Thanks To Robots, Ukraine Is Now Talking About Winning, Not Just Surviving (defenseone.com) 228
fjo3 shares a report from Defense One: A small but growing number of European officials and analysts are saying what four years ago was unthinkable: Ukraine isn't just surviving its grueling war with Russia, it is in some ways thriving and may even be on a path to victory. This isn't yet captured in headlines -- for example, about last weekend's barrage of Russian drones and missiles around Ukraine -- but in the details, like how some 90 percent were intercepted. Several long-term trends have shifted in Ukraine's favor, and the core reason is its fierce focus on AI and robotics.
In the crucible of war, Ukraine has developed drones and ground robots that can hold territory -- even take it back. Some are fully controlled by humans, like supply robots and medical-evacuation vehicles. But an increasing number are controlled in at least some aspects by dozens of AI products, from guidance packages on aerial drones to decision aids at the highest levels. [...] Just as important as the tech are the new tactics. Given unusual latitude to experiment, Ukrainian fighters began to develop robot-forward infantry concepts, like combined-arms attacks by airborne and ground systems, "more than a year ago. Right now, we're massively starting to implement this," said Davyd Aloian, deputy secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, the coordinating body on domestic and international security, in an interview.
Ukraine and its partners are also steaming ahead on new concepts for highly autonomous defenses against Russian drones, combining ISR sensors and AI to detect and identify enemy drones in less time and with more certainty. "All of the systems are being linked with each other and with people" to create a distributed network with interceptor drones at various locations to be activated when needed, Aloian said. "One day we will have only like 10 guys who are just going to be responsible for approving interception. And it will automatically go direct to the target." The human operators will be dispersed as well. "Everything can be controlled from Kyiv, Lviv, from cities in other countries," he said. "It's not what happened to Ukraine" (referencing Russia's barrage of Shahed drones) that "should scare us in Europe," said Swarmer CEO Serhii Kupriienko. It's how quickly Ukraine's "middling" military evolved to counter Russia's invasion.
"We are behind by literally 10 years or 20 years" in some defense-technology areas, such as satellite imagery, Kupriienko said, and yet his country has climbed a capability curve that just two years ago seemed insurmountable. So could others, he said. "The answer is always AI solutions and integrating the AI into even the daily routine work within the bureaucracy," he said.
"We have evolved since 2022, the industry has and our defense has as well. Right now we are able to provide not only [large quantities of drone] assets but everything what is needed to build out the ecosystem," including parts and production, training, modification, etc. Aloian said.
In the crucible of war, Ukraine has developed drones and ground robots that can hold territory -- even take it back. Some are fully controlled by humans, like supply robots and medical-evacuation vehicles. But an increasing number are controlled in at least some aspects by dozens of AI products, from guidance packages on aerial drones to decision aids at the highest levels. [...] Just as important as the tech are the new tactics. Given unusual latitude to experiment, Ukrainian fighters began to develop robot-forward infantry concepts, like combined-arms attacks by airborne and ground systems, "more than a year ago. Right now, we're massively starting to implement this," said Davyd Aloian, deputy secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, the coordinating body on domestic and international security, in an interview.
Ukraine and its partners are also steaming ahead on new concepts for highly autonomous defenses against Russian drones, combining ISR sensors and AI to detect and identify enemy drones in less time and with more certainty. "All of the systems are being linked with each other and with people" to create a distributed network with interceptor drones at various locations to be activated when needed, Aloian said. "One day we will have only like 10 guys who are just going to be responsible for approving interception. And it will automatically go direct to the target." The human operators will be dispersed as well. "Everything can be controlled from Kyiv, Lviv, from cities in other countries," he said. "It's not what happened to Ukraine" (referencing Russia's barrage of Shahed drones) that "should scare us in Europe," said Swarmer CEO Serhii Kupriienko. It's how quickly Ukraine's "middling" military evolved to counter Russia's invasion.
"We are behind by literally 10 years or 20 years" in some defense-technology areas, such as satellite imagery, Kupriienko said, and yet his country has climbed a capability curve that just two years ago seemed insurmountable. So could others, he said. "The answer is always AI solutions and integrating the AI into even the daily routine work within the bureaucracy," he said.
"We have evolved since 2022, the industry has and our defense has as well. Right now we are able to provide not only [large quantities of drone] assets but everything what is needed to build out the ecosystem," including parts and production, training, modification, etc. Aloian said.
