US Life Expectancy On Track To Reach Record High (cnn.com) 132
The US age-adjusted death rate fell to a record low in 2025, likely pushing life expectancy to a record high as overdose deaths declined and mortality improved across all age groups. CNN reports: There were about 689 deaths for every 100,000 people in the US in 2025, according to a new report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- the lowest rate recorded in more than a century of tracking. The age-adjusted rate has fallen 22% since 2021, landing about 4% lower than it was just before the pandemic in 2019. [...] The top causes of death in the US in 2025 followed longstanding patterns: Heart disease led with nearly 695,000 deaths, followed by cancer with nearly 623,000 deaths.
Unintentional injuries, which includes drug overdoses, were the third leading cause of death. Overdose deaths are still high -- about 70,000 people died from an overdose in 2025, preliminary CDC data shows -- but experts say that sharp declines probably played a large role in bringing the age-adjusted death rate down in the US.
Unintentional injuries, which includes drug overdoses, were the third leading cause of death. Overdose deaths are still high -- about 70,000 people died from an overdose in 2025, preliminary CDC data shows -- but experts say that sharp declines probably played a large role in bringing the age-adjusted death rate down in the US.
But... (Score:3)
I thought everbody who sits for more than 30 minutes was dying of cancer.
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The fact that we're even compiling the stats on that is why the life expectancy is going up.
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But is it being compiled while sitting down or standing ?
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I thought everbody who sits for more than 30 minutes was dying of cancer.
It was a 10% change, which in a study of that type is very difficult to distinguish from noise. As often with statistics, this applies: https://xkcd.com/2400/ [xkcd.com]
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Lets all take note here: A single study that shows a 10% correlation, gets routed through a slashmoron and get turned into
everbody who sits for more than 30 minutes was dying of cancer.
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Whooosh!
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the number of deaths and serious injuries caused by the mRNA shot itself.
How many deaths and serious injuries were caused by the mRNA shot itself?
It's very clear you don't understand basic science, things like "gathering data" are difficult for you.
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We're all dying from something to some extent. For example, I'm dying on the inside reading these comments.
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Please do us a favour and don't think. It's not working well for you.
Yes but we're all going to die (Score:5, Funny)
I have it under good authority doing months of Facebook related research while pooping that everyone who had the COVID-19 vaccine is going to die in 2026. The BBC reported on it so it must be true. At least a Facebook post reposted an X post that claimed the BBC had an article which reported on it, so surely that must be true.
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That's so sadly true-to-life that laughter is the only sane response. Still, I feel a bit guilty about laughing.
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what about people who got the vaccine while pooping?
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Shit, I'm screwed then.
Just don't ask how it happened...
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Was ivermectin involved?
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judging by the number of freedom-loving patriots claiming to be rid of their "rope worms", i'd say so
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AD or BC? This matters. If Bill Gates is a time-travelling reptile from the Pleiades, and put chips into vaccines, it could be that all who took the vaccine will be spirited back into the Bronze Age and offered up as human sacrifices.
The truth is way out there.
I'm not an epidemiologist but (Score:5, Interesting)
My guess would be that the recent pandemic that devasted so many populations across the globe may have something to do with the mathematics behind this.
If lots of people died a few years earlier than they would otherwise have done, then that would pull life expectancy downwards temporarily.
Following that, the survivors will on average appear to live longer, pushing apparent life expectancy above normal.
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Unfortunately the government statistics are less reliable than they've ever been.
Some are, some aren't. Death rates are one of those things that are harder to fake. You can't just redefine death on a sliding scale of unaliveness.
Will it continue? (Score:5, Insightful)
One might expect a decrease in the death rate (even age-adjusted) after a pandemic, as a disproportionate number of unhealthy people will have already died. So it will be interesting to see if this continues.
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One would think so. However, life expectancy didn't drop very much, if at all, due to COVID. https://www.macrotrends.net/gl... [macrotrends.net]
Interesting (Score:2)
I'll just wait here for my app-summoned mobility scooter...
Re: Interesting (Score:2)
We prevented enough disease and needless death so people love longer. We made a weight loss drug so them lard tubs are gonna manage to simply be overweight...and perhaps in the not too distance future we'll get some kind of intelligence boosting drug so we can all watch TV guzzling 2L bottles of fizzy drinks, eat some kind of sawdust masked by synthetic flavours and become smarter.
