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France's Heat This Week Was Worse Than a Dire Scenario Imagined For 2050 (msn.com) 154

Posted by EditorDavid from the cruel-summer dept.
There's a deadly, record-breaking heat wave spreading east across Europe, reports the Washington Post — and it's even worse than a dire earlier forecast: The forecast was recorded in 2014 as part of a campaign coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that invited about 60 presenters worldwide to imagine a weather report from the year 2050. In one clip, Ãvelyne Dhéliat from French television network TF1 presented a hypothetical scenario of high temperatures 36 years into the future — during a heat wave in a warmer climate in 2050... One of the maps that Dhéliat shared was lit up in shades of orange, filled with temperature predictions of 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), reaching as high as 43 degrees Celsius (109.4 degrees Fahrenheit).

But it turns out, it didn't take 36 years for those imagined temperatures to be reached — and even exceeded. The heat on Wednesday alone, when the temperature soared as high as 112.3 degrees Fahrenheit (44.3 degrees Celsius), exceeded the 2050 projections in 19 out of 34 locations across mainland France — far sooner than some may have expected. Some places surpassed those hypothetical future temperatures by more than 20 degrees Fahrenheit. It's part of a dramatic shift in heat wave frequency across the country. Half of the heat waves observed since 1947 have occurred since 2010. "By 2100, heat waves could last up to two months continuously," the country's weather agency, Météo-France, said this week.

It was hotter in France on Wednesday than in Las Vegas and Phoenix and just two degrees Fahrenheit shy of what was observed in Death Valley, California. An estimated less than one percent of the planet was hotter than France's hottest place... [T]he heat dome, which will linger into early next week, is only part of the story. This type of extreme heat is becoming more common as the planet warms, especially in Europe.

Climate scientist Robert Rohde said in a post explaining the heat wave's causes that France and Western Europe should expect many more heat waves like this over the coming decades. "This isn't a fluke, but simply part of the new normal," he said.
Thanks to Slashdot reader fjo3 for sharing the news.

France's Heat This Week Was Worse Than a Dire Scenario Imagined For 2050 More | Reply

France's Heat This Week Was Worse Than a Dire Scenario Imagined For 2050

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  • Mon Dieu (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Local ID10T ( 790134 ) <ID10T.L.USER@gmail.com> on Saturday June 27, 2026 @05:55PM (#66213306) Homepage

    The heat was so bad in France that they banned drinking alcohol [theguardian.com] in Paris.

    Imagine telling a Parisian that they cannot drink wine.

    • What is the reason for this?

      • Re:Mon Dieu (Score:4, Insightful)

        by allo ( 1728082 ) on Saturday June 27, 2026 @06:22PM (#66213348)

        Dehydration and general low availability of ambulances probably.

      • Yes, the reason is: lack of common sense.

      • Re:Mon Dieu (Score:5, Informative)

        by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Sunday June 28, 2026 @02:58AM (#66213750)

        What is the reason for this?

        There are many reasons for this. This may have just been in Paris, but banning alcohol consumption during heatwaves at specific events isn't that uncommon. Here's some of the reasons:

        - Alcohol is massively dehydrating, it's a diuretic making you pee far more than normal. Yes it's still a net positive if you drink beer. It's not a net positive if you drink a spirit. But it is far from as hydrating as drinking water or even softdrink.
        - Alcohol drops blood pressure. Heat drops blood pressure. Combining the two puts you at a much higher risk of heatstroke than you would be otherwise. If you have a heart condition you're also at a much higher risk of heart attacks. (Recorded cardiac events typically double in a mild heatwave).
        - Many alcohols do not have electrolytes, beer does, but consuming just wine for example can put you in an electrolyte deficient state when you sweat a lot which can make heatstroke's worse (actually it'll move some heatstroke symptoms to just normal heat exhaustion stage, such as dizziness and loss of attentiveness and that's before you consider the last point).
        - Alcohol impairs judgement. You're less likely to make good decisions, less likely to notice effects of heat stress, less likely to drink when needed, seek shade when needed, etc.

