AI Will Lead To Labor Shortages, Bezos Says In Optimistic Talk (reuters.com) 96
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Reuters: Artificial Intelligence will lead to labour shortages, not the replacement of humans, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos predicted in a highly optimistic appearance at the VivaTech technology conference in Paris on Wednesday. Bezos put forward a rosy vision of how technology will help humanity, speaking about projects including his space venture Blue Origin and his new AI startup Prometheus, which is aimed at speeding up physical manufacturing. "I know there's a lot of concern that many people have, including many smart people, that AI is going to make humans redundant and so on," Bezos said. "I totally disagree with this point of view. And I think, in fact, AI is going to create a labor shortage."
Half of Americans fear the rise of AI could put them or someone in their household out of work, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found this month. Bezos, the world's fourth-richest person with a net worth around $250 billion, argued that people have "endless" things to do, and are currently limited by barriers that he said AI would lower. One goal of space exploration is to move polluting industries off Earth, said Bezos, whose Blue Origin aims to compete with trillionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX in rockets. "If space travel gets reliable enough and inexpensive enough, and we can get materials from asteroids and near-Earth objects and the moon, then this garden planet can be returned to its pre-Industrial Revolution state," Bezos said.
Half of Americans fear the rise of AI could put them or someone in their household out of work, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found this month. Bezos, the world's fourth-richest person with a net worth around $250 billion, argued that people have "endless" things to do, and are currently limited by barriers that he said AI would lower. One goal of space exploration is to move polluting industries off Earth, said Bezos, whose Blue Origin aims to compete with trillionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX in rockets. "If space travel gets reliable enough and inexpensive enough, and we can get materials from asteroids and near-Earth objects and the moon, then this garden planet can be returned to its pre-Industrial Revolution state," Bezos said.
Re:Correction (Score:5, Interesting)
The elites hate labor shortages. They love labor surpluses.
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"Elites want labor shortages!", "No, Elites hate labor shortages!" ...
No, it's neither of those. It's money and power.
Labor shortages are only bad if you're the one being shorted. If you've got money and power, you have the available labor.
Labor surpluses can be bad if that frees up your trapped employees to go to greener pastures. If you have the green pasture, you win.
If Bezos is trying to sell us on this leading to a labor surplus, then either:
A) he's just speaking his opinions and doesn't care cause he'
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A) he's just speaking his opinions and doesn't care cause he's so rich
B) there's a motive to it
C) he's an elitist pedophile.
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Hehe... that's rsilvergun posting as their AC alter-ego... they claim it's a troll stalking them.
What troll has an index of every post a person has made?
Re: Correction (Score:2)
Ok shortage, where are the labor surpluses? (Score:2)
So what groups of people will be in a job which has a large labor surplus?
And, exactly, what job and how much will their wages go up or down for the tens of millions of people in a job with labor surpluses?
Lastly, what percent of the total jobs will have labor shortages? 1%, 2% ?
And what will the other 98% of the people needing to work, feed themselves, have a place to stay, raise children do for money?
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Only 98%?
Easy, we don't. We starve and die.
Which brings up the big question: with AI running the factories and cranking out metric boatloads of new iPhones or MacBooks... who's going to buy them?
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The elites hate labor shortages. They love labor surpluses.
But Bezos just said it wouldn't, who should I believe: This very successful business man, or the history of successful business men?
Is a normal condition a real "shortage"? (Score:2)
So the vacuous Subject apparently spans about a third of the large discussion? Thanks to the vacuous propagation? There should be a kind of meta-moderation of the discussions. Dare I say correlated to the kinds of FPs? But looking at your [nomadic's] post, your concern is escaping me and a Subject change might have helped.
Anyway, my too-obvious-to-be-insightful reaction and the obligatory joke I am l looking for in response to this topic involves some sort of categorical search constraint. There are ALWAYS
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OR better yet, we can organize and make capital our bitches! Sorry, I mean reduce class stratification between labor and capital.
