Humanity Heating Planet Faster Than Ever Before, Study Finds (theguardian.com) 80
An anonymous reader The Guardian: Humanity is heating the planet faster than ever before, a study has found. Climate breakdown is occurring more rapidly with the heating rate almost doubling, according to research that excludes the effect of natural factors behind the latest scorching temperatures. It found global heating accelerated from a steady rate of less than 0.2C per decade between 1970 and 2015 to about 0.35C per decade over the past 10 years. The rate is higher than scientists have seen since they started systematically taking the Earth's temperature in 1880.
"If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5C (2.7F) limit of the Paris agreement before 2030," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the study. [...] The researchers applied a noise-reduction method to filter out the estimated effect of nonhuman factors in five major datasets that scientists have compiled to gauge the Earth's temperature. In each of them, they found an acceleration in global heating emerged in 2013 or 2014. The findings have been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
"If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5C (2.7F) limit of the Paris agreement before 2030," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the study. [...] The researchers applied a noise-reduction method to filter out the estimated effect of nonhuman factors in five major datasets that scientists have compiled to gauge the Earth's temperature. In each of them, they found an acceleration in global heating emerged in 2013 or 2014. The findings have been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Who cares (Score:5, Insightful)
I'm rich. I'm going to space. I'll see you guys roast from my telescope on Moonbase Alpha. Bye bye suckers.
470 employees and 29 million Euro budget (Score:2)
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/... [pik-potsdam.de]
"of about approximately 470 employees" and "PIK has an institutional budget of EUR 29 million".
From https://www.energea.com/unders... [energea.com]
1 MW solar farm: $1M - $1.2M
10 MW solar farm: $10M - $12M
100 MW solar farm: $100M - $120M
This research agency's 29 million euro budget is about $33 million US dollars.
They could take 10% of their annual budget and build a 10 megawatt solar farm, to reduce glo
And the elected officials (Score:2, Flamebait)
There are (tens?) thousands of elected officials who use "climate alarm" as a campaign issue to win votes and win elections every year.
Shouldn't a small part of that election campaign money, office holder salary and staff money be better spent on building solar power generating plants?
It goes both for the "in favor of green energy" and "not in favor of green energy" political campaigns since both left and right need stable, well proven, money winning, and election winning campaign issues to ensure that they
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It would be wonderful if we lived in a world where there was simply no question that, whoever gets elected, they would do the right thing as far as the environment goes.
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It would be wonderful if there were any agreement on what "the right thing" is. But there never will be.
Your reply will demonstrate why.
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Your reply will demonstrate why.
It will? Cool.
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They never have to do anything other than feel good symbolic plans or micro-regulations, just have to keep on the perpetual campaign trail.
The amount of money to be made leading the charge against the latest crisis guarantees that the people in charge not only won't make any effort to solve the problem, but they will actively prevent it from being solved. Once it's solved, you have to move on, and maybe (gasp!) get a real job.
Re: 470 employees and 29 million Euro budget (Score:1)
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So you believe their research? Climate change is done, we're all onboard? Politicians, decision makers, the general public has seen enough and we're all in agreement it's happening and mainly human caused? Now that the descriptions is settled we can fully focus on the prescriptions?
Under those conditions then yes, I agree.
If this is just the teenage argument of "if you think taxes are good why don't you just give all your money to the government. eheheheh" then obviously then you've double justified their e
Re:470 employees and 29 million Euro budget (Score:5, Insightful)
They could take 10% of their annual budget and build a 10 megawatt solar farm, to reduce global warming and reduce pollution, every 5 years.
Or they could do their actual job and their findings could convince the public, the government, and potentially private industry that it is worth investing far, far more than that into building GigaWatts of solar every year.
The research agency was founded 34 years ago, in 1992, and could have been building multiple solar farms to take direct action against global warming caused by pollution, but they did not.
And everyone could be baking their own bread, driving their own garbage to the dump instead of leaving it out for the collector, or doing their own surgery. Heck, some people do. Generally though specialization actually works. True, it's a question of balance and things sometimes get over-specialized, but I don't think this is one of those circumstances. They are a research institute that does climate research. However big they may seem to you, their budget is actually minuscule compared to the problem. They are supposed to do research that can help guide policy, which deals with resource management on a scale many orders of magnitude above their budget.