The Ukrainians aren't winning. (Score:4, Insightful)
The winners are all of the NATO defense contractors who are using this conflict to test all of their newest weapons systems. As it turns out, DJI is probably the best 'defense contractor' on the planet. What Ukraine hasn't learned is that you don't kill Russians, you maim Russians. That way 1) they live and 2) have to be cared for and 3) a man with no arms and one leg will be a reminder for decades.
Re:The Ukrainians aren't winning. (Score:5, Insightful)
3) a man with no arms and one leg will be a reminder for decades.
Putin would just parade then around as veterans to support the cause, gravestones are harder to put in parades.
Re:The Ukrainians aren't winning. (Score:4, Informative)
Re: The Ukrainians aren't winning. (Score:4, Informative)
Oh no, that's not how Russian culture works. He paraded them on may 9th simply because he has nothing else to parade around with.
During Vietnam, veterans here got treated like shit, especially by progressives. Guess what? In Russia, it has always been like that, and now more than ever. If they're disabled, they're seen as basically dogshit worthless. Actually Russia's bigger problem is the violent criminal offenders who were released in exchange for service, only not only were they sociopaths and/or psychopaths before, now they also have a meat grinder PTSD chip on their shoulder.
Re:The Ukrainians aren't winning. (Score:5, Interesting)
What Ukraine hasn't learned is that you don't kill Russians, you maim Russians. That way 1) they live and 2) have to be cared for and 3) a man with no arms and one leg will be a reminder for decades.
That doesn't work as well in the current conflict. Russia has been sending the seriously wounded back into the field even with barely functional legs and crutches, with the basic understanding that one man destroys one drone independent of how well he moves. This is also a large part of the reason that with "only" 1.3 million casualties, Russia has over 500k dead. A nation which values life will normally have something like 1:3 or 1:5 dead to casualty ratios and many recent conflicts with modern forces came to over 1:10 because of the effective evacuation and treatment available. That just doesn't apply in Ukraine.
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The Israel that drops leaflets warning people to leave beforehand...
The Israel that tells people to go to specific refugee camps and then bombs them.
Re: The Ukrainians aren't winning. (Score:2)
A lot of armchair strategizing here seems to be based on the theory "he won't dare to do that back!"
Re: a man with no arms and one leg will be... (Score:3)
Tis but a scratch.
It's just a flesh wound.
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Ukraine has famously been using old obsolete equipment cast off from NATO, not the latest greatest of anything beyond their own home grown stuff.
What is it with the pro-Russia position of the first two posts in this thread? Oh, wait, we know...
Slashdot, maybe it's time to block Russian IP addresses?
Re: The Ukrainians aren't winning. (Score:2)
Reminder that Russians are human beings like you and me, not animals. This is also true of people of other nationalities on the same frontlines. Many of them don't want to be there and don't really have a choice. There is no need for xenophobic rhetorics. The enemies are the rich and powerful elite who manipulate or coerce the poor and powerless to die so that the elite can remain rich and powerful.
To be clear (Score:5, Insightful)
It's all stupid. With more support, this war would have been over shortly after it began.
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Operation Spiderweb
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It's all stupid. With more support, this war would have been over shortly after it began.
Yes, probably. Save some money and effort in the short-term, have to invest lots and lots and lots more in the long one. Always the same crap with humans.
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Bush lied people died, and Putin concluded that the world is still one where they need to mainta
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Ukraine will never win, if Russia start to lose too much, nukes will start flying for sure. Best change they have is retake some (not all) of the lost land, nothing more
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if Russia start to lose too much, nukes will start flying for sure.
How do you know? Russia lost in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Syria, and Mali, and didn't use a nuke. They won't use a nuke.
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Nukes aren't really easy to contain. If Russia launches Nukes, that's the end of Russia, one way or another. There is absolutely no chance whatsoever the rest of the world wouldn't intervene at that point.
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It's all stupid. With more support, this war would have been over shortly after it began.
A quick win for Ukraine would not have weakened Russia the way the current war has.
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Biden told Putin, "If you invade Ukraine, we will sanction you!" And Putin said, "Sounds like a good deal to me." So here we are, Biden was better at deal making than Trump.
Re:To be clear (Score:4, Insightful)
Ukraine has already "gone to Moscow" with drones and missiles. They can hit targets over a thousand miles into Russian territory. Apparently they've also cut off Crimea. That's the actual target - not Moscow. No telling how long it will take for them to gain operational control of Crimea, but the groundwork is being laid now. Crimea is all but cut off from resupply, and now it's just a matter of starving out the Russians while picking away at their remaining defenses.