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Re: Correction (Score:2, Informative)
a simplistic view. Tragedy of the Commons. Network systems are not libertarian.
https://www.scry.llc/2024/12/2... [scry.llc]
Re: Correction (Score:4, Interesting)
You are assuming that a demand will exist for human labor or skill, and that there will always be a skill one can learn or physical labor one can provide,
In the age of robotics and ai as they are being presented, that is a false premise,
Any physical work that can be done by a human today can be done by a robot. If not, explain why,
Any knowledge work that can be done by a human can be done more quickly and potentially much cheaper by an AI.
Writing code? AI is faster and cheaper.
Structural calculation? Why not AI?
Computer design? Why are humans better than AI?
The only real demand for human intellect will be on the leading edge of science, perhaps healthcare, and there are not 8 billion jobs available for that. Maybe a few million.
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Replace the word "any" in your post with "some" and it reads much more rationally.
We're already seeing the bottom drop out in code quality, in those organizations that are really trying to apply AI in the way it's been sold (as a magic bullet to kill labor.)
Maybe quality doesn't matter for some people. There are certainly a lot of "too big to fail" companies who bring shit products to market year after year and never have to worry about competition. But that's not everyone who needs computer software.
Re: Correction (Score:2)
How do you define quality?
If AI evolves over the next couple of years to the point that it quickly generates code from a spec then ideas like software maintenance become obsolete.
Industrial process controls follow a method like this today. There are large libraries of validated software modules that are as symbolic function blocks plugged together in a ladder logic schematic. Lots of stability, efficiency, and high performance/safety levels. Every oil refinery, power plant, and chemical plant opera
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How do you define quality?
If AI evolves over the next couple of years to the point that it quickly generates code from a spec then ideas like software maintenance become obsolete.
Industrial process controls follow a method like this today. There are large libraries of validated software modules that are as symbolic function blocks plugged together in a ladder logic schematic. Lots of stability, efficiency, and high performance/safety levels. Every oil refinery, power plant, and chemical plant operates on such software.
The specs are the engineering part. The coding is not. You can assign people to research algorithms, and develop optimum methods, but why should humans be coding?
You're assuming that AI evolves to the point where every piece of code it outputs works perfectly as intended, with no human interaction needed for testing and troubleshooting. Sure, industrial process controls work the way you described, but only after the pieces were built, tested, and troubleshot extensively. (like you said, "validated") You don't get robust systems fast, especially for the kind of critical systems you described, where if something goes wrong it's a huge deal, like oil refineries, power
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Doesn't have to work perfectly... use the slightly faulty one until the AI churns out a better one, and replace the faulty one with the better one.
Well, if the oil refinery is _only_ staffed by robots and AIs, there's no people to die in the explosion... and, have a robot dispenser onsite, and it can crank out robot after robot to fix the damage from the explosion and replace them as they burn up. Bonus points if the robot _is_ the replacement pipeline (it holds itself in place and other robots come and bo
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Exactly, it might not happen overnight, but we've already seen how fast AI/LLM-AI got better.
So, it's patently impossible to replace Burger Flippin' Joe at McD's, right? 60+ years ago, the guys welding car frames thought their job was secure forever... then, the robot arms came and took over the show.
The Burger Flippin' bot would be easy, especially if you duck taped machine vision onto it and installed an AI on the control cabinet. Hell, the robot could do all the steps to slap your double bacon cheesebu
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And, then you pay union dues, and some backroom late-night deal between the union and the company ensures the company can still do everything it wants, while the union makes sure you get your scheduled breaks.
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That's cynical and is why we can't have organized labor in this country. The propaganda that makes labor organization difficult is real and it comes from the Gipper. From beyond the grave... All but the far-left are under the illusion that organized labor is Jimmy Hoffa and the Teamsters.
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That's the truth... had that exact thing happen at Electrolux (regarding how you gained attendance points back).