You seem to be pushing some form of individual responsibility argument where the burden of dealing with the issue falls on small actors. An example would be water conservation. Overuse of water is an issue, so we want people to conserve water in the home. I am personally all for that. There's no reason (despite the claims of some that you need to flush the toilet ten times, fifteen times, as opposed to once) that you shouldn't have an efficient toilet because a properly designed one just needs one flush with only a fraction of the water of an old fashioned toilet. There's no reason that other appliances shouldn't be water efficient either. However, residential water usage is about 8% of all water usage. While it's good not to be wasteful, focusing too much on fussing about residential usage when a tiny increase in industrial or agricultural water efficiency surpasses what is even possible in residential savings is a poor use of time and effort. Just getting 20% more farms to use drip irrigation would probably exceed any gains that could be made in residential water usage.
So, it seems to me that's what you're doing here, but to an even greater degree. Putting 10% or even 100% of their budget towards building solar panels would not make a dent, but the data from their studies could.
In this case 34 years of talking talking and talking more has not built any pollution reducing green energy power generating plants.
The problem here is that you have not actually provided any evidence of your assertion that their research has not led to any improvements. Institutes like this are, in fact, the ones who figure out which are the most serious problems to tackle and which are the easiest problems to tackle that can do the largest amount of good. If we ignore the actual differences in available technology over those 34 years (and variations in their budget), you're saying that they could have roughly built about 68 MW of solar capacity over their existence. Even if we outright ignore capacity factors, that would be around 10.43 TeraWatt-hours (I hate Watt-hours, but it's what everyone uses). If we use the approximate 1 ton of CO2 produced per MWh from using coal for electricity, that would prevent about 10,431,000 tons of CO2. That would be about 380,000 tons of methane. Or about 2,607 tons of HFC-404A refrigerant, etc. Policies preventing methane dumping into the atmosphere and phasing out problematic refrigerants as well as many others eliminate vastly more greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere than the usage of their budget that you are proposing. Those policies are created based on the recommendations of research like the kind produced by this institute.
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There is massive investment just waiting to go into renewables, but governments and NIMBYs are blocking them. It's insane.
Not just in the US, although the Trump administration is one of the worst. The UK could open up a lot more, e.g. the North Sea could be full of turbines.
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There is massive investment just waiting to go into renewables, but governments and NIMBYs are blocking them. It's insane.
I think that the problem is that it quite literally is insane. Anyone suggesting that wind turbines cause cancer through the sound they make, just as a random example, obviously need either serious remedial education, therapy, or medication with anti-psychotics. Whichever it is, it is quite literally completely insane that anyone who states and/or believes anything like that should be anywhere near policy making roles.
You first (Score:2)
This is a "You first build something instead of endless meetings, speaking and research pieces and then we can discuss the research".
We are in this together and perpetual meeting attendees for decades speaking the loudest how to spend other people's money to fix the problem need to go first with their own money to prove their commitment to solving the problem.
Only 1% to 5% of the budgets of these talk only entities, on a national scale would fund multiple 10 megawatt solar farm projects each year.
Since the
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Honestly the world would be a better place if we took every rich fuckwit with a rocket and sent them to another planet on a one-way trip. Oh and they should take Trump with them, it's not like they can suck his dick remotely.
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I drink without a straw.
And actually I sometimes drink directly from the bottle, you know :P
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"tRuMp!" Seriously, if the millions of "Vote Blue" assholes
I'm sorry did I use a word that triggered you? I don't vote, I'm not American, as a completely impartial outsider I can simply see an inhuman piece of shit for what they are. Maybe one day you can too.
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Re:We so needed ANOTHER study to confirm this... (Score:5, Insightful)
Such a necessity. ANOTHER study. Really, fundamental. We don't have enough of those, right?
Science (real science) does require additional studies (using different methodologies and underlying data) to confirm the conclusions.
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You copy-paste this BS every time a story about climate changes appears, ignoring the fact that almost all your claims have been disproven.
Time to find a new windmill to tilt against. This argument has more holes than Aerogel.
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Agree that we need follow-up scientific studies.
Also, agree that 75 years of think tanks, government agencies, research centers, etc. studying climate change is such a mature industry that 5% of their budgets should go into direct building of solar generating farms around Europe, USA, Canada, Japan, NZ and Australia starting today.
75 years of talking, researching, talking, researching, writing opinion pieces, being on the news is 100% spreading awareness and, the opportunity cost of not taking direct action
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Or, how about using 0.05% of budget of the industries they identify of causing the problem for that purpose instead? It would produce a heck of a lot more solar farms than your idea. Seriously, this whole thing seems a heck of a lot like DARVO. Take the ones raising the alarm about a problem and declare them the ones somehow responsible for it.
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It is good to have model updates based on more data. All physics predictions are, by the nature of the science, necessarily limited in range - you approximate a solution around a point where you have valid initial and border conditions. Besides, because the models themselves are increasingly complex, they improve significantly with more work and through validation.