Putin's most ardent supporters in the media and blogosphere started turning on him months ago. He's sacked enough of his cronies already that it's unclear how much support he has left in his own government. There's no telling how much longer he'll last or how much longer the rest of Russia will be willing to keep up this war. Everyone knows Putin fucked up. He has to keep the war going to maintain his own office. Without it, his government and much of his wartime economic stance will collapse.
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Re:To be clear (Score:5, Interesting)
In modern war, the side with air superiority wins the war. The side with air superiority has weapons that can attack but can't be attacked back: that's too huge an advantage. The entire reason that Ukraine didn't fall in three months is because somehow Russia failed to establish air superiority. Ukraine managed to shoot airplanes out of the sky if they got too close. So it's a situation where neither side has superiority: a stalemate. Ukraine is building up their airforce [reuters.com]. When they've built it up enough to establish air superiority, they will win the war. European industrial production is powerful [united24media.com].
Drones are a challenge for Russia. As you cleverly called them, Wunderwaffen have come up from time to time in the conflict, from HIMARS to Baryaktar. They've presented challenges to the Russian military, but so far the Russian military has found a solution every time. Russia has presented problems to Ukraine as well, such as motorcycles and glide bombs. Ukraine has found an answer for them as well.
Currently drones have halted or maybe reversed [businessinsider.com] the Russian advance. Russia is working on a solution [youtube.com], and we will see if they overcome this challenge. If they can't it will be an embarrassing loss, much like Finland.
The real question will be if Russia can stop Ukraine's growing airforce. Currently Russia is losing anti-air systems faster than they can be replaced. Russia doesn't have the technology to match NATO air weapons, so the answer is no. But it might take until 2030.
Re:To be clear (Score:5, Interesting)
Agreed with most of it.
For a nitpick, but also tied to the narrative issues I talked about. The problem I find with the usual take on e.g. shells production, also found in the article you linked, is that while the EU producing shells for Ukraine is obviously good news for Ukraine, somehow North Korea producing shells for Russia is supposed to be bad news for Russia.
The reality is that Ukraine has their allies, and Russia has theirs, and both are good news for their respective war efforts.
And this kind of a thing is everywhere in war reporting. Everything about our side is good for us, everything about their side is bad for them, and nothing is looked into too deeply. My personal favourite - brave and cunning Ukrainians are using the railroads for great success; the reliance on railroad by the dumb and backwards Russians is holding back their war effort. We somehow need to blind ourselves, and hype ourselves up about what's going on, to keep high morale or whatnot, and in the process, we give up our ability to make honest and accurate assessments about the situation. That Ukraine was severely lacking in shells was known a long time ago to anybody who cared to know, but it took years for Rheinmetall get going. US never increased production, but they did increase prices to eat up all available funding. Had the people known about this on a widespread level, would we have demanded results? Would our governments and industry have delivered? The more cynical among us might find that reality is withheld from the us exactly because our governments don't want to do anything about it. But reality will come back to bite those who deny it, and will demand back what you owe it with harsh interest.
And we need to talk about the elephant in the room, China. The article claims European shell production might rival China, yet does not quote what Chinese production is. And that's because there's basically no known numbers to quote. But China did install 500k/year production capacity in Belarus last year, and they didn't break a sweat. The idea that Europe might match Chinese production on /anything/ is veering on the edge of absurd to me. Especially so because the CCP can just say that we now do this, and it will have happened, while in the EU there will be years of going through the motions before there's even any hope of something happening. In our war math we need to consider that China probably cannot afford to have Russia lose, so they will probably not allow Russia to lose, and it will probably not be too much of an effort for them. This also goes for the Ukrainian jets, and drones, and whatnot. If the Russians can not meet the challenge in some field, the Chinese will step up and match the game. Last, but not least, China recently came to market with dirt cheap, $99k hypersonic missiles, while the West basically lacks the rare earths for any missile production at all. Yeah, not good.
It is obvious to me that good information is necessary for good decisions. It's already bad that the public is widely mis- and underinformed, and fed prepackaged raw emotion and hate minutes instead. But more and more does our leadership also seem to drink their own Kool-Aid. This is not the path to success, but our leadership does not care either. The shit they throw in the fan will not be theirs to clean up.
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While I thank you for one of the most respectful disagreements I've received over the war years...