...in the future, will people OD on brain pills?!
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We prevented enough disease and needless death so people love longer. ...
Awww that's so sweet :-)
Economy (Score:2, Troll)
Optimistic and false picture (Score:3, Insightful)
The following is also true . People born in the 1970s may represent one of the first generations for whom continued increases in life expectancy can no longer be taken for granted. Unless climate change, air pollution, healthcare, and public health challenges are effectively addressed, future generations could experience lower life expectancy than their parents in some regions, and potentially globally under severe scenarios.
The report ignores the elephant in the room that will lead to many more premature and unexpected deaths. Climate Breakdown.
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I'm not sure your hypothesis is supported by the numbers. Except for a five-year period from 2013-2018, life expectancy has continued to go up, even during COVID.
https://www.macrotrends.net/gl... [macrotrends.net] That drop in life expectancy is thought to have been largely due to opioid overdoses, which have been dropping in recent years. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/a... [nih.gov]
Sad that news... (Score:2)
GLP1 - The Ozempic Effect (Score:4, Interesting)
While clearly awesome for weight loss, much of the "beyond" benefit is still being untangled as either a direct drug effect versus downstream consequence of the weight loss and metabolic improvement itself. Many clinicians describe seeing improvement across cardiovascular and metabolic comorbidities "probably due to both weight loss and direct effect of the medication. Most of the newer findings are associational, not proven cause-and-effect.
With estimated 50million US having been on GLp1's in the last 5 years, that more than accounts for the bump in life expectancy.
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It's not the drug itself, it's what you do when on it. Specifically you significantly reduce what you eat. You get all those same benefits simply by fasting.
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Pain & Motivation: A mouse study showed GLP-1s can ease pain and reduce the motivation to exercise
Yes, one study [nih.gov] found that semaglutide reduced motivation to exercise in mice. [Preprint] "... the long-acting GLP-1R agonist semaglutide (SG) suppresses voluntary wheel running in both lean and diet-induced obese mice. Importantly, this suppression of activity was not caused by hypophagia and was accompanied by decreased motivation, with SG-treated mice displaying reduced effort for wheel access in a progressive ratio task. Real-time measurements of dopamine via fiber photometry revealed specific dopamine
Progress, but still behind (Score:4, Informative)
The US life expectancy now is about 79. England is 81. The world's highest is about 86 (either Monaco or Hong Kong), but they have the advantage of being a micro city state. If you ignore those and look at countries that actually have rural areas, then it drops to about 84 (Japan, Switzerland, S Korea, depending on the year).
The US is about #55 out of 200 odd countries. Not bad, but nothing to brag about.
In my personal opinion, the US's life expectancy being lower than England is proof positive our health care system needs a lot of work. Our culture is relatively similar, it's not about a better diet.
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In my personal opinion, the US's life expectancy being lower than England is proof positive our health care system needs a lot of work. Our culture is relatively similar, it's not about a better diet.
Never fear, the UK-US trade deal [theguardian.com] is working on bringing UK's life expectancy to US's level !
Life support (Score:2)
When I read the headline the first image that popped into my head was rows of vegetables on life support.
250 years old (Score:2)
Salt intake will reduce life expectency (Score:2, Informative)
And that's just what the Social Security Administration wants. Overdosing on sodium is a killer.
Processed foods such as canned soup, canned vegetables, frozen dinners, and contain too much sodium. In order to avoid that, you need to cook everything from scratch. A lot of people who work for a living don't have the time to do this.
Salt is added to canned and frozen foods in order to preserve them, and to also mask the taste of the low grade ingredients used.
Salt is a very inexpensive spice, and the American
Re:Decreased obesity (Score:5, Insightful)
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For example, this study [jamanetwork.com] comparing Holocaust Survivors lifespans to control group in Israel demonstrated that while Holocaust survivors had more chronic health conditions, "mean age at death was significantly higher in the survivor group compared wi
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It makes sense though. Hard times make for resilient people and easy times make for fragile people. If you've never had much adversity in your life, then when you do eventually have to deal with something, it's more difficult then if you've been dealing with hardship your entire life.
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Survivorship bias. The ones that were easier to kill died off. The hardier stock survived.
Recently, we had COVID. Those who were fragile (or nearing their expiration date) did not make it. Those who survived are likely to live on for a bit longer.