I know these words are long and hard to grasp, but to put it in Neanderthal man terms, while you know the principles (the sabertooth is stalking
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The 1.5C target was missed a decade ago (Score:4, Insightful)
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Lighten up, Francis, and read that quote once again. Or let me remove the words that confuse from that statement and re-state it in a simpler way:
Now, this piece that you interpret as someone "yelling to keep things under 1.5C limit"
"If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5C (2.7F) limit of the Paris agreement before 2030,"
Actually says this:
"Shit's warming up so badly, that we'll go hotter than the magic 1.5C in 2030 already and this will only get worse later". Or, to use the "AI" for a more polite way of saying it:
If the earth keeps getting hotter at the same speed it has for the last 10 years, we'll pass the temperature goal that countries agreed to in the Paris agreement before the year 2030.
See? You're actually arguing with the point you're making.
Re: The 1.5C target was missed a decade ago (Score:2)
I think they decided that the 20 year average should be over 1.5 so it is quite difficult to achieve by 2030. The next 3 years would have to be warmer than this year, probably, I think, I guess
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It is hot enough already, if you ask me and it hasn't gotten colder in the past few years, just warmer. But since we're going down from the solar activity peak last year, we can observe if the effects of the solar cycle can be felt, as some claim.
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Solar cycles are about 11 years long.
And the difference between a max and a min is nearly insignificant.
No idea what you learn in school ...
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please go be stupid somewhere else.
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Says the one who does not know what a solar cycle is and its effect ... lolz.
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There are no "cycles", stupid, the Sun isn't your mom. It is a disk of fire nailed to the Heavenly Firmament.
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Then google it ... or stay stupid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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The alternative is to start talking about a different number. All that will achieve is climate deniers saying "You moved the goalposts!" "See Science doesn't know what it's doing!" in a misinformation campaign to make matters worse.
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Just move Mar-o-Lago to Greenland... (Score:2)
No problem.
We can just move Mar-o-Lago to Greenland...
And it will be true Green-land - not what these lame Danes are doing. With beautiful green golf courses all around... It will be the most beautiful...
nothing was so beautiful before... and big...
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"We'll have that medical confirmation by the end of the year." So what you are saying is that la Presidenta will be totally senile by the end of the year instead of only half way there. Thanks for the confirmation.
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we're being manipulated by the upper class which has manipulated us into fighting amoungst ourselves instead of protecting our rights and freedoms
If you make a list of the freedoms the right and left want to take away you will find they are different but both very substantial lists.
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If you want to find a deranged cult, look in the mirror!
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No, at that point, Trump will be forgotten, and people will be praising him, while bitching about whoever is the #1 Right wing leader then. Just like these days, even Nancy Pelosi praises the Bushes, even though 20 years ago, they used to call Bush Hitler
Beautiful (Score:2)
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And? That's part of a natural cycle that happens over tens of thousands of years. The thing is, there is ample evidence that the last major conversion into desert was rapidly advanced by human activity. Climate scientists are also well aware of such deserts. So, really, I'm not sure what your point is supposed to be.
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And savannah covering what is now the Sahara Desert. Hannibal didn't have to travel to sub-Saharan Africa to capture his war elephants. Their range extended right up to the Mediteranian and Carthage.
The dry periods actually began during the Old Kingdom in Egypt. Messing up agriculture, the economy and policics. Ending around 2000 BCE. So nothing to do with coal, SUVs or beef cattle.
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Half right half wrong.
You are 4000 years off.
Of course Hanibal had either to breed his Elephants north of the sahara or get them from the south ...
True is that during roman times the north was more green: because of forests.
The Sahara started to emerge around 6000 BC ... because of the earth precession and changing insulation and hence Atlantic stream patterns and rain.
Spaghetti approach to data analysis (Score:1)
We throw the spaghetti on the floor. We select 3 strands of spaghetti that emphasise the trend we wish to promote. We ignore the rest. We call 10 years of a trend climate. If a 10 year trend is climate then the Pause (of great entertainment) was climate.
The spaghetti method is similar to Mann's method with proxies for the hockey stick, select those which strengthen the desired outcome, ignore the rest.
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We throw the spaghetti on the floor. We select 3 strands of spaghetti that emphasise the trend we wish to promote. We ignore the rest. We call 10 years of a trend climate. If a 10 year trend is climate then the Pause (of great entertainment) was climate.
The spaghetti method is similar to Mann's method with proxies for the hockey stick, select those which strengthen the desired outcome, ignore the rest.
Otherwise known as "Statistics."