When Biden denied the Polish planes to Ukraine, I called the US lacked good will in the war, and that it would turn to shit as per Kissinger - being a US enemy is dangerous, but being a US friend is fatal. Back then I was ridiculed, now TFA says the war was considered lost already 4 years ago.
When the Nord Stream got blown up, I said I'm not big enough of an idiot to believe it's the Ruskies whodunnit blow up t
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In our war math we need to consider that China probably cannot afford to have Russia lose
Yes, of course they can. Nobody's going to invade China, and Russia losing just means they will be weak if China wants to invade them later. What premise was your statement based on?
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Russia is currently in the process of losing its supply lines for the whole south of Ukraine. Leaving quite a large number of Russians completely exposed and virtually helpless.
That is their current dilemma. We will see if they can manage to find a solution or not.
If they can't, it will be rather hilarious, in a dark humor sort of way.
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> Four years ago the situation was the complete opposite, it was unthinkable that Ukraine might not win the war.
This is completely untrue. When the war started pretty much everyone assumed it'd be a Russian walkover. It was a massive, and positive, surprise when Putin's jackboots turned out to be inadequate for the task of invading a mostly defenseless country, even more so given it was given very little help to defend itself outside of some donations of largely obsolete weaponry from sympathetic countri
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The current massive migration inside of the EU is already a problem
Good thing for colonialism, then, huh? Boo hoo hoo the people we robbed and raped and murdered want something back. You sound like the maggot Americans who cry about people from countries we've bombed and done coups in coming here.
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What BS logic is this?
Russian is weak. Their weapons are trash [youtube.com]. If Ukraine had been supported properly, the trenches wouldn't matter.
In Syria, Russian forces attacked 40 US marines with a force of 500 troops [wikipedia.org]. The Russians lost half their troops. The Americans had a single soldier injured.
The Soviet army mainly oppressed its own people. That's why it's not good.
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Did...you just imply that Israel wants to conquer the Ukraine?
Wow. Just...wow.
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There are plenty of Ukrainian sympathizers in the Russian government, even today. If Ukraine s
Technology is an extension of humans (Score:3)
War has always been about resources... for rulers, that includes human resources, the people they can get to implement their will for them.
Ukraine is just showing us how true this is - it doesn't matter what you attack the enemy with, you're trying to exhaust their resources before they exhaust yours. Better robots than people - maybe the next war can be entirely robotic and we can leave soldiers out of it.
It would be nice if technology could prevent the wars in the first place, but as long as there are humans in control I don't see that happening.
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maybe the next war can be entirely robotic and we can leave soldiers out of it.
Or we could like... y'know... stop killing each other over what a few tyrant leaders want. There will never be a war without soldiers because that would be the last line of defense in this rose-y scenario. Might as well just be Battle Bots where the war is decided in a cage match.
The key is China (Score:3)
The key is that China is not passing its key AI technology to Russia...
Keeping the war going on is in China's interest as it weakens both Europe and Russia but probably
it is not worth as much as giving its technology to Russia...
Re:The key is China (Score:5, Insightful)
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The key is that China is not passing its key AI technology to Russia...
Keeping the war going on is in China's interest as it weakens both Europe and Russia but probably it is not worth as much as giving its technology to Russia...
Even if China were to pass its AI tech to Russia, Russia no longer has the industrial base, nor the liquid assets to take advantage of it. And that's not counting the massive brain drain Russia experienced when almost 2 million men (many of them in tech) left at the start of the war.
Ukraine, OTH, hasn't suffered that type of brain drain and, thanks to Western support, it can carry a war economy and build AI-powered drone tech at scale.
This was a war for Russia to win if it hadn't become so incompetent a
Not just robots (Score:3)
Ukraine's remarkable self-defence is not just based on robotics, but technology in general from their real-time military intelligence system. Delta, to homegrown long range missiles, fiber-optic (human-guided) drones ,etc.
What it also highlights is how poor Russia's technology is, despite being a country previously famous for it's scientists and mathematicians. Maybe part of it is being relatively poor for such a large country (behind UK, Italy, France in terms of GDP) ,but there has to be more to it than that
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Maybe part of it is being relatively poor for such a large country [...],but there has to be more to it than that
Ex-superpower that can't afford it's lifestyle. Like the US will be in a few years if we don't sweep the idiots out of power.
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You let them get too entrenched. Good luck with peaceful options, but I don't see the US' issues being resolved without internal violence.