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That is a simplification. We had some very healthy people here get very sick from Covid around here, sick enough they barely survived with a lot of medical help. It was theorized that genetics had a large influence with sickly people with the right genes easily defeating Covid and healthy people without those genes having a hell of a time.
It's an advantage of having a very diverse population, good odds of some having some degree of natural immunity.
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Lets put it like this: You have to compare 80 years of biography to find out. Right now, people dying did not experience the Great Depression and the Second World War, which gives them a large boost compared to people living 10 years early. We might see the effect of Microplastic in 50 years time.
Microplastic already exists in 100% of male testes. If you think we haven’t seen the effect yet, have a Millennial talk to GenAlpha.
Then have GenX remind Millenials that we actually thought they represented the worst we could possibly get.
One can be dumb and live quite long. In a society built by Dumb, for Dumber.
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Birth rates are at record low since WW2:
www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/birth-rate
So there are fewer people, but they are living longer.
Which is probably the balance required, and probably explains WHY they're living longer too.
Re:Decreased obesity (Score:4, Informative)
Birth rates are at record low since WW2:
And yet they still outpaced the death rate.
FTS: "There were about 689 deaths for every 100,000 people in the US in 2025,"
Per the CDC, in 2024 there were 1070 births per 100,000 people in the US.
Personally, I'd be shocked if the COVID years weren't responsible for some of this. It took the lives of the weak and vulnerable at a much greater rate than those that were healthy. Otherwise, many of those folks would still be with us today (and dying off over time).
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The majority of covid deaths were people past 65. It's all in the CDC numbers if you look it up. Covid deaths fall of sharply when you get below 50 and are a rounding error for those under 20.
Millions of seniors dying doesn't really affect the people making babies, at least not in a physical sense. Now, many of those babymakers have their reasons for opting out of that idea, but covid is just one part of that mess. I'm sure housing, climate change, politics and social media, the cost of living and micro-pla
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living longer doesn't mean living healthier. i do a lot of work in & around hospitals and each year there are many more oldies in wheelchairs or scooters, many with missing limbs, than what i recall from 25 years ago.
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they would still have had to come to the hospitals for tests & physio. there are plenty who can't leave the house as our affiliates who provide in-home nursing visits and PSWs can attest.
also the number of older people over 60 that are obese has increased dramatically in recent decades from 15% in the 1970s to over 40% today and not by a small amount per person.
that exacerbates dozens of common serious health conditions
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Actually, the "youth" (50) death statistics were the worst thing about America's response to COVID.
Canada had about 1/3 the death-rate that America had...overall, through most of the pandemic. (I followed from March 2020 to March 2022).
But among people under the age of 50, it was SEVEN times as bad as Canada's. Canada lost just 1100, under age 50, during those two years.
An equivalent for the USA population would 9X as much, or just 10,000. America actually lost over 70,000 citizens under the age of
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Personally, I'd be shocked if the COVID years weren't responsible for some of this. It took the lives of the weak and vulnerable at a much greater rate than those that were healthy. Otherwise, many of those folks would still be with us today (and dying off over time).
The majority of covid deaths were people past 65. It's all in the CDC numbers if you look it up. Covid deaths fall of sharply when you get below 50 and are a rounding error for those under 20.
Millions of seniors dying doesn't really affect the people making babies, at least not in a physical sense. ...
I think you missed my point. Millions of seniors dying a bit early DOES impact the statistics in the handful of years following it; They *would* have died and contributed to those numbers later.
To put another way, I was not implying that the COVID related deaths had a noticeable impact on the birth rate.
Re:Decreased obesity (Score:5, Interesting)
How can this be? Climate is killing everyone, air pollution is worse, microplastics is worser, everyone is so poor that they can't eat, everything that trump or musk does is fatal, every single thing is linked to icreased death. Erm /sarc
Because we've got all the low hanging fruit like preventable diseases in childhood, dangerous products, toxic pesticides, et al. But don't worry, Trump and the Anti-Vaxxers are working tirelessly to bring back such wonderful easily preventable diseases as Polio, Measles, Rubella and if they can manage it, Smallpox.
It should be noted this is a record for the US... which is still lower than almost all other developed nations.
