podcasts suck, so good luck (Score:2)
I'll take that bet (Score:2)
Bad assumption (Score:2)
Exponential compute resource does not mean exponentially more capable.
In fact, capability is more logarithmic, just obscene investments in resource produce marginally better results. The biggest gain is how long the models can keep up generating tokens in a coherent looking way, but the quality of the product represented by those tokens remains flawed in now familiar ways. Most painfully the flaw are non obvious.
Gave claude opus 4.6 a cakewalk of a task today, maybe 100 lines of code to generate. The out
Lag would make this unrealistic, in any case... (Score:2)
The thing I don't hear a lot of talk about is the reality I've seen with all the different flavors of ChatGPT and other AI tools out there. The system performance just doesn't seem to be there in a way that's as reliable as human labor on given tasks?
I admit I never worked with one of the commercial packages -- so maybe I'm just a victim of the kind of throttling they're doing on free tiers? But for example, just last night? I played with Microsoft co-pilot, instructing it to create a Windows background/wa
Lmao (Score:2)
AI reflects it's training data, which happens to consist of years of work by billions of thinking people, so it looks like thinking because it's a reflection of it, but it's thinking done ages past by real humans in different situations, it's not thinking done by AI.
Sounds fine (Score:3)
Honestly I'm sure they're right, all of it can be automated. What's the worst that could happen? After all the only things AI can't do are:
- Understand Cause and Effect
- Apply "Common Sense"
- Avoid Hallucinations
- Handle Unexpected Situations
- Possess Empathy or Emotional Intelligence
- Perform True Creativity or Reasoning
- Make Ethical/Moral Decisions
- Multitask Effectively
- Know What it Doesn't Know
I'm sure nothing bad will happen when all white-collar work in the world is replaced by this
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It sounds like could replace politicians, today.
If MS doesn't fire all it's employees (Score:2)
If he truly believes this I would like to see him put his money where his mouth is and start mass firing MS employees and replacing them with AI.
I would love to see others call his bluff and asking him how many MS employees are going and when.
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He mass fired 15,000 people just last year.
Executives always think automation is easy (Score:2)
This has been a thing for decades. AI automation is still...incredibly hard to get right. That's not going to change in 18 months. This transition is going to be long and slow, despite its rapid bursting onto everyone's consciousness. (And by the way, AI didn't start with ChatGPT, I was playing with AI in the form of neural networks back in the 1990s. The technology hasn't been as quick to appear as people think.)
The ever-popular "18 months" (Score:2)
Return to office policy?? (Score:2)
Is this why M$ instituted a RTO policy last Fall of a minimum of 3 days per week for anyone within 50 miles of one of their offices?
ELI5 please
End of Western culture? (Score:2)
accounting, legal. I would be worried if it was.. (Score:2)
CEOs pushing hype like this (Score:2)
Not if O365 has anything to do with it... (Score:2)
My company uses Office365. After months of ignoring the "Use Copilot!!!" nagging, I was having a hard time finding an email and prompted CoPilot with information to find the email. It informed me that Copilot did not have access to my inbox for "security" reasons, and then gave me some generic text searches to try to enter myself.
If I'm going to be forced to use Microsoft's subpar agent and email at the office, at the very least they can make the damn things work together. If a company can't trust Micros
white collar woes (Score:2)
AI Chief at MS bullish on AI. Weird. (Score:2)
It will replace his job for sure (Score:2)
Really? (Score:2)
And if it does, who can afford to buy anything from M$$$ if no one's working?
Oh, it's not going to replace him, is it...?
who? (Score:2)
Wait a minute here. I checked, and this AI Chief is actually the Chief AI. To Serve Man.