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Fibre optic drones actually have been introduced by russia first, last year or so. They also do use computer vision and a certain amount of other bleeding edge tech. Fortunately for Ukraine the sanctions work at least somewhat and China can supply only so much fibre optics. Even more fortunately, for all the technology, russian army sucks at communication between units.
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Fibre optic drones actually have been introduced by russia first
The FOGM was introduced in 1984.
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A good many of them coming from Ukraine. They were a technology and engineering powerhouse even back in Soviet times.
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What it also highlights is how poor Russia's technology is, despite being a country previously famous for it's scientists and mathematicians
Part of this is a myth perpetuated by Russia. The old scientific fame Russia claims is typically the old Soviet scientific fame, of which Ukraine was a significant, if not the most significant contributor
Under Putin, Russia lost a lot of that brain power. Ukraine never did, and despite being poorer per capita than Russia, it saw its old Soviet Ukraine science intelligentsia pivot into IT (which was one of Ukraine's few thriving sectors before the war)
This is a big lesson for the ages: human capital matters.
we heard this 100 times already (Score:2, Troll)
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They snatch civilian men from the streets and throw them into the battle zone to meet their death, and they still have the audacity to talk about winning
I have deposited 2 rubles in your account, comrade.
Re: we heard this 100 times already (Score:2)
When Russia send their brain in jail... (Score:2)
or to be killed in Ukraine, on its side, Ukraine give them everything they need to survive and be a brain.
Fine, I'll say it (Score:2)
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Ukraine is affecting their daily lives, by hitting their pocketbooks instead of wasting their attacks on "war crimes," i.e. hitting worthless targets which don't help end the war at all.
Murder a civilian and all you do is slightly sour their family against the war. Blow up an oil storage tank and you just made thousands of people have to suffer through inconvenience.
And worst of all, you heartlessly, viciously left them alive, where they'll remember how much poverty sucks, and they'll complain about it to
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blowing up important businesses, utilities, and wealthy civilians in Russian cities with single person attacks
Did you think Ukrainians are Muslim?
A rancid idea (Score:2)
To say that a country is thriving at the expense of suffering and loss of life is a grotesque and rancid idea.
It incentivises continued conflict in order to maintain benefit for the country.
To say that "Countries that fail to follow suit risk disaster" raises serious moral and humanitarian concerns direction
the world is heading.
Triumphalism vs. reality (Score:2)
Sorry but this is nothing but the usual triumphalistic propaganda that is cyclically released to justify was expenses (and relative welfare cuts).
I lost count of how many "definitive weapons" they spun up narrations for. Ukraine should have won with Himars, Abrams, F16s, you name it.
I hate Putin's guts, my sister-in-law is Ukrainian so this hits close to home for me, but I'm really sick of being treated like an idiot.
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Betteridge (Score:2)
I for one ... (Score:3, Insightful)
After every major war... (Score:2)
After WW1, the big military powers thought they had learned their lessons - and they had. They went into WWII prepared to win WWI. After WWII, the bin military powers learned their lessons, and went into...various places, ready to win WWII all over again.
The big military powers are now discovering that they are once again prepared to re-fight the last war. Ukraine - out of sheer necessity - has developed new doctrines. Worldwide, the general staffs are left holding their multi-billion dollar assets that h
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A point nobody seems to be raising... (Score:2)
Ukraine is doing a pretty good job of intercepting Russian drones. Funny that US bases in the Middle East have been rendered unusable by Iran's very similar, "last generation" drones.
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You want this war to end? (Score:2)
Stop paying for it.
False optimism - no permanent tech advantages (Score:3, Insightful)
There is no permanent tech advantage to either side in this war. Only the potential for peace is permanent
Ukraine used Turkish Bayraktars, Russians got Iranian Shaheds
Russians invented cope cages, Ukrainians got them too.
Ukrainians got FPV drones, Russians got them too
Russians invented fiber-optic drones, Ukrainians got them too.
Now if the Ukrainians get assault robotic and evac robots, the Russians will get them too
One side has most of Europe backing it; the other side has most of Asia. Too many resources behind both parties for either to lose easily.
Stop the fighting. There are no winners here. Only worse-off losers.
Both Russian casualties and Ukrainian casualties have long passed the 'unsustainable' mark. Now both side are getting close to the point where either side can tap out. But Ukraine is closer to that point than Russia. Yes, Russia is losing, but Ukraine is losing harder and faster - it has less land, men, money, and munitions than Russia. It is getting attrited faster. Ukraine has the bigger job ahead of it after the war - blowing up unexploded ordanance, demining, rebuilding, repopulating.