For those who aren't idiots, I'm sure I don't need to explain that the biggest factor is the reduction in infant, child and young adult mortality as people under 25 dying in larger numbers skew the statistics downwards.
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More likely an increase in post-covid vaccination rates.
Re:Decreased obesity (Score:5, Informative)
Calm down grasshopper. What's being "said" (keep an eye on statistics instead of inflating percentages into everybody) is that taking away many peoples' healthcare (in favor of tax breaks for the wealthy) does not make many people healthier, it makes them more unhealthy and poorer. Everything that el Bunko and Elmo do *sometimes* (more often than should be) make people dead or sick. Cutting minuscule foreign aid kills scores in Africa. Pissing it off on Israel killed scores of Palestinians.
la Presidenta is cutting rules and regs on pollutants. I presume in your book that pollutants do not kill people or make them sick. Then you'll be wanting to cozy up to that coal fired power plant that is now allowed to spew more mercury into the environment. You do recall mercury from HS chemistry, yes? Okay, no. So look it up.
One can go through the list of el Bunko's EOs. They have two defining features: they are bad for Americans' health and they benefit he and his crime family. Elmo is not far behind but his reach is smaller.....now. That little fucking Nazi has every intention of tell everyone else how live and his Silicon Valley fellow travelers (Thiel, Ellison, Altman, etc.) are right behind him. Bezos is bringing up the rear. You are mere cannon fodder to their schemes.
If you want to see how the proles are doing, pay attention to credit card debt and how many jobs they must work to make ends meet. Jesus, and stop whinging about how mistreated is the Epstein class.
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It seems that you've been modded down. I'm guessing that some snowflake who's lining up for still more red-orange Kool-Aid got his fee-fees hurt by your facts.
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Yeah, dead Africans and Middle Easterners doesn't change the USA life expectancy. Dead Africans and dead Middle Easterners does change the global life expectancy, but we're talking specifically about the US life expectancy.
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Re:Decreased obesity (Score:5, Informative)
How can this be? Climate is killing everyone, air pollution is worse, microplastics is worser, everyone is so poor that they can't eat, everything that trump or musk does is fatal, every single thing is linked to icreased death. Erm /sarc
In the event that you don't know/understand the answer already, I'll try to illustrate it.
Imagine life-expectancy is say... 80 years and there are exactly 3 causes of death named A, B, and C with evenly-distributed probability.
Imagine we eliminate CoD A entirely. That changes odds of dying of CoD B or C from 33% to 50%.
Imagine also that by eliminating CoD A it adds an average of 5 years of life before death, putting L-E at 85 years.
Imagine we start injecting people with a lightly toxic substance (metaphor for microplastics etc), which damages the body but doesn't kill. Say that knocks 3 years off the average lifespan, dropping L-E to 82 years.
All of the things you're reading about can be true at the same time because words mean things. Bad things are bad, and the take-home is that the bad things are what is keeping things from being better than they are. As another illustration, getting a raise is a good thing, someone making a shitty decision that drives up inflation is a bad thing, and it's possible for you to have marginally more buying power after the two but the shitty decision still sucks.
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It is still worthy of saying woooosh if the person literally signs off their post with a sarcasm tag?
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It is still worthy of saying woooosh if the person literally signs off their post with a sarcasm tag?
I hear you. I've addressed this in my reply to the AC above. In this case no wooshing required.
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The only thing a seasoned American read here, was a marketing campaign for microplastics.
With guaranteed Federal approval.
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In the event you don't know /sarc is short for sarcasm, I'll try to illustrate it.
Take everything they said and reverse the meaning entirely.
Notice how you're just repeating exactly what they said sarcastically?
I'd say "woosh" but I doubt that word will carry any meaning anyway
I don't normally reply to ACs but this one is worth it.
Yes. Sarcasm indicates opposition to the statements being made. However that means the person I replied to doesn't believe climate change etc are harmful. Which they are.
When you tell a teenager to do something - for instance putting on their seat belt - they often reply sarcastically with things like "yeah, because we're totally going to get in an accident and I'm going to get flung out the window. As if." They don't believe what they are sayi
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Necromancy, or something.
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Re:Decreased obesity (Score:4, Informative)
People stopped smoking.
TRUE! That has got to be contributing.
* US Cigarette sales dropped over 70% from early 1980's to 2022 (628b down to 173b). (I can't find good stats past 2022).
