Microsoft Claims New Quantum Chip 1,000 Times Better Than Before (bbc.com) 40
Microsoft says its new Majorana 2 quantum chip is 1,000 times more reliable than its predecessor, with qubits lasting about 20 seconds instead of milliseconds, and claims it could have a commercially useful quantum machine by 2029. The BBC reports: "We will have a quantum machine in 2029 that can solve commercially viable, reasonable problems," said Zulfi Alam, corporate vice president of Microsoft Quantum. That would still require huge further advances as such a device would require millions of qubits - the current chip, Alam said, has 12. Assessing the firm's claims are difficult because it does not release the full details of what it has discovered publicly, citing commercial confidentiality.
Microsoft has spent 20 years pursuing an approach to quantum computing known as "topological." The firm's approach to this is based on exploiting the properties of a so-called quasi-particle, which had existed only in theory, since it was first predicted in the 1930s by Italian physicist Ettore Majorana. To do this it had to exploit a novel state of matter - different from the three familiar states of liquid, solid or gas.
Paul Stevenson, a physics professor at the University of Surrey, said the tech giant's timeline sounded plausible - if its research lived up to its claims. "Microsoft appears to have made a leap in their attempt to produce viable topological qubits," he said. "If they succeed, they will leap from being a player with no production quantum computer, to being a serious player in the race to make the next generation of fault-tolerant machines."
Microsoft has spent 20 years pursuing an approach to quantum computing known as "topological." The firm's approach to this is based on exploiting the properties of a so-called quasi-particle, which had existed only in theory, since it was first predicted in the 1930s by Italian physicist Ettore Majorana. To do this it had to exploit a novel state of matter - different from the three familiar states of liquid, solid or gas.
Paul Stevenson, a physics professor at the University of Surrey, said the tech giant's timeline sounded plausible - if its research lived up to its claims. "Microsoft appears to have made a leap in their attempt to produce viable topological qubits," he said. "If they succeed, they will leap from being a player with no production quantum computer, to being a serious player in the race to make the next generation of fault-tolerant machines."
When you scale this... (Score:4, Interesting)
"By 2029..." This sounds familiar... (Score:3)
I feel like there's this other technology that's just been a few years away for the last 50+ years... Any day now...
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Hey it will be here in time for my flying car. Just you wait.
and your Mr Fusion
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In particular, isn't Majorana the one where MS had to invent a new type of physics in order to make it look good? Or extend things into seven demensions [*], or some similar trickery?
[*] Yes, that's a deliberate spelling.
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Which will come first?:
1. Practical flying cars
2. Practical fusion energy
3. Robot that do can dishes
4. Useful quantum computer
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Do you mean fusion power? If so, it is worth recognizing that we've made major progress on fusion power with the average predicted time to fusion power going down over time. For example, the triple product, which is an important measure of how effective a fusion system is, has been growing since the 1950s. with a brief pause slowed down in the early 2000s when almost all fusion research money went into ITER and is now increasing again https://www.fusionenergybase.c... [fusionenergybase.com] . Additionally, usion research has be
No, It Won't. (Score:4, Insightful)
No company will release a commercial quantum computer by 2029. No company is ever going to release a commercial quantum computer of any kind. If there is any actual utility to quantum computers beneath the hype, it will be a niche matter at best.
Anyone who wants to disagree with me can do so by betting against me in Kalshi. I will gladly take your money. If you are unwilling to put your money where oyur mouth is, I'm just going to ignore you.
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No company is ever going to release a commercial quantum computer of any kind.
Anyone who wants to disagree with me can do so by betting against me in Kalshi. I will gladly take your money. If you are unwilling to put your money where oyur mouth is, I'm just going to ignore you.
How does one resolve the bolded-text as a bet though? I'll happily make a few dollars on your side of the coin for the 2029 prediction, but you can't realistically make the second statement then tell people who disagree to "just go bet against me on Kalshi".
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Are you certain that this hasn't happened already?