Ukraine needs to:
(a) make an offer that the Russians can at least use as a fig leaf to concede peace.
(b) Ukraine also has a problem with a section of insubordinate rightwing soldiery that resists any peace concessions. Ship them straight to the fight. Want to disobey? Go fight then! Just don't take the rest of the country with you.
Why? So Ukrainian people can live. So its current leader can live. So the country is not at risk.
Re:False optimism - no permanent tech advantages (Score:5, Insightful)
This analysis is simply wrong because Ukraine is not using humans as a resource as Russia is. Ukraine can send fewer and fewer soldiers to the front lines as long as they can prevent Russians from getting there in the first place. This is no longer a front like WWI with a large number of soldiers sitting in a manned trench looking out against a "no-man's land." Instead, we have a very wide grey zone of ~20km (and growing in many places) where drones hunt anything that moves. Only a small number of soldiers from either side actually sit at or even near the point of contact. Russia's only ability to advance has been sending large numbers of soldiers into the grey zone and hoping enough survive to consolidate control. If drones can mop up all of them, then the advance goes nowhere. If they can't get large numbers to the front, they can't advance at all. That's exactly what the current supply line denial campaign is about. It doesn't take many Ukrainian soldiers to do it.
The problem with "just cut a deal" is that the deal Russia has insisted on requires Ukraine giving up the most fortified areas of the front, which would leave the entire country exposed if Russia breached it. If they could be 100% sure that giving up the Donbas would result in a lasting peace with Russia letting them be, then I bet they would take it. But there is no way to do that.
Another mistake that many Western observers make is thinking that Russia will seek an exit if they can just "save face." Puttin doesn't care about "face" because this is existential for him. The economy will collapse if the war is shut down. War spending is now into double digits of the GDP. He's in his 70s. This war is his last chance to realize his life dream of reuniting the USSR and becoming "Vlad the Great." He can't just accept a fig leaf agreement and let it go because that's the end of that dream and likely his rule. Even the offer of "just give up the Donbas" probably isn't real. If Ukraine said "yes", they'd ask for more because they can't actually accept a real peace.
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Another mistake that many Western observers make is thinking that Russia will seek an exit if they can just "save face." Puttin doesn't care about "face" because this is existential for him. The economy will collapse if the war is shut down. War spending is now into double digits of the GDP. He's in his 70s. This war is his last chance to realize his life dream of reuniting the USSR and becoming "Vlad the Great." He can't just accept a fig leaf agreement and let it go because that's the end of that dream and likely his rule. Even the offer of "just give up the Donbas" probably isn't real. If Ukraine said "yes", they'd ask for more because they can't actually accept a real peace.
This is why the fastest way to end the conflict after Putin's ICC arrest warrant was issued would have been for the US and/or EU to fund a $billion+ bounty to any group that delivered him to the ICC to face the charges. His own security would sell him out in days, and if not, he'd be so paranoid he probably couldn't function.
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Nobody is doubting that Ukraine needs soldiers (and that need has indeed become critical at times), but Ukraine and Russia have very different staffing needs. Ukraine can (and has) automated more and more of their front-line staffing, but Russia fundamentally cannot automate the need of warm bodies to advance and establish control of new territory. Russia's "meat assault" and infiltration tactics combined with large grey zones making evacuation nearly impossible mean their attrition rate has gone way past t
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The only parties interested in a diplomatic settlement are outside of the conflict. Russia doesn't want one, Ukraine doesn't want one, and they're the only ones who count. Both would rather fight to the end. Ukraine's survival as an independent nation
Robots shmobots. (Score:2)
The only winning move (for either side) is the same as it was years ago: sincere diplomacy that works toward a permanent peace. The alternative is (essentially) a war of attrition, unless NATO is going to send a million troops to the front along with huge amounts of firepower, and if NATO was going to do that, it would have happened years ago. I suppose there is another alternative that is "unthinkable", but it's definitely there... *sigh*
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But, a snail would have gotten further into Ukraine than Russia has, and now Ukraine is able to strike targets anywhere in Russia.
Victory, and the sooner the better... (Score:3)
... and then to secure Ukraine into the European economic and defence structure as firmly as possible. At this point they're far ahead of NATO on how to use drones and robots in war, and they're clearly getting very, very good at building them too. European military and aerospace people both will have a lot to gain from cooperation with Ukraine after the war is over.