* Number of smokers in the US dropped 44% from 1980 to 2022 (51.6m down to 28.8m).
* All while advertising went up! $1.2b in 1980 to $8b in 2022.
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That is one factor for sure, but there are many things that contribute to this. Cancer remains a top cause of death and we have gotten far better at catching and treating it earlier.
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Elon Musk murdered 8 million children (Score:2, Informative)
As for the orange pedophile the effects of his actions don't really kick in until after the midterms because he doesn't want you to know what he did to you. We did take millions of people off their health care so we could squeeze billionaire tax cuts through the reconciliation process and get past the filibust
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The people in charge of compiling the statistics have been fired and replaced by stooges.
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"air pollution is worse"
not in Western countries, not even close to what i remember and it was fairly mild compared to many other places where my relatives lived
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Statistics have anomalies. And the death-rate is misleading anyways.
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The national murder rate has been declining since 1993. Some attribute that to Roe v. Wade.
Re:How about stating the obvious.... (Score:5, Insightful)
I attribute it down to mostly the elimination of leaded gasoline. 18-20 years after use drops, crime drops as well.
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Japan's death rate is about half what's cited here at about 12,000 per 100,000. Eu's is about 1,000, or about 2/3 higher.
Any more questions you could answer in three seconds at your favorite search engine?
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The death rate is misleading. Actual life-expectancy wise, the US is dead last last in the west with 77/81 (M/F) years, Germany is 79/83, Japan is 81/87.
In the US, even the rich do not have life-expectancy much better. A possible explanation is constant high stress, which seems to be a systematic problem in the US. The statistics do not really seem to support that, but they may not be asking the right questions.
Source for life expectancy: https://www.healthsystemtracke... [healthsystemtracker.org]
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I doubt it's stress. It likely has more to do with adequate funding. If healthcare is fully funded for everyone - not just emergency care - there will be a much larger number of providers employed vs the patchwork system we have where many people can fall through the tracks. This affects even people with good insurance coverage, or wealthy ones that can fully pay out of pocket. When public funding is reduced, such as through last year's OBBBA, many hospitals end up closing due to uncompensated care. In an e
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I doubt it's stress. It likely has more to do with adequate funding. ... you are much more likely to die than if it's 10-20 minutes away, regardless of economic status.
For all its faults, the healthcare system and its funding in the US does not explain the life expectancy numbers. Consider that Hispanic migrants are among the longest lived residents of the US. If you look at the data, you'll see the damage is done before people come in contact with the healthcare system.
- The U.S. has vastly higher rates of firearm-related homicides and suicides, motor vehicle accidents, and accidental drug overdoses.
- The U.S. suffers from higher rates of obesity, Type 2 diabetes, and
Re: How close (Score:2)
Those are all good points. The inferior access to healthcare is still an important factor, even though it's not the top one.
Priorities need adjusting (Score:2)
The USA needs funded government programs to bring up the 4 years that men live less long than women on average so that they are about equal.
Endlessly dismissing with "men don't go to the doctor", "men don't eat right", and other "men need to step up" has not helped.
The government funded programs need to work for men, for men's health issues, mental health issues and not be run from a "what helps women or works for women" agenda.
2022 Life Expectancy - from https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]
86.3 - Women - Asia
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Hmm. Maybe. So the wealthy think they are not affected by a for-profit (and hence bad) healthcare system, but they are. Well, intuitively, this is plausible. It could also mean that the wealthy get worse, more greedy MDs (think of the idiot that killed Michael Jackson), that actually do a worse job generally in health maintenance.
Definitely an interesting question and a complex one. Although the base stress level in the US (and that basically affects everybody) seems to be significantly higher than in Europ
Re: How close (Score:2)
There are always going to be some bad MDs, whether they are concierge medicine practicioners or not.
Infectious disease rates are higher in a system where so many lack access. This was evident with COVID-19. There were also far higher AIDS death in the US than Europe, before working treatments became available.
Most years, the ID rates are no a high ranking factor. But during pandemics, a non universal system does very poorly.
Re: How close (Score:2)
I left Europe for the US at 20. I just turned 50. I think my stress level would have been higher if I didn't move, because my career prospects would have been much more limited in Europe than Silicon Valley. This is all very personal, though. Stress levels in Europe may well be lower on average. But i don't think they are a significant factor in life expectancy differences.