        Actually one of the things which are really good for you in a heatwave is an alcohol free beer. It's hydrating, and heavy in electrolytes (important in heatwave) and many are isotonic. Alcohol free weizen beer is usually served at marathons at the finish line as a recovery drink in Germany.

      • Their emergency rooms were filling up with young people that don't know their limit.

    • Re:Mon Dieu (Score:5, Informative)

      by angel'o'sphere ( 80593 ) <angelo DOT schneider AT oomentor DOT de> on Saturday June 27, 2026 @08:55PM (#66213532) Journal

      In restaurants or at home, you obviously still can drink wine:
      The alcohol ban is intended to stop people buying beer, wine and spirits from shops and drinking them in the street and beside the cityâ(TM)s canals and the Seine.

    • Banned drinking alcohol in public.

  • and lots of people didnt believe it in 2014 (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Matthieu Araman ( 823 ) on Saturday June 27, 2026 @05:56PM (#66213308)

    I remember there was lots of doubt when it was released at the time. And we are far from ready nowadays. it was extremely hot for almost everyone with lots of infrastructure failures. rails, transports, electricity, even air conditioning when it exist

    • The video undercuts itsself (Score:4, Interesting)

      by dinfinity ( 2300094 ) on Saturday June 27, 2026 @06:15PM (#66213336)

      Actually, the video literally contains these captions:
      "Besides, we have already experienced these temperatures. Remember the 2003 heatwave in France. Here are some of the temperatures recorded then: up to 42 degrees in Gourdon and Carpentras, even 44 degrees in Gard, and this was an all-time record."

      Which makes this line from TFS sound stupid: "But it turns out, it didn't take 36 years for those imagined temperatures to be reached"

      Don't get me wrong: I'm not a climate-denier. I'm just saying that this video doesn't support the story very well and pretending it does is bad journalism. I would argue that actual climate-deniers would rather see it as proof that this heat is nothing special, because it was similar in 2003. In that sense, this kind of reporting is probably achieving the opposite of what it intended to do.

      • proof that this heat is nothing special, because it was similar in 2003.
        Not sure what the reading comprehension problem of some people is about: up to 42 degrees in Gourdon and Carpentras, even 44 degrees in Gard, and this was an all-time record."

        This are three cities with exceptional heat in 2003.

        Now it is all of France and all of Germany it is not isolated heat islands in a random unlucky city: it is everywhere. I hope I am back in Thailand before August, if the same weather phenomena that is causing the current heat is happening again: it can only be worse.

        • No need to get snarky. My point was and is that TFA/TFS implies that the video was some apocalyptic prediction of 2050 that nobody thought would come true before then, but that the prediction is actually quite close to a situation that occurred 23 years ago as presented in the video, thereby counterproductively sensationalizing reality.

          Ignoring the negative effects of bad journalism like this is almost as stupid as ignoring the negative effects of climate change.

          Look at the video, TFA/TFS, and my point agai

          • I did not look at any video.

            Actually, I did not notice a video.

            I am reader, not a TV junky.

            A sentence like: look at the video - makes me scroll on.

          • "the prediction is actually quite close to a situation that occurred 23 years ago"

            If by "quite close" you mean significantly different, which you don't and why the snark was justified.

      • Which makes this line from TFS sound stupid

        Someone here sounds stupid, but it's not TFS. This European heatwave is a European heatwave. It's not single datapoints in small isolated locations. Gard may not be the hottest it's been (that record was set in 2019, higher than 2003), but FRANCE has just set a temperature record. Like ALL OF IT. Far higher than the previous 2019 record, and the previous 2003 record. And that's despite Gard missing the record by 4 degrees.

        Also the 2003 record was far more localised, but there's more: It was not only on ave

        • You're attacking a straw man, a belief I explicitly said I do not hold. My point is about the crappy level of journalism, not that this heatwave is the same as the one in 2003.

          Set aside your tribalism and blind rage and engage with my point.