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Unless the cost to obtain labor crosses above the cost to automate the labor.
See: all the money being poured into AI.
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They'll still need people to run on the giant hamster wheels to generate the power to run the datacenters.
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How does a labor shortage give them more control?
It gives those with the biggest purses more control over the market.
When labor is in short supply it advantages the laborers as they can choose among competing employers who must offer higher wages or other forms of compensation ...
Case in point. Who can offer higher wages? The guy with more money.
For small businesses, it's awful. Look at how many people Google snapped up back in its heyday, and all the bonuses and stock and such they threw at them. And those people may have even made the right choices with respect to their personal financial gains. That didn't hurt Google.
If one has the money and power, labor shortage or labor surplus can be used to their advantage.
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Re: Correction (Score:2)
What he means is there will be shortages of complaint and low cost experts with specific skills that I cannot yet define
They will use that to fraudulently flood the country with cheap foreign visa labor while laying off hordes of American workers while screaming like stuck pigs about shortages
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I could totally see them doing that.
Oh, wait... haven't they already done that?
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Double correction: It eventually will lead to labor shortages. This year. Or next year. Or eventually. There is no reversing course unless we literally move back into the dinosaur stone ages.
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Well, we could reverse course by hitting the Delete key on all the AIs/LLM-AIs, and go back to five-ten years ago, before someone got the AI feather up their tuchus.
It's so hard to get a good domestic these days (Score:5, Informative)
AI will Lead to a Labor Shortage? (Score:3)
The real question is, where are all these capable and intelligent individuals(the puppet masters) going to come from with this false AI taking over education by design and via cheating.
Many individuals using today's AI might end up dumber and less capable of doing much of anything.
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Yeah, it's got electrolytes.
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How many jobs require intelligence?
Hallucinated out of his ass (Score:5, Insightful)
I think Bezos hallucinated this out of his ass...or at least "generatively created" it.
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It's also a convenient position to espouse in the face of widespread job destruction using AI as an excuse to suppress wages / increase the desperation of ordinary people so they'll work for less.
Re: Hallucinated out of his ass (Score:2)
Tragedy of the Commons. Purely selfish endeavor leads to a systemic failure for everyone
Re: Hallucinated out of his ass (Score:1)
Is that why Linux isn't on the desktop?
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You can be forgiven for mistaking the two given the sheer brazenness of the lie.
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He's just repeating what Claude told him.
Oh wait, excuse me...Alexa+.
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Probably working on an army of murderbots to protect him from the guillotine.
He's always been a piece of shit and always will b (Score:1, Troll)
Artificial Intelligence will lead to labour shortages, not the replacement of humans, [...] One goal of space exploration is to move polluting industries off Earth, said Bezos, whose Blue Origin aims to compete with trillionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX in rockets.
Space exploration, which is *checks notes* much better done by automated systems less fragile than us meatbags. Space manufacturing, same. So he waves around an irrelevant distraction and we're supposed to suck on it? We're not that fucking stupid, Temu Lex Luther.
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LOL Temu Lex Luther (Luthor?)
That's gold.
I don't know what polluting industries Lex thinks he can move to space. Concrete production? Steel mills? Water intensive industries? What pollutes much more than manufacturing I think is things like short-lived consumer products with no re-usability that end up in the trash, in the oceans and waterways, etc.
Building spaceships in space out of space materials makes for good speculative science fiction. Space miners, space truckers, space stations where space truckers
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I don't know what polluting industries Lex thinks he can move to space. Concrete production? Steel mills? Water intensive industries? ...
Aren't the rockets themselves a big fuck you to the environment? Maybe if we send all the billionaires into space that'd get rid of a lot of polution?
If/when we get a space elevator, or some other pipe dream, then *maybe* something? But we're all here, not in space. And in space, getting rid of heat is hard - AI data centers as satellites is a complete fiction. And the moon? That thing is WAAAAY far away. If we need somewhere cold with lots of water, we have a whole continent to use (Antarctica)! And it's S
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Correction: for now, we have Antarctica... in a couple years, not so sure.