And now, the game is: Go to the government and say, "Look here. We are developing this keen technology that you don't want in the public's hands. We could be persuaded to stop our R&D for a fee. A very large fee."
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There is another theory which states that this has already happened.
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That's not how that works. There are laws about how the US government can go about seizing technologies for national defense concerns. That's not in anyway how that works.
That's before you get to the fact that no quantum algorithm ha sbeen shown to be faster than optimized conventional algorithms. Most theoretical uses for quantum computers don't even have any proposed algorithms at all. The technology is mostly wild speculation and vaporware. Quantum computers should be tossed in the sack with GPTs, NFTs
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My objection is that the technology works as advertised at all. There's no evidence that any quantum algorithm offers any speed or processing advantage over conventional computers. There's no proposed quantum algorithms for breaking strong traditional encryption at all. I'm saying the technology will be niche at best and mostlly vaporware.
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Well, there is some potential that the tech could work, but a) no proof and b) the scaling is so abysmally bad so it will _never_ get to any useful size. Classical computers scaled exponentially for a while, even though that has topped about 10 years ago or so. QCs scale _inverse_ exponentially and that means there is a pretty low number of QBits and calculation lengths you cannot, ever, reach. This universe is too small for that to ever happen.
But, yes. The still current factoring record for a QC is 29 or
Re:No, It Won't. Wait... (Score:2)
Except there are quantum algorithms just waiting for hardware:
The primary quantum algorithms proposed for breaking strong traditional encryption are Shor’s algorithm, which exponentially dismantles asymmetric (public-key) cryptography, and Grover’s algorithm, which quadratically degrades symmetric-key security.
Shor's Algorithm (The Threat to Asymmetric Encryption) Developed by Peter Shor in 1994, this algorithm solves difficult mathematical problems exponentially faster than any classical comput
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No company is ever
Ever? How long shall we wait to see if the bet is settled?
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What are you talking about? You can buy quantum computers from a number of vendors today! You can buy one from IonQ, from Rigetti, IBM, Quantum Motion, and others. Do you mean a "utility scale" quantum computer? You should be more precise with your language.
So when are you sending me the money?
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No company is ever going to release a commercial quantum computer of any kind.
Anyone who wants to disagree with me can do so by betting against me in Kalshi.
Take out "ever", change "release" to "market", and append a specific date more than five years away but within a decade or so and you might get a few takers. But you might also want to qualify what you mean by "commercial", because it is certainly possible to market a product with a price so high that the only organizations able to afford it are governments. Or Elon Musk.
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"No quantum algorithm will be proven (in the meaning of mathematics technical argot) to factor large primes significantly faster (greater than 30% improvement in average processing time) than conventional algorithms by the year 2035."
Is that precise enough for you?
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There are already commercial quantum computers from DWave https://www.dwavequantum.com/ [dwavequantum.com] . They're rather limited, but they exist. But I don't expect them to be general purpose turing complete by 2029 with very many qbits. Possibly by 2035. And I don't expect them to be personal computers until they stop needing to be cooled with liquid gasses (i.e. supercooled). But I wouldn't bet that this will never be possible.
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You can bet against QCs in Kalshi for long-term things? Nice. I think I need to have a look at it.
A thousand times zero... (Score:1)
3 states of matter? (Score:2)
When did we lose a state?
Re:3 states? When did we lose a state? (Score:1)
California joined Canada. The orange thing is now all yours!
MS claims discovery of new particle? (Score:5, Funny)
...the Higgs BSOD
Q-Day (Score:2)
Good Move! (Score:2)
Good move Microsoft. That stock price isn't going to inflate itself you know!
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It may even be true. But the article I read didn't say how many qbits they had on the chip, or what the error rate was.
Oh my! (Score:2)
Hahahaha, no (Score:1)
How long qbits last when you do not run computations with them is completely irrelevant for a QC. It has no use or application. And no, they will not have anything by 2029 that is more powerful than my 40 year old programmable pocket calculator.
quantum isn't all to be expected via performance (Score:1)