Asteroid 2024 YR4 Will Not Impact the Moon (esa.int) 11
Ancient Slashdot reader alanw shares a report from the European Space Agency (ESA): Last year, an approximately 60 meter near-Earth object captured global attention. For a brief period, asteroid 2024 YR4 became the most dangerous asteroid discovered in the last 20 years. While an Earth impact was soon ruled out, the asteroid faded from view with a lingering 4% chance of striking the Moon on 22 December 2032. Now, that risk has been eliminated. Astronomers have confirmed that 2024 YR4 will not impact the Moon using new observations made by the Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) on the NASA/ESA/CSA James Webb Space Telescope. Instead, it will safely pass the Moon at a distance of more than 20 000 km.
Thank God (Score:1)
apophis solution (Score:1)
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:3)
Scientists with a margin of error headline! (Score:2)
We need more science articles which quote the margin of error or estimated percentage chance of event X!
It is kind of odd how the once in a bias towards classifying and derisking estimates to a 1000 year flood estimate is preferred by home builders, city property taxing agencies, politicians, insurance companies, etc. when derisking as a bias is not favored in climate research estimates, hurricane path estimates, and other news/money donation/attention grabbing areas.
Re: (Score:2)
With the new measurements, the 3-sigma uncertainty on trajectory approaching the moon is now down to 2300 km, ruling out a collision. The previous estimate from June 2025 had an uncertainty of 74000 km, wide enough to include the moon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Re: Scientists with a margin of error headline! (Score:1)
"Covariance realism," as we call it, is hard. You want more than 3 or even 5 sigmas to account for all the little unmodeled measurement biases that can stack up arithmetically rather than in quadrature.
Safely? (Score:4, Interesting)
Instead, it will safely pass the Moon at a distance of more than 20 000 km.
20,000 kilometers is 12,427 miles which just happens to be almost the same diameter of Earth. When considering the vastness of space, missing something by the diameter of Earth is hardly safe.
Thats good news (Score:2)
For the people that live on the moon.
Anyway a lunar impact (is not as dangerous for loonies as an earth impact would be for inhabitants on Terra.
Theres no oceans to create tsunamis in, or atmosphere to spread the blast effects long distance. No climate change to worry about either.
We have the technology. (Score:4, Interesting)
While we keep discovering that near-Earth asteroids like these will not impact the moon, we have the technology to rectify such issues. NASA's DART project showed that we have the capability to deflect objects away from Earth. [slashdot.org] This implies that given the proper care, we should be able to redirect objects to an intercept path. While this opportunity has slipped through our hands this time, I believe with a significant investment, that we expand upon NASA's DART to bring forth a successful redirection of large objects like these to ensure the connection to either the Moon or Earth itself.
I'm not saying it's a good idea, I just feel that if we're going to fuck up the planet that we should stop half-assing it. [slashdot.org]
How rude! (Score:1)
Well screw you dude. I'll have you know that our moon is the largest in the solar system when compared to its planet. So, stick that in your asteroid pipe and smoke it 2024-YRJerk.