          • I wasn't attacking any belief you had, I was attacking your stupid take claiming an article talking about France is wrong because Gare was a bit chiller than expected. The problem isn't the journalism, it's the reader, that is my point. There's no tribalism or rage here, just your dumb take.

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by gweihir ( 88907 )

      "Doubting" things is easy. And dumb fuck can do it. Verifying them or proving them wrong is hard. Especially when you do not even try ...

  • That book still stays with me and haunts me. I still think it’s the best description of what an actually serious set of responses to climate change would look like that I’ve seen thus far

  • My car registered 125F briefly in Las Vegas (Score:5, Interesting)

    by madbrain ( 11432 ) on Saturday June 27, 2026 @06:09PM (#66213326) Homepage Journal

    Last week-end. It was a temporary sensor error, though. It was closer to 105F. I see 115F at home in the hills in San Jose a few days each year, and that is legit. But both the car and home have very efficient heat pump A/C, so that is not really an issue. The new Carrier heat pump A/C at home, combined with zoning, really sips energy. Just 158 kWh used on cooling since Feb 20. And 194 kWh used on heating, according to the smart stats. The 3 zones that are turned on (though not 24 hours) represent about 2000 sq ft. This includes a large dining room with south facing bay floor to ceiling windows. It's incredibly quiet too. Completely inaudible indoors. Even outdoors, due to it being variable speed, you can easily sit right next to it without being bothered.

    In France, where I grew up, almost no one has A/C at home. And it is impossible to retrofit in most residences. Apartments don't use forced air for heating. They typically use radiators. My mother has floor heating at her apartment i Paris. The only options are window A/Cs. Those are very inefficient and very loud. They are not allowed on balconies in apartment buildings. A few have installed them illegally. But if there were hundreds of window A/Cs per apartment building, they would crack down due to noise. Not sure if the old buildings electric infrastructure could handle it, also.
    In single family homes or townhomes, installing A/C is possible, but very expensive. That's not where most French people live, though. I feel for family members.

    • In Germany "Balcony Power Plants" are a thing.
      Solar plants with or without a small battery, that can be directly plugged into the grid in the house.
      It is limited to 800W plugin, but if you have a battery, it often has an extra plug to directly connect some equipment. In this case an AC would make sense.

      • That would address the grid problem if your balcony has sun. But not the noise problem.

        • There are plenty of simple units that do not make noise. And perhaps it makes a small effect if they are in the shadow of the solar panel.

          Or you use one of the modern inhouse ACs, small boxes that have a water tank, de-humify the air, and have a cold stream of air with tiny water droplets in them. I have no real experience with them indoors.

          However tiny water spray air streams have an astonishing strong cooling effect.

          • Which ones don't make noise ? How do they move the air

            My bedroom was the attic growing up. It got painfully hot in the summer. Insulation was very poor. My father bought one of those AC units with a water tank just for my room. It was effective, but very noisy. You had to refill the tank every day. I'm sure it consumed a lot of electricity

            • Modern ones?

              Sorry, I do not look at the brand of an AC in a beer garden admiring: oh, it does not make noise, I should make a photo to post it on grimdur.org to link it on /.

              Perhaps do a google search: low noise AC or silent AC?

          • There are plenty of simple units that do not make noise.

            Noise complaints due to installation of AC units is a major problem in Germany along with the rest of Europe.

            Or you use one of the modern inhouse ACs, small boxes that have a water tank, de-humify the air, and have a cold stream of air with tiny water droplets in them. I have no real experience with them indoors.

            The technical term for these is "fucking useless ACs", very good at emptying your bank account and little more.

            • Point is: there are plenty of units that do not make noise.

              So pointing to some that do, for an argument, makes no sense.

              The technical term for these is "fucking useless ACs", very good at emptying your bank account and little more.
              Well, as I said. I have no clue about the,. But tech sites like heise.de recommend them highly.

              • sounds like you are describing swamp coolers and they do not work in climates with high humidity like Europe. In very dry places you can make the air cooler by adding humidity and "wind" but once you reach around 50% it no longer works and at the moment we have over 60% indoors here in many places in Europe.