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Re: He's always been a piece of shit and always wi (Score:2)
Well, I'm glad at least someone gets it, unlike the chuds who modded me down for not worshipping their golden ass.
Optimism (Score:5, Funny)
Any time a billionaire effectively states the biggest problem facing the masses in the future is too much money I always feel very relieved.
Well... (Score:5, Insightful)
...I work in the R&D dept. in a F500 company. Today we had a meeting with our manager, and discussions were all about AI forthcoming applications in our company. The problem of unemployement caused by AI was raised by one od us, as we feared that somebody could be replaced. Our manager was instead very happy about AI, and she told us that now all her slides and reports are quickly prepared using Copilot AI. We - the employees - looked each other smiling...it was now clear who could be replaced by AI soon.
Managers don't get replaced (Score:1)
There is a subclass of the working class that appear to be managers but are not. These are line workers who have been given the title of manager so that they can be forced to do some of the paperw
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"So far, the dig has revealed 50 tombs of foremen, workmen and their kin. Each is different, like none previously seen by Egyptologists. The labor force dates from the fourth dynasty, when the Pharaohs built the greatest Pyramids, until the sixth, 420 years later in 2150 BC."
Relationships between worker and boss, unlike slave and master, were very close. Foremen had their crews buried beside them.
https://archive.is/Sn0ZH#selec [archive.is]
Hard Disagree (Score:4, Insightful)
It is truly amazing actually, even a bit funny and ironic, is that a valid way of looking at LLMs is: American IT staff have written a program that does the same tasks we shuffled offshore for decades, effectively making them redundant. The empire strikes back.
Re: Hard Disagree (Score:4)
I worked for Infosys and HCL. ChatGPT already exceeds native Indian ability and trustworthiness. Few Americans realize that Indians who come to US are heavily filtered and culturally indoctrinated. They represent the top 5% of Indian society. India will have huge problems soon.
Re: Hard Disagree (Score:4)
Unpopular opinion here though... I thought this outsourcing cycle was actually very beneficial and valuable. I went through many instances of it, and ended up consulting (even recommending!) "outsourcing" programs. I never lost a job to it (all I'll say is it seemed easy to shift what I did to be out of scope, as I would do with AI now). The ultimate problem was pushing through outsourcing before a company had an expertise on how to do it effectively and make it valuable.
It was seen and often implemented as a resource replacement strategy for cost savings: replace expensive onshore coder/admin/etc. with cheap offshore coder/admin/etc. Every instance of doing that at every company ever failed miserably. What some of us figured out early, and most eventually, is that it is a spectacular workload replacement strategy. Most in-house IT staff are very skilled, and without doubt most of them had huge chunks of mindless and repetitive, low-value tasks on their plate. This was huge value creation for onshore people - I'd never outsource to an Indian company ever again, but every new organization I come to and find one of my Tier 2 NOC technicians spending half his day fixing server backup errors that I could actually train one of those Indians to do in a week? Yep, he's not doing that anymore. Shift that work to a junior, or soon enough, AI. You don't fire the tech, you get him to do things much more worthy of his skill and experience. So, I "outsource" regularly now by finding masses of work I can train anyone to do, and either contract it out cheap, hire a new in-house junior employee to train using it, or pretty soon, hand it to AI.
off world we know how that goes (Score:2)
The Internet is a fad (Score:5, Insightful)
this comment will rival Gates' clueless comment that "The Internet Is A Fad".
Bezos apparently has no grasp of history -
https://www.scry.llc/2024/12/2... [scry.llc]
"Keynesian theory is right. The real cause of economic depressions is the mismatch between production time and consumption time which occurs gradually as productivity rises. Governments then create make-work jobs in a haphazard attempt to maintain consumption (equilibrium). Eventually, the impedance mismatch leads to collapse and a new system. We are probably on the verge of that change."