Re: Where's the temperature increase? (Score:2)
Re:Where's the temperature increase? (Score:5, Insightful)
Look at the glaciers in the Alps. Notice how they are retreating. Look at Arctic ice, notice how it is decreasing. Notice the American West. Notice how it is becoming desiccated. Look at average sea level. Notice how it is increasing. Look at the advance of tropical diseases. Notice how they are moving northward in the northern hemisphere and southward in the southern hemisphere (mosquitoes really like warmer climates). Look at the heat waves. Notice they are increasing in number and frequency. Look at the two fire seasons in the American West. Notice how it is becoming a years long fire season.
Look at the inflammation in climate deniers brains. Notice how it is increasing.
Nope, no global warming here.....hint, that last one is a dead giveaway.
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Look at the glaciers in the Alps. Notice how they are retreating. Look at Arctic ice, notice how it is decreasing.
Perfectly normal for the end of an ice age.
Look at average sea level. Notice how it is increasing.
It's dropping near me. Due to isostatic rebound. There used to be no ice in the Arctic. And little or none in Antarctica. There were grasslands and forests. Petrified forests have been found confirming this. Found very near what is the present day sea level. So, sea levels may have been lower at the peak of the ice age. But we are very near the "no ice" equilibrium.
The whole "sea will drown the poors living in river deltas" is just an excuse for them to migrate t
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The last "ice age" ended 12,000/10,000 years ago.
The current melting of glaciers is normal for excess CO2 production by humans ... though.
You should read a book about the topic, or stay stupid.
Up to you.
And little or none in Antarctica.
Because Antarctica was not at the pole at that time but at the Equator. Stupid idiot.
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Because Antarctica was not at the pole at that time but at the Equator. Stupid idiot.
No. It has remained below 60 degrees South latitude for about the last 300 million years [adelaide.edu.au] Trees grew there as recently as 53 million years ago [bbc.com].
Antarctica was not far from where it remains today, with Australia still to break off.
It's just reading. Try it sometime.
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Does not matter if it actually was below 60 degree: fact is it was not at the pole!
And hence it had a "normal" climate that supported trees.
Now you can make the planet as warm as you want, and there will be no trees ever. Because they would not survive a 3month darkness period.
Thinking ... what good is reading if you are to daft to think?
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Your argument is a form of selective skepticism. You highlighted real measurement imperfections but then ignored the larger body of evidence that checks and corrects for them. Pointing to the United States Climate Reference Network proves little. It covers only the United States and only about 20 years of data, far too small and short to judge global climate trends. When its data are compared with adjusted U.S. datasets maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the warming trend is
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Using carefully sited stations, the USCRN shows very little change over the past 20 years.
But when combine all the data instead of a few stations, it shows there has been a significant temperature increase. You should look at the study to find your answer: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.... [wiley.com]
The companies that argued in favor of allowing the continued use of tetraethyllead in gasoline used a similar tactic in congressional testimony, omitting vital details.
Not just humans anymore. (Score:2)
Cascading effects have already been kicked loose. It's not unlikely that the planet is already on it's way too a new equilibrium with or without us. That's the actual scary part. In short, it's likely we're already screwed. However, how hard is still up to us. So no excuses, we have to get this eco turnaround finished yesterday.
Good intentions and wishful thinking (Score:3)
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Re: Good intentions and wishful thinking (Score:2)
Re: Good intentions and wishful thinking (Score:2)
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Generally speaking, traditionally made charcoal isn't really a problem from a greenhouse gas perspective because it's carbon neutral. All of the energy that goes into its initial pyrolysis and released when it is burned comes from the atmosphere in the first place and the energy comes from the sun. That doesn't mean there can't be other forms of pollution. Indeed smoke from charcoal burning in Africa by the Romans apparently used to reach Rome itself sometimes and caused significant deforestation. Hopefully
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Short of a major catastrophe that wipes out at least half of the human population suddenly,
You say this like it's a bad thing.
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I do not know why people make such stupid comments.
Currently we have an CO2 output of X.
If half the population dies, it is X/2.
Best case.
Worst case: that half is in so bad shape that they produce something between X/2 and X.
And?
The temperatures will still be rising. /FACEPALM - stupid morons.
Artificial CO2 production needs to go to ZERO. And killing all the people above median CO2 production, does not cut it to ZERO. Killing "random people" will do much less.
Solutions (Score:2)
Study finds (Score:2)
Study finds most studies are bogus.
Need for eye exam (Score:2)
Again disappointed by the lack of Funny here, but I have one. I misread the title as "Humanity HEALING Planet..." and when I opened the story I was expecting to see good news. (And I get plenty of eye exams.)
People idling cars in parking lots (Score:2)
everywhere. I swear people didn't do it near as much when I was a kid. Now any parking lot I'm in has at least 2 cars idling.
On top of that, people just keep buying bigger cars.
And then you throw in more people driving for busy work as uber or whatever. The planet is gonna drive itself to death.