                • Yeah, the interesting thing is:
                  there are some that dehumidify the room air, but still add "mist" to the exhaust.

                  I saw a cheap one, lol. I am tempted to buy one jus to test if it even works!

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Houses in Europe were built for a different climate. Changing them now is going to be tricky, but we will have to find ways of doing it. For apartments that probably means lots of AC boxes on the roof and additional pipework on the outside.

    • The only options are window A/Cs.

      That's not so true anymore. There's plenty of cooling options coming to the market to retrofit in European style homes. Firstly heatpumps are typically retrofitted for central heating, and critically they can provide cooling. However the limiting factor is condensation on radiator lines. But a 2 friends and a work colleague have ones capable of cooling:
      - Underfloor heating combined with insulation of the lines. It only sets the floor to 19C to avoid condensation but it's amazing how much having a physical s

    • The new Carrier heat pump A/C at home, combined with zoning, really sips energy.

      Which model are you referring to?

      Just 158 kWh used on cooling since Feb 20.

      My heat pump used that much between Feb 20 and Feb 24.

      And it is impossible to retrofit in most residences.

      If you can drill a hole through the wall you can retrofit with a minisplit. There's also window shakers and floor standing portables. Though I don't recommend the latter.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by madbrain ( 11432 )

        It's a Carrier 27VNA348A0003 .

        It used 32 kWh between Feb 20 - 24 . A lot of that was the very first day. The gas furnace had died in January. We used a space heater for about a month, which consumed 680 kWh (measured by monitoring smartplug). It only heated the 6000 cu ft master bedroom, so the cats wouldn't be cold. All the other areas were quite cold, which is why the heat pump worked hard the first day. We were on vacation abroad during the furnace outage so having most rooms cold wasn't that big of a de

  • Which means climate change aka global warming isn't real, amirite?

  • Far from ideal (Score:4, Interesting)

    by stabiesoft ( 733417 ) on Saturday June 27, 2026 @09:22PM (#66213562) Homepage
    It just strikes me as odd that we have clear examples of heating up the world and yet we go full carbon ahead on accelerating it even more with AI building out huge DC's that are going to be run on Nat Gas. Chevron just signed a deal for W TX to supply power from Nat Gas as an example. And even on the margins we have spacex building a nat gas pipeline so they can lob a rocket daily. Each lob spends around 600 thousands gallons of methane according to engadget. Not a huge amount, around 1% of TX daily gasoline consumption by volume. Not sure if gasoline or liq nat gas is more carbon dense though. And lest we forget, the crypto miners are still in action. It is almost like we just want to get it over and annihilate ourselves.

    On second thought maybe that is the plan, lex luther style. The ultra wealthy will move up/down to the Artic/antartic, the rest of us will cook, and they will deploy robot staff in their fortresses.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Whibla ( 210729 )

      Not sure if gasoline or liq nat gas is more carbon dense though.

      Taking gasoline as pure octane, C8H18, i.e. ignoring all the additives that are generally added, and nat gas as pure methane, CH4, then:

      By weight (1 kg):
      gasoline contains ~0.84 kg of carbon
      liq nat gas contains ~0.75 kg of carbon

      By volume (1 L):
      gasoline contains ~0.64 kg/L of carbon
      liq nat gas contains ~0.35 kg/L of carbon

  • They redid the exercise in 2022, adjusted with newest knowledge. The forecast got considerably hotter. Still got beat yesterday.
    https://x.com/TF1Info/status/1... [x.com]

    That 2014 forecast had already been beat in 2022.

    #fasterthanexpected

  • Instead of 5% of GDP to war. This shows where our priorities really are. Time to wrap Ukraine war up and both sides need to bring realistic expectations to the peace table. Why stop when Russia is on the back foot ... or is it asking for escalation says John Mearsheimer https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

  • Learn it, know it, live it.

  • Because it's an el nino year. Last 3 hottest recorded temps in Oregon were all el nino years, even going back to the early 1900's. It's the definition of climate anomalies. I bet the alarmist types that said we'd be underwater by 2020 will be real quiet the first non-el nino year we get.

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