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I think more research is needed. We may get that in the next years. Or not.
Playing games with statistics will kill you! (Score:2)
If you have to feed the trolls/sock-puppets can't you at least resist propagating vacuous Subjects? May I even suggest going for Funny, though my Subject is only an example for extra unfunny values of funny.
But the actual problem with the clickbait headline was still the scope of the statistic. It's a local American record, not the world stage. I actually think that cost should be considered, so the joke is that in spite of spending so much more than Cuba, it is doubtful that this will push the American ave
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propagating vacuous Subjects
Just out of interest, do you generally use the desktop or the mobile version of the site? I only ask because I think you have complained about "vacuous" subject lines on several occasions, whereas it's not something I would give any thought to when typing a reply. I wonder whether the presentation style makes it look either important (you), or barely noticeable (me).
You will notice I have not gone to any effort to change this subject line, either :)
The Subject is a meaningles meta-diversion! (Score:2)
I think the Subject should reflect the comment. If the topic of the discussion or the focus has changed, then the Subject can help indicate where and why.
The best Subjects help readers understand the main point the author wants to focus on, but I also think it's reasonable to set up a joke with a Subject. I think the vacuous Subjects basically encourage people like you to devalue the entire idea of using Subjects in constructive ways to help readers. Call it a kind of lazy writing, though I think it's often
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Any more questions you could answer in three seconds at your favorite search engine?
Yes. https://www.google.com/search?... [google.com]
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You could spell-check that... ya know?
Oh, and who's socialist?
Re: How close (Score:2)
Further behind than ever since the rise came from Danish pharmaceuticals
Re:How close (Score:4, Informative)
US is somewhere in the middle of the range that EU member nations occupy. Similar to France, lower than Germany.
No. The US is a lot lower than the EU and also a lot lower than France.
EU average is 81.7 years, US average is 79 years. France is at 83 years. The US is about on the level of Estonia, Croatia or Turkey. Not something to aspire to.
References:
- https://www.healthsystemtracke... [healthsystemtracker.org]
- https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/... [europa.eu]
- https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fasta... [cdc.gov]
Re:How close (Score:5, Informative)
Life expectancy and death rate are not the same thing. The US has a younger population than, e.g. Spain, so it has a lower death rate (this year at least) despite also have a lower life expectancy.
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Exactly. I think the death rate metric is being used to give the appearance of the US not being as bad as it is. There is no other reason I see why an indirect (and incomplete) metric like the death rate would be used, when quite direct and clear life expectancy numbers are easily available.
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Americans don't generally compare themselves to other countries. This article is no different. Death rate is a fairly concrete, immediately available metric. Life expectancy (at birth) is obviously something that has to be estimated since it's talking about things that are going to happen decades in the future.
Provided the death rate isn't too much affected by the COVID loss of a disproportional number of older people, the US death rate looks like it's come back down to it's previous trend line of long-term
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Americans don't generally compare themselves to other countries.
Probably. One reason why they are soooo far behind the rest of the west in many things, yet are convinced they are ahead. Essentially mass-delusion, since the information is readily available today.
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https://www.worldometers.info/... [worldometers.info]
Monaco comes out on top with 86.73
And of the larger countries with high rank Japan is in fourth place with 85.15
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Interesting. Definitely a better reference than mine.
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Age is not taken into account. These countries have different demographic profiles. So, what's the relevance of this data to life expectancy ?
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This metric is misleading. It is used to make the US not look as bad as it is. The numbers I quoted are solid and not misleading.
Re: How close (Score:2)
The article talks specifically about mortality rate. So I offered a comparison and pointed out the problem with that metric. And then you jumped on my post basically agreeing with me in a disagreeable way. I don't know what to say man
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Hadn't you heard? If Trump's plans work out then many of the people who would vote against him won't be on the voter rolls, and/or will have their votes invalidated or disappeared.
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Even after all this time, I am somehow surprised that the compromised Supreme Court had to incur Trump's wrath to protect him from trying to fix the election in ways that would disproportionately disenfranchise his own base.
Two generations from now, it will be a struggle to convince students any of this actually happened. It's just too stupid to be credible even as I'm living through it.
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Credit to you for being a racist MAGGOT who thinks that fentanyl or "illegals" have even the slightest impact on these figures.