As cadets were so memorably told a generation ago: remember always, your duty is clear - to build and maintain those robots!
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Recognizing irony is key to transcending militaris (Score:2)
By me from 2010: https://pdfernhout.net/recogni... [pdfernhout.net] ...
"Military robots like drones are ironic because they are created essentially to force humans to work like robots in an industrialized social order. Why not just create industrial robots to do the work instead?
There is a fundamental mismatch between 21st century reality and 20th century security thinking. Those "security" agencies are using those tools of abundance, cooperation, and sharing mainly from a
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Our fundamental nature hasn't changed significantly since our distant ancestors were wandering around in small family groups.
Social structure flows from the fact that we're all social primates looking to have a popular / strong member of the group lead us against those 'others' we fear want our stuff.
Until that changes, you must assume that anything that can be bent to the task of benefiting one of us over others or one group of us over other groups will be. It takes a lot of effort to build up social stru
Re:Recognizing irony is key to transcending milita (Score:4, Insightful)
That's not just a primate thing. Although it's expressed in more visible complex social structures in primates, resource competition and need for defense at least and probably attack is a recurring theme across all living beings. The most defenseless of beings become those that breed the most effectively using the resources of all the others and essentially starving them out.
Seeing only that, of course understates such things as cooperation. Microbial groups come together to live and cooperate; however when they do that what they often produce is an environment that is toxic to all the other microbes (look at kefir or lactobacteria in yoghurt). That's their defense against defectors and enemies trying to take their resources.
If we want a social system that works well for everyone that has to be a social system that knows how to enforce the safety of its rules. We need to identify those people that are spreading Russian propaganda on social media, for example, and we need to ensure that they are completely and utterly dealt with. In social terms, we need to overcome the paradox of tolerance and not tolerate those that are absolutely intolerant.
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Did he google on how to derail a thread
Re:Insert Neocon war propaganda (Score:5, Interesting)
Do you really have to give a platform to this kind of Neocon war propaganda on your tech forum?
A bunch of people doing good technology work, quite a bit of it based around software development and AI technologies and using that to save lives in Ukraine and stop the Russian genocide there. I think that's pretty much "news for nerds" and so yes, I do think we have to have this here. Even more so because lots of the technologies have developed from open source
The real question is what kind of Vatnik mind would question that. Europe has spent hundreds of billions of dollars, probably even trillions over time, on buying expensive American hardware provided by the true inheritors of the neo-Cons - America's disaster capitalists. Now those expensive defense systems, like Patriot batteries and F-35s are completely useless because America kept control over manufacturing of the ammunition they need and won't provide things like PAC-3 interceptors or AIM-120 missiles in adequate quantities for European defense. Europe should really sell most of that expensive America equipment to someone like Israel or Saudi Arabia that America would supply and use the money to develop their own solutions or buy from Ukraine and France.
That makes stories like this, where technological solutions are being found to the problems caused by your neo-con biddies extremely relevant for European "nerds" at least.
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Re:Insert Neocon war propaganda (Score:4, Interesting)
Ukraine is using drones, most of them guided by humans or preprogrammed with coordinates.
That was the case up till recently. This came under serious pressure because of electronic warfare which attacked the remote control of drones by blocking the command connection and the pre-programmed attack drones by blocking GPS signals. The first real solution to that was the fibre-optic drone, but they have a limit to the fibre length of around 30-50km.
Ukraine is now many drones that have some kind of automatic targeting and, using current terminology, that would mean "AI" or rather deep learning and machine vision. This means that they can be piloted to the general area and then, if they lose communications, the automated algorithms can take over and complete the guidance to target, vastly increasing the proportion of drones that do damage.
Not anything i would call a robot. And i am sure they are using AI for decision support tasks but i seriously doubt AI has much to do with the drones. This is more propaganda to pump AI. I hope the bubble bursts soon.
You have to recognize that there is a bunch of stuff which is real. The Turing test has been pretty much busted. We are now able to operate on much larger neural networks and various applications are improved. One of the ones which is improved is automatic target recognition and interception, which is exactly what drones are quite often using. Cheap ARM processors with neural network support hardware provide energy efficient and sophisticated guidance for modern drones. That is an example of a real and actual advance from the modern AI hype.