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Just so everyone knows, the link in this post is intended to promote the author's website for his personal benefit. Also, the quote provided is a quote of himself, not any special or interesting authority. More laughable is the absurd use of the word "impedance". Finally, the points made are ignorant of the concept of "rate" or what "productivity" even means. Productivity does not mean more "production time" and more "production time" doesn't mean more "consumption time" is needed. A whole lot of stupi
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this comment will rival Gates' clueless comment that "The Internet Is A Fad".
There's no credible, sourced record of Gates ever saying "the internet is a fad" or anything to that effect.
The historical record actually points strongly in the opposite direction.
In May 1995, Gates wrote an internal memo to Microsoft's executive staff titled "The Internet Tidal Wave," in which he described the internet as something that "changes the rules" and pushed his team to aggressively expand Microsoft's online presence.
That same year, he appeared on the Late Show with David Letterman to promote Mic
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You don't even have to ask if that's the case, we have several public statements from AI CEOs and tech CEOs in general telling everyone to cool it with all the discussion of all the layoffs and unemployment.
They are getting ready to slaughter u
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Also mark my words all CEO without... Any exception are all psychopaths.
Nah. There are plenty of small businesses whose CEOs are normal people. Same with most nonprofit CEOs. I guarantee you won't find very many local arts organizations whose CEOs are psychopaths, for example.
The real problem, IMO, is that corporations are allowed to grow so big that only lunatics are able to run them.
Need more humans (Score:2)
He needs more humans to spin the cranks on the electric generators to power the AI.
I envision an old school giant spindle being turned by men walking in a circle (ala Conan [imdb.com]). Especially favored employees could ride a stationary bicycle-generator.
How much does he pay? (Score:2)
Billionaires bait-n-switch, again (Score:2)
A new technology increases the consumption of raw resources. Thus, money is spent mechanizing the gathering of those resources, usually at great environmental cost. As always, after the infrastructure is built, jobs disappear. Such as, 100 men with shovels and carts being replaced by 5 men with a 400t (capacity) dump-truck
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What new jobs will be created?
That new job certainly won't be a human putting the stuffing in a new version of a teddy bear... the new version of a teddy bear will be robot sewn and stuffed. All the boss has to do is select what product to make from a tablet and the factory will switch over to the newly chosen item and make a hundred thousand for the dirty, starving, dirt-poor masses to buy at $15 each.
(bing)
"Labor shortages have reached historically high levels worldwide, with about 75% of employers strug
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In "The Jetsons", buildings were assembled by a giant robot: While some menial jobs were performed by robots, humans also did menial work by pushing buttons that controlled the robots. (Mr Jetson did that in a factory that made sprockets and gear-wheels.) That in turn, was a warn
how many people did Amazon layoff again??? (Score:2)
"if if if" (Score:2)
Orbital Factories (Score:2)
Orbital Factories are unlikely to employ very many human workers.
Returned to its pre-industrial state? (Score:2)
We could do that *now* if we wanted to. But it costs money. Costs reduce profits. And you don't get to be Jeff Bezos by doing anything that reduces your profits.
Bezos or a Bozo.... (Score:2)
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Both you can Bezos can be right at the same time.
nonsense (Score:2)
AI will not lead to labor shortages. What is leading and will lead to labor shortages is low IQ people having more babies, high IQ people having fewer or no babies, and tons of low IQ immgrants, legal and illegal, all leading to inadequate numbers of people with the aptitude to do the jobs that are actually needed, including mechanics and HVAC techs.
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What prevents a robot from turning a wrench and pulling out the old BEV battery and installing a new one?
Why couldn't a robot install HVAC ducting the same way TBMs build tunnels?
Roto-rooter could be replaced by little robots that crawl the sewer and slither into the sewer drain and chop up the tree roots.
https://underthehardhat.org/ai... [underthehardhat.org]