Re: Insert Neocon war propaganda (Score:2)
I don't know if I qualify as a stupid hater in your world: I am impressed by LLMs but also generally unconvinced, at least in my line of work. I see valid use cases but also issues. Now with that being said: what is the solution to prompt injection? Regardless of how good LLMs are, and I believe that they can be excellent in certain cases, prompt injection is a design flaw with no solution after a few years. What kind of solution do you envision for that issue?
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Ukraine blows up a Russian refinery.
Russia bombs some random apartments and kills a dozen people in a random Ukranian city "in retaliation"
fuck off you stupid Russian troll.
Russia can just go home any time it likes...
Re: Insert Neocon war propaganda (Score:3)
So why did Russia direct not one, not two, but SIX guided bombs at a single apartment building in Kyiv?
Six. Let that sink in. Some independent investigators came and found no evidence of any Ukrainian military activity there. So what the fuck was that for?
By the way, Ukraine is peeling you guys off of Crimea right now, and there's nothing you can do to stop it. The rats you guys transplanted into it are out of gas, and right this minute are actively having to abandon the property you stole.
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The strike happened in occupied territory and Russia did not allow any independent accounts of the incident.
Kommersant reported that, after Latvia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Sanita Pavuta-Deslandes, questioned the veracity of Russia's account of the incident, the Russian Foreign Ministry invited foreign correspondents in Russia to visit Starobilsk. Zakharova said the ministry had received many requests from journalists and was forming a press pool for the trip, while claiming that BBC and CNN cor
Re:Insert Neocon war propaganda (Score:5, Interesting)
So: 1) Russia is lying about what went on in that building, 2) Ukraine acted on incorrect intel, 3) Ukraine accidentally hit the wrong building, or 4) Ukraine deliberately targeted a student dorm.
1 and 2 are plausible. 3 not so much: their strikes are generally precise, and Russia allegedly had no jammers or air defense assets in the area that could have caused drones to go off-course (as does sometimes happen in other strikes elsewhere). 4 is implausible; Ukraine has not much of a history of deliberately targeting civilian homes.
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Well, we know who has lost the argument [wikipedia.org]...
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i really like your sig! you can have my modpoints!
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Just because someone tries to make a list of rational and valid options, doesn't mean it supports either side.
War is wrong, both sides lose, truth is manipulated by both sides and while some people die, other get rich. Bad action happen on both sides, so accidents, we have no way to verify all and should not trust neither side reports without independent verification (that is usually impossible during wars)
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Just because someone tries to make a list of rational and valid options, doesn't mean it supports either side.
Which is not relevant here because the actual truth is missing
Ukraine actually hit a training academy of young drone pilots; a legitimate military target. Putin is angry because, long distance drone pilot being one of the cushy jobs in the war, one of the people killed was an actual Oligarch's son.
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a provocation that once again russia managed not to bite into, although it's getting progressively harder to do so as internal pressure mounts.
You know Russia could simply pull out and stop invading others' countries, right?
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for some reason they didn't like to have a 1mill strong army on their border
And yet they're not only not winning, but approaching defeat. And not to NATO itself, in its full might, but to Ukraine, with very minimal NATO support, and several opposed moves by the US.
A better, and much easier, solution, would have been for Russia to have applied to join NATO, and thus get all that support for themselves, so that down the line China doesn't take back the many disputed territories they have with Russia. Too bad the end result will be Russia losing to Ukraine and becoming so weakened the
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I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that he simply drew a location out of a hat and bombed it.
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It was all over the media, just like when Russia deliberately bombed a school in Mariupol on March 16, 2022 which had a message it was being used as a shelter. At least 600 people were murdered by Russia [apnews.com].
24 may, russian explicit retalliation mainly on kiev, an exceptionally massive str
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Re:Insert Neocon war propaganda (Score:4, Insightful)
Do you really have to give a platform to this kind of Neocon war propaganda on your tech forum?
News you don't like == propaganda?
Shit is happening on the tech front in the Russo-Ukrainian war with spillovers in the Middle East. We are witnessing a battleshift paradigm shift not unlike the widespread adoption of gunpowder, airpower and/or information technology....
Oh my sweet summer child.
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Support your claim that, "the Republicans have repeatedly said they will eliminate all voting rights if they didn't have the filibuster stopping them." With q
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Now, you may still be right. During Obama's administration, there were people talking about expanding NATO to include Ukraine, even though we had agreed not to do so and Ukraine was even then decades away from being eligible. As I recall, most of the people talking like that were outside of government, but Hillary had been doing some dumb stuff already - like collapsing Libia for no clear reason and despite Qa